The Oilers are in a slump and that means lots of new things to talk about today. The Pacific Division penthouse has a new occupant, the Oilers are hanging on to a playoff spot by a thread and the “in the playoffs at American Thanksgiving” line in the sand seems like both a distant bell and a cruel joke.
One of the things I’d like to discuss is this: When should the Oilers recall one of the prospect forwards from the Bakersfield Condors?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers recall Caleb Jones, one of their most plausible trade chips
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘These games are not coming back’: Oilers lament frustrating week at home
- Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
- Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
- Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
- Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 36 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 15-18-3, 33 points; goal differential -16
- Oilers in 2016: 18-12-6, 42 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 17-17-2, 36 points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in 2018: 18-15-3, 39 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in 2019: 18-13-4, 40 points; goal differential -2
The 2016 Oilers are going to romp now, this race will get old in a hurry. That said, a win tonight gets Edmonton back to even with the truly good McDavid club. That goal differential needs some help, too.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-2-0, 12 points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2016: 3-2-3, nine points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in December 2017: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in December 2018: 5-1-1, 11 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in December 2019: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -8
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just isn’t the same! Edmonton needs three 5-1 wins in a row. Stat!
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 2-4-1, 5 points in 7 games
I have the Oilers going 2-4-1 now through the end of the month, meaning the club would finish 4-8-2, 10 points. The record for the year would be 20-17-5, 45 points in 42 games. After the strength of the first two months, that’s a disappointing record to contemplate.
OILERS FORWARDS FIVE ON FIVE SCORING
One of the arguments against recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson or other Bakersfield Condors is lack of offense. That’s more difficult to argue when the current group is so bad compared to the rest of the NHL. Here, let me show you. There are 375 forwards who have played 180 or more five on five minutes so far this season, that’s basically four lines (12 forwards) per team. If you’re a first-line forward, you should be among the 93 (31 times C, L, R) offensive scorers at five on five, right? Here are Edmonton’s No. 1 line forwards:
No. 6 Leon Draisaitl [3.12]
No. 12 Connor McDavid [3.04]
No. 28 Zack Kassian [2.54]
That’s a complete No. 1 line, and contains two of the best offensive forwards in the game, plus a solid complementary forward having a career year. No room at the Inn for any minor leaguer here. Now, let’s look at the second line forwards (94-186):
No. 104 Sam Gagner [1.98]
Oops! That’s it. Just one player qualifies as an offensive second line forward, and Mr. Gagner is also a complementary type with some defensive issues. Still, he’s bona fide and that has value. Now, No. 187-279, the third liners:
No. 272 Gaetan Haas [1.24]
Oh, come ON! You have to be kidding me! Where is everyone? Yes, the Oilers follow up having just one second line player with just one third liner (by average). And that means (you guessed it) a large group who provide fourth line offense (279-372):
No. 294 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [1.11]
No. 314 Joakim Nygard [1.00]
No. 319 Jujhar Khaira [0.98]
No. 336 Markus Granlund [0.88]
No. 343 Patrick Russell [0.83]
No. 346 James Neal [0.81]
No. 355 Alex Chiasson [0.73]
No. 366 Riley Sheahan [0.41]
No. 373 Josh Archibald [0.23]
Read ’em and weep! THREE LINES of fourth liners!!! OMG. I kid of course, but the point is worth making. If the Oilers are going to keep the kids out, then the older set surely has to deliver something that resembles NHL average. Fair?
I know someone will mention PK, so the top six PK forwards could be Leon Draisaitl, Riley Sheahan, Josh Archibald, Nuge, Jujhar Khaira and Markus Granlund. That means Joakim Nygard, James Neal and Alex Chiasson are voted off the island. But you know, Neal has had injury issues and Chiasson is a veteran, and Nygard has shown flashes. Could we exchange Patrick Russell for Benson? Yamamoto? I think we’re getting there. All numbers NST.
TONIGHT
The only game these two teams have played resulted in a 5-4 OT win for Dallas on November 16 at Rogers. Jujhar Khaira scored twice in that game. Last season Edmonton went 1-1-1 against the Stars. Dallas is 5-3-2 in their last 10, the Oilers 3-6-1.
PUCK IQ INNOVATION
The giant brains at Puck IQ have gifted us with another set of items that will rock our world. These are what I will call (from today forward) Sledgehammer: The New Testament. Here are Oilers defensemen using FO/60 (faceoffs per 60 at five on five):
We see Adam Larsson, Ethan Bear and Darnell Nurse getting the most faceoffs per 60 against elites, while Caleb Jones and Matt Benning get fewer. This also tells us that Benning and Jones would be getting more “on the fly” shift starts, they usually occur with the puck heading north. What this tells me is that Dave Tippett is using the defensemen in a logical way, although Oscar Klefbom can (and has been lately) take on more of the load.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It’s a big show to begin a big week. Sean Shapiro from The Athletic leads things off at 10:20, we’ll chat about a fascinating year so far for the Dallas Stars. Jason Gregor from TSN1260’s Jason Gregor Show tees up tonight’s game at 11, and then Chris Meaney from The Athletic will pop in to talk NFL weekend and the Monday Nighter. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
It is interesting to see Detroit and New Jersey solidly in the bottom, with a deep draft you might be able to acquire some decent players from these teams for a salary dump or send a prospect with veteran players on expiring contracts to free up space. Sam Gagner and Brandon Manning are players that will help you to acquire more ping pong balls (low quality veterans) and are on expiring contracts. You see this more often in the NBA where one or two players can make a team, bad teams will load up on overpaid veterans on expiring contracts in hope of tanking and free agency. Interesting to see if Detroit or New Jersey pursue something like this, though hockey is much more of a team sport.
I think a player needs to play games in Europe after December 1st for there to be an issue, so pretty sure he doesn’t need re-entry waivers. Not 100% certain though.
This is a very interesting question. I think it’d be re-entry waivers, maybe? But perhaps having an NHL contract past December 1st and simply being a healthy scratch for a month (he *had* played around 15 games this year), while also going through *unconditional* waivers, changes the process? Free to sign with any team that will want him or fit him in?
I don’t know! I couldn’t find anything on the usual sites.
I see what you did there, and I nod.
This is true, and a good point. I’d note though the player in question had just turned 23 on departure. McDavid and Draisaitl are the only current Oiler forwards under 25, and Khaira is the only other under 26. It’s a lot less likely that the Oilers current meh turns into anything they aren’t right now.
Agreed, he should be up at some point this year. And we likely won’t have to wait long.
Don’t burst my bubble!
Dallas didn’t play an especially tight-checking game tonight, especially in the first period, but I thought our puck management was very very good, and has come leaps and bounds over the past three four games.
More than any coach I’ve seen in a long while, these guys are listening to Tippett.
Ending the losing streak on the road against a hot team will give our boys a nice injection of confidence and belief in the system.
jp,
I think Benson gets his tires kicked some time between Christmas and the TD. As long as he continues to put up points in Bako. Holland will want to know what he is and where he’s at before then.
But I’d say there’s little chance he’s coming up while Jones is trying to establish himself. Holland will want a stable environment for a Benson audition, hopefully we’re there in the New Year.
Of course. Oilers dumped a meh player in the 90’s who went on to a near Hall of fame career in Detroit with that pesky almost dynasty.
This is an amazing season.
1 – Oilers start of the season flying.
2 – Oilers hit the skids… looks like they’re cooked.
3 – Stars game tonight other than the heart attack final minutes clinging on to a 1 goal lead they were really good once more, like they were at the start of the season.
Would be interested in everyone’s take on this most interesting season to date.
Yeah you’d like some continuity I guess but it’s such a pile of meh. I don’t think I’d have a problem with any individual being brought back next season. At the same time I don’t know if I could make a strong argument for any of them either. Would they be missed if we never saw them again?
Haas and Nygard have been decent. But I think a good chunk of their allure right now is that we don’t entirely know what they are yet. Maybe there’s more? The other gritensity Oilers are more known quantities but it’s quite likely Haas and Nygard settle out there in the end.
And next year. Yes to Benson. Maybe a Yamamoto or Marody too. Depending where Holland decides to shop there should be cap to improve this part of the roster. Surely there will be some more bargain bin hunting too (whether from the current group of some new cheap bets).
Ryan,
This is a bit tangential but I thought it was kinda interesting.
So the Oilers bottom 6 had a tough tough start to the season. If you look at the even strength scoring list since Nov. 1st though they actually fare pretty well.
5v5/60 since Nov. 1st (this is 22 games)
McDavid 3.37
Kassian 2.71
Draisaitl 2.41
Gagner 2.12
Haas 1.55
Granlund 1.53
Russell 1.36
Khaira 1.33
Nygard 1.32
Nuge 0.87
Sheahan 0.63
Chiasson 0.57
Neal 0.44
Archibald 0.31
Compared to the full season numbers WG posted yesterday… the Oilers still haven’t had a 2nd line. But there’s 4 guys scoring at 1st line rates and at least there are some 3rd line quality scorers hanging around (actually 9 forwards scoring at 3rd line or better rates).
This likely isn’t their true talent level but it might be closer than we give them credit for (or maybe not). FWIW they aren’t running hot percentages for the most part either.
Kassian saw Seguin skating into the slot and instead of taking him out, skating away into the corner to anti-swarm a harmless Benn, who was not in a high danger area, and blocked by Nurse from getting to a high danger area.
This is so typical of Kassian in the defensive area. Skating out of the picture.
I think Spector is an idiot so it makes sense he’d be all over that point of view. He’s the king of monday morning quarterbacking
The counterpoint I’ll get to after I first ask a simple question. When else has there been a team with the FIRST and SECOND leading scorers in the entire NHL that also missed the playoffs?
What if we miss the playoffs with McDavid and Draisaitl having history making point totals because we didn’t have Hall to help the secondary scoring?
I’ll send the rent cheque at the end of the month.
That is the defensive strategy of some Tier 6 Peewee teams.
I like Haas, Nygard and one of Archibald/Russell; I lean toward Russell as he is a $700k to $800k contract through and through. All three have played pretty well and will have a year of NHL/Tippett play under their belts, I hesitate to start over wholesale. Upgrade the rest, maybe use one spot to get Benson some time.
Huh? That makes no sense at all.
Kassian is the far winger, covering the far point man and boards. It is the Center’s (ie. Connor’s) responsibility to cover Seguin and the slot. Drai was where he should be, up the boards and covering the near point man. The puck comes to Seguin and McDavid has left the slot and is up against the boards, letting him walk out in front. Nurse was between Seguin and Benn but didn’t have him “covered”. Did a great job to block the pass, but if he had missed Benn would have an easy one-timer on goal. Kassian was right to try and cover Benn. The biggest problem was that Nurse’s terrific block bounced right back to Seguin. Watch the replay again. Even with his first misread, if Connor stays on his horse he is right there to tie up Seguin’s stick. Instead, he had already pulled up and was standing there as Seguin scored.
Sorry Godot, can’t agree at all. That goal was fully on the Captain.
Yeah it’s a tough spot with so many of those guys. Makes it difficult to build even an effective 2nd line.
And yes, giving Haas a shot on the 2nd line makes a lot of sense.
Pageau whom my iPhone still autocorrects to “pay day” will sign an extension in Ottawa.
Palmieri will be available, but the asking price starts with a first rounder.
That may be the case, but to make it worse, McDavid chased Draisaitl to the side board instead of staying in the slot to cover Séguin. Also, I thought wingers’ primary defensive responsibility are the Dmen and the side boards and the center’s responsibility are the other teams center and the slot …
Woodguy v2.0,
Don’t you ever bet for the fLames.
ABC, baby!
Interesting. You’re looking at the best way to protect the lead, while Tippet was looking for the best chance to score an empty netter.
Kassian executed the “anti-swarm”…leave the Rickibox, the HD scoring area and go swarm a player in the corner who is out of the play and who doesn’t have the puck.
Every game that goes by the price of a rental forward goes down. We’re already probably losing a 3rd in a deep deep draft so I can see why Holland’s hesitant to give up a 2nd. We have a couple of young cheap defenseman that might be enticing plus the Bandi kid playing in the North Pole. It’s so obvious we need a 3C. Pull the Fricking trigger Holland and win the division and then we all know it’s a crap shoot, just ask St. Loo.
For most of the game, Tippett had Nuge-Chaisson-Khaira playing against the Benn-Seguin-Radulov and while they were hemmed in at times, they kept them off the score sheet. When the Stars pulled their goalie and Tippett reunited the McDavid-Drai-Kassian trio, they gave up a goal. I know he was trying to give them a chance at an empty net goal but with 20/20 hindsight, maybe he should have stuck with Nuge.
***
With the 3 center lineup, i hope Tippett give this combination more than 2 games to establish chemistry before he reshuffles back to the Mc-David-Drai power line. I would also like to see Khaira back with Drai, as I think they cycle it much better as a duo. When Khaira is trying to cycle on Nuge’s line, he tends to be a stone alone. By my eye, they seem to be on different wavelengths and Nuge isn’t in the spots where Khaira is sending his passes.
***
A good road win where the Oilers did a good job defensively for 57 minutes then got outworked during the last 3. Thankfully Koskinen was sharp and lucky and we grinded out the win.
***
The videos shared yesterday with Tippett talking about powerplay formations were really informative. It allowed me to recognize that the Oilers are playing an “I” formation through the neutral zone and a modified pressure 1-3 in their own zone. The Stars stayed in a floating box formation for all their PK shifts and that works great unless you fail to prevent the quick cross box plays.
***
I agree with Woodguy that the Oilers put out a competitive offer for Hall but the lure of Ari’s 1st round pick was too much. NJ gave up their 2nd this year in the Subban trade and their 3rd in the Gusev trade with Veg-ville. Since the Devils fell on their face, they needed more assets to switch back to a rebuild. It’s funny because Shero’s trades showed that they were going for it this year but the season’s been sewered because of horrific goaltending.
Shero’s tactics were actually pretty good. He establised an auction with pairs of competing bidders of front runners: Col-StL from the Central, Edm-Ari from the Pacific and Bos-Fla from the Atlantic. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough pressure on the bidders to increase their offers. If it was closer to Feb trade deadline, I think Shero would have gotten a better return from more desperate teams. The news of Hall’s refusal to discuss a long term extension broke way too early and forced Shero to move before he could generate much leverage in the trade market.
Kassian was the major culprit. Seguin skated into the space when Kassian went to cover air. Kassian skated out of the slot giving Seguin all that space. Benn was out of the play off to the side and Nurse had him. Kassian thought it was a good idea to skate out of the slot and go cover somebody in the far corner who was already out of the play and who had Nurse between him and the goal.
http://31.media.tumblr.com/64f77cf63642cbd8ad0784634d72adc7/tumblr_mpuihhXKN11qkvxbjo1_500.gif
Re: Kovalchuk
Not sure he would help us at all. But out of curiosity, anyone know if he would be able to play in the NHL again this year if he signed a contract with someone? If he did, it would be for a minimal salary I would think, but someone may bite for a low risk bet for the rest of the year. However, are we not past the “Jesse” deadline where you can’t play in the NHL if you sign a contract past Dec 1? Or does that not apply since he did have a contract after that date? Would he have to pass through waivers again to play for the team he signed with? I know he already went unclaimed, but that was with a $6.5 million cap hit….
Just curious
I completely agree with WHO, McDavid was the main culprit on the goal.
The puck went up the wall where Draisaitl was battling the puck leaving Séguin wide open in the slot. Nurse initially broke up the pass but why was Séguin alone in the slot? Because McDavid inexplicably went to the side board to try to help Draisaitl win a battle instead of guarding Séguin in the slot.
For a guy who is known for hjs elite hockey sense his defensive reads are extremely suspect more often than not. How can that not be coached Into him after playing hockey for 18-19 years? Unbelievable the lack of defensive acumen shown by him several times the last few weeks, including the last time the oilers played Dallas when he cost us the lead leaving (you guessed it) Séguin to skate right into the slot and score the game tying goal.
Refs piss me off so much. It’s one thing not to call the high sticking penalty on Nygaard, but that elbow on Larsson by Benn was dirty, intentional and dangerous. Benn was pissed that Larsson beat him like a rented mule all night and responded with a cheap elbow. How the help can they let that go? Quit managing the frickin game.
I’ve been contemplating how to convey my thoughts on this very issue.
In a nutshell, the Oilers have a plethora of gritensity players along with two premium gritensity players, based upon contract status.
The premium gritensity players are Kassian and Chaser.
If you place any two gritensity or premium gritensity players on one line with anyone, even 97, that line will be shit.
However, the premium gritensity players are capable to a degree of riding shotgun on a good line.
Looking at 5v5 offense, Haas appears to be a cut above some of the gritensity players on this roster.
I’ve wondered about moving Haas to the second line.
You’re not bad, but when it comes to trolling DSF, you’re a half a step behind Original Pouzar.
Lol, same here.
Great win tonight.
The good guys played with much more structure than whatever they have been doing the past few weeks.
Unless someone was hurt I can’t understand Tipp”s think in putting the band back together with 3 minutes left to play. Their zone coverage on the GA wasn’t good, and neither was it as the clock ticked down to the buzzer.
Hopefully we continue to see the better structure.
Yes of course, something in the range of $1M X 1 or 2 years.
I think it’s been said a few times that none of the bottom 6 should return next season. That’s what I was thinking of when I made the comment. Haas has looked like he maybe should return.
His boy Jamie Benn May not even break 40 points as he continues his descent into the worst contract in the NHL
Only 5 years left after this one at 9.5 per
Reading your comment I expected you to say something more like $725k
In the last few games, absolutely.
They were pitching a shutout. Why would you change things up?
Spector voiced Holland’s fear, “what if they traded for Hall and they didn’t make the playoffs?”
Here’s the thing they don’t score empty netters. We need a goddamn 3C on a shut down line if we’re going to go anywhere. What the hell is Holland waiting for. CHRISTMAS.
Wife says: “how come the other teams all score on an empty net but the Oilers gets scored on”?
Hmm, wonder if DSF felt the same way about his beloved Stars?
Agreed. Makes no sense. You have two centres on the ice and neither is playing centre. Oh well, good win.
Paulie,
Lol, true dat… and that elbow itself was payback for Larsson destroying Benn behind the net.
I’m on board with the 1-2-3 Centre setup. The team seems to play a system when the magic duo are apart.
I’m also hoping Koskinen is officially the starter. Performance between the two isn’t close.
Woodguy v2.0,
EDM (+165) at DAL (-185) – I’ve said EDM has been value as a dog last 2 games and they lost. Not saying a damn thing today.
This is why EDM won.
I must be judicious with this power.
+1. Also played smart. Didn’t retaliate on the Benn elbow in the 3rd.