The midway point of the NHL season lands tonight for the Edmonton Oilers. The team begins the day in the playoffs and a win tonight, against Pacific Division rivals Calgary Flames, would calm the frayed nerves of Oilers nation.
Edmonton enters the game having gone 3-6-1 (seven points) in the last 10, while the Flames are 6-3-1 (13 points) in their last 10 games. There’s an ebb and flow to each season, Oilers have been in an ebb so long the team is a stranger on the shore. Need this one.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Broken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Grasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
- Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 41 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 17-22-3, 37 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016: 21-14-7, 49 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 18-21-3, 39 points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in 2018: 19-19-3, 41 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in 2019: 20-16-4, 44 points; goal differential -4
The 2019-20 campaign is running second best among Connor McDavid’s Oilers teams, but a loss tonight puts this year’s model five points shy of the playoff club. That’s a gap. The overall goal differential is also a concern, current Oilers closer to last year than the playoff team.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-5-2, 14 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, 18 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in December 2017: 7-5-1, 15 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-6-1, 13 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in December 2019: 4-7-1, 9 points; goal differential -10
The Oilers in December 2019 is hockey’s “you take the van, I’ll take the dog.” One thing the free agents on this club have to know: If Edmonton doesn’t make the playoffs, there’s a good chance they’ll be in a new town this time next season.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-7-1, 9 points in 12 games
I have tonight as a loss, with the win coming against New York next week. If Edmonton wins both, the club would finish just one point shy of my projection for December. What a strange month.
WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIPS
Matej Blumel: One goal, two shots, 16:02 for Czech; Philip Broberg: Two shots, 17:50, -1, solid play defensively in the third period and OT for Sweden. He played a lot, and RH side, in big situations. Raphael Lavoie: Assist, 12:06, +2, two shots for Canada. I liked his game, he lacks urgency without the puck although I didn’t see any mistakes. Needs to learn to look busy! Olivier Rodrigue: DNP for Canada.
OILERS 2019-20
The glimmer twins are off and gone in scoring, Edmonton has two rookies on blue every night doing everything from surviving to thriving, Koskinen has a solid season going and James Neal has 16 goals. Zack Kassian is having a career year and the team has 44 points entering Game 41. It has been a year of careening but there’s a playoff spot in play for the Oilers. Will Ken Holland add? Where will he add?
PUCK IQ DEFENSIVE NUMBERS
Okay, these are versus elites. TOI is obvious, TOI is percentage of elite time by player compared to overall minutes. Bear leads the way in percentage (36.1), Nurse leads in total time (254) against elites. DFF% is Dangerous Fenwick for and against as a percentage, and Dangerous Fenwick is a weighted shot metric using shot distance location and type of shot to give each shot a “danger” value. It’s Corsi all grown up and smart. DFF%RC is the rel number, I find it valuable to compare players against each other. For instance, it tells us Adam Larsson is on a helluva run, that Nurse, Bear and Klefbom are performing well enough to stay in their current roles. I think DFF percentage is the most valuable new tool we’ve seen in a decade. Puck IQ now has WOWY numbers and I’m sifting through them and will begin writing about these outstanding glimpses when I feel ready.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back on the radio at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Steve Lansky will talk Christmas food and World Juniors, and Ryan Pike from Flames Nation and The Sporting News will give us the story from the Calgary side. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Goaltending basically.
I’ve figured it out!
Ken is working to lower the perceived value of contract year players!
Cult of Hockey grades about the worst I’ve seen this year. Man oh man what a brutal beat down.
Somethings up.
Does Bear need to go down for a while? (I’m afraid so) Is it time for Lagesson to get a look ? (yes) Should Benson at last be called up (yes) because Neal should play limited 4th line and PP minutes only ( yes) Hey let’s at least give our beat up junker a new paint job!
yep. Time to watch the world juniors and cheer for ex oilers in the KHL. Go Minsk Go!
Whoever it is is guaranteed at least five years in the minors before a sniff of the NHL, whether he’s ready or not!
Welcome to the reign of Ken Tambellini.
The thing is, when things unravel in-season for the Edmonton Oilers, there is no turnaround.
There is never that fix all players only meeting, no rally. Things just typically get worse and worse even when you think they cannot.
Good morning everyone!
It doesn’t matter what the score is or who has been right. You crossed a line, one you can’t come back from, not with me or most others here anyways. Our host is not the GM. He’s entitled to his opinion same as you. And doesn’t need to be here at your beck and call.
Sounds like we’re gonna live up to hunters DeathMarchtm moniker this season after all.
Jaxon,
Nurse does get a ton of time with McDavid though.
His rel DFF% drops a ton without 97.
http://puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8478402&teammate=8477498
Drai watched an A.L. highlight package 22 games ago.
Just sayin’
Beginning?
I’m not sure that means what you think it does.
Against Elites DFF% I think he is about 63rd in the NHL. Against elites relative to his team he is about #36 in the NHL and first mong Oilers D in both categories. So pretty good on both accounts and the best Oiler on both accounts.
http://www.puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&tier=Elite&positions=d
Can’t wait to see which player the Oilers draft incorrectly this year
Exactly. And that is the correct lineup to begin the process.
Wow. what a mess. Goalie was bad, defence gave up too many 5 bell chances. My only hope comes from Calgary last year, They got blown out by Pittsburgh, got embarrassed and then turned their season around. The team should be embarrassed after this mess. The only good thing that happened tonight is that we timed the train out of downtown perfectly and were out of the city in 20 minutes.
This could be said for sbout 20 of the 30 teams in the league. In any given game the scales are swayed by the response of the top line players plus some level of response from the supporting cast. Usually the supporting cast is inconsistent for the middling teams. When the top line players dont respond/adapt the results are predictable in the long term. Normally solid players with experience ilke Nuge are relied upon for consistent play and leadership in trying times. I’m thinking Oiler management sees this as a gap to fill right now with a 22 year old captain.
It’s a good time for it as we can watch some of the potential talent play at the WJC. Put some joy back into hockey as well.
Maybe a good thing I avoided the blog tonight, hey?
NOW can we talk draft?
I don’t necessarily disagree with this premise,
I’m just not certain it runs this deep, or is as multi layered.
Defend/attack is pretty much everything that is killing the Oilers today
Sierra,
As a coach you have ways of finding out non hockey related effects on hockey related results. Tippett is no dummy. He’s been around the environment for 30.plus years
Every team is now coming with the same gameplay against the oilers. Shutdown the top line/ Make it low event when they are on the ice and don’t take penalties.
Well that was absolutely painful. Drai and McDavid need to get split up. Time to start figuring out which players are gonna help us next year while there are still some meaningful games left…
Nygard-McD-Kassian
Benson-Drai-Neal
Khaira-Nuge-Yamamoto
Haas-Sheahan-Archibald
Such as?
Well the LT article tomorrow is something we can look forward to. ?
Maybe some sobering words from him will soothe the masses. I trust he has some voodoo or fancy math that will explain this all. Otherwise we have to wait on Old Dutch…
I’m convinced tippett knows where the issues lie. Not sure he has authority to do anything about it.
This team is absolute dog shit. No forward depth, defence is crapping it up, and Now we don’t even have 1 reliable goalie.
The only thing reliable about this team is that you can rely on it the shit the bed.
Every. Fucking. Year.
I wish I had OP’s outlook on life. Cause for the life of me, I can’t fathom watching this team anymore
Well from my angle, everytime I saw CONNOR he was 1 on 4 in the 3rd period. Rest of the team was protecting the lead….oh wait…
That was brutal. Wtf happened 4weeks ago?
The give a shit meter isn’t even registering with Nuge and Drai
The end of the innocence and the beginning of the narcissism
Not a bad choice.
Incredible skill.
I’m contemplating the Colorado bandwagon.
I expected a 500 team.
Yes.
Was he talking politics again? He’ll never learn.
One would hope that a team that lead their division for half a season would have thicker skin & a bit more fight. Seeing yourself on video replays over & over should help you realize that your game is off. How can you let those mistakes creep back in ( more like explode onto the scene)? The only thing I can think of is the leadership has given up. If that is the case, coaching & management need to stop this or this team slides into the ocean.
To be fair, given a few years, I wouldn’t mind:
Lafrenière – McDavid – Lavoie
Benson – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Khaira – McLeod – P. Russell
Any random configuration for the 4th line?
5 wins in the last 16 games. Is this the team we expected at the start of the season?
Lol?
Vegas looks primed for a big run.
I’d go there.
OP,
You know you’ll be back. We’re all addicted. Go for a 3 am workout, and we’ll see you in the morning. I appreciate your posts.
Which bandwagon are you on? I’m looking for an out, here.
I always am.
There have been a few led by McDavid. Maybe not this year, that we know of, however.
Lololol….all I can do is laugh. You might be right afterall HH.
From top of the heap to a big heap of crap. If Holland does nothing now it is a tell. Tank harder boys it’s a good draft coming up….
I believe we saw Drai-Nuge-Kassian. Who was McDavid with?
The inevitable free fall is in play now. A close loss would have been tolerable if they were outplaying the Phlegms. Home icitis is killing them. Lease the houses, tell the players you’re saving them mortgage payments. buy a cheap motel and move them in. Make them play their way out of it.
In the old days, they used to blame players for getting blindsided for “admiring their shot.”
That sounds about right for Holland. He traded Lucic and has been admiring his shot since then.
Yup
End of the Innocence.
As they say in country music
That about does it don’t it