2019-20 Game Nine: Oilers at Jets

by Lowetide

The Oilers and Winnipeg Jets played four times in 1979-80, the first season for both teams in the world’s finest hockey league. Winnipeg won the first two, and the teams played to a draw in the final game. The third contest, played February 1, 1980, had everything: a hat-trick by Wayne Gretzky, a goalie start by a man named Jim Corsi, a big game by Stan Weir, an Oilers EV, SH and PK goal in the span of 2:33 in the first period, a fight involving Dave Semenko and Jimmy Mann, and a goal by a Jets forward (Willy Lindstrom) who would one day play for the Oilers. Madness. Beautiful madness.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide:  Oilers recall Sam Gagner to bolster offensive depth, option Gaetan Haas
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Lowetide: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
  • Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
  • Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-6-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 3-5-1, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 4-3-1, goal differential -4
  • Oilers in October 2019: 7-1-0, goal differential +10

Imagine a better start than 2016! It’s damned near impossible, and yet here we are. This year’s Jets are a truly strange brew. The team’s record is 4-5-0 and Winnipeg has lost three in a row. They’ll be desperate.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 7-1-0, 14 points after 8 games

A win tonight and the Oilers exceed my projections with five games to go. There’s regression coming, we all know it. That said, this has been a tremendous run to start the season.

OILERS 2019-20

I will be tracking “total players deployed” this season, as I believe Edmonton is on the verge of breaking the franchise record. If Ken Holland’s verbal matches his transactions, we’ll be seeing some of the kids after Christmas, and the deadline should also see a shuffle.

Currently, the number of Oilers who have dressed and played this season stands at 25, with William Lagesson and Sam Gagner possibly playing on this road trip. That would mean 27 players by Halloween night. A fun thing to follow.

CONDORS

Bakersfield was sloppy in the first period, recovered, and then gave up a late goal to lose last night against Stockton. Jay Woodcroft can’t be pleased, but then again his roster shuffled mightily in the 24 hours before the game (Lagesson, Gagner up, signing of Cody Corbett). There’s a mid-week game to come and I expect the roster players will be hungry for a win. Colby Cave destroyed Martin Pospisol in a fight that would have earned him instant recall 25 years ago.

BOUCHARD

Evan Bouchard turns 20 today, he’ll celebrate by visiting 50+ dwellings to preview his future. In all seriousness, he’s a mature looking 20, and he will eventually become a big part of the Edmonton defense. Don’t be fooled by mistakes in Bakersfield, the AHL is a different league and there’s better structure in the NHL. What Bouchard needs to work on are things like quick reaction, recognizing danger and handling dump ins effectively. He isn’t going to stop chaos, but recognizing danger before it happens (and driving that danger to the outside) are things he needs to improve.

SAM GAGNER

Samwise is back. I wrote about him at The Athletic last night (link above) and do believe he’ll have an impact if he gets playing time. Dave Tippett shortens his bench during important times in the game, so Gagner will have to make hay during the game states where a goal is required. Tippett’s attention to the game score is refreshing. If he needs a goal, his deployment is wildly different than his shutdown forces.

LAGESSON

As such, I’ll be interested to see, should Lagesson play, how much trust the coach has in him. Lagesson’s defensive play is excellent, I think (not alone in this but the belief isn’t universal either) that the young Swede has a chance to be an integral part of the Oilers future.

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CallighenMan

Harpers Hair: Always call them as I see them.
NHL defensemen are like quarterbacks,
Watch their feet.
Calm feet are a huge tell. (LT got this notion from me years ago.)
Bear is calm, composed and confident way beyond his years.

BS

pts2pndr

Wilde:
The following could be read as a question of Bear’s talents, but it’s meant as something positive.

Here’s a hypothetical with a few premises and then a question for the group. For this hypothetical, we’re going to assume the premises are true.

Premise 1A – Ethan Bear is currently on a bit of a hot streak in terms of individual impact, perhaps there’s been good goaltending behind him and the bounces have been with him or something. Whatever we’re watching is, it’s in the ‘up’ half of the ups and downs that young NHL defensemen experience.

Premise 1B – The bad outputs that Bear brings detract from his value only so much so that the net impact over a full season is such he’s able to play as the 2nd best player on a top-4 NHL pairing behind an average NHL forwards corps and not lose.

Premise 2A – Caleb Jones was a markedly better player than Ethan Bear was on the 2018-19 Condors.

Premise 2B – Something in Bear’s player-identity makes him translate his play from the AHL to the NHL better than Jones’ does.

Question – Is the factor in premise 2B so colossal yet perfectly contoured that Caleb Jones’ play in comparison translates so poorly that he is a worse NHL player right now than Brandon Manning?

More importantly, what is the *chance* that’s the case?

Is it so low that it’s not worth finding out earlier rather than later so that we can outmaneuver the coming logjam at D and be making important decisions (about who to keep, who to cash and who to pay what) with the largest sample sizes possible?

Objectively, unless someone is able to blow a hole in the actual validity of this sequence, either the question’s answer is yes – Manning is better – or one or more of the premises are false.

But if 1A is false we’re dancing in the streets.

Caleb Jones loses one on one battles at the NHL level, is a left shot D, and was -8 in 17 NHL games. The left shot right shot thing is a big deal. Jones will play top four left side with some team. Who would he replace on the oilers? Breaking into the NHL playing on your off side as a D is very difficult.

ArmchairGM

Wilde: But if 1A is false we’re dancing in the streets.

I think 1A is false. The way Bear positions his body in board battles is superb – he is winning those by design and not because of lucky bounces.

OriginalPouzar

vance:
Is it too soon to give Ethan Bear an offer of a long term contract in the range of 8 years at $3.5 million that he can sign Jan 1st?

That’d be an interesting bet.(Coming from the “that’s a bold move Cotton let’s see how it plays out” department)

Bear can sign his next contract any time.

The January 1 date is only for re-signing players on one year contracts.

To answer your question: in my opinion, yes – I think he’ll be easy to sign a 2 x $2M ($1.8M plus $2.2M, give or take) and I don’t think the risk of the third contarct being materially higher than $3.5M is huge.

Wilde

The following could be read as a question of Bear’s talents, but it’s meant as something positive.

Here’s a hypothetical with a few premises and then a question for the group. For this hypothetical, we’re going to assume the premises are true.

Premise 1A – Ethan Bear is currently on a bit of a hot streak in terms of individual impact, perhaps there’s been good goaltending behind him and the bounces have been with him or something. Whatever we’re watching is, it’s in the ‘up’ half of the ups and downs that young NHL defensemen experience.

Premise 1B – The bad outputs that Bear brings detract from his value only so much so that the net impact over a full season is such he’s able to play as the 2nd best player on a top-4 NHL pairing behind an average NHL forwards corps and not lose.

Premise 2A – Caleb Jones was a markedly better player than Ethan Bear was on the 2018-19 Condors.

Premise 2B – Something in Bear’s player-identity makes him translate his play from the AHL to the NHL better than Jones’ does.

Question – Is the factor in premise 2B so colossal yet perfectly contoured that Caleb Jones’ play in comparison translates so poorly that he is a worse NHL player right now than Brandon Manning?

More importantly, what is the *chance* that’s the case?

Is it so low that it’s not worth finding out earlier rather than later so that we can outmaneuver the coming logjam at D and be making important decisions (about who to keep, who to cash and who to pay what) with the largest sample sizes possible?

Objectively, unless someone is able to blow a hole in the actual validity of this sequence, either the question’s answer is yes – Manning is better – or one or more of the premises are false.

But if 1A is false we’re dancing in the streets.

Munny

The way to winning at this game is to get useful players keep useful players.

Upon the occasion of his next contract, Nurse can be locked up for seven years. A long term of usefulness, with the value of the contract likely improving as it ages.

He’s an apex-tough, fast-skating, minute-munching, head-up, point-producing Dman.

And he’s best buds with our two stars. The nucleus of the team’s leadership.

Useful? Let’s say a defenseman goes down to injury during a game. Whom on the team can the coach rely on to play 30-32 minutes?

Teams rarely trade the kind of players it would take to win a Nurse trade. And it usually happens when there’s some other kind of issue… cap, personal, etc.

Trades that improve the team are the ones where you’re the three and they’re the one.

TeeVee

v4ance: Wait… I thought it was called a “Russell”?We are talking about the same orifice clenching maneuver, right?

I’m talking about the actual orifice 😉

Munny

Zelepukin: I’m interested in how you would describe Oil alumni such as:
Andrew Ference
Tom Poti
Nikita Nikitin
Corey Potter
Ladislav Smid
Jaroslav Spacek
Steve Staios
Dick Tarnstrom

If you were to list every tire fire worse than Nurse from just this century, the list would stretch to the bottom of this page.

Munny

v4ance:
Is it too soon to give Ethan Bear an offer of a long term contract in the range of 8 years at $3.5 million that he can sign Jan 1st?

That’d be an interesting bet.(Coming from the “that’s a bold move Cotton let’s see how it plays out” department)

Obviously there’s no rush but yes that’s an interesting bet.

v4ance

TeeVee: The non-medical term is “Starfish”

Wait… I thought it was called a “Russell”? We are talking about the same orifice clenching maneuver, right?

TeeVee

Rebillled:
my circular muscle that normally maintains constriction of a natural body passage or orifice and which relaxes as required by normal physiological functioning…slightly fixed, fastened and closed firmly.

The non-medical term is “Starfish”

v4ance

Is it too soon to give Ethan Bear an offer of a long term contract in the range of 8 years at $3.5 million that he can sign Jan 1st?

That’d be an interesting bet. (Coming from the “that’s a bold move Cotton let’s see how it plays out” department)

Munny

Zelepukin: Nurse is a tire fire in his own end?

Hyperbole is always the most rational way to argue.

Munny

GMB3: It’s not quite as ludicrous as suggesting Curtis Lazar and Cooper Marody are applying for the same job in the NHL.
It’s a trade that would be easy to win. He’s a tire fire in his own end

Lazar has already played three years at the job Marody needs to, but has yet to, earn. Bottom 6 RHS Center.

You are really taking “cautionary tale” to heart lol.

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair: The Canucks dominated for two periods. The Rangers dominated for one.
Seems to me the game ended up as it should have based on the play.
Your mileage may vary although it seems it s been calibrated by a backyard mechanic.

Just to be clear. Edmonton outshoots Winnipeg 28-23 and we deserve to lose. Vancouver outshoots New York 43-40 and they deserve to win, despite spending much of the third period on their own end. Got it. Thanks.

Zelepukin

Nurse is a tire fire in his own end?

I’m interested in how you would describe Oil alumni such as:

Andrew Ference
Tom Poti
Nikita Nikitin
Corey Potter
Ladislav Smid
Jaroslav Spacek
Steve Staios
Dick Tarnstrom

GMB3

Munny: No GM on the planet would take the risk of losing it.Ludicrous.

It’s not quite as ludicrous as suggesting Curtis Lazar and Cooper Marody are applying for the same job in the NHL.

It’s a trade that would be easy to win. He’s a tire fire in his own end

tapper

Guaranteed the stripes were out for Connor and the Oil tonight after he “checked his stick” last game following the hooking non-call.

Munny

flyfish1168:
We need other players to step up and win the coach’s trust for more playing time. Connor and Leon looked gassed at the end. They can’t keep in up

They need a 3rd line.

Munny

GMB3: It’s actually not ludicrous at all. Just win the trade

No GM on the planet would take the risk of losing it. Ludicrous.

GMB3

Munny: They’re not trading Nurse.It’s not even within the realm of possibility, that’s what makes the proposal ludicrous.

Drai, McD and Nurse are best buds.This is the core.

Trading a stud out of your core is ludicrous.

Does Nurse make the odd stupid mistake?Yes.He’s no genius.

But go find me the perfect defenseman… and I’ll be willing to trade Nurse for him.

He’s not perfect, but he’s goddamn good.

Yeah trade Drai and McD’s best friend.

Ludicrous.

It’s actually not ludicrous at all. Just win the trade

flyfish1168

We need other players to step up and win the coach’s trust for more playing time. Connor and Leon looked gassed at the end. They can’t keep in up

Harpers Hair

GMB3:
Man…. Tippet is going to run McDavid and Drai into the ground. They were absolutely gassed. That’s a concern

That was a huge take away from this game.
Both were gassed in the third period.
Wait until they play back to backs against good teams.

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965:
The shots were 17-6 in the third for the Rangers and that’s generous. The Canucks were hemmed into their own zone for large parts of the third period. In fact, if I was the Rangers, I would have pulled the goalie with 5 minutes left. The Canucks were hemmed in their own end for a solid two minutes and they weren’t getting out.

Say what you want, but they were extremely fortunate to get out of that game with two points.

The Canucks dominated for two periods. The Rangers dominated for one.
Seems to me the game ended up as it should have based on the play.
Your mileage may vary although it seems it s been calibrated by a backyard mechanic.

GMB3

Man…. Tippet is going to run McDavid and Drai into the ground. They were absolutely gassed. That’s a concern

Munny

Jaxon: Just to add support to this, I believe he is now 9th among NHL D in 5v5 Points over the last 186 games.

They’re not trading Nurse. It’s not even within the realm of possibility, that’s what makes the proposal ludicrous.

Drai, McD and Nurse are best buds. This is the core.

Trading a stud out of your core is ludicrous.

Does Nurse make the odd stupid mistake? Yes. He’s no genius.

But go find me the perfect defenseman… and I’ll be willing to trade Nurse for him.

He’s not perfect, but he’s goddamn good.

Yeah trade Drai and McD’s best friend.

Ludicrous.

Have no idea how he’s getting included in trade proposals.

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.
The Canucks had 37 shots on goal in the first two periods and with a little luck could easily have been up 5-0.
The Rangers had a great third period.

Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.
The Canucks had 37 shots on goal in the first two periods and with a little luck could easily have been up 5-0.
The Rangers had a great third period.

The shots were 17-6 in the third for the Rangers and that’s generous. The Canucks were hemmed into their own zone for large parts of the third period. In fact, if I was the Rangers, I would have pulled the goalie with 5 minutes left. The Canucks were hemmed in their own end for a solid two minutes and they weren’t getting out.

Say what you want, but they were extremely fortunate to get out of that game with two points.

GMB3

digger50:
Jessie at an NHLe of 37

Sleppy at NHLe of 41

I’d have time for them bringing home Slepy

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar: He’s tied for 4th in the league for d-men for 5 on 5 points and 9th in P/60 – this is now 3 years where he’s top 15 at 5 on 5.

Just to add support to this, I believe he is now 9th among NHL D in 5v5 Points over the last 186 games.

digger50

Jessie at an NHLe of 37

Sleppy at NHLe of 41

jtblack

geowal:
They need a 3rd pair for overtime, even if it’s for a 20 second shift that creates some element of surprise when 97 and 29 hop back over.

+1. & gives McD and Drai a chance to re group. They were so gassed.

Harpers Hair

Munny: It’s more than that.Not just calm when they need to be calm.

He’s far more mobile than he was even last year.

His feet are now lovely.He gets even and square to attackers so quick.

He’s always been eyes up, and hasn’t lost that.And his soft hands too.

But those feet…

Yep..he was quietly the best Oiler on the ice.
Very impressive for a young D.

Munny

Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.
The Canucks had 37 shots on goal in the first two periods and with a little luck could easily have been up 5-0.
The Rangers had a great third period.

It’s more than that. Not just calm when they need to be calm.

He’s far more mobile than he was even last year.

His feet are now lovely. He gets even and square to attackers so quick.

He’s always been eyes up, and hasn’t lost that. And his soft hands too.

But those feet…

Andy Dufresne

Genjutsu: Those woodland creature’s don’t torture themselves.

lol

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965: So did the Canucks today. Utter domination by the Rangers in the third.

This is nonsense.
The Canucks had 37 shots on goal in the first two periods and with a little luck could easily have been up 5-0.
The Rangers had a great third period.

Harpers Hair

Dr. Taboggan: Did DSF just compliment an Edmonton Oiler?!?!?!?! It is a Christmas miracle!

Always call them as I see them.
NHL defensemen are like quarterbacks,
Watch their feet.
Calm feet are a huge tell. (LT got this notion from me years ago.)
Bear is calm, composed and confident way beyond his years.

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair:
Oilers deserved to lose.
Bear was an absolute beast.

So did the Canucks today. Utter domination by the Rangers in the third.

geowal

They need a 3rd pair for overtime, even if it’s for a 20 second shift that creates some element of surprise when 97 and 29 hop back over.

Reja

Munny:
Special teams and goaltending can get you in the playoffs.

But to convert this start to the season, right now the Oilers desperately need a third line.

More than 2LW.More than they need Hall, and cheaper.It’s all about matchups.They need a real 3rd line desperately.

Staal, as several here have suggested, is an excellent target.

Yes a third line Centre that has skill can PK and win faceoffs. JP plus make it happen Holland.

Munny

Special teams and goaltending can get you in the playoffs.

But to convert this start to the season, right now the Oilers desperately need a third line.

More than 2LW. More than they need Hall, and cheaper. It’s all about matchups. They need a real 3rd line desperately.

Staal, as several here have suggested, is an excellent target.

Munny

leadfarmer: the left

Perfect.

yeraslob

Looks like Calgary is interested in playing hockey (tie game) after that embarrassing display last night.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: We?

Yes
You are on an Oilers blog in case you haven’t noticed
You somehow missed the left to the Canucks blog and landed here

Genjutsu

leadfarmer: Where do you go on the nights we win?

Those woodland creature’s don’t torture themselves.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Harpers Hair:
Oilers deserved to lose.
Bear was an absolute beast.

Did DSF just compliment an Edmonton Oiler?!?!?!?! It is a Christmas miracle!

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: Where do you go on the nights we win?

We?

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair:
Oilers deserved to lose.
Bear was an absolute beast.

Where do you go on the nights we win?

Munny

Southern Oil,

And you’re correct about Laine, same thing. Have to change things up to keep D and tending honest.

duct tape and foil

Well it’s a work in progress but the 4th lines CF% was over 90 for two out of the 3 guys. So yeah I might try Sheahan with Jurco and Russell. We need a 3C and a 2LW pretty badly and it might be time to pull up Benson or make a trade.

Munny

Southern Oil,

Lol. well I was agreeing with him.