There are times when you can anticipate a team’s trajectory. I have no such feel for this Oilers team. I suspect Craig MacTavish has told people around him that ‘the final victories in a winning streak aren’t deserved, and the final losses in a losing streak aren’t either’ but it isn’t clear to me we can guarantee a loss on Saturday morning. One thing for sure: If they keep playing 97 and 29 over 25 minutes a night, there’s going to be a downbeat.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
- Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
- Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
- Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 0-4-0, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2016: 3-1-0, goal differential +2
- Oilers in October 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2018: 2-2-0, goal differential -4
- Oilers in October 2019: 4-0-0, goal differential +5
I don’t think that McDavid goal would have counted one year ago. I don’t think you should worry about it, but adjusting your sights is probably a good plan. That new wrinkle in the rule will bite the Oilers in the ass someday soon. Anyway, who cares? The team tied it and then won it. Those two points are important.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (2-0-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-0-0, 8 points after 4 games
I picked this team to grab 15 points from the first 14 games. Edmonton could go 3-6-1 and get there. All numbers below are NST and five-on-five unless otherwise indicated.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 17:10 (that’s a lot) and went 11-15 Corsi, 6-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Leon Draisaitl had a goal in regulation and won the game with a nice shootout goal. He played 25 minutes again, I’m worried about his workload. Connor McDavid posted 1-1-2 (both points outside five-on-five) and came to the rescue with a massive goal with just over a minute left. Dave Tippett is playing the hell out of him. Zack Kassian had an assist on a goal so beautiful all five men on the ice should have gotten a point. (Wilde video here). The line has eight goals in four games, maybe they should be called the TWO G-A-G LINE.
LINE 2 Tomas Jurco-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-James Neal played 11:31, 8-9 Corsi, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.
Tomas Jurco had a takeaway and several impressive dashes, but no shots. Needs to score if he is going to stay on the line. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two assists, one on the Neal goal and the other on the late tying goal. I thought he played a strong game. James Neal is going to score 76 goals, they’re going in from the moon.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:16, going 6-8 Corsi, 3-5 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. I think this is going to be the hill the math people die on when it comes to Tippett. He loves this line too much.
Jujhar Khaira had a strong game to my eye, he got a shot on goal and another chance. He had the Oilers only HDSC at five-on-five. Encouraging. Riley Sheahan had 2 shots and a takeaway, played 30 seconds less on the PK than in his first game. Also struggled in the dot. Patrick Russell forechecked like a demon and drew a penalty.
LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Markus Granlund played 6:19 and were 2-1 Corsi, 2-1 shots and no goals or high events.
Joakim Nygard had a takeaway, he was physical and I think he should be playing more. Gaetan Haas did a good job forechecking, had a takeaway, was 50 percent on faceoffs. Markus Granlund had a shot and was a regular on the PK rotation.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear played 20:04 together, going 10-16 Corsi, 6-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 0-2 HDSC. Nurse played 11:01 with McDavid, 9:19 against Hall.
Darnell Nurse had a lovely assist on Edmonton’s first goal. He skated miles and just over 24 minutes total time. Ethan Bear’s deft pass to McDavid for the jailbreak on the first goal was poetry. The young defenceman had two takeaways and five shot attempts, as well as 1:38 on the PK.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 14:10 together, going 13-10 Corsi, 5-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.
Oscar Klefbom had an assist on the tying goal, seven shot attempts at goal, and several events where he covered for his young partner. Joel Persson had three shots and took some time to move the puck consistently in this game. That Devils speed is a tough test.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell-Matt Benning played 12:31 together, going 4-10 Corsi, 1-6 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. That’s a weird line.
Kris Russell had a giveaway and a takeaway, blocked a couple of shots and led the team (along with Klefbom) with 2:22 shorthanded. Matt Benning had a takeaway and a blocked shot, he played just 13:26 (Bear played 10 more minutes.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 28 of 31, .903. He also stopped six of seven HDSC’s. He has been the better goalie through four games.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we kickstart the long weekend on TSN1260. We’ll talk turkey with Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports, who will give his opinion on the Oilers start and tell us the real Dave Hodge story. Matt Iwanyk will pop by at 11 and we’ll talk Oilers, Eskimos, NFL and his beloved Yankees, who got no breaks at all last night in Houston.
“deserves” has got nuthin’ to do with it …
They have zero cap space.
You don’t think he did Physio all summer…and all season if he has a bad back?
I’d bet my house he did/does.
We thought skating would hold Ethan Bear back too, but he put a tremendous amount of work into it over the summer and it’s no longer a deficit. Marody still has time to rectify the skating issue.
I live in BC and can buy a plastic Mickey of it for $11 and change at a government run liquor store. It’s bizarre. If I was Suntory or Diageo I would buy all of it in bulk and sell it back to Canada in heavy bottles at 4 times the price.
This is absolute truth. probably the most underrated Rye in Canada.When I head stateside (fairly often) and sit at a good cocktail bar (always) chatting with the bartender, they ask me to bring them a couple bottles back next time i come. Which of course I would NEVER do, as it violates international law……
But yeah, it’s delicious. Best value in Canada.
Old Scottish saying about whisky: “One’s too many and a hundred’s not enough”.
*So good* of course.
Strong work by all. Do good it’s hard to stop at one. Bottle.
My father-in-law isn’t allowed to drink Alberta Premium any more. His three daughters and wife forbid it. It fires up the blood a little too much! lol
Writer’s tears is shifty…bottle is only 700ml! Glenlevit is hard to beat, and they have a vintage at every pricepoint…21 years, 18 years, 15 years, 12 years, founders reserve etc
I wonder if Treliving would be interested in trading a third round pick for Russell?
Pretty sure they are going to have an extra one in the up coming draft
Someone has to get flushed even without an AHL callup…Archibald over Granlund is my guess
Damn high faluten rich folk & thier Captain Morgan!
I once spent 50 quid on an expensive bottle of rum,
It was a 60lb. er
Writers tears beget Writers threats
Fight me.
Harpers Hair,
A very troll-like post. You seem more of a flames fan. This site is not for you. Commenting on Sportsnet articles is more your speed. There’s an obvious troll there you’d like; kindred spirits one could say. Some call him spillies or spilly, not sure why.
That’s not ideal.
Ideal is trading Russell clean for $4M of cap space.
That may not be reasonable but I think the asset is tradeable without taking back a bad contract with $500K-$1M retained.
Halfwise,
This is the goddamn truth and it’d be common knowledge if the world made sense
Harpers hair
Don’t worry when the Neal regression comes Chiasson’s heater will start
He’s shooting zero % he’s bound to improve isn’t he ?
?
Yes he did.
Ryan,
Well described as it should be implemented. I think most coaches employ a bit of this strategy, but as you mention, the players have their own personal goals regardless of what is best for the team in the long haul. Reality is you’d never get your whole team to buy into this. Agents would have a field day on twitter
Oooh. Ooh ooh
Do JT Miller next
Woodguy v2.0,
Thanks for that. If a bad back was ailing him last year, maybe he can work in some more physio while waiting for his foot/ankle to heal. Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise, so when he returns to the ice he’ll be closer to his 2015-2017 performance.
Ryan,
A very well thought out response to a half-baked question, thanks for this. Maybe the other refinement would be resting one in any given game rather than both, if defending a lead. We saw how safe 5-1 felt against the Isles, not sure we could spare both of them.
As mentioned, it may not be Cooper, though I do believe he will end up being an upgrade on several players.
It may be Yamamoto, Benson, Currie, Gambia, but in my opinion there is a swap or two coming by game 20. Granlund isn’t going to make it.
Great question.
While I agree that allocation of ice time for 97 and 29 is analogous to spending currency, I don’t think I like either of your choices. I’ll start with the latter first.
There’s only about a 3 percent difference in reg wins for all road games vs back-to-back road games. (44 vs 41).
The Oilers win rate if they sit 97 and 29, for a road game in a bac-to-back, would be what? 10%. Depending on energy levels, you could make an argument do this once or twice maybe, but not for all the b2b games.
As for the flat ice time, I think it would make most sense to titrate their ice time by score, opponent, game state etc.
You’d want a sophisticated algorithm and a means to accurately calculate probability of a win or tie (updated continuously during game). If during a game, the probability of obtaining points were too low, you’d pull them.
Home vs road, opponent, score, time of game, etc.
I.e, if the Oilers are down 4 in the first period at any time, you’d pull the chute and not play them.
– down 4 at any time in first period, pull.
– down 3 after the first, pull
– down 2 after the second period (vs good opponents), pull
– up four goals, drastically reduce shifts
– up three goals after the second, drastically reduce ice
– home game, soft opponent, push ice time as necessary
– push ice time on home games.
– push ice time vs soft opponents until solid lead.
– road game, soft opponent, opponent on b2b, push ice time as necessary
– road game, b2b, tough opponents that’s rested, pull once down 2g
Etc.
The players themselves would hate this as it would wreck their scoring stats.
Yes.
One hundred percent agreed. If he can have a Bear-like summer and improve his skating I’d welcome with open arms. But he needs that step.
I’d recommend old pulteney 12 or oban little bay
If you’re looking for a reasonably priced scotch that’s light, smooth, non-peaty, I’d recommend Dalwhinnie.
So I’m sure the NHL is a long way from considering NBA-style load management, but curious to know what people think.
Would the Oilers have a better regular season if they:
a. Scale back 97 and 29 to a more reasonable TOI per game, and play them 82 games; or
b. Rest them six or eight games a year as the schedule dictates (say one of two BTB games, or on “scheduled loss” type games like a road game in Tampa, or skipping one-game road trips to save them from travelling)
Yes, but this ignores context. Is the goal today something that’s going to generate a bid on Pujo’s services? Does it indicate anything about NHL level of ability? It’s nice that he scored but it’s pretty obvious the answer to both those questions is “no”. That goal is not going to move the dial.
I would be more encouraged if we heard confirmation whispers of CAR scouts at the game today, or the same about Oiler scouts at the Gauthier debut.
Not saying that’s the deal I’d necessarily want but activity of any sort would be good news. Beyond the usual verbal from KH, that is.
Eric Duhatschek makes the point that the Lucic – Neal trade is a win-win: https://theathletic.com/1287498/2019/10/11/duhatschek-notebook-neal-for-lucic-trade-is-a-rare-win-win-and-why-the-jets-should-be-patient-with-byfuglien/
Honestly if Flames fans and their media want to put a positive spin on a $5.25M 4th liner who needs to be expansion draft protected, well then we’ll let them. Fill yer boots, Cowboys.
As for myself I’ll just enjoy watching the reality of Mr Holland’s Masterpiece play itself out on the ice.
Scotch.
But not much peat cause you are not a fan.
All,
Off here for the night.
Good convo all.
treevojo,
You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?
Please refresh my memory…
I think that Laggeson has the combination of skating, toughness and passing that makes him this generation’s “Larsson”
Ymmv.
Would it be sacrilegious for anyone to suggest a spiced rum?
Just opened a bottle of $50 rum. My first non- cheapo rum.
Dad and Grandpa always drank navy white or lambs so I was turned off of rum’s paint thinner like qualities in the cheap varieties for 40 years…
Thanks.
Really have enjoyed writers tears.
Hoped you had another hidden gem in that range.
You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?
Ya wasn’t sure if the fancies were still loving hampus.
Never hear his name anymore.
Sekera is playing with Heiskenen.
Who a player plays with is the single most important variable in his results.
Thanks!!
I’ll give a bottle a go.
I love these recs.
Larsson was amazing in the year before Pete bought him 15/16.
He was above average in 16/17
He had a tough and below average year in 17/18 That’s the year his Dad died.
He was terrible in 18/19.
He told Gregor he had a bad back all year and I can easily imagine that losing his Dad still weighed heavily on him.
I was looking forward to him having a good year this year.
His skating in pre-season looked miles better than last year.
I not sure I’d bet on him long term with that back.
I liked him a lot in the past.
That’s every pairing Russell is on.
Russell has a signing bonus on the last year of his contract. You can’t buy it out.
The buyout cap hit on the last year of his contract is $3m. You’d probably do better just by sending him to the AHL.
My point was that ideally you would find another player, preferably even worse, with a similar contract minus the signing bonus, to facilitate the trade.
Then you would buyout that player.
He is still a top 10 Dman imo.
The team sucks (although might be better this year….) so that flavours the take on the players.
They also play in the Pacific Time Zone and most hockey writers do not watch them.
In terms of $/awesomeness I don’t think Writers’ Tears can be beat.
It used to $30/bottle!!!
I like Red Breast 12 a lot, but its ~100/bottle.
Knappogue Castle 12 is good and last I saw it was ~90
I’ve never liked a Bushmill other than the 21, but others in that price are better.
Middleton’s is waaaaaay overpriced.
Tullamore Dew 12 is good and reasonably priced in spots, avoid anything other than their 12.
When the regression comes…and it will…things won’t look very rosy.
Plus, to be fair, $10M cash from Katz’ sofa cushions.
No one expects him to score 140 goals this season
But this team really needed someone with hands in close to finish some of those very easy scoring chances and to get him we traded an Ahler with a contract you can’t buy out