Oh, I’ve been waiting. All the discussion and the rage, the arguments that start and end with ‘feelings’ and the gigantic wall called summer have all washed away.
You may have chosen your favourite, you may have reasons, you may know in your heart of hearts. Experience tells me that you should also light a candle, pray to the God who listens and be a good human all through September. I don’t know if those things matter, but I don’t know if they don’t either. Better be safe. Here is the camp invite list.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard and the Calder Trophy: The Oilers’ pursuit of the elusive rookie award
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: Kyle Brodziak defied the odds, and then the Oilers, to carve out a significant NHL career
- Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
- Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
- Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
GOALIES
1 Mikko Koskinen, 31. He has an uneasy hold on the No. 1 job and will have to perform well if he’s going to keep it. Delivered in October and November (.924) but was overworked and spent by season’s end. I think he’ll perform well if used properly. 100 percent chance of making the team.
2 Mike Smith, 37. Smith started slowly but had a .912 save percentage after the All-Star break. There’s all kinds of risk with this signing, I think there’s a chance we see an addition at the position during the season. 100%
3 Shane Starrett, 25. Posted a great season in Bakersfield (.916 save percentage) and is the first recall option entering camp. I’ll be watching to see how much work he gets in preseason.
4 Dylan Wells, 21. Played 12 AHL games (.909 save percentage) and spent the rest of the year in the ECHL. I don’t know if there’s an edge for backup in Bakersfield but Wells might have the inside track (as a guess).
5 Stuart Skinner, 20. 41 ECHL (.903) games made him the Wichita starter, with just six AHL games (.879) during the regular year. Skinner caught fire for Bakersfield in the playoffs, with a .918 save percentage in four games.
6 Olivier Rodrigue, 19. 48 games in the QMJHL (.902) and he’s a consistent goaltender who may have the best pedigree among the young group. He was outstanding in Calgary Game 2 rookie camp.
LEFT DEFENSE
1 Oscar Klefbom, 26. Four more years at just over $4 million, he’s a grand value contract. Per 82gp: 8-24-32. I’m interested to see how coach Dave Tippett proceeds. An offensive pairing led by Klefbom sounds promising, depending on partner. 100%
2 Darnell Nurse, 24. A growing number of people who are convinced Nurse should be dealt, I’d like to see the team get four better blue before doing so. Nurse is easily top-4D with this team, and posted a strong 2017-18 (often with Adam Larsson). 100%
3 Kris Russell, 32. The prevailing wisdom has him starting on the left hand side, but that could change. He’s an NHL veteran defender, that has value. 100%
4 Caleb Jones, 22. Jones is in a terrific spot and I have him on the opening night roster. His speed stands out in this group and he can move the puck. He’s young but could be around a long time. 60%
5 William Lagesson, 23. There’s a lot of buzz about Lagesson, he has shutdown utility and some puck moving ability. A range of skills is a good thing. 27%
6 Brandon Manning, 29. He’ll be a recall option and I imagine Manning will play a top-6D role in Bakersfield.
7 Dmitri Samorukov, 20. He was so strong in the second half, and sometimes a late surge represents real progress. His uneven play at the rookie camp resembles his short stay in main camp a year ago.
8 Keegan Lowe, 26. Solid veteran will spend the season mentoring the AHL kids again. Important role.
9 Jake Kulevich, 26. He’s been in pro hockey since 2017-18, first in the Winnipeg Jets system and now the Oilers. Big shutdown blue.
RIGHT DEFENSE
1 Adam Larsson, 26. Shutdown defender had a difficult season, and the Oilers badly need a rebound. I still think he and Klefbom will play a lot together. 100%
2 Matt Benning, 25. I’m not certain where he’ll play on the depth chart, and he may not be with the team after the deadline, but entering camp Benning appears to be an important piece. 100%
3 Joel Persson, 25. He has a clear shot at the NHL job, it helps the organization to send the kids down. It won’t be easy but he has terrific puck moving skills. May get a shot with Klefbom. 60%
4 Evan Bouchard, 19. He’s a pure talent with the puck and his speed has improved. Defense is the question and 40 games in Bakersfield is perhaps the best course of action. 46%
5 Ethan Bear, 22. He was effective when healthy, and has NHL experience. I’m confident in placing him here, but wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the team out of camp. 26%
6 Logan Day, 24. His impressive season has been overlooked with all of the other RH puck movers joining the chorus this fall. I don’t know where he’s heading but last season in Bakersfield was impressive.
7 Vincent Desharnais, 23. Big defender turned pro with an AHL contract, he looked pedestrian with the puck at rookie camp.
CENTER
1 Connor McDavid, 22. Per 82gp: 37-69-106, the injury issue will be front and center until he plays. I’m expected a gigantic year, with a spike in goals. 100%
2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 26. Per 82gp, he has scored 22-36-58, it’s vital he deliver at least those boxcars in 2019-20. His linemates are going to be an important decision for the coach. 100%
3 Riley Sheahan, 27. Per 82 gp for his career, he has scored 11-16-27, somewhere between Alex Chiasson and Zack Kassian (meaning he is not an efficient offensive player). Can win faceoffs and he’ll be on the PK. 100%
4 Gaetan Haas, 27. RH center who has speed and two-way skills, we don’t know if his skills are a match for the NHL game and we don’t know if he’ll need a period of adjustment. Edmonton is vulnerable here. 50%
5 Cooper Marody, 22. Skilled, smart and coming off an outstanding AHL debut. He can make it at center or on the wing. 30%
6 Colby Cave, 24. He has some utility but lacks any one strength to recommend him. He’s on the roster and he won 52 percent of his faceoffs. I don’t think he’s a long-term answer but he has a real shot at the roster. 20%
7 Kyle Brodziak, 35. He had a tough year, fell off demonstrably from previous level of performance. He was clearly not at full health, and is likely to be on injured reserve this season.
8 Brad Malone, 30. Malone serves as insurance at the position and has played 14 percent of his time with the Oilers in the NHL. If he’s recalled, something unplanned has happened.
9 Cameron Hebig, 22. It’s a big season for Hebig, who started last season as part of the Kid Line then faded away. He will need to find a role in Bakersfield. He played very well in the rookie games.
10 Ryan McLeod, 19. I don’t think he’ll see the NHL this season and am interested to see how much he brings offensively in the minors. Brilliant speed is going to get him chances.
11. Luke Esposito, 25. Proved to be quite useful in Bakersfield a year ago, he could play for the Condors or the ECHL (or both) this season.
12 Beau Starrett, 23. Giant forward showed well in rookie camp, there’s some useful skills with this forward.
LEFT WING
1 Leon Draisaitl, 23. The big man scored 50 goals last season, a feat that puts him on a higher level. Don’t expect another 50, but something close to career average (per 82gp: 29-44-73) is reasonable. A real gem. 100%
2 James Neal, 31. I think Ken Holland made out like a bandit with this trade, even if it doesn’t work out. I think 16 goals is a reasonable expectation. I also think Neal gets plenty of time on McDavid’s right wing. 100%
3 Markus Granlund, 26. He’ll be in the Rieder role, PK man who can score some, check some and maybe move from pivot as required. It’s a good choice, although you worry he lands more of a feature role than warranted. 100%
4 Jujhar Khaira, 25. Khaira is a rugged two-way forward who has shown signs of being a solid PK man. Per 82gp: 8-14-22, which isn’t a lot but his career high in goals (11) is stronger than the other options. 100%
5 Joakim Nygard, 26. He has speed, giving Nygard a major advantage over other hopefuls. His SHL scoring pace (he was among the league leaders) shouldn’t be overlooked. 70%
6 Tyler Benson, 21. I think he has a real chance to make the team. If Benson comes to camp, gets a chance with skill, and shows those passing skills, he can make the team. 55%
7 Tomas Jurco, 26. He has had some success (per 82gp: 9-11-20) in the NHL but it has been four years since he was a regular in the league 20%.
8 Joe Gambardella, 25. He scored 29 goals in the AHL last season and showed some ability in an NHL recall. A long shot, he could impress Tippett early and ride it to an NHL job. 15%
9 Nolan Vesey, 24. He hasn’t shown a lot.
RIGHT WING
1 Zack Kassian, 28. Per 82gp as an Oiler, he scored 10-14-24, which is excellent production for a role player but doesn’t warrant No. 1 line work. He does enter training camp as the top RW. 100%
2 Alex Chiasson, 28. Over the last three seasons, he output per 82gp is 16-15-31, and eight of his 22 goals a year ago came on the power play. He’s a bit of an odd match in this forward group (counting on 22 goals again is unwise). 100%
3 Josh Archibald, 26. One of my favourite offseason additions, Archibald can PK, score goals, skate and play a physical style. No real negatives. 100%
4 Sam Gagner, 30. One of the most interesting players on the roster, over the last three seasons he is delivering (per 82gp) 15-26-41. He could play on all four lines during the year. 100%
5 Josh Currie, 26. I think he could slide into a 13-14F job easily this training camp, so have ranked him here. No matter if Currie gets sent out, it’s better than even money that he plays in the NHL this coming season. 10%
6 Kailer Yamamoto, 20. I don’t think there’s much chance of Yamamoto making the roster out of camp, my suspicion is the organization wanted to see more a year ago. Wrist injury aside, he’ll have to show he can dominate the AHL before recall. 10%
7 Patrick Russell, 26. The more I look into his minor league season, the more impressive it looks. He’s a depth winger at the NHL level, but could see the NHL again this season. 2%
8 Kirill Maksimov, 20. I don’t see a path for him to make the opening night lineup, but a dominant first half in the AHL could see him recalled. He’s a perfect fit for a gigantic need.
9 Ostap Safin, 20. He’s lost a lot of time due to injury, but whenever he’s healthy the man is a load. Much like Benson a year ago, you’re just hoping for a complete season.
10 Raphael Lavoie, 18. Scoring forward likely headed to junior over the next few days. Promising goal scorer.
11 Anthony Peluso, 30. Big man with plenty of NHL experience, he’s ticketed for the AHL.
ESTIMATED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
Markus Granlund—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald
Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner
Joakim Nygard, Colby Cave
Oscar Klefbom—Matt Benning
Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
Kris Russell—Joel Persson
Caleb Jones
Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we talk training camp and the season to come. Frank Seravalli from TSN joins the party for another winter and Ben Kramer from CFL Weekly will tee up the weekend’s action. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Let’s get this party started!
I would give Persson and Jones 5 games apiece in the first 10 games and then make a decision from there.
I think a big part of this hiring though is adding talent for the power play. The org seems convinced they’ve added something material. Unlikely Persson sits till he proves he can’t play at EVs.
The trick with Nurse will be to get term. Tough because term is going to be the hardest part of the convo.
What’s up with all these rules all of a sudden?
When I saw Khaira, Pujo and Nuge together for the first time last year I thought they looked like a line. They ended up having some tough times together and the overalls weren’t the greatest but by eye it was a combo I think they should’ve been patient with.
Might be something in that Finnish water…
Also Konovalov was the only Oilers goalie to make Pronman’s top 28 goalie prospects at #22.
https://theathletic.com/1189399/2019/09/13/pronman-top-goalie-prospects-entering-the-2019-20-season/
He is not any good. Ruff, Hitchcock, and now Montgomery/Nelson/Bowness have all come to the same conclusion. He could not beat out Taylor Fedun. He couldn’t crack a defense that was gutted by injlury last year.
Provorov’s contract has 4 RFA years. Nurse’s will have 2 RFA years. If one imposes even a small discount for RFA years relative to UFA years, that would put Nurse over $7 million.
Morrisey’s contract is the more solid comparable.
Dallas D Man Honka has asked to be traded. Hasn’t been a happy camper for quite some time now.
Right shot D. Finnish. Hasn’t lived up to his potential.
Hmmm…
What Nurse’s comparables are and what I think Nurse is going to demand are two different thing.
I think he should come in between Morrissey and Proporov for term but I think he’s going to “demand” over $7M so won’t be signing in advance.
That’s fair enough (and I’m just, right this second, listening to yesterday’s player interviews – although I did know the substance of Klefbom’s).
I am hopeful that that Persson is a legit NHL 2RD although I think its a big stretch at this point – that would be ideal so, yes, hopefully it plays out that way, I just can’t pencil in a 25 year old with zero NHL and zero NHL experience who was a teacher’s aid 3 year’s ago, in to the top 4. Hopefully he earns that job. Until I see him play in North America, I’ve just got to put Benning there.
As I explained, that is NOT what I meant.
I’ve been very clear that money is indeed an issue next off-season which is why a clean disposition of Russell is essential.
My post was in response to a direct question about being able to re-sign Nurse now for term within the parameters of the CBA and, in that regard, there is no issue.
Feel free to continue to mis-interpret my comments while disregarding context.
Let’s be honest
Ken Holland is the only reason why Nurse’s next contract will be less than $7M.
Chiarelli or MacT would have started the negotiations north of 7
Per Rishaug:
Group A
Koskinen, S. Starrett, Wells
Bear, Benning, Desharnais, Klefbom, Lowe, Manning, Persson, K. Russell
Archibald, Benson, Currie, Draisaitl, Esposito, Gambardella, Kassian, Khaira, Malone, McDavid, McLeod, Peluso, Safin, Sheahan, Yamamoto
——————————-
Group B
Rodrigue, Skinner, Smith
Bouchard, Day, Jones, Kulevich, Lagesson, Larsson, Nurse, Samorukov
Cave, Chiasson, Gagner, Granlund, Haas, Hebig, Jurco, Lavoie, Maksimov, Marody, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Nygard, P. Russell, B. Starrett, Vesey
I think Jurco and Archibald are in the biggest danger of being replaced on the roster. First, by Holland acquisitions Nygard and Haas, and then by AHL Stars Benson and Marody. I think the rest are pretty safe and would consider it a competition between those 6 players for two spots on the roster and two in the press box.
Unless Benson steals a spot in the top 6, I think he should start in Bakersfield. If Marody doesn’t grab #3 or #4C, he too should start in Bakersfield. If Nygard and Haas aren’t in the starting lineup they should probably be sent down as well for their adjustment to N. American hockey.
So to conclude on my train of thought: Benson, Marody, Nygard, and Haas are competing for 2 spots in the lineup and Benson’s spot should be in the top 6 or not at all, and Jurco and Archibald should be on the roster but likely in the press box most nights.
I think the fact that Nugent-Hopkins mentioned he would like time with Khaira is a pretty big deal and something a coach very well might listen to and give him a real opportunity. If Khaira is prepared and grabs that spot, then Benson (and probably Marody) should start in Bakersfield and Nygard and Haas make the opening night roster.
Draisaitl – McDavid – Gagner
Khaira – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
Granlund – Sheahan – Chiasson
Nygard – Haas – Kassian
Jurco/Archibald
McDavid on the list to skate in the first group today.
He was not limited in camp type drills over the last while and there isn’t any reason to expect him not to be a full participant at camp.
Probably been mentioned already, but 6 of Edmonton’s top prospects made Pronman’s top-124 list:
https://theathletic.com/1186105/2019/09/12/pronman-top-123-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2019-20-season/
😀
Not a fan of ios either.
More effective in bottom 6?
What does that even mean?
Isn’t that what you said about Kassian? Seems to me you were adamant that he shouldn’t play higher than 4th line at this time last year. You sure seem to want to pigeonhole players into specific spots.
Bottom line is that Khaira should get a shot at 2LW. And if he’s the best option we got, then he should get the job.
Ha! We love ’em titels. My phone broke down a few months ago and my sister in law gave me her iPhone until I get around getting a new phone, first time with an iPhone and I absolutely hate the software on it. Among other things the autocorrect is dreadful and non-intuitive. But overall a bunch of programs are just not well thought out. I thought once I got used to it I’d come around, but nah, we’re not friends. My wife got so sick of me complaining about it that I’m forbidden to mention it.
Just there autocorrect wanted it to say ”My wife got some dick of me”. Maybe it just has a filthy processor…
Must be a Swedish thing!
So you read my post from the other day then? I’m not sure why you don’t think Bossy is better as his 1.50 career P/GP is probably untouchable by McDavid. He was one of the best goal-scorer’s ever.
More proof against the $7-8M some Oilers fans think Nurse will get.
Broberg’s head coach had some serious praise for Broberg in an article today saying he’s pretty much the most talented D he’s played or worked with in his career, the only guy he’s been around who was at a similar level is Fredrik Olausson who he played with early in Olausson’s career.
He thinks Broberg ends up one of sweden’s next great D. Also praising his willingness to get better and understanding what it takes to get to the highest level.
This is a coach who’s either played or coached at the pro level for 40 years, won 5 swedish league titels and played 214 games with the swedish NT so that’s some praise. Don’t think we have to worry too much about Philip getting ice time…
As a sidenote the continous praising of Broberg’s work ethic, attitude, willingness to improve, understanding of what it takes and so on from coaches, players, people around him reminds me of what you kept hearing about McDavid. A lot of prospects get positive remarks on these things, or they wouldn’t be elite talents, but this is at a different level. Like with Connor it’s almost as people are saying these things with their jaw on the ground. Not saying Broberg is near McDavid’s talent level on the ice but the ambition to always strive to be better seems similar.
I’m just catching up on some of the interviews from today. Kassian’s was cool, I gained some more respect. McDavid – hates everyone, so intense (in a good way, mostly). Just play, just win.
Anyway, the reason I’m replying to your post is Klefbom’s interview. He was asked who he figured he’d end up playing with given Nurse-Larsson is a thing. He literally only talked about Persson, a lot. He’s super excited to play with Persson and seems to expect it. Talked about how he might be able to adapt his game to help Persson be the player he can be. Also, Tippett was asked directly about whether Benning had the inside track at being Klefbom’s partner and he was like “we’ll see how it plays out”.
Zero verbal from the team in support of Benning. And LT was right penciling Persson in at 2RD. I’ve been expecting/hoping that Benning gets more of a shot too, but it sure doesn’t sound like he’s entering camp as a management thinks can take another step.
While draft position is useful for prediction of NHL success, it does not apply to Benson.
Based on talent and ability, he was in the top 10, perhaps top 5, in his draft year.
He dropped out of the first round because of serial injuries.
This made him a gamble. The Oilers rolled the dice.
Benson is either a star forward, or a bust. All depending on his health.
So far, so good. As for the rest, we shall see.
Based on his “real” pedigree, if he has a strong camp, he should get an NHL shot.
History shows he could be Marner-lite in his demands? Don’t even know where to start with that gem.
What history shows that an above average young D can use the career season of one the league’s best wingers as a measuring stick? One that reportedly turned down $11.5M?
Once again you have trouble following an argument through to it’s conclusion.
Accepting we want to sign Nurse, we still have to replace the players that left with better, more highly paid ones
So yes, I found your $25M comment glib, this I took you to mean money wasn’t going to be a problem.
Just because they agree with you doesn’t make you right.?
Is there anybody out there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
One of these days I’m going to cut you into little pieces.
Connor’s ppg over career is right up there after only the greats (and in different times). The only ‘better’ players on the list are Wayne, Mario, and Orr.
The system Tip and Play use is right up Russell’s saddle. It might make it plenty hard to steal that dusty cowboy’s job.
Being older it may be Willy who rides pine until injuries, unless they use Manning as the bench warmer.
My preference would be:
Nurse/Larsson
Klefbom/Benning
Lagesson/Persson
Russell
I love my some Willie to start with but, given Persson’s skill-set I think he’s a better fit than Jones.
I think there is a place for Russell in the lineup but he’s like Chiasson, where?
One of Jones or Lagesson need to be on the team and, as per Holland, not sitting.
I think we’ll see:
Nurse/Larson
Klefbom/Benning
Russell/Persson
Is this a rant or just satire? He was drafted by the Chiarelli regime; they took him out for dinner the night before draft. MacT and Lowe were not making those decisions in 2017.
Good point OP
Regarding zooming, though…
Morrisey zoomers:
Wheeler – 92
Scheifele – 86
Connor – 75
Ehlers – 73
Little – 62
Laine – 62
Trouba – 46
Morrisey – 41
Top 6 Forwards = 450 pts
Nurse Zoomers?
McDavid – 151
Draisaitl – 115
Nugent-Hopkins – 69
Nurse – 57
Kassian – 44
Lucic – 44
Maroon/Khaira tie – 33
Russell – 36
Top 6 Forwards = 456 pts
6 more points from top 6 forwards, 10 less points from main D partner. I don’t think there is any substantial difference in zooming.
I’m not frustrated in his development in the least … KY is right on schedule with the whi and only needs a couple more years after this one to pick up the additional f’s.
I alluded to this quote yesterday but want to discuss it again.
On the assumption that Tippett will not healthy scratch the veteran shot blocking hard-nosed d-man on opening night in favor of two rookies (given his stated emphasis on GA being cut), how does the Persson/Jones deployment go?
If Jones is #7, it sounds like he’ll head to the AHL instead.
Will the same apply to Persson? I think Persson is almost assured an NHL job unless he’s awful in the exhibition season.
—————–
“Tipp (Dave Tippett) and I are looking forward to watching pre-season and seeing how it all shapes out. We’re going to carry seven and he (Bouchard) is not fighting for a seven spot. He’s fighting for a (top) six spot. My philosophy always is when you’re putting the roster together, I’ll say to the head coach: ‘You’re playing tomorrow, tell me who’s in the lineup.’
“If a young player isn’t in the lineup, he’s going to the American League. If he is in the lineup, then we have a further conversation about where he fits. I’d rather make the call during the season to call the player up than to make the call during the season to send the player down. I think it’s easier for their mind and mentality to be working their way up than down. Young players have to take a job from a veteran.” For context, the whole interview is here.
What an odd conversation – you are the one frustrated with his development it seems, not me.
I’m just trying to have a conversation re: the “whif” but noone seems to be able to back it up.
How many lawyers does it take to populate an Oilers blog?
Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy. – AGREED
Nygard – GMs fav – Maybe not favourite but the GM has some skin in that game for sure.
Jurco – wildcard – This is throwing a former player a rope to see if he can run with it. It might pan out, it might not.
Gagner – may be the “best” option – Although Gagner is more likely to play RW.
Khaira – more effective in bottom 6 – I’m not so sure. Khaira’s underlying numbers with skill have been quite good. In Nugent-Hopkins’ recent interview he talks about how their games mesh well together and he hopes they get another chance to play together. That’s pretty encouraging verbal for Khaira. Maybe some coaches see the same potential.
Granlund – maybe there is something there. AGREE
Chiasson – Neal may push Chiasson out of 2RW, but that may just switch sides and put Chiassion at 2LW
If you go by proven NHLers who might gain the trust of the coach I wonder if it might shake out something like this:
Draisaitl – McDavid – Gagner
Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
Granlund – Sheahan – Kassian
Jurco – Khaira – Archibald
Nyygard/Haas
The rest have to prove themselves during preseason to move up the lineup including Nyygard and Haas in their first time on N.American ice, and AHL stars Benson and Marody, and long shots like Yamamoto, Maksimov, and Lavoie.
The lineup that would make everyone lose their shit:
Draisaitl – McDavid – Lavoie
Benson – Nugent-Hopkins – Maksimov
Granlund – Marody – Neal
Khaira – Gagner – Kassian
Haas/Nyygard/Chiasson/Archibald/Jurco/Sheahan
Although if this is the lineup it would mean that the youngsters lit it on fire all preseason. If that happened, maybe we’d all be ecstatic yet very, very apprehensive. I’m clearly trolling, but it’s fun to think about.
8 if you count MacTavish after Eakins before Nelson.
Definitely more than 7. I count 8 :
Renny Ralph Dallas nelson mact McClelland hitch Tippett
And as someone pointed out 5 gm’s. : Tambo MacT Chia gretz Holland.
Hey, don’t blame me for your frustration … I wasn’t the one who drafted him.
This is not right – 7 head coaches.
Holland has stated it was not in works for a long time – kinda happened in the week or so before the trigger was pulled.
Aside from Persson being able to handle 5 on 5 minutes, another key to the early season, to me, is finding someone to be a legit 2LW, on merit, bumping Chiasson out of the top 6 and Neal to the right side – Neal scoring goals as a top 6 winger is essential and, if he’s most comfortable on the right with a left shot center, well, lets try our ass off to get him there.
Who is that 2LW?
Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy.
Nygard – GMs fav
Jurco – wildcard
Gagner – may be the “best” option
Khaira – more effective in bottom 6
Granlund – maybe there is something there
I’m not a statistician, but I do like playing with numbers and spreadsheets. So maybe I don’t understand some of your methods and they went over my head. A few thoughts that came up while reading your post:
1. You didn’t use the same filter as WG. He used only players within 10% scoring rate of Benson and thus got only 28 players compared to your 242. Using all 242 will not give the same result, or as concise results. Woodguy used a very specific level of skill (within 10% of .97 pts/gp) at a very specific age (20 yrs). Your sample will have a few elite players who scored at a higher level (it’s a very small sample), and about 200 players who scored less, many who scored much less and made it to the NHL as pluggers, punchers, and bench warmers. Those players will drastically skew the results lower.
2. Another thing about using draft position for any quantitative analysis is that draft position is one team’s opinion about how good a player will be in the future and is often pushed up or down by as much as 20 spots based on team needs, depth at that position in the draft, how good that year’s draft was, team’s reaching on picks, players falling based on sometimes unfounded worries about character, idiotic scouting departments, players drafted for size (coke machine fetish of past Oilers scouting depts), players drafted lower because of where they were born. There are so many factors that push players up or down the rankings that they should never be used as a quantitative instrument for future predictions. I would add that they really shouldn’t even be used in their draft summer to predict the future for the reasons stated above. I’m sure there are writers like Jeremy Davis (NextGen Hockey) and Brad MacPherson (Blue Bullet Report, who also uses draft position to a certain extent) who predict future performance much better than any draft position could ever do.
3. Prior NHL experience does make sense though, but the problem with that is that it is usually in extremely small sample sizes and subject to early season easy competition, players going on heaters that didn’t last, players given lots of rope early on with skilled linemates, etc. Why did you include it? Did it make your numbers work better? If your trying to prove that you can determine success using draft position, why the need to pull in another set of numbers?
4. I’m not sure I understand what the numbers that your giving us say, except that they allow you to weed out some players that may not be as good in your samples and therefore come up with players that do better in the NHL and thus have a higher Percentage correlation of points in the NHL to points in the AHL. Better players keep more of their production when transferring from one league to the next. Lower players barely keep any. Their roles change as they move up to higher leagues. So anything that decreases your sample size to include better players (draft position, previous NHL experience) is going to have a higher correlation.
As mentioned, I’m fully open to being corrected on these observations.
He’s the “brand new” addition that I am interested in seeing the most. His ability to handle the NHL at 5 on 5, even 3rd pairing, is big for the organization.
I’m confident his PP acumen will translate, at least to some extent, and it would help the organization decision makers forget about Bouchard until at least 2020.
If he could be a legit 2RD at the NHL, allowing Benning to play 3RD (and/or moved in due course), that would be massive.
I agree some of them RFAs will be signing for less than expected but it will be at shorter term. If that story is true that the Jets offered sub $6 mil to Laine then that’s truly a slap in the face to the, player. They will not keep him for long. Some team with cap space should offer sheet him.
Here’s a fun little scenario. Flames only have about $5 mil in cap and still haven’t signed Tkachuk. Rumours are they have been trying to trade Brodie. So just when rosters are set for the season Ottawa comes in with an offer sheet at say $8.5 mil. Kind of leaves the Flames in a tight spot.
I actually really like the new alternate jerseys, despite them being a copy of the Sabres (gold replaced by orange).
That totally misinterprets the context of the question and my response.
The question was the ability to re-sign Nurse now and be in compliance with the CBA vis-a-vis next season’s cap.
The answer was yes given how much money comes off the books.
I have been very clear that when I speak of next year’s off-season, I consider $18M of cap space for 12 players – I include apx $7M for Nurse because his history shows he could be “Marner lite” in his “demands”.
In no way did I imply nor should you infer “throwing money at Nurse” or “being sloppy” from my post.
If Nurse was willing to sign the JM contract today, it should be done right away – he will likely be more so that is “not being sloppy” nor ‘throwing money” at him.
What does this do to Nurse’s next contract?
Elliotte Friedman
Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
9m9 minutes ago
Provorov 6×6.75 in PHI