Tyler Wright and the Oilers scouts have been under a tremendous amount of pressure to deliver quality on fewer than a full complement of draft picks. Since his arrival before the 2020 draft, Edmonton has chosen 19 players in 28 rounds of drafting. Put another way, the current scouting department has missed an entire draft and then some since 2020. How are they doing?
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
TYLER WRIGHT ASSESSMENT
Success in the first round. The Oilers have drafted in the first round three times in Wright’s four seasons with the team. Dylan Holloway was the first selection (2020), the highest pick (No. 14), is the closest to becoming an NHL regular and at this point looks like the best in the group. He owns a nice range of skills, and could spend a large percentage of his career as a top-six forward. It’s also possible for middle-six deployment (second or third line) and even usage as a depth center. Xavier Bourgault was chosen No. 22 overall, and will need to pull up his socks offensively in order to cover the bet. He should be considered a safe pick, as the two-way acumen and aggressive forechecking translated instantly to the pro game. Like Holloway, middle six is calling based on current resume. Reid Schaefer (No. 32 overall) is on track and is a power forward with enough skill to project into the top-nine forwards. He is shy of Holloway and Bourgault offensively, but his rugged style allows for less offensive burst if he can agitate and intimidate during the big minutes of the game. Schaefer may end up being the best in the group.
Bottom line: Wright’s first-round picks are safe, don’t have elite offensive skills and bring a range of tools to their games. In this way, his first-round picks most closely resemble the Kevin Prendergast era (2001-07) of Oilers drafting. Those years gave Edmonton solid NHL players (Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Devan Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano, Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner) but only one man who could push the river (Ales Hemsky). I think Wright has a similar mindset. Find the sure thing, even if there’s no loud home runs in the future.
Success in the second round. Beau Akey isn’t like the first-round picks. There’s some risk here, along with considerable potential to be an impact defenceman. Red Line Report says “elite skating, mid-sized defender with loads of puck skill” and compares him to Rasmus Sandin. That’s a nice upside. RLR also says “gets caught puck watching” and “undisciplined” while also mentioning he has trouble with power forwards. So there’s risk here, along with great potential.
Bottom line: A different bet in the second round, more of an all-or-nothing player. I much prefer this tactic, and believe Wright should adopt it for the first round.
Success in the third round. Luca Munzenberger doesn’t fit the Wright profile. As you’ll see in a moment, the overwhelming majority of Wright’s picks outside the first round are the risky business. I’m going to suggest this selection may have come from other areas of management. Call it a hunch that Ken Holland or another member of management saw him at the WJ’s in his draft year and liked him plenty. Munzenberger is a shutdown type, no quarrel from me where he was taken. It runs out of time with the rest of Wright’s drafting.
Bottom line: There’s a sense among the fan base at large that Munzenberger was a wasted selection. College shutdown defensemen are the most difficult to project. The only thing worse is a high school shutdown defensemen (helloooo Troy Hesketh!)
Success after the third round. Wright’s time in Edmonton will be judged on the 14 (out of 19) selections outside the top three rounds. I count five sky pilots (‘how high can he fly?’), defined as players with enough skill to represent stolen property over $12 million if they cash. Call them “Satan’s Army” if you wish.
Carter Savoie is a strong pick despite an injury-riddled pro debut. Why? If he cashes, Edmonton gets a high skill player from the back of the draft. Maxim Berezkin is a completely different player type but qualifies because his foot speed isn’t electric. Matvey Petrov is much the same, although he’s pure sniper instead of a PF, but he’ll go as far as his boots carry him. Shane Lachance qualifies here, we’ll get a much better look at him this fall. At some point, signability will be a factor, as it is with Berezkin (Russians in Russia consider Edmonton to be Minsk based on activity over many years).
Max Wanner qualifies and is “Satan’s Unicorn” because he was an obscure player on his draft day. Every once in a blue moon I get a feeling about why a player was drafted. It’s outside the realm of predictable for the organization. Caleb Jones was like that, John Marino sure as hell was like that. I think general managers sometimes have bird dogs they trust, or maybe they fly the learjet and their pro scout to small locales to look at uncertain talent. Wanner was an outlier on draft day and now he’s matriculating as well as any defensemen in the system. Plus, he’s a RH defenseman. Music!
If one of these men turns into a legit foundation NHL player, Wright will have earned his money.
There are also several “safe” picks in the group. Tyler Tullio is already on a trajectory that exceeds his draft pedigree and I believe Nikita Yevseyev is too. Signability may be an issue but he looks like a player. Jake Chiasson brings many of the things Tullio has on his resume, but at a slightly lower level. He’ll play in the AHL, not sure he makes the NHL. I’m more sure of Tullio. Samuel Jonsson, Joel Maatta and Matt Copponi also qualify here.
Bottom line: I would suggest Wright aim higher offensively in the first round, then keep doing what he’s doing later on. Holloway is a great athlete and he’s a lock to play, plus the time lost to injury would have impacted him negatively. If he scores 15-20 goals a year for the next decade, and he might, then I think Wright’s time in Edmonton will have been well spent. I love the risky picks later on. Fantastic.
COREY PRONMAN
Old friend Corey Pronman has his organizational rankings up and the Oilers are already ranked and profiled here.
There are also several “safe” picks in the group. Tyler Tullio is already on a trajectory that exceeds his draft pedigree and I believe Nikita Yevseyev is too.
I think Tulio has the potential to be an absolute fan favorite in Edmonton. I see a Brendan Gallagher lite type player and, if he can stay healthy playing that type of style, there is real skill to this kid and a very under-rated shot (he bombed a couple one-timer goals last season).
If he had a good off-season and was able to build up some strength, he could put himself in the conversation along with Bourgault for a cup of coffee.
I would much rather call-up Tulio than, say, James Hamblin, for example.
——————-
Yeseyev – just the minutes he played in the KHL as a teenage d-man is not talked about enough let alone the fact that, from accounts, he played well and moves the puck very efficiently.
Similar to Berezkin, I have no idea if this kid even thinks about the NHL but that was a MASSIVE up-arrow season for him last year.
OriginalPouzar
August 21, 2023 12:08 pm
If one of these men turns into a legit foundation NHL player, Wright will have earned his money.
Absolutely agree with this and there are some real chances here.
Petrov may turn out to be nothing but a tweener but he also has the potential to be a legit top line winger – this player could be a 40 goal scorer on the Oilers – he also could struggle to adapt to the pro game.
Max Wanner – this kid has a wide range of tools – he’s the Mike Kesselring replacement for me (although a stronger defender at the early stages). I don’t know about the high end potential that a guy like Petrov has but Wanner could become a 22 minute 2-way guy in time. Or he could bust.
Berezkin is a total wild card, right? I mean we don’t know if we’ll ever know what the kid looks like let alone see him in the NHL. Then again, maybe he’s Drai’s winger in 2025/26.
Just one please, I’ll take two but, really, just in need of one!
I should note, I’m cheering the hardest for Petrov as that is the player the Oilers chose with the pick that Dubas refused to take to trade Hyman’s expiring rights to the Oilers.
Not only did it save the Oilers from giving Hyman and 8th year (which I was happy about at the time and remain happy) but they added Petrov!
OriginalPouzar
August 21, 2023 12:03 pm
I would propose the Reid Schaefer was a successful pick and that will never change no matter how his career goes.
From accounts, Schaefer was a must-have in the Ekholm deal, Nashville valued him quite highly so, given he was picked right at the end of the 1st round, and the Oilers got high end value in return for him – boom, successful pick!
It would be nice to see this more often. Reid can do well with a system shutdown type team but I highly doubt he would have broken into the Oilers. Too slow and not assertive enough to make the bottom 6 and no room in the top for a player like him
Not that he won’t get physical I mean attacking the net. Which is why Team Canada had him as an extra
Truth be told, the Oilers still have a wide open top 6 winger position available.
Connor Brown likely fills that to start the season and, while the Oilers will almost assuredly be attributing apx $3MM of next year’s cap to him, he very likely won’t be on the team.
Yes, the likes of Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault, Petrov, Tulio, Berezkin, Savoie will be potential options for that spot going forward but none of them are locks for it, right?
maudite
August 21, 2023 10:09 am
I dont think bourgault pick can be so easily seperated from stepping back off wallstedt when it comes to assessing scouting track record.
I agree — and that doesn’t mean I don’t like Bourgault as a pick. Rather, it’s just that the Oilers passed on the opportunity to draft a player with the potential to be a real difference maker in favour of one whose ceiling is the middle six. A poor decision.
The only reason to go with a middle of the roster forward over the (potentially) elite goaltender is that the forward is more likely to be NHL ready during their window.
Hindsight is 20 / 20 of course, but looking at the development of both prospects it doesn’t even seem that’s true.
Value contracts throughout your roster is important, and a player on his entry-level contract who can play in your middle six is nothing to sneeze at, but I’ll never understand drafting someone in the first round whose ceiling is the second or third line or 5th to 7th defender.
Draft potential difference makers in the first round, and fill out your roster in the later rounds.
It truly may not. That is completely valid point. But to me, that’s an entirely different kind of frightening concept.
If head of scouting input not key in constructing justification for value of opting for position of need over BPA in this case – window likely closes a lot quicker than required.
“Is wallstedt too good not to jump at here over trading out and shooting for potential top 6 forward that better fits shorter timelines?”
If that wasn’t asked or was answered by Wright with “I don’t think do.” And subsequently ignored….yeah….
You had Bourgault ahead of Wallstadt though, did you not?
Pretendergast
August 21, 2023 9:55 am
“If he scores 15-20 goals a year for the next decade, and he might, then I think Wright’s time in Edmonton will have been well spent. I love the risky picks later on.”
This is the kiss of death. I can already hear Holloway’s hips turn to dust.
It isn’t vital, because Spence isn’t experienced. LAK have two fine young RH blue but none with Durzi’s experience. There’s risk. I think Clarke is the better defender, you may believe it’s Spence.
The two men are not experienced. That is the risk.
Of course. I said they had options in the piece. However, there is also risk. The Kings have a rich farm team, I think us two a kindred spirits on this blog in that way.
Should be a sore spot for Leaf fans – they trade Durzi (among others) for the right so sign Jake Muzzin to a horrid contract (on the date it was signed).
I think that Durzi’s defensive game is a LONG way from Vince Dunn’s.
Geez that Mercer pick looks like a home-run. The Guhle pick doesn’t look to shabby either, they have good thing going in Montreal. In your opinion why does a Mercer takeoff and a Holloway stall obviously opportunity goes without saying. Jersey is putting Mercer in a position to succeed with his strengths. Do you think the Oilers are asking Holloway to change his game which may be effecting his confidence.
Definitely. It’s still early but in his 51 games where’s the flair he showed in Junior and the AHL he looks so vanilla. So he coughed up the puck his first shift, you have to turn this kid loose that’s his style and in return you’ll have a top 6 dynamic forward in my opinion.
He seems like a smart kid he’s doing what the Coaches are conveying to him. Let him lose Butch Goring, John Tonelli style let’s see the real Dylan Holloway.
What evidence is there that the Oilers are asking Holloway to change his game at all (except for, you know, limiting dangerous/risky plays in the neutral zone and such)?
I do agree that Woody could have/should have given Holloway a bit more rope (i.e. not moved him out of the top 6 after one shift/one mistake) but he could 4-5 opportunities up the lineup and continued to make the same type of mistake and was moved back down.
I didn’t see any change in the positives of his game through the season – I didn’t see him lose any of his motor and aggressiveness, etc.
I guess I was hoping we could have someone that’s not a top 3 pick come out of the blocks and instantly pop offensively. Maybe I should just be happy Skinner was that man last year be it in net.
You think Bouchard was handled correctly I don’t, same goes for Holloway and Lavoie this is a difference of opinion. As the saying goes “Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one….
I never said that Bouchard was handled correctly. I’ve been very express and clear with stating that I think Tippet should have found a way to work him in more games during his rookie year.
I specifically criticized Woodcroft for having too short of a leash on Holloway this past season.
With that said, I’m sure he did make mistakes early – I’m not sure if he kept committing the same type of mistake repeatedly (which Holloway did) but one thing I do know that he did that Holloway didn’t was also produce – something Holloway was unable to do
What you didn’t watch the early Playoff games. When your retired you can play a round of Golf early hit the Casino for lunch have Caesar or two come home kickback and watch the doubleheader.
It’s a big world some folks need to take off the blinders. Anyhow It’s still early in the Bouchard saga but I remember both of us mentioning while Bouchard was playing solitaire at Motel 6 that him and his agent might do a little friendly competitive payback come next contract.
Pronman’s write-up on Lavoie at The Athletic pretty much disregarded the last 4 months of last year completely – its like it was written after the prior season or this past November with no update.
Lets say Lavoie ends up being a dud and never plays a N.H.L game ever. I still don’t think it’s fair that a player who worked his ass off and was on a heater couldn’t get a few games. The 1st game of a N.H.L career or few before the year ends is huge for a player family his hard work and confidence leading up to the following year.
innercitysmytty
August 21, 2023 8:47 am
LT, do you think this is because of where the Oilers are currently at with their window to win? Or is it simply Wright’s drafting style or MO?
I think Wright has a similar mindset. Find the sure thing, even if there’s no loud home runs in the future.
Bob Dylan to perform in Canada for the first time since 2017.
Troy Hesketh! 🙂
Any relation to former Expos pitcher Joe Hesketh?
I think Tulio has the potential to be an absolute fan favorite in Edmonton. I see a Brendan Gallagher lite type player and, if he can stay healthy playing that type of style, there is real skill to this kid and a very under-rated shot (he bombed a couple one-timer goals last season).
If he had a good off-season and was able to build up some strength, he could put himself in the conversation along with Bourgault for a cup of coffee.
I would much rather call-up Tulio than, say, James Hamblin, for example.
——————-
Yeseyev – just the minutes he played in the KHL as a teenage d-man is not talked about enough let alone the fact that, from accounts, he played well and moves the puck very efficiently.
Similar to Berezkin, I have no idea if this kid even thinks about the NHL but that was a MASSIVE up-arrow season for him last year.
Absolutely agree with this and there are some real chances here.
Petrov may turn out to be nothing but a tweener but he also has the potential to be a legit top line winger – this player could be a 40 goal scorer on the Oilers – he also could struggle to adapt to the pro game.
Max Wanner – this kid has a wide range of tools – he’s the Mike Kesselring replacement for me (although a stronger defender at the early stages). I don’t know about the high end potential that a guy like Petrov has but Wanner could become a 22 minute 2-way guy in time. Or he could bust.
Berezkin is a total wild card, right? I mean we don’t know if we’ll ever know what the kid looks like let alone see him in the NHL. Then again, maybe he’s Drai’s winger in 2025/26.
Just one please, I’ll take two but, really, just in need of one!
I should note, I’m cheering the hardest for Petrov as that is the player the Oilers chose with the pick that Dubas refused to take to trade Hyman’s expiring rights to the Oilers.
Not only did it save the Oilers from giving Hyman and 8th year (which I was happy about at the time and remain happy) but they added Petrov!
I would propose the Reid Schaefer was a successful pick and that will never change no matter how his career goes.
From accounts, Schaefer was a must-have in the Ekholm deal, Nashville valued him quite highly so, given he was picked right at the end of the 1st round, and the Oilers got high end value in return for him – boom, successful pick!
It would be nice to see this more often. Reid can do well with a system shutdown type team but I highly doubt he would have broken into the Oilers. Too slow and not assertive enough to make the bottom 6 and no room in the top for a player like him
Not that he won’t get physical I mean attacking the net. Which is why Team Canada had him as an extra
Truth be told, the Oilers still have a wide open top 6 winger position available.
Connor Brown likely fills that to start the season and, while the Oilers will almost assuredly be attributing apx $3MM of next year’s cap to him, he very likely won’t be on the team.
Yes, the likes of Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault, Petrov, Tulio, Berezkin, Savoie will be potential options for that spot going forward but none of them are locks for it, right?
I dont think bourgault pick can be so easily seperated from stepping back off wallstedt when it comes to assessing scouting track record.
I agree — and that doesn’t mean I don’t like Bourgault as a pick. Rather, it’s just that the Oilers passed on the opportunity to draft a player with the potential to be a real difference maker in favour of one whose ceiling is the middle six. A poor decision.
The only reason to go with a middle of the roster forward over the (potentially) elite goaltender is that the forward is more likely to be NHL ready during their window.
Hindsight is 20 / 20 of course, but looking at the development of both prospects it doesn’t even seem that’s true.
Value contracts throughout your roster is important, and a player on his entry-level contract who can play in your middle six is nothing to sneeze at, but I’ll never understand drafting someone in the first round whose ceiling is the second or third line or 5th to 7th defender.
Draft potential difference makers in the first round, and fill out your roster in the later rounds.
Is his ceiling middle six though? I think his ceiling is more like top 6, but he may be more likely to be a middle six player.
I’m not sure what that has to do with Tyler Wright, but it’s an interesting argument.
It truly may not. That is completely valid point. But to me, that’s an entirely different kind of frightening concept.
If head of scouting input not key in constructing justification for value of opting for position of need over BPA in this case – window likely closes a lot quicker than required.
“Is wallstedt too good not to jump at here over trading out and shooting for potential top 6 forward that better fits shorter timelines?”
If that wasn’t asked or was answered by Wright with “I don’t think do.” And subsequently ignored….yeah….
I think Wallstedt is a fine prospect. He finished No. 23 among AHL goalies in save percentage last season. 5th among rookies.
You had Bourgault ahead of Wallstadt though, did you not?
“If he scores 15-20 goals a year for the next decade, and he might, then I think Wright’s time in Edmonton will have been well spent. I love the risky picks later on.”
This is the kiss of death. I can already hear Holloway’s hips turn to dust.
Then my work here is done.
Just read your Risky Business piece at the Athletic and found your Durzi trade caution to be missing a vital piece of information.
Yes, the Kings thinned out their RD herd a bit but there is another actor in play should Brandt Clarke not pop right away.
Jordan Spence is too good for the AHL and although it’s a small sample size, he’s already been dynamic in the NHL.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&playerid=8481606&sit=5v5&stype=2
It isn’t vital, because Spence isn’t experienced. LAK have two fine young RH blue but none with Durzi’s experience. There’s risk. I think Clarke is the better defender, you may believe it’s Spence.
The two men are not experienced. That is the risk.
Not at all.
Clarke is likely a Calder candidate this fall but Spence is certainly a credible backup as 7 or 8 D.
Of course inexperience is always an issue as young players make their way.
Yes. Durzi leaving allows for increased risk. Which is the title of the article.
Clarke replacing Durzi also freed up almost $1 million in cap space.
Considering the Kings have only $123K remaining keeping Durzi would have required nixing another move.
Pretty sure the Kings considered the risk but decided having both Clarke and Spence available mitigated that risk to a large degree.
It’s great to have depth at RD but if you have 5 RD a couple of them will be blocked from getting experience.
Of course. I said they had options in the piece. However, there is also risk. The Kings have a rich farm team, I think us two a kindred spirits on this blog in that way.
The Durzi trade seems like a sore spot, eh?
I think Durzi could be the next Vince Dunn in a year or two.
Durzi is a good player and Blake might have got more for him if he was patient.
However, he had to make room for Brandt Clarke who he (and I) is convinced is going to be a very special player.
That he also has Spence as 4RD makes any risk very minimal.
There is every reason to believe Spence at 22 will be as good as Durzi.
Having 3 young RD vying for one roster spot just isn’t optimal for development.
Not to mention an extra million in cap space.
“Clarke is likely a Calder candidate” don’t jinx the poor kid!
If this was an Oilers prospect you’d be all over the fact note he’s only played 14 games in the pros.
Nobody will remember Brandt Clarke on an LA team set to be a Bubble team for the next ten years.
Its stunning in the NHL that Rob Blake and Brad Trevliving have jobs. Utterly incompetent GMing.
Should be a sore spot for Leaf fans – they trade Durzi (among others) for the right so sign Jake Muzzin to a horrid contract (on the date it was signed).
I think that Durzi’s defensive game is a LONG way from Vince Dunn’s.
A long way ahead or a long way behind? Dunn was the most sheltered defenseman in the league just a couple of years ago.
I know this has been posted before but I’m unsure of the placing number. Where are the Oilers rated prospect wise compared to the rest of the league?
25th.
Pronman’s new rankings have started dropping today.
https://theathletic.com/4778405/2023/08/21/nhl-pipeline-rankings-2023-prospects/?source=user_shared_article
Should read 28th
Geez that Mercer pick looks like a home-run. The Guhle pick doesn’t look to shabby either, they have good thing going in Montreal. In your opinion why does a Mercer takeoff and a Holloway stall obviously opportunity goes without saying. Jersey is putting Mercer in a position to succeed with his strengths. Do you think the Oilers are asking Holloway to change his game which may be effecting his confidence.
Injuries have to be part of the Holloway story.
Definitely. It’s still early but in his 51 games where’s the flair he showed in Junior and the AHL he looks so vanilla. So he coughed up the puck his first shift, you have to turn this kid loose that’s his style and in return you’ll have a top 6 dynamic forward in my opinion.
Isn’t his M.O. to lead with vanilla and ramp it up later?
In any event, I don’t know that he got a tonne of opportunity.
He seems like a smart kid he’s doing what the Coaches are conveying to him. Let him lose Butch Goring, John Tonelli style let’s see the real Dylan Holloway.
Loose
What evidence is there that the Oilers are asking Holloway to change his game at all (except for, you know, limiting dangerous/risky plays in the neutral zone and such)?
I do agree that Woody could have/should have given Holloway a bit more rope (i.e. not moved him out of the top 6 after one shift/one mistake) but he could 4-5 opportunities up the lineup and continued to make the same type of mistake and was moved back down.
I didn’t see any change in the positives of his game through the season – I didn’t see him lose any of his motor and aggressiveness, etc.
I guess I was hoping we could have someone that’s not a top 3 pick come out of the blocks and instantly pop offensively. Maybe I should just be happy Skinner was that man last year be it in net.
Ya, we were all hoping but he didn’t – he was provided opportunity and didn’t instantly pop offensively.
I’m not sure what that has to do with discussion a suggestion that the coaching staff is asking him to change his game.
You think Bouchard was handled correctly I don’t, same goes for Holloway and Lavoie this is a difference of opinion. As the saying goes “Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one….
I never said that Bouchard was handled correctly. I’ve been very express and clear with stating that I think Tippet should have found a way to work him in more games during his rookie year.
I specifically criticized Woodcroft for having too short of a leash on Holloway this past season.
I seen Caulfield make some ghastly early mistakes yet they kept him leash free. The Habs made it to the final and he was a huge reason behind Price.
Did you really?
You were watching all these Habs games?
With that said, I’m sure he did make mistakes early – I’m not sure if he kept committing the same type of mistake repeatedly (which Holloway did) but one thing I do know that he did that Holloway didn’t was also produce – something Holloway was unable to do
What you didn’t watch the early Playoff games. When your retired you can play a round of Golf early hit the Casino for lunch have Caesar or two come home kickback and watch the doubleheader.
Some folks think they’re the only ones who actually watch non-Oiler games but still profess they are experts on the entire league.
It’s a big world some folks need to take off the blinders. Anyhow It’s still early in the Bouchard saga but I remember both of us mentioning while Bouchard was playing solitaire at Motel 6 that him and his agent might do a little friendly competitive payback come next contract.
Wow, Pronman sure doesn’t like Lavoie. I guess it’s too early to quote for those who don’t have access.
When your ELC is done and you haven’t even seen a minute of ice time in the bigs your stock plummets. The Habs organization is waiting to pounce.
Pronman’s write-up on Lavoie at The Athletic pretty much disregarded the last 4 months of last year completely – its like it was written after the prior season or this past November with no update.
Lets say Lavoie ends up being a dud and never plays a N.H.L game ever. I still don’t think it’s fair that a player who worked his ass off and was on a heater couldn’t get a few games. The 1st game of a N.H.L career or few before the year ends is huge for a player family his hard work and confidence leading up to the following year.
LT, do you think this is because of where the Oilers are currently at with their window to win? Or is it simply Wright’s drafting style or MO?
I think Wright has a similar mindset. Find the sure thing, even if there’s no loud home runs in the future.
I’m not sure. All I know is the Oilers rarely draft like this historically.
Why are you considering Bourgault a safe pick?
He had lots of offense on draft day and took another step in draft +1.
It feels a bit like revisionist history to call him safe since he brought less offense but more responsibility in his 1st pro season.
He was very protectable as a top 6 on draft day IMO, and of course may get back on that track this season (or potentially not).