Remember that line from Casey Stengel I threw at you the other day? Last night was a win from the early shifts for Edmonton, a “laugher” for the home side. Today, Leon Draisaitl has 41 points, McDavid 37, and three more forwards are on pace for over 58 points. The team remains in first place and we are now past the ides of November. What will tomorrow bring? I don’t have a script and this doesn’t resemble anything on the shelves.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
- New Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
- Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
- Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
- Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
- Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
OILERS AFTER 21 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 7-13-1, 15 points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in 2016: 12-8-1, 25 points; goal differential +10
- Oilers in 2017: 7-12-2, 16 points; goal differential -18
- Oilers in 2018: 10-10-1, 21 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2019: 13-6-2, 28 points; goal differential +13
There’s nothing for Oilers fans to complain about and that may be a problem for some. That said, the quality of the roster’s top end is so high that Holland-Tippett have created a capable team on a shoestring budget. As I see it, the goaltending (Mike Smith) and scoring (James Neal) plus PK (a cast of many) were the key additions by management, along with Tippett who works hard on matchups and deploying his role players in areas they can succeed. Big win last night, excellent first 21 games.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2017: 3-3-1, seven points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in November 2018: 3-4-0, six points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-1, nine points; goal differential +8
The shocking difference from past seasons is the goal differential. Amazing.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points after seven games
As was the case a month ago, we reach the middle of the schedule in November with the team over-delivering points based on my prediction. The goalies are holding, the defense appears capable and the top five forwards are outscoring all the faults. Is this sustainable? Hell if I know.
OILERS 2019-20
The five forwards who are posting crooked numbers stand out from the rest, not certain any of the others is guaranteed work beyond this season (including Chiasson). The auditions continue. Caleb Jones is Oilers player No. 27 on the season. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and all info from NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 8:07, going 9-13 Corsi, 8-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 4-4 HDSC.
Leon Draisaitl had five assists, three on the power play. He leads the league’s scorers by a mile. Last year he had a chance to win the scoring title but this year is different. He has to be a strong candidate for the Hart based on the first 21 games. Amazing. Connor McDavid went 0-2-2 at five-on-five, 3-3-6 overall. Zack Kassian ran over Nathan MacKinnon in the game’s opening seconds and then got into a fight. Scored a goal at five-on-five and skated miles. I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.
LINE 2 James Neal-Nuge-Josh Archibald played 8:01, going 9-14 Corsi, 0-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC.
James Neal had a HDSC and a takeaway, along with a power-play assist. Nuge scored twice, once on the power play, and had a takeaway, a blocked shot and won six of eight in the dot. Josh Archibald had a shot and a HDSC plus a takeaway. I don’t know that he’ll get another chance with this line but he’s certainly fast enough.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:09, going 6-7 Corsi, 2-6 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira won some battles along the wall but didn’t get much done with the puck. Riley Sheahan had a HDSC and won 6 of 10 faceoffs. I swear he’ll score, this isn’t another Rieder thing. Patrick Russell had a shot on goal.
LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 7:43, going 4-11 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Joakim Nygard’s speed is valuable on this roster, he is a noticeable player. He didn’t get a lot done but did draw a penalty. Gaetan Haas takes too long to move the puck and gets flattened a lot. I love his possibilities, but he gets caught a lot. Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 11:21 together, going 10-14 Corsi, 9-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 4-4 HDSC. Spent 8:06 with McDavid, 7:43 against MacKinnon.
Darnell Nurse was the last Oilers player to touch the puck before each of the two goals entered the net. He lost a puck battle while trying to clear along the wall on the first goal and was slow to recognize danger on the second goal. He took three penalties and two giveaways. I’m a pro-Nurse observer, but that was a poor game. Ethan Bear was mostly good, he did have a giveaway and took a penalty due to waiting too long to outlet the puck. It’s exactly the kind of play rookies make and is outweighed by myriad intelligent decisions.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Caleb Jones played 11:16, going 10-15 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC. Played five minutes against the Kadri line.
Oscar Klefbom had three power-play assists, that’s an enormous evening for a defenseman. Now on pace for 55 points. Had two giveaways. Caleb Jones jumped into the rush a couple of times, had a takeaway and was effective passing the puck. He played well.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 13:19, going 7-8 Corsi, 2-5 shots, no goals and 2-0 HDSC.
Kris Russell drew a penalty, put himself in harm’s way several times and performed as you would expect. All of the possession numbers are skewed with score effects but to my eye Tippett was comfortable rolling this duo more often as the game rolled along. TOI reflects same.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 31 of 33, .939. I don’t think he saw the first shot that beat him, and he couldn’t recover after an awkward save on the second goal. Smith made several impressive stops (Avs have marksmen), stopping seven of eight HDSC.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we put the finishing touches on an unusual week. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk Oilers, Leafs, CFL playoffs and what HNIC should look like moving forward. Plus Matthew Iwanyk will talk Eskimos and we’ll chat about the possible craziness an Eskimos-Roughriders Grey Cup would do to the nation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Dylan Simpson was the better defensemen but Keegan Lowe got the contract to stay.
Escrow is NOT a problem that can be solved by delay. It is a problem that only gets worse over time because the players have always invoked an escalator greater than the growth in league revenues, when league revenues are not increasing.
The way to solve or limit the escrow problem is 1) eliminate optionality on the escalator, and force a cap dollar to be equal to a real dollar every year. OR 2) sign contracts where salaries are expressed as a percentage of the cap. (again with no optionality on the escalator.
Ryan Spooner has played in the Swiss League and the KHL this year and those numbers don’t line up with his production in Europe.
What is the point here?
geowal,
Well done. I suspect you can make the connection, though.
The team is dying for more established wingers and a 3rd line center. Strome from Eberle would have been viewed as a win if brass knew what they had, and the signs were there in Edmonton.
I’d only go so far if I had full stats on both prior years, but that’s possible. We also can’t rule out that Bear could possibly hit the NHL even faster without him.
The safe answer is that it didn’t end up mattering in either direction. I will say, however, that dynamic where Nurse passes to Bear to make the ultimate outlet play, is one that Bear has long been acclimated to.
…
Also, didn’t mention this in the first post, but Maksimov didn’t dress
Wilde,
Just spitballing here but what if Bear’s time with Lowe last year was “polishing the turd” like Sekera did with Russell?
Basically, overcompensating for a less effective partner helped make Bear a better D in the end? Knowing that he (Bear) had to be quicker on puck retrievals and outlet passes since he might not have the support of the less fleet footed Lowe helped Bear develop. So even tho the pairing might not have looked impressive, Bear was gaining valuable experience carrying more than his normal share on the pairing.
Getting mad at the Eagles and getting mad at camera work, which is particularly demanding in Colorado’s set-up because the cameras broadcast from are seemingly just a few feet above where the coaches eye-sight is, meaning you have to very actively pan the camera, and there’s a problem with players blocking other players as well as figuring out if pucks were deflected.
I should have mentioned this earlier, but another part of Jones coming up is that the Condors’ Dcorps – already struggling to a degree – loses their central pillar. Early morning tracking has me not far into the game, but the opening rotation showed me this:
Lagesson – Day
Lowe – Bouchard
Samorukov – Kulevich
That first pairing (it should be noted that the Condors run a top-4 / / bottom pairing setup, like the Oilers, as opposed to a 1st / / 2nd / / 3rd pairing setup) only showed up last year as a bottom pairing; the second pairing is Lowe + Rookie, which I have reservations about, especially because Bouchard is their strongest offensive driver on D and Lowe is the biggest dragger; and finally the third pairing is a 2L one and I’ve been down on Kulevich for a long time.
By my understanding, if I’m right about Jones, we’ll see a lot of hurt here. Which, if Jones actually manages to play top-4 in the NHL on his off-side (a situation in which treading water will be enormously encouraging) will be simultaneously affirmative of my methods of analysis on the Condors, finish off a smooth narrative about Jones’ development – as opposed to Bear’s shocking&asymmetrical rise – and be very demanding of Lagesson, Bouchard and Samorukov in that order.
I suppose that middle point could be thrown out if I drill down further on Lowe’s past two years and find more of what appears on the surface.
‘Cause last year, when the gap between Jones and Bear was notable, Bear’s main partner was Lowe.
Those are all definitely names of players followed by contextual numbers.
deardylan,
+1 to the power of 32
Yea I was just thinking no NBA to compete with in the winter. I believe the Seattle hockey franchise will be the hottest ticket in town except for 8 home games by the Seahawks.
Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season
Brad Marchand with a little lap with the player of the game trophy in Toronto, showing off the award to the home fans.
Love him or hate him, he certainly gets people talking.
Victoria Oil,
NFL and MLB don’t count
The Mariners and the Seahawks say hi.
Could you imagine if we had Dubois, in a redraft I would take him over Tkachuk Even though I was screaming at the T.V to pick Keith’s kid.
Empty net goal and the Condors lose 3-0.
Tough loss as the Condors were the better team from start to finish – that was a Vezina performance – a 39 save shutout (shots 29-26).
What about Jesse plus for a 3C?
Not sure that 3C would need to be a high end PK guy (wouldn’t hurt though) – Sheahan would be 4C knocing Hass, a non-killer, out of the lineup (unless he moves to wing).
Would still have
Nuge/Khaira
Sheahan/Archie
Russell/Granlund
Holland needs to go to work and find a 3rd line Centre that can kill penalties and win faceoffs In a critical situation.
30 shots, many high danger, no goals.
Jurco now with back to back PIMs.
Condors may never score again – Yamamoto can’t convert on a clear cut SH breakaway.
Given that they’re not re-opening the CBA, didn’t vote for the escalator this this and probably won’t next year it looks like they are waiting for actual revenues to catch up to the cap.
They’re get more of their salaries now if they don’t keep using the escalator. Time value of money. A dollar today is worth more than one next year.
I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.
Condors playing well, better team at 5 on 5 but just can’t cash – a couple 5-bell saves (one on Day and one on Joe G).
Now, Condor on a PP and Daniel Renouf attacks Brad Malone who doesn’t retaliate and its a 5 on 3.
Yamamoto, Jurco, Bouchard, Benson, Malone.
————
Geez, Bouchard, one-time, misses the net and it rims around for a clear and then later Bouchad with a shot blocked for a clear.
Not a great game for Evan.
Toronto Is going to start eating their own soon.
OriginalPouzar,
10 year deal signed April 2011
So to start the following season as the 2010-11 season is almost done
Forbes says it ends at the end of 2021/22.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2019/01/15/hockeys-big-pay-day-is-coming/#7ec40c454e44
I have now read other sources that do indeed say a year earlier.
I have no idea the answer to your question and I’m hopeful you are right on the Kass AAV – it would hurt to lose him for next year but, at the same time, they almost need a discount with the cap situation.
My post that your were responding to was in relation to the opinion that teams won’t take long term risk on players with substance abuse history and i was pointing out that Vancouver just did exactly that – substance abuse history plus coming off concussion issues.
Correct – I would also add that, even if the PP was struggling (and Bear was included in those struggles), I don’t imagine that Bouchard would be a call-up option – he’s just not ready for the NHL.
Vegas is adding some nice dinero, Seattle is the jackpot all they have is the Sounders and the masses have a ton of nerd cash just waiting to be spent. People are underestimating the cash flow they will bring in.
Seattle will be a big money maker for the league
Good sports city with a lot of corporate sponsorship
Oilers fall out of first place in the Western Conference as the Blues gain a point in an OT loss.
Of note, Oilers have 10 regulation wins and the Blues 7 – that’s is something that could be important down the road.
That pretty much means they decided escrow was the biggest issue
So I’m guessing cap goes up by a mil
Struggles continue for the top prospect – Benson loses a board battle in the defensive zone, turns the puck over and its in the net.
2-0 Colarado.
Correction on VGK being a “top 5 revenue team”
Foley said they were a “top 5,6,7 ticket revenue team”
Source: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/20367601/nhl-golden-knights-owner-bill-foley-big-plans-vegas-beyond
They still had ~$175MM revenue team, but that’s top 10, not top 5.
Fair enough – that suggested deployment presumes Kassian starting to struggle as 1RW – very well may happen and, if it does, of couse, he could be moved down. I though you were suggesting that, if Yamamoto gets called up and is playing well that he gets moved to 1RW notwithstanding Kassian continuing his success in the name of future cap management.
As an aside, I see Yamamoto as a higer skilled third line NHLer – a tenacious forechecker and piss-cutter that creates turnovers, kills penalties and adds skill to the bottom six. I’m not closing the door on him becoming a top 6 player but I think he has a bit of a lack of finish.
You could be right on the PP1 d-man deployment. Nurse’s production on PP1 in Klef’s absence last year was in the same range as Klef’s recent production. With that said, starting with Klef as PP1 made sense irrespective of contract – he was the incumbent, has a better PP skillset and did have a big year on the PP back in 2017. Now he’s top 16 in the NHL among D in 4 X 5 P/60.
Halifax loses in 2-1 in OT – quiet night for Lavoie with no points and only six shots on net.
Rodrigue not the starter for Moncton.
Kesserling with a shot and a couple blocks. -1 in a 3-2 loss for N. Eastern – I’ve got high hopes for this kid.
No points for Rasanen or McPhee in a 5-1 win – a couple shots each. Rasanen 8 for 11 in the circle.
Looks like Kemp’s assist was taken away as Yale drops a 4-3 decision.
Skyler Brind’Amour with a shot and 7 of 11 on the dot.
I didn’t include new gambling revenues but those will probably be small to start.
The NHL/MGM deal is estimated to be half of the NBA/MGM deal for $25MM, but the NHL isn’t exclusive to MGM either and other gambling revenues should come over time.
Source on NBC deal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_on_NBC
2011–21 contract
On April 19, 2011, after ESPN, Turner Sports and Fox Sports placed bids, NBC Sports announced it had reached a ten-year extension to its television contract with the NHL (through the 2020–21 season) worth nearly $2 billion over the tenure of the contract.
Source on VGK revenues: https://www.forbes.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/#334dd3434c2b
Forbes have them at $180MM. I had read $175 elsewhere and Bill Foley said they were a top 5 revenue team in the NHL in their first year in an interview that I can’t find right now. (On my phone)
Not a great start for the top prospects:
– Yamamoto gets a cross-seem pass on the PP picked off and takes a holding penalty as the play goes back the other way. Eagles score on the PP.
– Bouchard loses position in the defensive zone and takes an ensuring penalty.
With Maksimov out, Yamamoto is killing PIMs with McLeod.
NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.
SEA will add a ton.
SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.
The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.
Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.
Hard over.
2 reasons:
1) NBC deal expires 2021. So new deal in place for 21/22 season.
Deal currently is $200MM.
Originally people were projecting $500MM, but with networks desperate for “must watch live” programming like sport and ESPN making indicators that it wants to broadcast games, now people are projecting ~700MM
For sake of argument, use $600MM
I’m think they’ll account for the new deal when figuring out the 21/22 cap, but not 100%, so let’s say they are.
2) Seattle.
Vegas came in an was immediately a top 5 team in NHL revenue with revenue HRR around $175MM.
Seattle is expected to at least match this, but let’s assume $150MM
So we get:
Cap in 19/20 is 81.5MM
Increase of $2MM next year for general inflation in revenues with the PA not using the escalator to keep escrow in check.
Cap in 20/21 is 83.5
Now add in the extra $400MM from the new US T.V., divide by 32 teams, divide by 2 as the players get 50% and that’s 6.25. Also add $2MM for inflation
Cap in 21/20 is $90MM
SEA comes in and adds $150MM. Divide 32 and then 2 and you get 2.35MM. Add $2MM for inflation.
Cap in 21/22 is ~$94.5MM
I’m conservative at $2MM/yr inflation and $150MM for SEA.
I bet I’m close on the US TV deal, but it could go higher for sure.
Phil Kemp picks up an assist in the third.
Don’t sleep on Kemp as a potential down the line. Loved his play for Team USA at last years U-20.
Geez, camera angle in the Colorado arena is crazy – its like ice level – just awful….
It won’t go up very much in the next few years – in fact, speculation is it could be close to flat for next year or a nominal increase.
I don’t think Seattle’s revenue really adds all that much but the big one may be the US TV deal. The current deal expires in 2021/22 season so a new deal will kick in for the 2022/23 season – I think its for the 2023/24 season that we are likely to see a massive increase.
Of course, before then, we will have a new CBA in place so much could change on how the cap is calculated.
Rishaug and Nielson were talking about this today: 2001 with Mario and Jaromir.
Didn’t see yours before I posted mine.
Nope.
The PA agreed to not reopen the CBA until at least Set 15, 2022.
SEA starts playing Oct 2021.
Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.secondcityhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/9/16/20868234/nhlpa-declines-option-reopen-collective-bargaining-agreement-extends-to-september-15-2022-deadline
NHL teams mostly hire the people with superior database, statistical training and coding abilities than I have.
I mess around with it as a hobby, but nothing more.
Guys like GMoney have the skill sets.
My skill set is more of managing and directing an analytics department and they don’t hire off the street for those.
Occasionally someone like Tyler gets dropped in to a spot like that but his experience dwarfs mine.
I’m also not looking for a NHL job so I’m not actively publishing articles like the people who are trying to get these jobs.
I appreciate your thoughts though.
I don’t think you can think of it that way – i.e. $2M of Gagner’s cap hit goes to Kassian.
Many many players are coming off the book but reality is that they will have only apx $18M of cap room to fill 12 of the 23 roster spots.
They will have apx $25M of room with 13 spots to fill including Nurse and we know he’ll come in around $7M (it may be a bit less but that’s the range).
That $18M includes Kassian (or his replacement), Smith (or his replacement), a 3C, etc.
Of course, one hopes that $4M is opened up with a clean Russell disposition but we’ll see.
If $4M of that $18M is sent to Kasssian – yikes on the rest of the roster no matter if $2M of that $4M “came from Gagner”.
————-
Also, heck no on any “guarantees” or “promises” on roster spots or deployment – even if that was the case, I don’t see Zack signing a one year deal with multiple year deals on the table – the risk is too high – injury, regression, etc.