One Night with Blue Note

by Lowetide

The rookies played their second and final game of camp last night in Caglary, at the historic Saddledome. I made some observations.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

LINEUP

Benson – Marody – Hebig
B. Starrett – McLeod – Maksimov
Safin – Iacobellis – Lavoie
Vesey – Stukel – Keeler

Samorukov – Bouchard
Cap – Day
Bellamy – Desharnais

Rodrigue
Skinner

Out: Yamamoto, De Jong

NOTES, FIRST PERIOD

Weak goal allowed by Olivier Rodrigue, marksmen Glenn Gawdin gets past Dmitri Samorukov and goes stick side. Nice skill.

Logan Day made a nice defensive play on what could have been a two-on-none. He pushed his way to the puck and cleared the danger.

Six minutes in, a nifty pass Tyler Benson to Cooper Marody for the first solid look of the game for Edmonton. Not a great shot but a quick release.

Terrible giveaway by I believe Beau Starrett via Ryan McLeod’s heater and it leads to a point blank chance and goal by Ruzicka. Terrible.

Nine minutes in, Logan Day makes a nice pinch and Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Cameron Hebig get some passing success. Nice sequence, Flames to the PP. Benson is playing with an edge in these games, that’ll get him noticed. Not a good penalty here, though.

Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov are once again quality on the PK. Great forechecking by both and lots of effort. Nice save by Olivier Rodrigue.

Beau Starrett gets a SH chance, draws a penalty. Some nice looks, impressed by Evan Bouchard and Cooper Marody but no goals.

19 minutes in, Nolan Vesey with a burst and receives a lovely pass for what was probably the best chance for Edmonton in the period. Logan Day with the pass.

First Period Summary: Rodrigue gave up a goal he should stop but after that settled in. Samorukov had a tough rookie camp a year ago and it looks like he’s starting in similar fashion this year. The Benson-Marody-Hebig line is the only thing the team has going offensively up front, Evan Bouchard is sublime.

NOTES, SECOND PERIOD

Much better start to the second, top line gets the puck in deep, Dmitri Samorukov shot from the point is held.

Lavoie on a jailbreak, nice pass and no one can handle it. Lordy.

PP had a nice sequence, Benson to Marody but they couldn’t get a shot.

Samorukov, who has been inconsistent, makes a deft pass to Starrett, who feeds Lavoie for a real nice chance. A little momentum for the road team as we approach the midway point.

Ostap Safin to Iacobellis and my goodness what a save! Best chance by far for the Oilers rookies. In either game.

Evan Bouchard with a nice rush, his speed appears to be better this season. Early days.

Oilers to the PK, Rodrigue with a nice save early on in the five-on-four. He made another nice save, his 22nd, on the same PK, 32 minutes into the game.

Samorukov flattened a Flame at center ice.

Very nice save by Rodrigue on a long distance seeing eye shot from the point.

Second Period Summary: More of the same really, I don’t think any Oilers player beyond Olivier Rodrigue should consider it a great night. Bouchard is outstanding at this level, as one would expect. The Benson-Marody-Hebig line is noticeable, and getting looks, but there’s a hitch in their giddyup each time.

NOTES, THIRD PERIOD

Oilers get an early power play, win the draw and Evan Bouchard scores on one of those patented point shots that find daylight. 100 minutes into the rookie tournament, Oilers score: Bouchard (1) from Starrett.

Edmonton gets a power play but they’re not sharp at all. Lavoie gains the line and sends a terrible short pass that is intercepted. What’s more, Ruzicka gets the puck and owns it for days, at one point causing a four-on-one ‘swarm’ look to the power play, 100 miles away from the Calgary net.

Benson gets a good shot off from a nice pass from Bouchard. That could have tied it.

Marody had what looked like a promising sortie, but the net came of its moorings. The chem isn’t there for other lines, the Marody trio are going to have to make it happen (or Bouchard).

9.5 minutes in, Rodrigue makes another solid save on a tip from a point shot. A few minutes later another outstanding save on a point blank chance.

God they’re bad. Can’t make passes for love nor money.

Nice save by Rodrigue 14 minutes in. He’s the story

Third period summary: Olivier Rodrigue was outstanding, he really showed what he’s made of after a poor start. He stopped 40 of 42, .952 To my eye, Evan Bouchard also played well. The Benson-Marody-Hebig line had chances but couldn’t cash. We’re on to Rogers.

ROOKIE CAMP THOUGHTS

First, let’s all calm down. It was two games and to my eye there were three (Bouchard, Benson, Marody) possible NHL players on the entire roster. From the Calgary side, well done. Their farm system is flourishing and from the lineup who played for Calgary one has to believe Dillon Dube, Glenn Gawdin, Jakob Pelletier, Matthew Phillips, Adam Ruzicka, Dmitry Zavgorodniy, Eetu Tuulola Bankhead and others have a real chance to make it. Edmonton is better in terms of defensive prospects but the gap among forwards is real.

My list of players who helped themselves (Rodrigue, Bouchard, Benson and Marody aside) include Cameron Hebig, who was a buzzsaw and honestly might have been the best player on the top line; Beau Starrett, who made a ghastly play on the second GA but drew a penalty and earned the only assist by an Oilers player in rookie camp; Dylan Wells.

BENSON AND MARODY

We’re probably going to hear a lot about them today, but Marody was injured in game one, had a better game two but couldn’t cash. Benson did many good things (strong board work, physical, great passing) but nothing rhymed. Folks, we’re talking (probably) 30 minutes work for both men. They’ll get a chance to show what they can do in preseason and I expect at least two games for each man. I’ve predicted both will get sent down to Bakersfield and return midseason, but you can’t make any sweeping statements based on these two games.

JAY WOODCROFT

Buddy had three defensemen he would be familiar with and two of them weren’t firing on all cylinders. I’m thrilled he’s back in Bakersfield for another year. He is a big piece of the puzzle.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A busy morning kicks off with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll chat about last night’s game and some of the big training camp battles. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will also drop in and we’ll talk NFL Week Two. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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OriginalPouzar

godot: The coach told the playersto show him and the braintrust what got them here.It is easier for a coach to dial back aggressive correct tactics than to dial up and fix passive incorrect ones.

Samourukov was doing the right thing.Some of the other four guys on the ice were NOT.

I don’t agree – not identifying what teamates are doing on the ice and making a play leading to a HD scoring change – that is not the right play.

Part of “showing the coach what got them there” is making the right play at the right time.

Sammy made a bunch of poor decisions.

defmn

godot10: The coach told the playersto show him and the braintrust what got them here.It is easier for a coach to dial back aggressive correct tactics than to dial up and fix passive incorrect ones.

Samourukov was doing the right thing.Some of the other four guys on the ice were NOT.

This is why other players usually got blamed for stuff, when the primary mistake was Russell surrendering the blueline without a fight.

The point of rookie camp is to identify the players who are capable to doing the right thing when the systems proper are introduced later in camp.

If a D is already surrendering the blue line in rookie camp, well, that D has a long long ways to go.

This whole discussion is confusing me. You do know that the play under discussion was at the Flame’s blue line as they were attempting to break out – not defending his own blue line as they were trying to gain entry?

Jethro Tull

OriginalPouzar: I am generally not aware of things that aren’t true.

Possibly the most philosophically deep statement ever made here.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Sure, the forward may not have been backchecking hard enough – mistake on the forward.

At the same time, Samorukov not recognizing this and stepping up – mistake on Samorukov’s part.

If Samorukov’s game includes not being aware of what his 4 icemates are doing and simply going about “his game”, well, then “his game” is not very good and will never be NHL ready.

The coach told the players to show him and the braintrust what got them here. It is easier for a coach to dial back aggressive correct tactics than to dial up and fix passive incorrect ones.

Samourukov was doing the right thing. Some of the other four guys on the ice were NOT.

This is why other players usually got blamed for stuff, when the primary mistake was Russell surrendering the blueline without a fight.

The point of rookie camp is to identify the players who are capable to doing the right thing when the systems proper are introduced later in camp.

If a D is already surrendering the blue line in rookie camp, well, that D has a long long ways to go.

Pouzar

Glovjuice:
Is it just me or has LT been coming at OP a fair bit the last week or so ? Seems like some subtle discipline occurring.

It’s gotta Specter/Ross kinda vibe for sure.

russ99

The whole “standing up at the line” argument is kind of silly.

Almost all NHL teams implement a trapping system to make controlled zone entry more difficult. Tippett will be more of a proponent of this than many of our recent coaches.

When this trapping occurs, players and the puck are moving, so there’s a read and react aspect.

And despite this, no matter what we do, the opposition still gains the zone, and still shoots 25-40 shots a night.

I’m way more interested in defensive play after the opponent gains the zone rather than before they gain the zone.

IMO the hardline on this by the shot metrics community is due to:

This idea being used to further the opinion and preference that somehow more traffic at our blue line results in more chances on the rush, which is just one way to score goals.

Same goes for that Duane Sutter quote idea that defense doesn’t matter, only getting the puck back matters.

Something happens between opposition entry and when we get the puck back and it plays a pretty large factor in whether we win the game or not, and it relies on all 5 skaters and the goalie.

OriginalPouzar

russ:
OriginalPouzar,

He’s a qualified unsigned RFA, so no.

Inside joke russ – comment was said in jest….

OriginalPouzar

godot: The forwards were not backchecking hard enough.Samourukov stopped his man.The man who got past him was the guy a forward should have had, but the forward was lazy getting back.

Woodcroft told the players to play their game.Show him and the brain trust in the press box what you got.Not to compensate for the mistakes of other players and not play the way that got you here.

I want a D who is not going to surrender the blue line.I will find forwards to back check and back pressure.

The failure on the goal was not Samourukov’s.

Sure, the forward may not have been backchecking hard enough – mistake on the forward.

At the same time, Samorukov not recognizing this and stepping up – mistake on Samorukov’s part.

If Samorukov’s game includes not being aware of what his 4 icemates are doing and simply going about “his game”, well, then “his game” is not very good and will never be NHL ready.

russ99

OriginalPouzar,

He’s a qualified unsigned RFA, so no.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice:
Is it just me or has LT been coming at OP a fair bit the last week or so ? Seems like some subtle discipline occurring.

Should Puljujarvi be on the 50 man contract list?

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: It is NOT a prerequisite for participation in the community. Making me spell prerequisite is more likely to get you punted.

I have essentially zero qualifications, this I am well aware of.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Cassandra,

This will surely provoke some post about how ricki created hockey analytics in the 1700s before hockey was invented and you are just some dum dum SJW for questioning his brilliant theories.

Sing it with me: SIGN FISTRIC SIGN FISTRIC SIGN FISTRIC!

Cassandra

rickithebear:

I am now aware that you had no clue GA is 100% Dmen & Goalie performance per corsi.

Get rid of your Misknowledge!

Ricki bringing the delusional and the deranged. He’s our hometown gnostic preacher. Only he knows and the rest of us should wake up.

But the rest of it is the real treat. We should make a list of his proven axioms.

I will summarize.

1) Assists don’t matter
2) Forwards don’t make a difference on defense (they don’t prevent goals)
3) Defense don’t make a difference on offense (they don’t score goals)
4) The baseline expectations for a LW are lower than a center because centers are in the middle of the ice (this one is my personal favourite)

This is so out of date for how hockey is actually played there aren’t words to describe it. The names of positions have never mattered less in hockey than they do right now, while Ricki thinks they are, or should be, static stick figures locked in a single place on the ice.

His views aren’t even wrong. They are utterly disconnected from reality.

OriginalPouzar

Training camp starts today. Just reporting and physicals and such but, HELL YA! Let’s get this started.

As per the GM, there will be some initial cuts prior to the end of the weekend.

Side

Lowetide: Just you. There’s no one on my shit list at this time.

Do you at least have anyone on your piss list?

defmn

Lowetide: Just you. There’s no one on my shit list at this time.

So you are saying the position is still open? 😉

godot10

SkatinginSand: Holding the line is NOT the correct play when you are in an outnumbered situation. Recognizing this is a vital skill.

The forwards were not backchecking hard enough. Samourukov stopped his man. The man who got past him was the guy a forward should have had, but the forward was lazy getting back.

Woodcroft told the players to play their game. Show him and the brain trust in the press box what you got. Not to compensate for the mistakes of other players and not play the way that got you here.

I want a D who is not going to surrender the blue line. I will find forwards to back check and back pressure.

The failure on the goal was not Samourukov’s.

Glovjuice

Is it just me or has LT been coming at OP a fair bit the last week or so ? Seems like some subtle discipline occurring.

Bank Shot

OriginalPouzar: What, is this true?

Tons on non-first round picks play in the NHL in their draft plus 1 years.

The first guy I clicked on did:Messier, drafted in the 3rd round in 1979 and played 75 games in the NHL in 1979/89.

Not a 2nd rounder by non-1st round pedigree.

My bad, I was wrong. That’s why I put possibly the only second rounder to do so. haha. I couldn’t recall seeing anyone else beside O’Reilly from memory.

Anyway as GeorgeXS pointed out, Bergeron and O’Reilly are the only non-first round picks since 2000 to play 20+ games in the NHL Draft+1.

It’s a very rare path, and the players who do so are clearly special.

At this point I believe a guy like Tyler Pitlick is a more apt comparison for McLeod. I would hope that McLeod suffers fewer injuries and can navigate a better path to the NHL.

Glovjuice

Is there anybody out there? (OP is)

Just nod if you can hear me.

Welcome Ken, welcome to the Machine.

OriginalPouzar

I am generally not aware of things that aren’t true.

Forward’s have zero impact on GA is not reality.

Who his a “hockey analyst”? I sure am not. Didn’t realize it was a pre-req for participation in the community.

geowal

OriginalPouzar: I can’t disagree with this, however, a player can impact the lineup without “moving the needle” individually, per se.
For example, a guy like Benson being able to be serviceable as a 2LW could do each of the following:

All those things you list I would call moving the needle. My point is I don’t think that will happen (Benson LW this season). I don’t see any of the players last night playing 40 games this season. Happy to be proved wrong.

rickithebear

SkatinginSand: Holding the line is NOT the correct play when you are in an outnumbered situation. Recognizing this is a vital skill.

Bang on!

Any Knowledgable hockey fan uses this mantra.

– available Forward colapse to defend the NZ is event 1 with 2 D.
Trying to reduce entry and CA rates.

– Dmen or Dman with forward colapse to provide 2D-1G or 1F – 1D -1G def of true DZ ( HD area) ( homeplate) is event 2. Rather than a terrible 1D – 1G def of true DZ area..
Trying to reduce Open SH% & HD shot density which establish save% baseline for goalies.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar: You asked for ESG and I provided you ESG – well, 5 on 5 G.

When talking ESG measure of forwards that is entry, corsi, HDarea penetration, Open shot targeting.
IE. Even Goals For.

I am now aware that you had no clue GA is 100% Dmen & Goalie performance per corsi.
And other than Entry and Corsi per 60 being forward dependent.
the scoreability of any puck is about D & goalie reduction performance relative to the penetration/open targeting of the player directing the Corsi.

Get rid of your Misknowledge!
I was asking for evgf which any Knowledgeable hockey analyst knows is a forward ability to penetrate and target high success open net space while facing difrent quality of HD SH, Open Sh Dmen & Open HD save% goalies.

You are a smart guy.
You are a product of Hockey misknowledge taught to you thru the years.

SkatinginSand

godot10: It is not the fault of the defensemen for standing up at the blueline.If something bad happens, it is the fault of others.He D partner for leaving the centre open, or forwards, for not providing sufficient back pressure, and getting caught up ice.Defending the blue line is the right thing the vast majority of the time.Forwards should be skating harder backwards towards their own zone than forwards into the attacking zone.

Some people have been watching Russell play hockey badly too much.

Holding the line is NOT the correct play when you are in an outnumbered situation. Recognizing this is a vital skill.

rickithebear

Ken Holland presser:
RE Bouchard.
“ he is not fighting for 7 spots he is fighting for 6 spots.”
You are not in starting lineup you are in the AHL.

Suspect that mantra is for forwards as well.
Not starting down to the A.

Tippett.
Bottom 6 PK forwards.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear:
Using GA as a measure of Forward play is a terrible scientific method given the 100% Dman- goalie affect from CA ( point of release of the puck)
Dmen: density, Quality of shot
Goalie: Open shot saves.

You asked for ESG and I provided you ESG – well, 5 on 5 G.

rickithebear

Hockey Knowledge:

You need to understand what creates championship success.

Before you can understand what player and scheme mechanisms are championship effective.
IE. Hockey Knowledge

Their is a lot of traditional misknowledge that exists!
It is often counter to championship GA and GF play.

rickithebear

I allways fail to understand how sports scheme savvy people on this blog are often single sport minded.
I allways reference like scheme mechanics from diffrent sports.
It is very helpful.

In football: the difference between Man and zone Scheme in def pass coverage.
A DB OR LB would play over ( shadow) ( man cover) a pass canidate, Rec., TE, HB, RB.
Or
They would drop into assigned zones
– to defend specific QB pass lanes.
– to pick up and man cover critical players in their zone based on read.

Now DL are included in
– Man shadow of TE & RB
– zone drop back of QB passing lanes.

That is what differentiates man vs NZ def in hockey, that I talk of.
One is man cover/shadow of opps in their DZ and edge of NZ.

NZ trap is zonal coverage of
– traditional opp pass lanes
Or
– Man coverage in NZ.
As Schilly says clog the middle.

This is all basic sports mechanics.
Which any good multi sports analyst would know.

I know, like successful def schemes are successful across different sports.

That is why my theory (Belichek & me) looking for top baseline ( mistake free) players is a function of winning NFL player recruitment.
It is also reflected in my ( championship/ cup core) roster theory.

(False eye affect) is looking at minimal % top and brutal play to define players in multiple sports.
Does not equate to true baseline success as a team.

It is clearly not self evident on this blog.
Which I repeated fail to remember.

But part of this site is learning sports play truths.

OriginalPouzar

Patrice Bergeron – 2nd round pick – played his draft plus 1 season in the NHL – 39 points.

Yes, draft plus 2 was AHL but that was lockout year.

OriginalPouzar

BankShot: The danger about using ROR as any kind of comparable is that he is the only second round pick in possibly the history of the NHL to step into the NHL immediately after being drafted.

What, is this true?

Tons on non-first round picks play in the NHL in their draft plus 1 years.

The first guy I clicked on did: Messier, drafted in the 3rd round in 1979 and played 75 games in the NHL in 1979/89.

Not a 2nd rounder by non-1st round pedigree.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Sorry but I simply cannot agree with this.

I watched the entirety of both games and he either mistimed his move or was simply beat by the flames and their structure.

Yes, of course, defence is a full team concept, all 5 need to be working together, however, Sammy was making individual mistakes, both mental and in effectiveness. Part of that aggressive defence of the blueline is knowing where your teammates are and identifying the situation.

Not even Adam Larsson is able to step up with half the frequency Sammy did in junior and was trying to do in these two games.

He’s 20 – he’ll adjust with development and experience.

This is a very good description and assessment of the situation, OP. GODOT, im very surprised that this is the analysis you put forward – certainly below your level of hockey knowledge.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar: In a three year aggregate:

The trip played 344 minutes togther and GF/60 was 2.96.This actually goes up a bit without Tatar during that time (in 193 minutes).

Issue is the GA/60 skyrockets from from 1.22/60 with Tatar to over 4 without him.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20132014&thruseason=20152016&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=DET&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2014-10-08&td=2015-04-11&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476430&p2=8475772&p3=8475193&p4=0&p5=0

CA is a measure of forward def effectiveness.
Allowing Dmen to press the Blue for entry prevention.

It is 100% reflected by
1. Coaches decision on NZ def schemes.
2. Is the NZ scheme run Yes/No
3. Was a rover deep preventing the ability to run NZ scheme Y/N
4. 100% coaches decision FO ZS
5. 100% Bench ZS with or without pocession.

GA is a measure of dmen performance to their side and Goalie performance to each dman side.

Dmen dictate a baseline save% to their side.
1. By being present or not present in a 2D-1G HD def structure in the real def zone, the HD area
( homeplate).
A 1D-1G structure is a real bad thing.
2. Shot Quality: Dmen who cause the lowest % of corsi to be scorable (Open shot) make goalies job the easiest.
Best in the game like Stevens, Languay, Russell are very important.
It is a per Corsi rate. Dependent on Forward NZ def.
3. Shot density: dmen who keep the highest % of shots further away from the net. Greatly reduce the e shot success density.
4. The combination of Shot quality & density to a dmans side establishes a save% baseline for the goalie to perform around.

Goalies
1. Goalies have a +ve/ -ve Open HD SH save% relative to the baseline established by Dmen to thier side.

That is what affects GA.

Forwards can dictate the entry rates and Corsi rates by NZ Defence.

Using GA or GF% as a measure of Forward play is brutal scientific method.

True forward def measure:
1. Looking at CA for with or without.
Is a first look.
A poor But correct look compared to GA.
It reduces the error from 100% to slightly lower %

2. Then looking at 2 given Zone starts.
A. Comparing CA for FO zone start WOWY.
The FO zone start must be the same.
If not, you are looking at 16 diffrent of 128/256 diffrent team/ comp/ZS situation group Entry/60 & Corsi/60 averages to compare performance against.
It greatly reduces the error %.

Looking at top 9 fwd (93) even min LW/C/RW CA/60 range ( greater population of 45+% FO ZS) but does not differentiate for Bench change.
We get a more accurate CA/60 range.

18/19 CA/60 range
93 LW (710:50) 47.21 -69.03
93 C (994) 47.82 – 68.69
93 RW (489) 44.08 – 68.12

93RW 17 <45%FO ZS 44.08 – 62.06
93C 11 <45% FO ZS 56.72 – 65.61
93LW 14 <45% FO ZS 51.64 – 65.90

31LW (1050) 50.06 – 62.02 CA/60
31C (1221) 53.00 – 63.45
31RW (1060) 52.14 – 63.45

31 LW 0< 45%; 3 < 50.5%; 5 < 53.6%
31C 1 < 45%; 7 < 50.5%; 9 < 53.6%
31RW 2 < 45%; 2 < 50.5%; 6 < 53.6%

Some interesting results.

First question is much higher CA/60 range for top 31 with 93.5 – 100% 45+% FO ZS.
Is it reflective of:
– forwards being deep not running NZ trap.
– 3-1-1-1 Structure from rovers deep not running NZ trap.
– running PvP tough comp situation.
– no measure of bench ZS that is 50-60% reflective of with or without pocession.

OP:

Using GA as a measure of Forward play is a terrible scientific method given the 100% Dman- goalie affect from CA ( point of release of the puck)
Dmen: density, Quality of shot
Goalie: Open shot saves.

Their are too many Variables that have not been differentiated for to establish a true situation baseline.
For forward CA/60.

These are all player usage facts that are supported by video evidence and Data.

Bank Shot

OriginalPouzar: Great post and very interesting thought on the O’Riley comparison.

Similar draft pedigree, similar OHL production, similar skill-set.

I don’t know what “issues” ROR had to overcome to become who he is – we have an idea with McLeod – the “parts are better than the sum” likely do lack of drive and willigness to go to certain area and play some “hard minutes”.Don’t know if ROR was similar.

Even O’Rilely light would be amazing.

Lets not forget that it took 5 post draft years plus for O’Riley to become O’Riley.Although he didn’t play in the AHL, he needed time to develop and, perhaps, would have developed at a quicker pace with some AHL time.

I don’t know about PPG – take away this one past year and ROR is more of an 0.8 PPG guy.

The danger about using ROR as any kind of comparable is that he is the only second round pick in possibly the history of the NHL to step into the NHL immediately after being drafted.

He stepped into a shutdown role and penalty killer role behind Stastny/Duchene straight out of the draft.

His 20 year old season (3rd NHL season)he scored 55 points in the NHL.

Mcleod is so far behind the line in the sand that ROR set that it isn’t fair to use ROR as a comp imo.

OriginalPouzar

Camp Roster – this should be helpful for numbers as well:

# GOALTENDERS

19 Mikko Koskinen
32 Olivier Rodrigue
50 Stuart Skinner
41 Mike Smith
40 Shane Starrett
30 Dylan Wells

# DEFENCEMEN

74 Ethan Bear
83 Matt Benning
75 Evan Bouchard
90 Logan Day
82 Caleb Jones
77 Oscar Klefbom
88 Jake Kulevich
84 William Lagesson
6 Adam Larsson
47 Keegan Lowe
26 Brandon Manning
25 Darnell Nurse
36 Joel Persson
4 Kris Russell
78 Dmitri Samorukov

# FORWARDS

15 Josh Archibald
49 Tyler Benson
28 Kyle Brodziak
12 Colby Cave
39 Alex Chiasson RW
43 Josh Currie
29 Leon Draisaitl
55 Luke Esposito
362
2260

89 Sam Gagner
45 Joseph Gambardella
60 Markus Granlund
91 Gaetan Haas
42 Cameron Hebig
92 Tomas Jurco LW
44 Zack Kassian RW
16 Jujhar Khaira
62 Raphael Lavoie
72 Kirill Maksimov
24 Brad Malone
65 Cooper Marody
97 Connor McDavid
70 Ryan McLeod
18 James Neal
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
10 Joakim Nygard
38 Anthony Peluso
52 Patrick Russell
59 Ostap Safin
23 Riley Sheahan
54 Beau Starrett
68 Nolan Vesey
56 Kailer Yamamoto

OriginalPouzar

ScungilliSlushy: Ha!

I don’t think Tip plays trap. He’s a central ice clogger. Teams should push play to the low percentage areas. Take away good ice he says.

The Blues did what most teams couldn’t against Boston, the took the Bergeron Marchand triangle away.

So simple and it meant to get to the blue paint in front it had to be all beating players one on one. And they couldn’t. A lot of jam plays at net side (would have worked against the Oilers last season) no joy.

I remember some Blue saying they stopped chasing them and occupied the space they normally pass out to.

If the Oilers don’t have to play some complicated D system and just do the simple and effective, given they have more dangerous forwards it could work out well. As Holland has said they just need the helpers the hard part is getting the drivers.

One caveat is that O Reilly is a special player and the Oilers have no forward like that. If they can find the shit down forward that can score well watch out. Nuge is awesome but doesn’t have the size and range O Reilly does.

McLeod should have RoR as his role model. Both were meh junior scorers. If McLeod can find around a better point per game in the NHL and use his blazing speed and defensive ability he could be a lynchpin. I’m don’t think he has the crust RoR has , but he could study it, he’s not going to be an offense first player.

Great post and very interesting thought on the O’Riley comparison.

Similar draft pedigree, similar OHL production, similar skill-set.

I don’t know what “issues” ROR had to overcome to become who he is – we have an idea with McLeod – the “parts are better than the sum” likely do lack of drive and willigness to go to certain area and play some “hard minutes”. Don’t know if ROR was similar.

Even O’Rilely light would be amazing.

Lets not forget that it took 5 post draft years plus for O’Riley to become O’Riley. Although he didn’t play in the AHL, he needed time to develop and, perhaps, would have developed at a quicker pace with some AHL time.

I don’t know about PPG – take away this one past year and ROR is more of an 0.8 PPG guy.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: That was a play where I thought the same thing – it looked like a coaching adjustment, knowing Sammy was going to step up and a tactic devised to get around him with numbers.

Even if that particular play wasn’t a pre-scouted tactic, you know NHL and AHL teams will indeed scout and adjust.

I expect some “struggles” in this regard for Sammy earlier in the year but, working with Manson and learning will help him improve – I guess that’s what we call “development in the proper league”.

We are on the same page on this one OP. The moment I saw it I thought of what you have been saying. 😉

And I agree this is just coaching and development. Much easier to loosen the strings than tighten them if that makes sense. That boy has compete.

HT Joe

hunter1909: I’ll stake everything I know about pro sports on Holland+Tippett turning the Oilers around instantly.

Oh man, I want to believe, but I’ve learned a lot of lessons as a hockey fan from the Oilers…

What do you mean by “turning the Oilers around instantly”? Do you mean the way the organization is run (meaning on-ice results will follow, but after a lag), or do you really believe the on-ice product will be dramatically improved and they make the playoffs?

Even if Holland and Tippett are as good as we hope, I just don’t see them overcoming years of craptitude with long-reaching detrimental effects. I think they miss the playoffs easily this season, and likely miss the playoffs in 2021 as well (re-signing Nurse is going to leave the rest of the team unable to spend to improve). And that’s with an ideal Holland and Tippett doing their damndest.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
Gryba heading to flames camp on a PTO.

What is wrong with them? Hopefully lots more.

Scungilli Slushy

hunter1909: I seriously thought they were setting themselves up for another cup or two, until as we all know everyone left Dodge to chase the NY “dream”. Once Mess left I literally quit following NHL hockey for 10 years. recently I’ve been doing just that with English football. Amazing just how silly it looks when you can look back on a decade of soccer and realise you don’t even give a single fuck anymore.

Just what do they say following sports is like? Soap operas for men?

hunter1909: I seriously thought they were setting themselves up for another cup or two, until as we all know everyone left Dodge to chase the NY “dream”. Once Mess left I literally quit following NHL hockey for 10 years. recently I’ve been doing just that with English football. Amazing just how silly it looks when you can look back on a decade of soccer and realise you don’t even give a single fuck anymore.

Just what do they say following sports is like? Soap operas for men?

So true

I also stopped closely following after Messier was dealt. It was too ugly and we all knew it was a shister doing his dirty thing. The shister also gave us 5 Cups, but that didn’t mean I had to like it.

Like so many it was the stats thing that grabbed my interest again, and eventually lead me here.

And it revolutionized my understanding of the game and vapourized many myths I had been taught watching the glory years.

Thanks for your part LT.

OriginalPouzar

Gryba heading to flames camp on a PTO.

OriginalPouzar

JethroTull: I can’t believe the league is allowing this.Stone should be re-instated, or the original cap-hit should count.This is as clear a circumvention as it can be.Gives them more room for what’s his nuts.

Reading the comments on the Sportsnet thread is hilarious.There’s an obvious troll there called Chia-living, and someone who proposes Brodie and Frolik for Nylander.

This is perfectly legal and is not clear circumvention – they had a major injury to a top 6 d-man late in the off-season. Signing a cheap NHL caliber d-man after an injury…..

OriginalPouzar

JethroTull: The proof is in the pudding.

I don’t know if it’s laziness or ineptitude or just ignorance with the Oilers…………..

Your original post implied (almost expressed directly) that it was the former:’

– not willing

and

– being ineffective

are two different things.

I don’t believe they don’t invest adequate time and resources and prioritize development and I don’t agree that the lack of system play for the two prospects games should imply the same.

Scungilli Slushy

gimme shelter:
I saw the article on Chiapet signing on as a consultant with St.Louis on Sportsnet. I read some of the comments and they were over whelming stating that Chia was hired as an anti advisor. Meaning you would take his advice and do the exact opposite.
St.louis was the Stanley Cup champions this year. Chia failed in Boston and Edmonton as G.M. Why would St.Louis hire him? They won the Stanley Cup on their own. Why do they need a consultant of any calibre? Is Chia a friend of the owner? That one is a head shaker at best.Chia must have some unknown quality not seen in Boston and Edmonton.

His mysterious quality is ‘good hockey man team canada etc etc’.

He knows people and he knows the league.

It happens all over the world in many sports. I am not one that buys into the Silicon Valley baby geniuses disrupting the world, and I also don’t buy into stale.

Progressive and well experienced works the best IMO. Baby geniuses have their run and get their gold until wildly selfish and destructive business behaviour wakes up the sleeping who are supposed to keep an eye on things.

OriginalPouzar

CrazyPedestrian:
Apparently the fLames just re-signed Michael Stone ($700k) after buying him out last month. I honestly didn’t think that re-signing a player you just bought out was allowed… but here we are.

Still hoping Tkachuk holds out for $8M+

I soooo want to see them get cap-screwed…

The year hold period only applied to “compliance buyouts”.

hunter1909

HT Joe: lots for Holland to fix.

I’ll stake everything I know about pro sports on Holland+Tippett turning the Oilers around instantly.

Chiarelli was dodgy in my opinion when I watched the Bruins arguing over whether to trade Seguin. McLellan lost my respect as soon as blew that 3-1 lead vs the Ducks and the fact that both of these men had not been put together in any cooperative way screwed up everything. Eakins was completely out of his depth; ditto MacT which meant this was another failed attempt to win in the NHL.

No need to go any further back, since everything since the Sather era has simply been a hockey fans nightmare lol

OriginalPouzar

godot: It is not the fault of the defensemen for standing up at the blueline.If something bad happens, it is the fault of others.He D partner for leaving the centre open, or forwards, for not providing sufficient back pressure, and getting caught up ice.Defending the blue line is the right thing the vast majority of the time.Forwards should be skating harder backwards towards their own zone than forwards into the attacking zone.

Some people have been watching Russell play hockey badly too much.

Sorry but I simply cannot agree with this.

I watched the entirety of both games and he either mistimed his move or was simply beat by the flames and their structure.

Yes, of course, defence is a full team concept, all 5 need to be working together, however, Sammy was making individual mistakes, both mental and in effectiveness. Part of that aggressive defence of the blueline is knowing where your teammates are and identifying the situation.

Not even Adam Larsson is able to step up with half the frequency Sammy did in junior and was trying to do in these two games.

He’s 20 – he’ll adjust with development and experience.