OILERS VS. MAPLE LEAFS: LATER ON

by Lowetide

Back in 2016, I compared the Toronto Maple Leafs recent drafts to the Oilers, promising to come back in a few years to look at it unless I won the lottery and bought the team. Lucky for you, the lottery Gods did not bless me. Here we are.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

THE TORONTO SIDE

The Leafs had (imo) a dandy 2015 draft, featuring Mitch Marner and a cast of about one dozen. Toronto followed up with No. 1 overall Auston Matthews and most predicted greatness for both men, and the organization. Here are the draft picks from both 2015 and 2016, with draft day NHLE and sorted by NHL GP:

  • RW Mitch Marner: NHLE 53 (300 NHL games)
  • LC Auston Matthews: NHLE 49 (282 NHL games)
  • LD Travis Dermott: NHLE 20 (157 NHL games)
  • LW Dmytro Timashev NHLE 32 (44 NHL games)
  • RW Carl Grundstrom: NHLE 16 (28 NHL games)
  • LC Adam Brooks: NHLE 41 (7 NHL games) (age 20)
  • RW Yegor Korshkov: NHLE 19 (1 NHL game)

Marner and Matthews are brilliant players and Toronto had choices aside from Marner. I don’t know how much credit can be given to the scouts and the analytics team for those selections. Dermott played 25 percent of his time against elites, making him a third pairing option who fares well against competition. I like Timashov and Brooks but they didn’t emerge as NHL regulars. Toronto made some good picks not mentioned here like Joseph Woll, JD Greenway and Jeremy Bracco, but the three actual NHL players were obvious to all without math’s help. Someone could emerge but right now it looks like two lottery picks and a No. 5 defender. Edmonton did better 2010/2011.

This is important stuff for me, because I do believe math can guide a draft. That doesn’t mean math exclusively or even math predominantly, but a team using math as a draft tool should be able to beat the odds enough to show value.

THE EDMONTON SIDE

The Oilers had a ton of picks in 2015 but traded most of them, the scouts made great use of what they had left. The 2016 draft saw the team draft Jesse Puljujarvi and he’s still matriculating, so that’s an area the Oilers are weaker than Toronto. Here’s Edmonton’s list, sorted by NHL GP:

  • LC Connor McDavid NHLE: 68 (351 NHL games)
  • RW Jesse Puljujarvi NHLE: 21 (139 NHL games)
  • RD Ethan Bear NHLE: 13 (89 NHL games)
  • LD Caleb Jones NHLE: 7 (60 NHL games)
  • RD John Marino NHLE: nil (56 NHL games)
  • LW Tyler Benson NHLE: 23 (7 NHL games)

McDavid trumps all but the Oilers don’t get credit for the lottery win. In fact, the scouts (or the GM) were unable to grab a Marner in 2016 despite being in the neighbourhood and that may be the tipping point in Toronto’s favour.

That said, the Oilers have three men who are playing bigger minutes than Dermott. Bear played top minutes, Jones was taking over later in the year and Marino played top-4 (32 percent) minutes.

So, what list is better? Matthews, Marner, Dermott? Or McDavid, Puljujarvi, Bear, Jones and Marino? I think we’ll be able to answer better after the coming season. It’ll be year 5 after the draft for Puljujarvi.

I think the Oilers, who aren’t (as far as I know) heavy into using math for the draft, performed well compared to the Maple Leafs.

The Marner-Puljujarvi gap is real but in looking outside top-5 picks (we don’t normally give a lot of credit for those picks as they are mostly automatic) the scouts in Edmonton won the day. The 2017 drafts for both teams favour the Oilers as well.

I may run Tampa Bay and or Los Angeles against the Oilers in the next while just for fun. Math does work. It’s why Andrew Mangiapane should have gone far earlier in the draft and why Lawson Crouse should have gone much later.

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OriginalPouzar

A fourth overall pick not providing any value to the team on the ice 4 seasons later has really hurt the organization. It looks like some value may be regained going forward but certainly not “4th overall” impact value. That stings.

Scungilli Slushy

Add to that a 1OV that got traded for a defensive D, a 1 OV that busted.

could have been a lot different, Yak’s weak draft cohort notwithstanding.

Nuge is a very good player but that was another draft with no obvious elite players at the top.

But they have a great core now, go Holland.

defmn

Looking at drafts from 2010 to 2018 there seems to be a ‘disappointment’ in every top 5 if the standard is franchise changer.

2010 – Gubranson 3rd, Neiderreitter 5th
2011 – Larsson 4th, Strome 5th
2012 – Yakupov 1st, Murray 2nd, Galchenyuk 3rd, Reinhart 4th
2013 – Drouin 3rd
2014 – Bennett 4th, Dal Colle 5th
2015 – Strome 3rd
2016 – Puljujarvi 4th, Juolevi 5th
2017 – Patrick 2nd
2018 – Hayton 5th

Too soon to say on the last two years.

theDjdj

I thought Strome the Younger had experienced something of a renaissance at Chicago.

defmn

Entering his 5th year as a 3rd OV pick he is 164 36 69 105 44 in GP, Goals, assists, points and PIMs.

I think that is less than expected. I’ve also heard he looked better last year but this is where he is.

Munny

They’re from the decade prior but off the top of my head I’d throw Cam Barker, Bogosian and Schenn on that list. Two #3s and a 5th overall.

Benoit Pouliot maybe too.

defmn

Yup. Edmonton has had more than their share of misses but they aren’t alone.

flyfish1168

Hi LT
Interesting read. One player made the difference. Leon is close enough that if you include 2014 draft Wm Nylander is also in the picture and still tips the scale back to the leafs. It shows we really need Jesse to succeed here.

defmn

Even with the year back in Europe, hip operations Jesse is still 13th in goals scored for his draft year. 17th in points.

If you squint 2016 produced 9-10 impact players to date.

Matthews
Laine
Tkachuk
DeBrincat
Keller
Dubois
Sergachev
McAvoy
Chycrun
Bratt

Nine players taken in the first round haven’t played 20 games entering their draft +5 season.

Bratt & DeBrincat are the only 2 taken outside of the top 16 who you could say have significantly surprised the professional scouting community in a good way.

Last edited 12 days ago by defmn
pts2pndr

I believe with math you can set parameters and within those parameters there shouldn’t be the large margin of error that we used to see. It should be the number one tool and once the parameters are set all other factors are then taken into consideration. To me skating, desire, level of compete and athleticism round out the package.

defmn

Game 2 report on Holloway if you are interested.

https://theoilknight.ca/2020/11/14/dylan-holloway-game-2-report/

wolf8888

Thanks defmn. good 2 game start for Hollaway. he looks like an excellent fit for the Oilers. That aggressive forecheck and speed are a real need for the Oilers

Munny

We’re going to have to find some way to sneak you into a stadium when they play at home.

defmn

Some interesting gossip & speculation from Leavins’ ‘9 things’ this morning regarding Chiasson, Bear & Turris.

The Chiasson speculation is particularly interesting to me since, if true, immediately runs my mind to wondering if Holland is having buyer remorse on Kassian’s contract.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/if-the-nhl-is-wise-the-2020-21-edmonton-oilers-season-will-be-delayed-until-covid-can-be-controlled-9-things

wolf8888

Sorry defmn, I’m not seeing the connection. How is this article indicating that Holland may have remorse about Kassian’s contract?

defmn

Well. Winger surplus used to plug other weakness is Leavin’s take.

Who wouldn’t we trade?

Who wouldn’t bring anything much back.

Who is untradeable?

Process of elimination takes me to Kassian or Puljujarvi. I Puljujarvi only allows $1M in cap to come back which doesn’t deliver much in terms of shoring up a different position so my mind went to Kassian who has a big enough cap hit to trade for dollars in – dollars out improvement in another area.

I don’t know. Does that make sense?

wolf8888

I see what you mean, process of illimination. Too many RWs and cap space need. Maybe Calgary trade Tkachuk for him?! haha

Munny

Yes.

pts2pndr

It makes sense in some ways for the Oilers but I’m not sure that there would be a market for Kassian or if there is what the team could reasonably expect in return. The object of the exercise is to improve the team and I personally can’t see there being a trade for Kassian that would do that.

defmn

Goal would be my guess.

Last edited 12 days ago by defmn
jp

It strikes me as very unlikely that Holland would trade for a goalie now, before at least giving Smith a chance to do some damage.

defmn

The rumour was sometime during the season.

jp

“This winter”?

I suppose that suggests in-season, though Leavins post also opines the season won’t start until February. And December is winter, no? (Or were you referring to something else?)

In any case, in-season would make more sense for sure.

defmn

I read it as during the season but, yeah, the screwy start time does make it ambiguous.

It is just speculation by Kurt, of course, but he has connections and has been right more than once in the past when it comes to these things.

I am also guessing/speculating since I know nothing and no one. It just seems like goal is the one area where improvement didn’t happen and we all hoped it would.

And I guess I should also mention that as one of the few who has defended Chiasson’s contract as appropriate I welcomed the rumour that he is not the guy most likely moved even if that has been the hope expressed here by a number of posters this off season.

The Turris tidbit was interesting as well, no?

jp

I didn’t take ‘during the season’ from it when I read but it was definitely ambiguous either way.

We’ve all been speculating a winger will be moved too but for sure Leavins’ suggesting it shouldn’t be Chiasson is a bit different take. There could well be something to this, and I do agree the tea leaves likely point in Kassian’s vicinity if there is something brewing.

Goal I agree is the most likely sore spot (well, together with 2LD). If your reading of in-season is correct then I definitely agree a goalie makes sense. Just don’t see an upgrade on Smith happening before he actually has a chance to struggle. But you never know.

The Turris tidbit, yeah that was very interesting. And he sure sounded pretty happy about things in his interview after he signed. Not sure if it’s Tippett, or other connections (did he play with Smith in Arizona too?). Or maybe it’s just playing with McDavid and Draisaitl? Anyway, quite cool

pts2pndr

Kassian is another example that looking back his contract at the time of signing and given the dearth of wingers was a little high but not to extreme we see it with COVID glasses on. It was commonly held that if Kassian was left to go to UFA he would receive the same or more. With the COVID reset his cap hit is too high. Once again hindsight is 2020 which is apropos.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Holland did mention specifically that any trades going forward would be “salary in, salary out” which certainly supports your (inherently logical) theory.

Georgexs

From 2007 and 2016, NHL teams selected 176 forwards in the second round, roughly 6 forward picks per team over 10 years.

Just 29 (16.48%) of these picks have played 10 or more games and scored at .35 Pts/GP (replacement level threshold) or better for their career.

And only 14 (7.95%) have played 10 or more games and scored .5 Pts/GP (top 6 forward threshold) or better for their career.

If the chance of success in selecting a better than replacement level forward or a top 6 forward is the same for all teams, we can use the binomial distribution to determine the number of teams that will find 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 such forwards with their 6 picks over 10 years.

Let’s compare the count of teams finding x replacement+ forwards in 6 picks as predicted by the binomial distribution with the actual count over those 10 years.

x, predicted # of teams, actual # of teams

0, 10, 11
1, 12, 12
2, 6, 4
3, 2, 3

The binomial distribution (with n=6, p=.1648) fits the observed data quite well.

How about for top 6 forwards?

x, predicted # of teams, actual # of teams

0, 18, 19
1, 9, 8
2, 2, 3

Rounding causes a little bumpiness but the fit (with n=6, p=.0795) is still quite good.

Therefore, second round forward picks can be modeled as a series of n independent trials with a constant probability (p) of success. Cool.

The Oilers are one of the 11 teams with 0 replacement+ picks and one of the 19 teams with 0 top 6 picks.

Holland’s Red Wings were one of 2 teams that had 3 replacement+ picks and one of 3 teams with 2 top 6 picks (Tatar, Bertuzzi as top 6, and Jarnkrok as the replacement+).

Here’s the list of 29 successful 2nd round forward picks out of the 176 over those 10 years sorted in descending order of Pts/GP:

Player, GP, Pts, Pts/GP, Drafting Team

Nikita Kucherov, 515, 547, 1.06, Tampa Bay
Sebastian Aho, 310, 263, 0.85, Carolina
Alex DeBrincat, 234, 173, 0.74, Chicago
Ryan O’Reilly, 804, 560, 0.70, Colorado
Derek Stepan, 739, 479, 0.65, NY Rangers
Tomas Tatar, 575, 347, 0.60, Detroit
Tyler Bertuzzi, 199, 119, 0.60, Detroit
Brandon Saad, 588, 347, 0.59, Chicago
Tyler Toffoli, 525, 300, 0.57, Los Angeles
William Karlsson, 410, 230, 0.56, Anaheim
Wayne Simmonds, 909, 499, 0.55, Los Angeles
Jason Zucker, 471, 255, 0.54, Minnesota
Jakob Silfverberg, 558, 291, 0.52, Ottawa
Ryan Spooner, 325, 167, 0.51, Boston
Christian Dvorak, 246, 115, 0.47, Arizona
Roope Hintz, 118, 55, 0.47, Dallas
Boone Jenner, 489, 223, 0.46, Columbus
Victor Rask, 405, 179, 0.44, Carolina
Brandon Pirri, 275, 121, 0.44, Chicago
Ryan Donato, 130, 57, 0.44, Boston
Chris Tierney, 436, 189, 0.43, San Jose
J.T. Compher, 223, 91, 0.41, Buffalo
Calle Jarnkrok, 459, 183, 0.40, Detroit
Richard Panik, 469, 181, 0.39, Tampa Bay
Zach Sanford, 157, 58, 0.37, Washington
Devin Shore, 288, 106, 0.37, Dallas
Artturi Lehkonen, 291, 107, 0.37, Montreal
Alex Chiasson, 519, 186, 0.36, Dallas
Carl Grundstrom, 28, 10, 0.36, Toronto

Holland, having done very well in the second round compared to his peers, still understood that AA was worth 2 2nd round picks… without a cutting edge Kraken/Sakic style analytics team from my understanding. That’s reassuring.

Last edited 12 days ago by Georgexs
€√¥£€^$

A couple of Holloway stats I just looked up, small sample size, of course.

Shooting % = 40.0 (2/5) – had a lot of missed net shots, some concerns that he is playing too much on the perimeter, if he gets into the the tough areas he might generate many more shots/points
Faceoff % = 66.7 (20/30)

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I’m very concerned about the possibility that Dylan Holloway turns out to be Lawson Crouse 2.0.

godot10

Why? Crouse was a winger with little offense. Holloway is a centre who has been offensively productive throughout his career, apart from a couple of months when he moved far away from home to be the youngest new guy on a team with a coach unfamiliar with him, in a college league where seniority is a thing, and their were more highly recruited and famous rookies ahead of him.

wolf8888

Why?

defmn

I thought it was established last night by HH that he was Virtanen. 😉

Harpers Hair

From above:

“A couple of Holloway stats I just looked up, small sample size, of course. 
Shooting % = 40.0 (2/5) – had a lot of missed net shots, some concerns that he is playing too much on the perimeter, if he gets into the the tough areas he might generate many more shots/points”

Pretty much describes Virtanen.

Both big, both fast, both perimeter players.

At Holloway’s age, Virtanen played 55 games in the NHL.

pts2pndr

what you neglected to say was that he finished the season minus seven an played 65 games in Utica the following year. Half truths and bullshit as always.

Harpers Hair

Considering the Canucks had a goal differential of -56 that season, -7 ain’t too bad for a rookie.
Yes, he needed time in the AHL but many young players do.

Do you think Holloway will be in the NHL next season?

jp

You’d think a playoff team would be much less likely to use their #14 pick in his draft +2 than would a 29th place team with their #6 pick. No?

Harpers Hair

Depends on how good the pick is.

McDavid desperately needs a winger and if Nuge walks it becomes even more acute.

jp

Well yes, there’s typically a rather large gap between how good picks #6 and #14 are.

And how good their team is also has a large say, as I said. That Canucks team was a shambles, the Oilers next season will almost certainly be far superior.

That McDavid desperately needs a winger is also greatly exaggerated IMO.

I’d note that the two wingers he’s expected to play with scored at better rates this past season than every Canuck save Pettersson and Miller. And the Oilers added another in FA (for less than $1M) who also scored better than all but those 2 Canucks.

OriginalPouzar

Of course, the stats provided don’t actually represent his play – he is certainly not a perimeter player.

Of course, things such as leadership, work ethic, “best athlete in the draft, advanced 2-way play – noone uses these to describe Jake V.

Wait, now age matters? It didn’t when propping up Rafferty, something about “different path to get here”.

pts2pndr

👍 👏 👏 👏

€√¥£€^$

I completely disagree that Lawson Crouse is a comparable to Holloway.

Crouse is a great skater/forechecker, but also has 3″ and 20 lbs on Holloway and was drafted much too high because he is big and fast. Because of his physical attributes he dominated smaller Ayers.

Holloway, although also physically advanced compared to his peers has always been the youngest or one of the youngest players on his teams. He is successful due to his hockey IQ and he has much more offensive potential than Crouse, who might never hit 20 goals and 40 points (think Kassian-level offense) as his ceiling.

Holloway is more like Chris Kreider, 20 to 30 goals, 50 to 60 pts. On a line with Connor perhaps he gets to 40 goals and 70-80 points.

Anyway that’s where I see him, but I am probably the biggest Holloway booster on this blog, so perhaps I am blinded by bias.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

If Holloway has a Chris Kreider career then Kenny hit a grand slam and Connor probably goes supernova in his prime years. Here’s hoping you are correct.

jp

Aside from Wisconsin last season what other seasons was he one of the youngest on his team?

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

Again, behind – posted last night.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide

Especially considering it’s self inflicted. If you tried there’s not a way to have handled JP more poorly than the Oilers did 2016-19.

I agree although I do put some of that on the demands of Lehto – its become obvious that there was an agreement to keep him on the NHL roster for 40 games in his rookie season in order to vest that year towards free agency. My guess is that was Lehto’s requirement for Jesse to sign and come to North America – of course, if the organization would have been fine with him staying in Finland, that likely would have been the better path for draft plus 1.

The recall from the AHL after only 4 games before Hitch “confidently” determined that he could “fix him” in year 3 was stunningly terrible.

Scungilli Slushy

Prospects are just that, prospects.

We know those closer to the top of the draft are more likely to cover the bet. Because they are the best players at their age in the world.

It remains that selecting players that have the closest to an NHL skill set are the most likely to succeed.

Certainly skill and the ability to produce is the main trait. As a longtime Lowetidian that has felt the many one dimensional players the team has chosen with obvious significant issues with their game translating to the NHL I like the choices they are making.

Big strong great skating players with skill and hockey smarts are the best bet higher up. High skill especially in the lower rounds are the best bet.

I don’t see any potentially zoomed draft picks lately or skating / skill optional types. Those were the picks that rarely worked out.

Sure some won’t pan out but the chances are so much better with the direction now I can’t complain, anymore.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Couldn’t agree more. The turn northwards in drafting happened under Pete, and appears to have continued (with some refinements) under the new regime. Early results are encouraging, and could lead to a sustainable run of contending through the careers of our core players.

Scungilli Slushy

Virtanen and Holloway have little in common.

Virtanen was a muscled up junior that had bad training habits and dominated smaller players.

Green motivated him in the A. He still lacks internal motivation. He should talk to Bear.

He can’t succeed with his big pipes in the NHL and lack of training as he once did.

From all accounts I’ve seen Holloway is the opposite.

Harpers Hair

Apparently, at the age of 24, he has seen the light.

He left home in Abbotsford and moved in with Tyler Myers in Kelowna after the playoffs and is reportedly training with a large contingent of NHL players who live there in the offseason including Shea Weber and others.

defmn

So now you are saying Virtanen and Holloway are not the same player since Holloway’s work ethic was one of his strong points?

It’s hard to keep up with you some days.

Harpers Hair

Not at all.
While work ethic is swell, if the player still is a perimeter player as both are at the moment, it doesn’t mean much.
Both are still young enough to change that.

It should be noted that Virtanen was on pace to score 20+ goals last season playing mostly third line minutes.
If his “come to Jesus” moment is real, he has an enormous opportunity to move up to the second line and second PP unit with the exit of Toffoli.

What he does with that opportunity remains to be seen but he has the size, speed and shot to make it work.

Next season will likely define his career. He seems to know that.

Georgexs

From 2007 to 2016, teams selected 816 forwards in rounds 3 to 7. That’s a little over 27 picks per team on average, around 3 picks per team per year.

67 (8.21%) of these picks have played 10 or more games and scored .35 Pts/GP or more.

31 (3.8%) of these picks have played 10 or more games and scored .5 Pts/GP or more:

With 27 picks over the 10 year span, a team could expect about 2 players who score above replacement level. One of those players would be able to score at top-6 level.

10 years of forward picks in the 3rd to 7th round yields an expected value of… one top-6 forward.

Wild.

There was something interesting in the distribution of teams finding 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, … top 6 forwards. The tails were bigger than predicted by the binomial distribution. There were more teams selecting 0 top-6 forwards over the 10-year span than expected (13 actual vs. 11 predicted) and more teams selecting 3 or more top-6 forwards than expected (4 actual vs. 2 predicted).

TBL managed to find 5 (!!) such players.

Cirelli
Gusev
Killorn
Palat
Point

TBL picked 33 forwards in rounds 3 to 7 over those 10 years. By the binomial distribution, the probability of finding 5 or more top-6 forwards with 33 picks and a probability of success of .038 is .00773, roughly a 1 in 129 chance.

Such an unlikely result strongly suggests TBL had a better chance of success with its late round picks than the league average. (TBL’s actual success rate was 5 out of 33 or 15%.)

I’m not sure whether that’s draft or develop. Gusev stayed in the KHL. Here’s how many games the other picks played in the AHL:

Player, GP, Points

Point, 9, 4
Palat, 117, 82
Cirelli, 54, 37
Killorn, 54, 44

Could be TBL’s scouting program is better. Could be TBL’s farm and development system is better. Could be both. Something is clearly better. It’s very hard to pull off 5 top-6 forwards in rounds 3 to 7 in 10 years through blind luck.

The Oilers, for example, had 1 forward drafted in rounds 3 to 7 score above replacement level (anyone, anyone…) and 0 forwards score at or above top-6 level.

Holland’s Red Wings found 2 top-6 forwards: AA and Nyquist.

PC’s Bruins found Danton Heinen, a replacement+ player. That’s it.

OriginalPouzar

We knew that Granato hasn’t been enthused with the 5-week camp and Holloway being gone so early but these are stronger words:

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2052885

“They’ve said all along that they need and want and he has to be here,” Granato told the Wisconsin State Journal’s Todd D. Milewski after a victory over Notre Dame on Saturday. “So from my side of things, I don’t think it’s right because his opportunity here to get ready for a world junior tournament playing games like this is a heck of a lot better than scrimmaging (with) 20 of your teammates that you’re going to be in the tournament with.”

godot10

I don’t think this is a particularly good decision by Holloway to go to the Team Canada camp. Team Canada is making an unreasonable request to US College guys, but then Hockey Canada always screws Canadians who go the US College route.

OriginalPouzar

It would be tough for a player to turn down the invite so I certainly understand him going – I mean, the World Juniors over the holidays is a tradition in this country and I’m sure this is a dream for him.

At the same time, as I’ve been saying for a few weeks now, I’m not sure its best for his development this year. Don’t get me wrong, the tournament itself will (hopefully) be a great experience for him and it does help develop but, in the interim, I would much rather have him playing a couple games a week in the Big Ten against older players, real games, than 5 weeks of camp and some games against U-Sport is not quite

teamblue

Every Canadian boy growing up playing hockey dreams of two things. Winning the Stanley Cup, and playing at Christmas/New Years for Canada to win WJC gold.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr

I believe with math you can set parameters and within those parameters there shouldn’t be the large margin of error that we used to see. It should be the number one tool and once the parameters are set all other factors are then taken into consideration. To me skating, desire, level of compete and athleticism round out the package.

The math isn’t great for Holloway but I think we know the mitigating reasons (rookie in college in draft year) but the “package-rounders” certainly describe him!

pts2pndr

The reason the math didn’t fit in his case is it doesn’t take into account for a step up in competition and a cultural change to go with same. The young man went from living at home to college dorm life in a new country. Add to that the fact that as a freshman ice time is usually less and the numbers can be expected to take a beating. The fact that his last ten games were very were indicative that caution had to be used when taking his entire yearly point total as a negative. Like most things in life there will be outliers due to variants not considered or overlooked. I am truly happy things worked out the way they did. Mercer wouldn’t have been a bad alternative.

OriginalPouzar

defmn

Game 2 report on Holloway if you are interested.

https://theoilknight.ca/2020/11/14/dylan-holloway-game-2-report/

wolf8888

Thanks defmn. good 2 game start for Hollaway. he looks like an excellent fit for the Oilers. That aggressive forecheck and speed are a real need for the Oilers

Its interesting reading SPR’s game notes about his hesitancy to shoot the puck off the left half-wall on the PP. I wrote in my game report that he certainly wasn’t shy to do exactly that – in the last few periods I think he attempted 3 or 4 shots on the PP coming off the half wall.

That speed and aggression on the forcecheck to go along with his size is something to see – constantly at full flight through the neutral zone – mostly on the attack but both ways. Combine that with his ability to win battles, his ability to find the soft spot in the offensive zone and his plus shot with release, if he develops and his skills translate, he’ll be a perfect compliment in the Oilers top 6.

OriginalPouzar

defmn

I read it as during the season but, yeah, the screwy start time does make it ambiguous.

It is just speculation by Kurt, of course, but he has connections and has been right more than once in the past when it comes to these things.

I am also guessing/speculating since I know nothing and no one. It just seems like goal is the one area where improvement didn’t happen and we all hoped it would.

And I guess I should also mention that as one of the few who has defended Chiasson’s contract as appropriate I welcomed the rumour that he is not the guy most likely moved even if that has been the hope expressed here by a number of posters this off season.

The Turris tidbit was interesting as well, no?

Kurt does have some connections and I value his content and thoughts but, while he has hit a few things, he’s also been wrong on many (he said there was nothing going on contract-talk wise with Lagesson like two days before he signed, he spoke about Bowey about a week before Holland said he’s not interesting in acquiring another d-man, etc).

I think his thoughts on Chiasson are just that, his thoughts. I have little doubt that Tippett values Chiasson, as does Holland, but I do think he would be high on the winger-out list for the GM.

defmn

I think over 90% of the conversations that GM’s have with agents or other GM’s end up going nowhere or somewhere completely different later on.

And nobody who speculates for a living has a spotless record. It may just be Leavins reading the tea leaves; he may have heard something.

If Jesse returns looking like a top six option Kassian’s contract starts to look overly generous for this team even as his skill set might well be valued on another team.

I would be surprised, though, if Holland moves Chiasson in a season when he hopes to be in the playoffs. That is when guys like him really start to show their value imo.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree. I don’t think Chiasson will be moved at this point but I presume Holland did have some thought about it and maybe some conversations.

Thing is, I’m not sure Chiasson is moveable straight up in the current market anyways. We know he has value on the PP and as a guy that, while he won’t produce, can help saw off in the bottom six, however, at the same time, $2M buys much more on the open market than it did a year ago and there are some more dynamic offensive players still available that will likely end up with a lower cap.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr

Kassian is another example that looking back his contract at the time of signing and given the dearth of wingers was a little high but not to extreme we see it with COVID glasses on. It was commonly held that if Kassian was left to go to UFA he would receive the same or more. With the COVID reset his cap hit is too high. Once again hindsight is 2020 which is apropos.

Oh, I can’t agree that there was anything close to universal agreement on the Kassian contract. The analysis of that contract among the Oilers community was very split.

Yes, I think there was a talking head (Noodles or Mike Johnson – one of them I think) that said any GM in the league would sign it but that doesn’t make that statement true.

Lots were indeed fine with the contract – larger than anyone wanted but lots understood it was the cost to keep him off the market.

On the other hand MANY others thought it was much too high and almost all thought it at least a year too long.

I know I was not enthused by the contract pre-Covid.

defmn

Burke said it, I believe.

OriginalPouzar

€√¥£€^$

A couple of Holloway stats I just looked up, small sample size, of course.

Shooting % = 40.0 (2/5) – had a lot of missed net shots, some concerns that he is playing too much on the perimeter, if he gets into the the tough areas he might generate many more shots/points

Faceoff % = 66.7 (20/30)

Thank you for this – with respect to the missed shots, from watching, he took about 3 or 4 just last night on the PP coming off the half wall – that would show up in the “outside” numbers.

He is a zone entry machine at this level and, yes, he does have a penchant for staying outside once he enters but he did drive the puck to the net hard a few times.

From watching these two games, I have no concerns about him being a perimeter player.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, tonight, with respect to €√¥£€^$, a two game statline that shows a bunch of shots not on net has led to a narrative about being a perimeter player which has been used to equate him to Jake Virtanen – a player that he doesn’t resemble at all from my two viewings.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Pablo Picasso finished his first oil painting at nine years old. Stevie Wonder released his first Motown album at age eleven. Good players show themselves early! Duh!

Dylan Holloway will need to buy a tub of Brogan Rafferty’s anti-ageing and persistent rash cream if he is ever going to be as good as the world’s hardest worker, Jake Virtanen.

Last edited 12 days ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
OriginalPouzar

Lowetide

I expect he and his people see a good chance to make the team, that may be a factor. It isn’t going to be easy, that’s a stacked deck.

I agree – he has no chance if he doesn’t attend the camp or shows up materially late.

If the NHL does indeed start in very early January it will give Holloway a better chance – guys like Kirby Dach will be re-called to their NHL teams for camps.

For what its worth, Wheeler did have Holloway on the team, and in the starting roster, a little while back

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

Not at all.

While work ethic is swell, if the player still is a perimeter player as both are at the moment, it doesn’t mean much.

What are you basing Holloway being a perimeter play on? The opinion of one poster than posited it based on a shots missed stat?

There is nothing in his scouting report to indicte anything but the opposite of a perimeter player.

Have you ever watched him play? I expect not but correct me if I’m wrong. You certainly did not watch his two games this weekend where he was, as projected, the opposite of a permiter player.

Harpers Hair

Yes.
I watched both games.

I have two 5K 27” iMacs.

One lives on Vancouver Island and the second lives (virtually) in Sumas Washington. I can Airplay either to to the 75 inch TV in the man cave.

His first goal was a Hail Mary from well out of home plate.
That goal doesn’t go in in the NHL.

His second goal was much nicer but hardly a highlight reel worthy goal.

When Northeastern fires up its season at the end of the month, I suggest you watch Aidan McDonough a 7th round pick of the Canucks.

6’3” 190 pounds who put up 27 points in 31 games as a 19 year old freshman at Northeastern

While Holloway is younger, he’ll have to have a helluva season to keep up.

Development is never a straight line.

jp

So… not a perimeter player?

You talked about seemingly everything aside from the direct question asked.

defmn

I really don’t know why we bother. The liver casserole seems to be particularly sour & bitter this weekend.

jp

Yes, the casserole seems to have gotten angrier.

Harpers Hair

Actually…the brisket was sublime.

36 hours in the Sous Vide machine and two hours on the grill.

Incredibly tender and the “bark” was delicious.

Kosher salt, rough ground pepper, smoked paprika and a lash of Nando’s Piri Piri sauce.

Oh my.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t believe he watched the game – he commented on the player’s two goals that have been shown repeatedly on social media and nothing to do with his play in the two games.

Noone that watched those games could possibly come away with the “perimeter player” interpretation.

Its just more of the same.

OriginalPouzar

and I will be watching NorthEastern games – for Michael Kesserling.

Why the eff would I care about some 7th round pick for the canucks that’s two years older than Holloway?

Harpers Hair

Well at least you’ll be watching and will be able to see McDonough dominate.

Get back to me on that.

leadfarmer

Speed issues? Perimeter player?
Im beginning to think no one has watched him play?
Theres things you can pick apart on the player? Like What’s his offensive potential going to be.
But he was one of the most gifted natural athletes in the draft
and he thrives in the tough areas of the ice.

OriginalPouzar

If anything was evident in the two games this weekend – speed with power and being in the battle in all areas of the ice.

jp

OriginalPouzar

 November 15, 2020 8:09 pm

Harpers Hair
Not at all.
While work ethic is swell, if the player still is a perimeter player as both are at the moment, it doesn’t mean much.

What are you basing Holloway being a perimeter play on? The opinion of one poster than posited it based on a shots missed stat?

The poster has also been calling Kahun a 3rd line player after all. Based on nothing at all reasonable.

Harpers Hair

We’ll see how that turns out.

jp

We will.

Likewise how it turns out for the Canucks (as Travis Green tries to fill out his top 6 with the likes of Virtanen? Gaudette? McEwan? it’s not clear).

Harpers Hair

Gaudette and MacEwan are third line players.

Virtanen has a shot at top six minutes but will have to seize it.

He’s a much better bet to do so than Kahun.

jp

If Gaudette and MacEwen are 3rd liners then Virtanen seems the only other option, unless Baertchi is coming back from the dead or something…

A better bet than Kahun.. I suppose if Virtanen is the only 2RW option then he is a better bet to ‘seize’ the job.

Better bet of succeeding? I’d be backing Kahun myself.

Harpers Hair

I’m sure you are but there is precious little evidence to back that up.

Kahun is a year older and has scored 23 goals in the past two seasons while Virtanen has scored 33.

Virtanen has accumulated 88 points in the past two seasons…Kahun has tallied 68.

The whole point of acquiring Kahun was to get a shooter for McDavid…Virtanen would have been a better choice.

Virtanen is bigger (by a lot) faster (by a lot), a right hand shot and was a PPG game player in the WHL.

In his final season in the OHL, Kahun scored 31 points in 43 games and was -14.

But, sure, let’s anoint the inferior player as a top six forward while crapping on the better, more accomplished player.

jp

There’s lots of evidence, if you’re not willfully ignoring it.

First, your math is wrong. Kahun scored 25 goals to Virtanen’s 33.
But Virtanen only scored 61 points to 68 for Kahun.
(I’m not sure where you got 88, Virtanen didn’t even manage that over 3 seasons).

The only close to legit argument for Kahun as a 3rd liner is that he only played 26.1% of his TOI vs elites in Pittsburgh. But Virtanen was basically identical at 26.5%.

Of course Kahun played basically 40% of his time vs Elites in Chicago. 30th in the league or something. With Toews and DeBrincat as his main linemates. Finished top 6 in forward scoring. Lead the team in GF%.

Sound like a 3rd liner? Sound like Virtanen? Not so much.

Scungilli Slushy

Virtanen is a fast skater in the Lucic style (top placer in the Oilers skill comp Fastest Skater).

OriginalPouzar

Moscow vs. Yaroslav today.

Is the day that Konovalov gets this net back after Pasquale gave up a couple in a loss last game?

Do I want Konovalov to get the net back to face the red hot Kril Maksimov, who had 1G/1A in his last game?

Will Sammy play? For some reason he wasn’t in the lineup last game (I assume banged up/injured given how well he’s played and the minutes he’s been playing recently).

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