And we’re back. The formula goes like this: McDavid runs over competition, goalie stops as many of the 50 shots headed his way as he can, and scene. It is not a strong option. We are seeing this Edmonton Oilers team slide back into some bad habits. Pucks are going in the opposition net, but the ice is tilted in the wrong direction. Edmonton’s coach is not having it.
Dave Tippett’s avail last night was stern and somber. Tippett: “You can’t play like that and expect to be a playoff team.” Music!
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
- New Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
- New Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
- Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
- Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
- Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
- Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-4-0, goal differential -2
- Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -7
- Oilers in October 2019: 6-1-0, goal differential +9
It’s uncanny how closely the 2016 experience matches this one. Encouraging, because that team made the playoffs. The team may have to make several trips to the goalie factory this season, though. There were moments last night where I was reminded of that period over Christmas a couple of years ago where the Oilers got outworked and outsmarted. Can’t have that.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-1-0, 12 points after 7 games
Edmonton could go 1-5-1 in the next seven games and match my prediction for October. These banked points are absolute gold, and it’s fun when the team wins in regulation. Those blasted Bettmans are the life’s blood of this crazy league. All Numbers below via NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 14:24, went 8-22 Corsi, 6-13 shots, 3-0 goals and 1-8 HDSC. That is the craziest damn stats line I’ve ever seen. All business up front, while a murder is taking place at the back.
Leon Draisaitl scored a goal at five-on-five, plus 1-1-2 on the power play. He played just 19:51, that should be considered a major victory. He spent 2:22 on the PK, need to shave that down. Connor McDavid’s goal was incredible, his five points just the third time he’s managed that total. What a talent. Zack Kassian tackled a man at the 10, picked up an assist and played well.
LINE 2 Alex Chiasson-Nuge-James Neal played 10:45, went 9-6 Corsi, 5-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC.
Alex Chiasson kept the puck moving in a good direction but didn’t post any crooked numbers. Nuge went 1-1-2 (he actually scored a second goal but didn’t get credit) and won five of nine faceoffs. James Neal picked up an assist (nice pass on the Bear goal) and played a fairly complete game.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:45 together, going 6-9 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira was on the PK rotation, that might be the only thing keeping him in the lineup. He was part of a couple of reasonable looks but honestly not much there there right now. Riley Sheahan had 3 TK, five minutes on the PK and won 12 of 22 on the dot. Patrick Russell had the line’s only HDSC, took a penalty and looked comfortable on the line.
LINE 4 Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Josh Archibald played 7:19, going 5-5 Corsi, 2-3 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Tomas Jurco had one shot, I liked him with the puck on his stick and in battles. Like Khaira, he needs to move the needle more offensively. Markus Granlund took two penalties and was pedestrian the rest of the time. Josh Archibald will score one day, he keeps getting chances.
OILERS 2019-20
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 19:01, going 11-21 Corsi, 7-13 shots, 1-1 goals, 1-8 HDSC. Played 8:19 against Giroux-Couturier-Konecny, that line is a handful. Played 6:24 with Nuge, 5:28 with McDavid.
Darnell Nurse skated miles, was very physical, had one giveaway and took an unnecessary penalty. Ethan Bear scored a nice goal, some great passes and two giveaways. This pairing went 2-11 against the Couturier bunch, who are positively frightening. Duo was 9-10 against the other Flyers in Corsi, acceptable numbers considering the fact a rookie is onboard. Four offensive and seven defensive zone starts on faceoffs.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 15:10, going 12-21 Corsi, 5-12 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-5 HDSC. Faceoff zone starts included four offensive and six defensive.
Oscar Klefbom had an assist, two shots and three giveaways (Edmonton had 25 on the night). Russell had a giveaway, the least likely assist in NHL history, two takeaways and eight blocked shots.
PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning are a mind numbing combination of words for the same pairing. The only thing worse would be a Batt Manning-Mann Benning duo. Played 10:19 together, 7-5 Corsi, 4-4 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.
Brandon Manning scored a nice goal, I was happy for him. Not his fault he got traded here, one hopes he can continue his career in Edmonton or elsewhere. Matt Benning had a couple of giveaways and a takeaway, he played well in a support role.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was outstanding, possibly his best game for the Oilers. Stopped 49 of 52, .942 and at five on five it was 32 of 33, .970. Koskinen won the game. Tippett said he should have been the first, second and third star.
INJURIES
Joel Persson and Joakim Nygard are both out with injury, concussion and ribs, respectively. Seven to 10 days for the blue, two to four weeks for the forward.
The best righty defender in Bakersfield is Evan Bouchard. Edmonton may think it too soon to bring him up and that might mean William Lagesson or Caleb Jones.
Nygard is a speed merchant who can forecheck. The fastest forward on the farm is Ryan McLeod, the team has several men who can forecheck.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning on the Lowdown, starts at 10, TSN1260. Frank Seravalli from TSN will pop in to talk Oilers, Zack Kassian and early season surprises. We’re planning to head out to Bakersfield for a chat about the Condors and possible recalls, and will have plenty of NFL chat, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s a fun show! Seriously.
Man, Kris Russell will never make a big portion of his salary from passing the puck. lol
For less than one full season until UFA?
Taylor Hall would be acquired as a rental.
I don’t want to over-rate Samorukov but I’m weary of a big name rental at this point.
Not to mention, that trade does not work – Hall replaces a player in the lineup so the net cap increase is $5M – can’t even fit that in with full Larsson LTIR relief let alone with that $4M of extra space goes away in a month.
Relative numbers don’t always look good for players on bad teams. The Oilers have had tons of examples of that.
I didn’t say that GF% is the definition of play driving, and you know that GF% is dependent on team as much as the individual. Fair enough bad teams can inflate the relative numbers but it’s damned hard to have a positive GF% on a shitty team.
And I did look up the numbers.
IMO GF%rel captures more than raw GF%. So for the last 3 years GF%rel:
Nylander: 5.04
Granlund: 4.37
Hall: 12.75 (4th in the NHL)
Staal: 2.21
Bailey: -1.01
Dzingel: 3.14
Connolly: 3.18
All fine players, but it’s almost like you’re arguing that these guys are as good as Hall.
Of course rels look good for a good player on a bad team, they always do. Put him on Tampa and the rels would shrink drastically.
Are you sure that those other players don’t drive play like Hall? If GF% is the definition of play driving, why not look it up to see? Looking at the past 3 years due to NST’s limitations – Hall’s best 3 year run I might add – the numbers look like this:
Nylander: 56.52
Granlund: 55.98
Hall: 55.51
Staal: 54.64
Bailey: 50.81
Dzingel: 48.05
We should have signed Brett Connolly, his 58.57 GF% from the 3rd line is elite.
There are lots of mainstream positions in the comments sections and she will link to mainstream articles.
Excellent counter point. Thank You
Thats IT
Wow. That is an eye opener for me. Thank You.
thanks! fair.
The missed games and the next contract are real issues, no question.
But Hall does drive play. You know this.
His GF% by season:
2010-11 45.7
2011-12 52.6
2012-13 53.9
2013-14 47.8
2014-15 51.4
2015-16 52.3
2016-17 52.1
2017-18 58.6
2018-19 53.9
2019-20 42.9
Rather impressive since he’s played on middling to bad teams. Considering that, GF%rel is likely a better measure.
His GF%rel by season:
2010-11 1.70
2011-12 9.71
2012-13 10.55
2013-14 8.76
2014-15 15.13
2015-16 12.87
2016-17 10.72
2017-18 13.71
2018-19 13.19
2019-20 -2.60
None of the other players you mentioned have driven goal scoring by their teams like that. My goodness.
It does lead to goals, that’s the thing. He pushes the percentage of goals scored while he’s on the ice in favour of his team.
HAAAA haaaa! 🙂
Yes. Yes, you did. Or at least I’m pretty sure it was implied… /s
Point being, though, what good is “play driving” if it doesn’t lead to goals and wins? Hall is worth, on average, 61 points- that’s about what guys like Eric Staal, Mikael Granljnd and Josh Bailey average. Would you pay those guys north of $9M? And anyways, most of Hall’s current value is tied up in his PP acumen, at 5v5 over the past 3 years his 97 total points rank him 76th in the league, tied with such offensive stalwarts as Ryan Dzingel and William Nylander. That’s NOT elite play driving. And that’s only partially due to injuries: Hall has averaged just 2.13 P/60, which is outside the top 40 players in the league. Don’t count on it improving as he hits his 30’s either.
Thx Elliotte.
Did I say that he magically impacts games he doesn’t play in?
If you get Hall for double that you do it. It also secures Nuge at a discount I would think.
New for The Athletic: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done:
https://theathletic.com/1302559/2019/10/18/lowetide-assessing-oilers-forwards-early-season-progress/
Lagesson was called up yesterday afternoon.
Its been shown that elite players stay in their prime years longer than other players.
I have no doubt that a “healthy” Hall will drive play until he hits 34, 35.
The questions Id have is can he stay healthy and how much will his contract cost?
The first one is unknown and the second one, we will know in less than 10 months.
+1000.
That next contract though…
If you can get Hall for JP + Samorukov + a 2nd you make that trade. Yesterday.
He has zero value (negative value, actually) while on IR for 20 games per season.
Got it.
Thanks.
There’s no cherry picking, this is completely unbiased (aside from deciding how to sort the players initially).
If you want to go through every team, determine who you think was top 6/bottom 6, then figure out how many points each group scored. Well have at er.
I sorted all NHL forwards last year by goals and by points. Then using bins of 31 for F1, F2 etc. I took the median goal and point number for each slot (=> the list above).
Then I sorted the Oilers the same way to assign goals and assists to top 6/bottom 6. I think this is the most impartial way of doing this. It’s not perfect, but any other way of doing this will be equally flawed.
ArmchairGM,
His value is in driving play, not point totals
Lots of talk about Taylor Hall and while I really like the player, looking at his numbers gave me a little shock. He has averaged 24 goals and just 61 points per season over his career. While in Jersey, his 25-, 26- and 27-year-old seasons (PEAK), his averages have been similarly pedestrian: 23 goals and 63 points per season. This, of course is largely due to injuries, which limited him to just 63 games per season in Jersey. But, that’s pretty close to his career average, so we can’t really expect anything better going forward.
Is that really worth a Kings ransom in a trade? I mean, we’re probably talking about JP + Samorukov + a 2nd or so. And what about his next contract? He’ll be leaving his prime just about as soon as the contract starts, but even IF he was able to maintain his 61 points per season average, is that really worth $9-10M per season?
If you’re going to cherry pick which players are in the top-6 for goals and have a different set of players for assists you’re not going to have accurate numbers.
By unbiased you mean that it aligns with your views on climate change right?
It is really not possible for a single source to be ‘unbiased’. If you really want to get informed about climate change read lots, from a variety of places.
Yes, I know.
It would have been infinitely harder to figure out each teams top 6 and how they scored (which of course is fluid through the year anyway) than to bin forwards by goals and points. I figured it was most fair to do the same for the Oilers. That made Nygard the F6 in goals (so zero from F7 onward) and Jurco the F6 in points (2 points from F7 on).
I don’t have time to look at the D but I suspect you’re right. 4 goals and 20 points from the Oilers D isn’t so far off normal top 6 forward production.
That’s a sick nz move.
You can count me among those who do think he’ll have a nice NHL career.
Point made, however the bottom-6 has 3 points: 1 each from Jurco, Haas and Nygard (goal).
Also, do defensemen. I have a hunch that ours are outperforming the median.
Just caught a funny Yamamoto moment while early-morning tracking the last Condors game I forgot about:
https://streamable.com/l7nkr
[ this was during a penalty kill by the way, just remembered that the AHL doesn’t put anything on the screen that tells you it’s not 5v5 😐 ]
I mentioned this on twitter when I posted it there, but his quickness is so profoundly dominant at this level that I think the main use of his extended time dominating down there will be to have his brain properly work out how to best abuse the smaller amount of windows he’ll get to make plays in the NHL because they’re pretty close in type; just more few and far between
GA/60
15-16 3.30
16-17 2.14
17-18 2.72
18-19 3.30
19-20 2.54
xGA/60 (from NST)
15-16 2.38
16-17 2.21
17-18 2.64
18-19 2.75
19-20 2.84
Conclusion: McDavid should play all 6 positions concurrently, or he sucks.
I’d say ‘truly informed’ would be also reading those who disagree with Curry.
Their shot impacts in their draft year in the Liiga
Bruce McCurdy,
Pretty sure Draisaitl got the DVD boxed set from Coach Hitch last Christmas. It was narrated by Scotty Bowman though…
What’s the saying? There’s winning and then there’s misery.
McDavid did have a rough time of it defensively last year, especially in the second half of the season. Not fair to measure gross totals & especially ENGA, but on a per-60 basis at 5v5 there were 529 skaters who logged at least 300 minutes over their teams’ final 41 games, & McDavid ranked 529th at 4.24 GA/60.
I posted the data & wrote about it here in a larger post about the Big Three that detailed some remarkable facts about the Oilers’ over-reliance on the trio. One takeaway was that they (McD & Drai in particular) may have gotten worn down by excessive ice time, which has only gotten more extreme early in 2019-20.
Bottom line, his 200-foot game remains a work in progress. At some point Ken Holland may feel compelled to relate The Legend of Stevie Y.
Things getting testy in Minnesota already.
https://www.tsn.ca/minnesota-wild-s-jason-zucker-calls-out-bruce-boudreau-rest-of-team-after-loss-1.1382994
RAPM uses standard deviations. 2.3 below replacement in 17-18, 16-17 was a little less than 1 above, rookie year was about .7 below
My post was positive, & no sarcasm was intended. Not ’til the final sentence, at least.
Well then you’re a lucky man,
Pro tip:
Find a 250ml glass, keep the other half in the fridge.
If you ever need anything else, I consider myself somewhat of a beer drinking expert.
When I have more time I’ll post one of my theories that I invented.
I call it: Open bottle, Closed bottle
So apparently the oilers aren’t the only team to get severely outplayed in and out-shot and win. As I’m typing this, shots are 47-21 for LA, but score is 3-0 Buf. With 4 min to go.
Edit: shots end up 47-24 LA, Buf wins 3-0.
On my phone now
Just wondering what the XGA was for years prior to last year.
Bruce McCurdy,
I know it is a sign of the time, but Bruce, I don’t think a post with sarcasm can truly be counted as “positive”.
Looking at RAPM, McDavids xGA doesn’t look very good either though, so I find it hard to find fault in goalie save % as the main factor.
As much as I love McDavid, his defensive #’s there aren’t strong post 16/17
GMB3,
frjohnk,
Agreed, and so far so good.
This IMO is the crux of the issue. Good players and bad teams put up relatively worse numbers than good players on good teams. Sure, McDavid can improve his defensive game, but I don’t think the numbers tell the whole story. I’ve mentioned this a couple times; it will be interesting to see Trouba’s possession numbers going from the Jets to the Rangers.
A combination of
-Koskinen being overworked, having some issues he needed to work on,
-D not being good enough because of injuries and lack of depth
I also think McDavid and Drai were overworked and this led to goals being scored against them that maybe wouldnt have happened if they had played less minutes.