The 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts featured many traded picks (12 over the three years) but delivered great riches in the first round and three NHL defensemen in 2015’s depth rounds. The 2016 draft was supposed to be the one that stocked all the shelves: The Oilers had their first three picks, plus two extra thirds in which to enrich the system. That was four long years ago, and the Oilers are desperadoes waiting for the train.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- New Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- New Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- New Lowetide: Examining Matt Benning’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Legendary Oilers PA announcer Mark Lewis discusses his temporary comeback
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s bet on Andreas Athanasiou and how Oilers will proceed
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- Lowetide: Oilers’ William Lagesson may benefit from extraordinary circumstances
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
THE 2016 DRAFT
It’s vital for the Oilers to get something from this draft. Nine selections, five inside the top 91, and Tyler Benson’s seven games last year were the extent of overall contributions for the 2016 Edmonton draft.
If Holland can get Jesse Puljujarvi under contract, that’s a win. An immediate result would be (imo) that one of Zack Kassian-Kailer Yamamoto-Josh Archibald-Alex Chiasson would be dealt. My guess is Chiasson. Anyway, JP’s NHLE this season is 82, 16-19-35 which is probably second line production. So the depth chart might in fact be (in terms of points) Yamamoto-Puljujarvi-Kassian-Archibald. That would be a big step forward for the wayward 2016 draft.
Tyler Benson told us more about himself this year, some good, some bad. I’ve mentioned before, some worry about the goals but it’s clear he can play a physical game, win battles and pass the puck like ringing a bell. His NHLE (82, 8-23-31) suggests top-9 forward and maybe the Oilers grab a veteran center like Erik Haula and run Benson with Puljujarvi for a year.
Markus Niemelainen led his Liiga team (Assat) in five on five ice time during 2019-20, and played a lot on the penalty kill. His NHLE (82, 1-4-5) puts him in the Martin Marincin family of shutdown defensemen with very little punch. I’m not sure he has an NHL future, we’ll see him in the AHL when Bakersfield plays again.
Matt Cairns is another big defensive defenseman, just finished his junior season for Cornell. His senior season would be 2020-21, but the whole hockey world is up in the air. I don’t see him being signed based on his current resume.
Filip Berglund was the third rounder I was most interested in on draft weekend. He is signed but had planned to stay one more year in the SEL. Berglund’s NHLE (82, 5-14-19) is the most impressive among the defensemen and his defensive game has improved over time.
Dylan Wells, Graham McPhee, Aapeli Rasanen and Vincent Desharnais appear unlikely to make the grade. Wells is under contract but my guess is he’s dealt in one of those trades where someone from the 50-man gets included to make things even (Angus Redmond).
I can never, ever complain about this draft. No less than six players were on my final list.
Lowetide’s Here comes the sun 2016 draft day ranking: No. 3 Jesse Puljujarvi; No. 34 Tyler Benson; No. 61 Filip Berglund; No. 108 Markus Niemelainen; No. 112 Aapeli Rasanen; No. 145 Matt Cairns.
PRONMAN’S ORGANIZATIONAL LIST
The reason I thought of the 2016 draft when reading Corey’s 2020 organizational piece (it is here) is how little has been accomplished. Now. The 2015 draft experienced a breakout in 2019-20, perhaps Puljujarvi and Benson emerge this coming season and Berglund in 2021-22. Edmonton needs this draft to produce an actual NHL player.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We hit the airwaves at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Corey Pronman from The Athletic will join us at 10:20 to chat about the Oilers pipeline. His article was very revealing in terms of what he (and some in the industry) feel about the Oilers current prospects. Carlan Gay from NBACanada.com will join us to talk about an historic 24 hours in sports and what we may see today. Frank Seravalli from TSN will pop in at 11 to talk about the NHL’s decision to play yesterday and what we might see today. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. This is going to be a difficult but necessary day.
I bet you do. I was a bit too young to have even heard of them but must have been a great time as certainly a very interesting crew. You should watch the documentary if you haven’t already.
The only reason you trade Russell is for cap relief before the season starts. Otherwise you keep him for the playoff push in case of injuries, unless we don’t make the playoffs of course.
I don’t think that Russell being tradeable at the deadline is a reasonable factor in this analysis.
I don’t disagree that he would indeed likely be tradeable at the deadline but I don’t agree that Holland will include that as a positive in his analysis.
To the extent the Oilers are in a playoff position, there is all but zero chance that Holland will sell any of his d-men, even a depth d-man. In fact, probably the opposite of what he’d do. We saw petty darn clear evidence of how much Holland values depth at D, at all times and going in to the playoffs, this trade deadline with the Green acquisition.
To the extent that Russell is being moved at the deadline, well, I’m quite confidant that would mean the season has gone very very poorly.
His signing bonus has already been paid – 2020 bonuses that were due in July were paid.
He is a $1.5M cash outlay from here on out.
and this is the likely scenario – a Lucic for Neal type deal but, in this case, anchor contract d-man for anchor contract forward (or maybe goalie if we can convince Arizona of a few things).
Perrault, Bjugstand, Sutter, Raanta (with another piece added to Rusty), etc. – that’s the type of Russell trade that may be workable and that helps the team and it keeps the right side depth chart that’s needed.
If it was 2017 then, sure, Holtby as that price point sound great.
The key is that Holtby has had three below average regular seasons in a row – this last one, particularly bad.
There is nothing to show that he’ll be better than Koksinen, in my opinion.
While he wasn’t better than Smith this past year, I am confidant he will be but, at the price point I’m sure he’ll require, its a massive, massive risk.
NEW for The Athletic: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
https://theathletic.com/2025170/2020/08/28/lowetide-how-close-are-the-oilers-to-deploying-two-formidable-scoring-lines/
Yeah, that’s the way I see it.
The cap hit is always going to be the big negative with Russell. But there’s always going to be teams looking for defensive depth at the deadline who can fit Russell in under their cap for a third of a season. At that point you might even get a small asset for him.
That’s how we ended up with Mike Green last season.
I disagree.
For your assertion to be correct, there would have to be a bidding war among teams struggling to meet the cap floor while short on dollars, who are also not on his NTC.
Even if he waives to go to Ottawa, you would expect them to charge a premium for cap relief.
His trade value obviously spikes after his signing bonus is paid.
By spiking, I mean ‘less negative’ in value. After that, you could see his trade value being even further less negative at the deadline where the impact of his cap is diminished.
On the Matt Benning stuff, I agree he’s very likely to be moved.
The coach won’t play him above the 3rd pair and while he’s very good in that role (and theoretically nice cover for injury), if he’s strictly a 3RD his contract is a bit of an overpay. He also (IMO) has some trade value, so regardless of whether Holland moves Russell it makes sense to part ways with Benning.
I wanted to point out though, Benning has actually had success when given top 4 minutes, and that’s been a fair number of minutes over the past few seasons (much less this year). I’ve posted similar to this before before but have given up since Tippett’s been very clear how he feels about Benning (Bear, Bouchard and Persson all given 2RD ABs in camp over Benning; those guys plus lefty D Russell and Jones getting regular season games at 2RD over Benning).
But one more (probably last) time, below are Benning’s 5on5 on ice results with Klefbom, Nurse and Russell from 17-18 and 18-19. The key point here is this is post-Sekera injury, so the Oilers employed 6 main D (including Sekera) but Sekera was strictly a 3rd pairing D in those 2 injury recovery seasons.
That means Benning was the Oilers #5D both of those years and when he played with one of Klefbom/Nurse/Russell it was almost always as an injury replacement and as a top 4 D. So, Benning with:
Klefbom 577min 23GF-24GA (48.9%) 53.6 xGF% (Klefbom was actually his most common D partner)
Nurse — 235 min 20GF-10GA (66.7%) 53.1 xGF%
Russell – 121min 6GF—-4GA (60.0%) 50.0 xGF%
——————————————————————
Total —– 933min 49GF-38GA (56.3%) 53.0 xGF%
——————————————————————-
And for reference the others overall:
Klefbom 2251min 74GF—102GA (42.1%) 51.4 xGF%
Nurse — 3105min 132GF-129GA (50.6%) 49.4 xGF%
Russell- 2559min 96GF—106GA (47.5%) 48.1 xGF%
The Oilers performed very well when Matt Benning was used as the 2RD.
Dave Tippett isn’t going to use him there, but he was quite good when given those minutes despite the choppy stride and other shortcomings.
I may be wrong about this, but won’t Russell’s trade value diminish as the season progresses? I think his greatest value is the difference between actual salary and cap hit, and I believe the gap between those shrinks over the course of he season. I might be wrong.
Not sure if you’ll see this at this hour but thanks man.
Agreed.
Not at all interested in Perreault for Russell by the way.
Trading Russell is possible. Trading Russell without taking back a big contract (eg Mathieu Perreault) is the sticky wicket.
Absolutely.
I’m not against trading Russell. But I’m enough of a realist to realize it’s going to be difficult to do.
Flat cap, better goalies in the market, weird/uncertain virus year, close to home, bad couple years…all factors that could get us close to that 4.5mil, no?
Lehner being the best available FA goalie (by consensus), how much is he getting in the fall? 7mil max I think? Not many teams can pay the elite prices this year…I feel like we have an opportunity, this year especially, to get a good goalie at good value.
Holtby’s salary is 6mil right now, if he’s willing to take a bridge…I don’t think it’s much more than 4.5mil. Maybe 5?
Nothing to do with “helping myself” – i respond to posts, not posters.
I agree – even though he hasn’t even been worth that much the last three regular seasons…..
I do think that Holtby will get paid more than $4M per this summer – based off of name value.
He’s young enough that he could rebound but he’s been below average for starters three years in a row now and very bad this past season – worse than Smith. Even when he “won the cup”, he wasn’t the team’s starter going in to the playoffs.
His next contract will be a massive risk if its over $4M with any term and I don’t imagine he comes to Edmonton for a discount.
As far as “while we still have McDavid and Drai’s primes” – they aren’t even in them yet – sure, they are in their offensive primes but there is lots of growth to expect in the games of each player.
I would still try very hard to first trade Russell over Benning. ?
Thinking of this topic, what fun a Jones-Bouch pairing could be…in a sheltered role to start, but there could be benefits to limiting Lars time to some hard matchups that he is rather uniquely well suited for in terms of Oil RD….
As well as a player and contract worth keeping until Berglund is ready to be 4RD…..
It also takes care of the expansion draft exposure requirement for d-man.
Exactly.
And maybe Bouchard is ready to take someones job by mid-season.
And I’m guessing Russell becomes easier to trade as you approach the trade deadline.
Perfect timing.
If push comes to shove and KH has to move Benning instead of Russell, the team could buy some time with
Nurse-Bear
Klef-Lars
Russell-Jones
…if necessary…..i.e., if Bouch isn’t ready for 3RD.
If Bouch “wins it at camp”, they could run
Jones-Bouch
Or
Klef-Bouch
Jones-Lars
The addition of some RD depth in the system would then also be most welcome….and KRusty can eat popcorn until he increases his team trade list…:)
Yep.
We’ve gone round and round on this before. I think you know you’re not going to change my position on this.
And yet you felt the need to respond to my conversation with another poster. Just couldn’t help yourself I guess.
Solly,
If Holtby were willing to take a significant home town discount he wouldn’t be a terrible option. He was quite bad this year and not great the 2 before (terrible for 3 years is definitely a stretch). I definitely wouldn’t break the bank (or give a lot of years) but he’s a decent rebound option.
I don’t think $4.5 million gets you Holtby
I like your idea of trying to move Russell this way…an asset would be nice, but not entirely necessary to get that much cap space right now
Thanks for the input!
WSH is not Western Canada, but they are a cup contender.
The actual money and cap hit thing always screws me up, I knew it sounded too good.
I do agree signing him to a 1 or 2 year is ideal, but I don’t think he wants anything less than 3.
He has had 3 bad seasons, which is why we might be able to afford him.
Would you rather pay 4.5mil right now for Holtby or Koskinen? I would take Holtby.
His traditional stats were worse than Koskinen, and if he falters we still have Koskinen. Still a 1A/1B tandem which is ideal for Koskinen because he plays better when he has true competition.
We need a goalie now before McD n Drai lose their primes, and Holtby presents good value for 4.5mil. Remember he played in the East where games are generally higher scoring, so the stats may not represent the actual player. Playing in the West might be what he needs to get back to elite levels.
I do agree with you though, with that cap hit at 4m it’s just a pipe-dream…would you do it for Benning then?
We’ve had this conversation before and we will simply have to disagree. I am hopeful the coach can learn from his mistakes and you think he will continue to do what didn’t work in the past.
Its also clear you don’t spend the time to read my posts as you asked a question that was expressly answered in the post you were responding to.
Enjoy the rest of your night.
Benning at 1.75×2-3 is a very tradable (value) contract.
Well the Preds have Johansen, Bonino and Turris as well so no shame in moving to wing like Nuge.
I worked in concessions at Civic Stadium as a kid when the Mavericks were playing there. Kurt Russell played 2nd base for a couple of years, mainly because his dad, Bing, owned the team. Kurt didn’t hit much but was a very good athlete, you have to be to not embarrass yourself playing pro ball. I think they may have also been the first pro team to have a female GM (Lanny Moss). Anyways, I have tons of memories from that time and some crazy stories to tell.
Well…there’s a President speaking 🙂
I think Holland will see Holtby as a viable option for sure, and he should have some good years left. There are other options and I think Holtby’s contract will be too dear for Edmonton.
I wonder if Krug or someone is coming to town. Via UFA or trade.
No hockey or basketball or baseball on TV tonight. Whats left to watch! -).
Holtby is done. His will be one of the worst UFA anchors signed this fall. Kris Russell isn’t cheap capwise. $4 million dollar cap hit.
Russell only costs $1.5M in actual money paid from here on out but his cap hit will still be $4M.
As you mentioned, Washington is in cap trouble so I don’t see them taking on a 7D for a $4M cap hit.
Would Russell agree to go to Washington? Not quite Western Canada.
Also, as far as traditional stats go, Holtby was worse than both our goalies this year, including Smith. He was very poor and has had 3 poor seasons in row.
I would not give him $4.5M nor 3 years of term.
I would do this if Holtby was locked in to one year at under $4M – similar to the Lucic/Neal deal – moving the cap around.
Don’t see the Caps on board with taking on Russell though.
If they can trade Russell, and lose that cap hit, great.
But if they can’t, which dman are you trading? Cause I don’t see them paying Russell 4 million to sit in the press box.
I also think you are putting way too much emphasis on what the coach said a year ago. I prefer to watch what he does in real time.
Tippett said he prefers lefty righty pairings, all things being equal. You have taken that as gospel and I’m guessing you agree with the coach.
And yet, when push comes to shove in the playoffs, who replaces Larsson at 2RD? The lefty shooting Russell. So I guess Tippett really isn’t married to the whole lefty righty thing.
It keeps coming back to the same simple truth. Barring a Russell trade, or a major shakeup of the defense, Matt Benning is the most likely Oiler dman to be traded.
Awwwwwe man….screwed up my 1st post!
Edit: Holtby is a…one-time Stanley Cup winner…which is still more than both of our goalies 😉
1st time poster but long time reader and fan…thank you LT for this. True Oiler fans need it.
I know it’s daring to toss out a trade proposition with a first time post, but it’s what inspired me to post in the first place so here we go!
Kris Russell for Braden Holtby…straight up…BEFORE his contract expires this fall?
We get the rights to talk to Holtby and get a deal done at no more than 4.5 x 3 (preferably 4 x 3), or we walk away and let him go to free agency. We would then get nothing for Kris Russell but we get the much-needed cap room to MacGyver a deal with a higher-tiered UFA and fill the top winger/3C problem? Or maybe to go after Lehner?
Washington gets a 7D at the cheaper 1.5mil, and they are now getting something for a goalie that is most likely walking anyway. They are in cap trouble and could use cheap contracts….do they need a K. Russell though? That I don’t know. (Kris Russell would hopefully waive the NMC to play in Washington right?)
IMO we desperately need an elite goalie right now and there are more elite goalies on the market this upcoming year than most. Holtby may not still be elite, but he’s better than both of our goalies right now. Goalies win games for you in the playoffs and Holtby has done a lot of winning in the playoffs. And at the same price tag as Koskinen, 2 years younger than Koskinen, a 2-time Stanley Cup winner, a local boy…why not inquire? They say no…at least we tried and maybe Holtby signs here anyway because he heard we tried to get him.
Long-winded…and still some intangibles…but my point is clear? Go Get Holtby.
Please don’t hold back, that’s why we’re all here 🙂
Kris Russell is overpaid, vastly.
I don’t agree that Matt Benning is overpaid and, if he is, its marginal.
Your premise is on the inability to trade Russell – that very well may be the case but it very well may not be the case. A “clean disposition of Russell” may be very very hard but, as we saw with Milan Lucic, the moving of an “untradeable” player and contract can indeed be done. Maybe its for Bjugstad or Sutter or another type anchor in a position of need as oppossed to depth but that has value (as we saw with Lucic for Neal).
Even if its not do-able, I don’t believe that means the Benning is “next guy up” as that is a contract where the player provides value (and I think its likely that his AAV comes in less next years). More importantly, its at a position where there is no NHL depth if he’s moved.
I do not agree I put too much weight in to which way a d-man shoots. The head coach himself says how much he values lefty-rightie – trying Joel Persson for an elongate stretch before moving a leftie over to the right side.
Further, I premise not wanting Jones nor Russell on the right side by watching them be less effective on their off-sides, both of them.
If Rusty can’t be traded, fine, I take the chance on Lagesson getting claimed on waivers and have Rusty as the 4LD.
I want the cap space. but it is what it is.
Yup Bouchard and Jones should start on the 3rd pairing and with Bouchard as 4RD going in to camp, I’m confidant he will see plenty of 3RD during the season. With Bouchad as 3RD going in to camp, and there not being a 4RD available, I see Bouchard being forced in to the top 4 quicker than anyone wants.
LT. watched a Netflix documentary you might like called “the battered bastards of baseball” about the Portland Mavericks.
Any proven NHL defenseman is a valuable commodity. Unless he is overpaid.
Kris Russell is a proven NHL dman, but he is overpaid.
Matt Benning is now a proven NHL dman. I am not arguing that he is a bad player, but that he is slightly overpaid.
And more importantly, if Russell is untradeable, Benning is the easiest dman on the roster to replace. And that’s really what this comes down to.
I think everyone here agrees that Jones will be able to earn a regular spot in the top 6 next year. Bouchard also will probably be ready at some point next year. Somethings got to give.
If you can’t move Russell, who goes?
Where do you think Jones and Bouchard should start their careers? The 3rd pairing maybe?
So why not move the 3rd pairing dman who you probably can trade? Why not trade the guy who has the least upside, outside of Russell, of your potential 3rd pairing pool.
I think you are getting way too hung up on which way a 3rd pairing dman shoots. And it’s blinding you from the simple, obvious decision.
He changed up how he did his rankings because the draft hasn’t happened and the weirdness of the year. It was essentially 22 years old and younger.
https://t.co/rgnYla9Nhm?amp=1
That may very well be the case but I think he’s shown that he can be a valuable player. Does he have a choppy stride and have to work hard to get back from puck retrievals?
Sure but the majority of the time he gets there and does the job – as shown by him being a plus guy in every category year after year after year.
Of course, a big part of that is the comp he faces as a 3rd pairing guy but, for $1.9M and entering his prime years, i think that’s fine value (and I think he may sign for a lower AAV for term – 2-3 years at around $1.75M.
That’s a value contract in my opinion for what he brings and, frankly, I think he may be able to bring more – his numbers over the years with the likes of Klef are quite good.
Yes, I know, coaches have hesitated to give him those at bats but that doesn’t mean he can’t get those at bats in the future or that he wouldn’t be able to succeed with them – at least in short fill-in stretches.
I agree with Kinger, this is not the place to try and save a few hundred grand of cap – if Berglund was over and looking like he is an NHL option then, sure, maybe, but the depth isn’t there for next season – not right now.
JOFA,
Just a thought. Larsson has more value to us than what he returns. I heard he would like to come back. I think at good price. Solidify the right side with others coming. As for Russell, I don’t believe he can be moved (maybe deadline) and he fits sort of well as the 5, 6, 7 D. Nurse and Klefbom may not be moved this year but they eventually will. Jones, Broberg, laggeson, Samorukov on left side. Big, mean and fast.
I don’t think KH is going to move a bunch of D before the next season starts. However, there could be some of the trades being discussed here throughout the season…
I am hoping he can find a nice new place for KRusty. That is the most impactful move he could (probably) pull off opening up much needed cap space and roster space where there is a proven “better than replacement” player (Jones). Keeping Larsson and Benning to start the year is wise, if either are moved there needs to be a legit RD coming from somewhere outside the organization. I am reasonably confidant that Bouch will move up into a 2RD position within his first NHL season. There will be wobble, but…there always is.
He has been over 50% in faceoffs over the last number of years and, until this year, seemingly took a full lot as a center. This season, winger amount of faceoffs.