The postgame comments blamed the effort and the energy, but for me those things obscure the actual truth: The Edmonton Oilers don’t have enough good NHL players. Same as it ever was, although James Neal and Ethan Bear and Mike Smith have given the team added arsenal. If I told you that the only men who would be with the Oilers two years from now are 97, 29, 93, Neal, Kassian, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and one of the goalies, would you be shocked to your shoes? No. I don’t think you would be shocked at all. I listed 10 players, less than half the roster. So why are we blaming effort when we all know talent is the problem? Beats me.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
- Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, eight points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in October 2016: 8-3-1, 17 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in October 2017: 4-7-1, nine points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in October 2018: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in October 2019: 8-3-1, 17 points, goal differential +5
The Oilers played poorly in the first 12 minutes, then started to push. Goalie Mike Smith took a shot in the jewels and was never the same. I was surprised at the lack of criticism in deciding to let him continue, there was very little postgame (that I heard). I like Dave Tippett, think he’s done a solid plus job so far, but that’s a move one could reasonably question. Smith did not look right at any time after the shot that felled him.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)(Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 8-3-1, 17 points after 12 games
I think many fans will fret over this last week, but for me this is what might have been expected all along. The 7-1-0 start skewed the mind, while the recent 1-2-1 run may be more in keeping with this team’s talent level. If Edmonton collects three points for every four games now to the end of the season, the final point total will be 70. I expect this team has more talent in them than that, but it’s also true that early run was unsustainable. I picked this team to finish with 88 points. They’ll get there with a 70, 34-33-3 run. I think that’s a fair reflection of this team. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and via Natural Stat Trick.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 11:21, going 10-11 Corsi, 6-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-1 HDSC. The line was solid . Played 6:22 (1-1) against Aleksandr Barkov.
Leon Draisaitl had a goal, two shots, one HDSC and had an impact on the game. Connor McDavid had an assist, four shots and three HDSC, I thought he was terrific and a little unlucky. Zack Kassian had the good boots, had a HDSC (five for the line) and a takeaway. I don’t think this line was the problem.
LINE 2 Alex Chiasson-Nuge-James Neal played 7:28, going 7-6 Corsi, 1-3 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC. Played 2:27 against Barkov.
Alex Chiasson didn’t get much done, but Nuge drew two penalties and grabbed a PP assist. Solid in the dot as well. James Neal grabbed a PP goal, he now has 10 on the year. That draft pick is gone. This trio got more clean air than usual (Barkov was matched most often against 97 and Sheahan), it’s fair to expect more under those circumstances.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 6:55, going 8-6 Corsi, 4-4 shots, 0-2 goals and 0-1 HDSC. Played 3:40 against Aleksandr Barkov, interesting Tippett chose this line to match up against Barkov when he decided to go away from power v. power.
Jujhar Khaira had a good look but again couldn’t deliver, Riley Sheahan had two HDSC’s and for me is the best player in the bottom six. Patrick Russell wasn’t overly noticeable. At some point I think Ken Holland may have to change this line a little, maybe run Tomas Jurco and Kailer Yamamoto to see if possession (and offense) improves.
LINE 4 Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Sam Gagner played 6:24, going 4-7 Corsi, 1-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC. Granlund played 1:42 against Barkov.
Tomas Jurco had a HDSC and a takeaway, he’s easily one of the eight best wingers on the team. Markus Granlund had a takeaway but needs to do more. Sam Gagner was quiet on the evening but he does move the puck to good spaces.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 18:37 together, 18-13 Corsi, 8-10 shots, 1-4 goals and 6-1 HDSC. That’s an impressive stat set, one guesses you don’t see the goals and HDSC numbers for the same pair often. Played 7:42 (1-1) against the Barkov line. Six offensive and six defensive faceoff zone starts.
Darnell Nurse had a shot, two HDSC and was physical against Panthers throughout the game. I didn’t like how easily he gave up the blue line on the first goal, but suspect that’s a shot most goalies (and Smith when healthy and focused) grabs. Ethan Bear had an assist and a giveaway, which led to a goal. This is rookies. This pairing took the golden sombrero in plus minus.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 18:34, going 17-20 Corsi, 7-8 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC. Eight offensive and three defensive faceoff zone starts. Played 5:19 against Barkov line.
Oscar Klefbom had two shots and three takeaways, plus a couple of giveaways. He had calm feet and skated miles, for me this pairing, despite being the second duo, executed better than the top pair. Kris Russell had a couple of stellar defensive plays, and he drew a penalty. I don’t think this pairing at five-on-five was the problem.
PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning played 9:30, going 7-9 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-3 HDSC. One offensive and five defensive faceoff zone starts. Played 2:10 against Barkov.
Brandon Manning had one giveaway and a takeaway. Matt Benning had some looks and passed the puck well, but wasn’t noticeable.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 10 of 13, .769. He took a rocket off the sprocket and couldn’t breathe for a time. Been there. In the first several seconds, he would have awaited, no welcomed death. That would be followed by a cold sweat all over his body, then a light breeze would pass by, informing him he would live. He would have laughed nervously about have survived such a traumatic experience, and then assured all around him he was fine. I don’t think he should have been allowed to start the second period.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 13 of 15, .867 and that included several HDSC. Why they didn’t start him is a mystery to me. That was the play here.
OILERS 2019-20 [2018-19]
- Corsi for five-on-five: 48.05 [47.98]
- Fenwick five-on-five: 48.59 [47.75]
- Shots for five-on-five: 48.51 [47.59]
- Goal differential five-on-five: 46.67 [45.06]
- Shooting percentage five-on-five: 8.08 [7.66]
- Save percentage five-on-five: 91.30 [91.52]
- PDO five-on-five: 994 [992]
This year’s Oilers are a little better in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Goal Differential, Shooting Percentage. Last year’s Oil were slightly better in save percentage and PDO. You’re wondering about McDavid on and off at five-on-five?
- Connor McDavid ON five-on-five: 14-7 67.0 [77-75 50.7]
- Connor McDavid OFF five-on-five: 7-17 29.0 [69-103 40.1]
After a reasonable start the ON/OFF numbers have corrected and then galloped past last season. Let’s have a look at RNH on and off, I’m going to take the McDavid minutes out of each season.
- Nuge ON five-on-five: 6-4 60.0 [29-37 43.9]
- Nuge OFF five-on-five: 15-20 42.9 [117-141 45.3]
It’s early, and this is a small sample, but the second line does appear to be better than the truck stop baked beans poor Nuge had to play with a year ago. By the way, McDavid+Nuge on is 20-11 (64.5) and McDavid+Nuge off is 1-13 (7 percent). Lordy.
CORSI FOR FIVE-ON-FIVE (FWD)
- Alex Chiasson 52.55
- Tomas Jurco 52.02
- James Neal 51.84
- Nuge 51.03
- Zack Kassian 50.3
- Leon Draisaitl 49.6
- Connor McDavid 49.4
- Patrick Russell 47.53
- Markus Granlund 45.96
- Riley Sheahan 44.19
- Josh Archibald 43.70
- Gaetan Haas 43.48
- Sam Gagner 42.86
- Joakim Nygard 42.67
- Jujhar Khaira 41.85
- Colby Cave 26.19
All numbers NST. McDavid’s true line in the sand for the No. 1 trio is likely Kassian, 97 and 29 go roster walkabout and it’s a drag. Ken Holland may not want to recall Cooper Marody, Kailer Yamamoto or Tyler Benson before Christmas, but it would be a good idea to have a long look at the guys who are running in the 40’s here. Sheahan isn’t coming out of the lineup and Granlund is also a centre on this team (via Dave Tippett) but wingers not named Jurco who play bottom six need to send pucks in the right direction more often. Goals may come as a result.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE!
We’re back! It’ll be a busy Monday starting at 10, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic Fantasy will drop in to chat at 10:20, we’ll talk NFL weekend and the flurry of recent trades. Michael Bradburn from The Score will talk World Series (the Nats had a bad weekend) and Jason Gregor will pop in just after 11 to chat Oilers and Eskimos. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Have you tried Prune Juice?
Media say a lot of things. And only boxcars? I said in the quoted post that the two essentially broke even in their minutes last year. That’s what we’re aiming for no?
No, saying (implying) that Sheahan and Jurco are the only even 4th line quality players available to the Oilers is not reasonable IMO.
You’re welcome to the last word on this, if you want it. I unfortunately don’t have time today to keep going back and forth on this.
That would be a shit sandwich I believe
No it isn’t. Archie and Granny are 13th forward material. Now that Oilers fans have watched them for ~10 games, this should be obvious. Vancouver media stated same last spring about Granny. You can’t judge players solely on boxcars.
It’s not? I thought it was generally accepted on this forum that Sheahan would make a decent 4th line center, and that he was playing above his head as the 3C. Jurco has been decent in this role too, he has been spotted up the lineup due to nobody else on the roster having enough skill to warrant a look there, but I don’t think anyone here is going to argue that Jurco is a 2nd line winger solution. Other than that:
– Chiasson might be a decent bottom-6 player if he can find consistency, but so far nothing.
– Haas played a handful of games and then got demoted and his recall is injury-related – I think it’s fair to say he’s not a regular bottom-6 player at this point, and whether he’ll ever be one looks unlikely.
– Nygard hasn’t shown much, he seems like a poor man’s Drake Cagguila to me.
– Khaira is looking like a non-NHLer right now. I liked his game 2 years ago, hopefully he can get back to it.
Pretty sure I made this abundantly clear in the off season.
In short, the Neal trade was a masterstroke among a whole lot of MEH last summer. At least none of the MEH was signed for more than 2 years, if he can make one great move every summer the team will get a little better every year.
I mentioned Lucic because he played large parts of last season in the bottom 6 and Holland turned him into an apparently useful top 6.
Archibald and Granlund were full time NHLers last season who between them were -3 at even strength on two non-playoff teams. They also outscored all but 5 Oilers forwards last year. Calling them “decent bets to play 13th forward” is hyperbole. Likewise, saying in Sheahan and Jurco the Oilers have 2/3 of a 4th line and nothing else is not a reasonable position.
You spent most of the summer arguing Holland should have signed 2 top 6 forwards, how were you planning to improve the bottom 6 anyway?
That’s an aggressive use of the word “adequate”. I agree he had a couple adequate games but his play had declined over the last 3-4 and I don’t understand while Lagesson, who could be better right now (we just don’t know), didn’t receive an at bat.
Woodguy v2.0,
McDavid off is worse than previous years.
I didn’t include Neal because we were talking specifically about the bottom-6.
– Arizona owned Archibald’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they could have signed him for $770k. Holland offered him $1M.
– Vancouver owned Granlund’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they would have had to qualify him at $1.475M. Holland offered him $1.3M.
Both these guys would be decent bets to play 13th forward at league minimum.
I said in the summer that Holland’s bottom-6 was not better than Chiarelli’s bottom-6. I did not predict that they would be worse. And I’m on record as speaking positively about the late summer Sheahan signing. He doesn’t move the needle offensively but he’s a top-5 PKer in this league, and that fills a huge need for this team.
Well… since HH is actually from the Tofino trailer park, I think it’s more of a “Mr. Lahey” kind of sandwich…
$6M in cap space being paid to a bottom 6 player.
I do hope the Canucks play him in the top 6,
Slice it whatever way you like, it’s still a baloney sandwich
Trust me, it was given all the thought you give to your “Math”.
And all the maturity you give towards your posts here.
Nucks fans are so funny!
A very mature, thoughtful response to a question about math.
Nah…they have one of the best prospect pools in the league.
Lots of talent on the way.
See Pronman for reference.
The Canucks fail to win Stanley? Y’know… Again?
And, lol, you can omit the “might”.
This is sweet. It’s so convenient not having to go to the Nuckelehead Boards to taunt Nuckleheads.
Who knew they were dumb enough to make it this easy?
But this is the Canucks window. They’re all in. This is it.
They are fine.
Best goal differential in the NHL even after blowing a big lead to Washington.
5th in GF/G
3rd in GA/G
If they can get their PP cranked up, they’ll be scary.
Nope.
If Erikkson plays in the top 6 their bottom six is paid $15 million.
Since it’s highly unlikely he plays much at all, it’s just dead money.
No, I meant the Canucks being fine.
3C seems so impossible to solve when I think about it rationally.
But markets aren’t rational (in the small) and Lucic got traded.
My mind sucks on that pipe every night before sleep.
Well…Neal’s shooting percentage is currently 27.8%.
His career average is 11.9%
Pettersson’s shooting percentage is currently 16.7%
His career average is 19.1%.
What do you think might happen here?
Well then its a good thing that Eriksson’s salary doesn’t count against the cap, right?
Sorry the Canucks bottom 6 is paid $21M wherever Erickson plays
Haha
Awesome
Well if we’re talking about things that aren’t likely to sustain, Neal is a PPG and 2nd in the league in goals.
I dream of JG Pageau
Pass that pipe over here
we just need to win a game… ..
Hollands idea of only paying a guy , well low middle cash, for a year (maybe 2) .. maybe not looking great after last game, but I really don’t think we would actually want Staal, don’t want to lock up these older guys for big money long term dollars as they fade away…. .. wait I stand corrected… basically 3.2 mill for 2 years… ya, we should have gone after staal. But he’s still a little high for what we could afford.
Khaira would probably be a nice fit in Minni dont you think.
Nonsense.
The Canucks bottom six makes $15 million.
Eriksson is just dead money wherever he plays.
Problem is the Canucks bottom six makes about $20 mill. I know you’re trolling, but it’s obviously not a realistic option for the us, or anyone really.
Petterson is currently at 1.2 PPG this season.
I think they’ll be fine.
Gerta Rauss,
3C is my dream.
Well, Staal, really, but that’s a crack pipe dream.
kinda wish we had kept burdasov..
Not much happens when a Loui is on the ice so he’s been a healthy scratch.
A huge $6m anchor but he drew in tonight because of an injury.
Beagle, Leivo, Shaller, Virtanen and Pearson have all looked good in the bottom six.
Your not. Tippett’s job is to make the playoffs up until yesterday Manning was adequately doing his.
It is. And it’s a lot easier to achieve when no one on your team has ever had a point per game season.
Wilde showed that their SH% is super low, as well as pointing to part of the reason why. That’s only half of the story though.
Their SV% is extremely low too and the end result is 1GF/11GA. Brought to you by an impossibly low PDO (less than .900).
Another look at the Oilers 5v5 with the big 3 off:
18-19
TOI/Game 17:01
SF/60 28.2
SA/60 27.8
GF/60 1.12
GA/60 1.93
xGF/60 2.04
xGA/60 2.00
SCF/60 21.7
SCA/60 23.9
SH% 3.97
SV% 93.04
PDO .970
19-20
TOI/Game 17:50
SF/60 22.1
SA/60 26.3
GF/60 0.28
GA/60 3.08
xGF/60 1.58
xGA/60 1.96
SCF/60 14.6
SCA/60 23.5
SH% 1.27
SV% 88.30
PDO .896
The current group is absolutely bad. Worst than last years even. But they’re still not nearly THIS bad.
Also, despite allowing more than a goal more per 60 they look like they’re marginally better than last years group in the other the defensive metrics.
As for how improve things going forward, aside waiting for a correction. I agree with pretty much everyone else that bringing some of the youngsters up is the main way. LT projected all of Benson, Marody and Yamamoto seeing close to half the season in the NHL after all, it’s not even unexpected.
A smaller trade has a chance to help too, but it would be surprising to see anything major.
I was going to remark that Eriksson is a pretty good fourth liner, too bad he costs $6m per… Daily Faceoff has him in the 4RW slot. He’s only played 1 game this season? Is he injured?
I do like Lowetide’s adopted son, Leivo, stupid that the Oilers didn’t trade for him.
Daily Faceoff says that the Canucks have an elite second line, good third pairing then porridge.
Your don’t repeat your opinions on certain subjects? Come on, be honest with yourself here.
Well, you are are actually wrong on my thoughts so maybe I do need to continue to post about. I would do not “not want Hall” – in fact, I’ve even post on here that if the Oilers were solidly in a playoff position come February I could be on board with renting him depending on acquisition cost.
What I don’t want is what I anticipate is Hall’s next contract.
As for your last sentence, this poster has expressed that opinion on Hall just as many times as I have expressed mine – its a daily thing so I’m not drowning out anything this poster said. Further, the primary reason I repeated my thoughts in this case was because a few people have provided a counter to this poster’s position and this poster never responds to the retorts and then reiterates his position, daily. I am trying to engage in an actual hockey discussion with him
Now, I apologize if I’ve, once again, wasted your time having to read my opinion (which you could easily skip) but it seems like you have plenty of time to concern yourself with the posting style of others so maybe its not quite a big deal.
The results thus far are concerning, there’s no denying that
I’d like a larger sample size before we make sweeping statements however
We’ve got 2 guys that had never played an NHL game before, on NHL size ice(Haas, Nygard) and 1 guy that may have been injured for one or more of the games he has played thus far(Archibald)
I’d like to give these guys to the 20 game mark before we start throwing anybody overboard
With that said, I hope Kenny is watching with interest and beating the bushes for 3C (I’d like a 2LW as well but first things first)
One addition like a Pageau to this bottom six and pushing Sheahan down to 4C and suddenly the bottom six is passable
The dreaded 5-1 lead. Florida has the Nucks just where they want them.
FLA coming down from a high on a back-to-back. Bad Bobo. You’re welcome.
Hopefully the Cannots can hang on to a four goal lead. We don’t want to go by recent evidence and small sample sizes here. That would be wrong.
Well I guess technically it wasn’t – of course, it was right after the post by the guy who brought up Hall and his acquisition (and not for anywhere close to the first time, i might add) and to whom I have responded with similar responses (to never receive a response).
Of course the length of contract is a presumption but its based off of historical data and the market. Yes, Hall has stated the cup matters most and I’m sure that will factor in to the destination, however, I’m quite confidant that contract terms will be right up there in importance. I would take those direct comments from Hall with a large grain of salt given the countless athletes that have said very similar things and gone on to sign large contracts. I’m confident that Tavares talked about wanting to win and then, boom, giant contract.
Hall may very well see his injury history as well and realize that a long term contract makes the most sense and, if he doesn’t, I would guess his agent advises him of the same.
I could be wrong – maybe he signs for a shorter term.
I would have time to consider the player on a 4 year term under $9.5M but its still a risk. He hasn’t been worth that cap hit over the term of the last 4 years due to games played and I’m not sure its reasonable to think that he’ll be worth it over the next 4 years due to games played.
Well argued.
Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
Balance is a thing.
Looks like FLA tuckered themselves out playing the Oilers last night
5-1 Canucks after 1, early in the 2nd period now
Honest question about the Bottom 6…
Is our tirefire/60 better or worse than last year?
(Don’t forget the Top 6 has been on for a few)
aha.. very good!
just need 1 more guy. Haas and Nygard will be OK… Sheehan workable on 4th.. I would do it because this season is playoff possible.
If someone is calling on JP… you know maybe do it. Make the playoffs. Even if his value is a little under… make the deal. Through in Khaira and make it happen. (unless of course JP does not want to come back to la liga. ) Just saying, pull the trigger on JP before bringing up the bake lads. All we have to do is make the playoffs.
Have you tried eating prunes?