The Toronto Maple Leafs are a little like the “Air Coryell” San Diego Chargers: High octane both ways. The Edmonton Oilers enter Don Mills with a pretty good game, some structure and a few hands they can rely on. It’s going to be a major test, just like Saturday afternoon. Tabernac Monday?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers notebook: James Neal’s resurgence, Matt Benning’s injury and the Tyler Benson recall temptation
- New Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
- New Scott Burnside: Grading all 31 NHL teams at the midpoint of the season
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
- Jonathan Willis: It would be a mistake to write off the Oilers after their December slump
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From Leon Draisaitl to the penalty kill, the things the Oilers need to improve to get back to the playoffs
- Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Kailer Yamamoto’s 2019-20 debut in the Oilers’ New Year’s Eve game.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: James Neal puts on New Year’s Eve show to remember in Oilers’ thriller
- Lowetide: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
- Jonathan Willis and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How are our Oilers predictions holding up at the midseason mark? We decided to find out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers midseason report card shows an unbalanced team with a lot of replaceable parts
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
OILERS AFTER 45 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 17-23-5, 39 points; goal differential -24
- Oilers in 2016-17: 23-15-7, 53 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017-18: 19-23-3, 41 points; goal differential -26
- Oilers in 2018-19: 21-21-3, 45 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2019-20: 22-17-5, 49 points; goal differential -5
The current Oilers have a chance to clear 50 points tonight, and continue cleaning up that goal differential. As we continue toward March, the 2016-17 team is going to get so far ahead we’ll lose sight of their taillights. A win tonight and both teams are at the same intersection.
OILERS IN JANUARY
- Oilers in January 2016: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in January 2017: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in January 2018: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in January 2019: 2-1-0, two points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in January 2020: 1-0-1, three points; goal differential +1
The bonus double u in Boston gives us a chance to dream a little about the possibilities this month. Another October (or mini-October) would basically guarantee a playoff berth. Too much to dream.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
- Current results: 1-0-1, three points in two games
I have tonight as a loss, but the game against the Bruins featured a tight team (in a good way) with more than one option for any challenge. No idea if we’ll see them again, but the Maple Leafs have holes and if this group can offer something close to balance, well, I’m getting ahead of myself.
OILERS 2019-20
Puck IQ suggests Dave Tippett will be running the McDavid and Draisaitl lines against Toronto’s elites, with Klefbom-Larsson and Nurse-Bear getting the heart of the order from the defensive side. Patrick Russell hasn’t played since the Calgary game just after Christmas. I think we’re heading for a transaction.
MAPLE LEAFS 2019-20
Puck IQ suggests the Rielly and Marincin pairings will see the tougher chores, but Ceci has faced tough competition (Dermott not much). I think Rielly and Barrie are absolute dynamite, great players. Coaching changes mean shuffle and I expect Marincin is getting a slight push. Thrilled, gotta say. Up front, Tavares and Matthews lines get the hose from the forward group.
GRANDMA
My Grandma was a Maple Leafs fan. She would yell at the goalies (famously Gary Smith, later famously Mike Palmateer) to get back in their nets. She was a fan, which is to say I didn’t notice any give in her devotion between 1967 (SC winners) and after the trade of Palmateer (in 1980).
In many ways, she’s responsible for me remembering all these Maple Leafs stories, like their young defensemen (she used to gauge them based on the Tim Horton-Allan Stanley-Bob Baun blue and they all got stern lectures) and the two brave young Swedes (Borje Salming, Inge Hammarstrom) who overcame bias, bigotry and in the case of Hammarstrom his own team owner.
THE 2014 DRAFT
I always wait five years for a draft to call it, although it is often decided long before. The 2012 draft was basically a fail the second time Dallas Eakins healthy scratched Nail Yakupov. The 2015 draft is in its final year but is already a smashing success. There are exceptions, though. If William Lagesson emerges as a legit NHL player, he should help the 2014 draft over the finish line. Leon Draisaitl alone might cover the bet (his next goal will be No. 150) but a 500-game career from Lagesson would put it to rest. The young Swede made his NHL debut in draft +6, so the five-year rule does have exceptions. I’m starting work on my 2020 draft coverage today, you should see a top 30 later this week.
That’s a long time, to be honest, luck is such a big damned factor one would think there’s a win on the other end this streak. Maybe Taylor Hall will watch tonight’s game, see the Oilers win, and decide in his mind to join the band on July 1. Then again, maybe Nik Khabibulin is thinking the same thing.
Btw. Kudos to RNH for that back check / no look backhand pass to McDavid.
Well put. I couldn’t have said it better myself. I can tell you from my own vantage point at the game, there was stunned silence from the Leaf’s fans after he scored that absolutely sublime goal. What a masterful display of skill and talent. His speed…just incredible.
Edmonton finally got that monkey off their back in what was a really entertaining game. Best Oiler game I’ve seen in a long time.
PVRd the game and just read the comments
Im happy that KT not only made it to the game, but a game that his family will never forget.
Oilers beating the Leafs in Toronto was beautiful.
Just when a person thinks they have seen everything that is amazing by the best player in the league, McDavid gets us to hold his beer.Wow.
I think it was real (the pout) for both players.
After their disastrous December together and their amazing run since being split up I think Tippett has them on side with it.
I also think the pout was real.
Do you have a link?
https://twitter.com/Juquu/status/1214215557182099457?s=20
mmmmKay so which are the real 2019-20 Oilers? That team who stormed out of the gates with a 2 person forward corps(literally) dominating until their collective wheels fell off and then they declined and the rest of the schmucks came down to earth as few were contributing for shite?
Or are they these new improved Oilers with Nurse, Yamamoto to name 2 players who have both elevated the team’s fortunes by auspicious play?
Am particularly happy to eat my words about Yamamoto, who is still too small and I still expect him to get flattened sometime between now and March, but he’s seriously developed himself down in the AHL the way players are always supposed to unless its a Lowe/MacT desperate to fool the suckers ahem fans with strategy of personal failings and selfishness.
Ever since Katz came clean the team’s fortunes have started looking up. Of course I too thought the season was over about 4 games ago, but they’re beating top eastern teams away which schmucks rarely can do consistently.
And so, does anyone know what the rest of the season is likely to bring? So far, even if they’re skating on thin ice they’re in playoff position in January.
Vancouver is 1 point back and has 3 games in hand.
BUT: they play the next 5 games on the road – TBY, FLA, BUF, MIN AND WPG – and they have a losing record (9-10-1) in away games. So which will carry over, their Away record or their 7-game winning streak?
Mike Smith won but that’s a far cry from saying he played well. We outscored his mistakes because normally a goalie who gives up 4 goals and has a save% under 0.900 will lose. He played the first and second goals badly even though he was excellent in the first period. He’s just off balance way too often and guessing where the shots are coming from rather than reading and reacting.
The first was a partial 3 on 2 with Khaira late on the backcheck. There wasn’t good communication on the play as Jones should have asked Khaira to take Spezza wide. Maybe a little too puck focused by all the defenders. Smith leaned way too far to his glove side and I felt he was guessing that Engvall was taking the shot rather than reacting to the play.
On the second, I felt he was way too far in his net. Marchment made a perfect area pass to Gauthier into the center slot that Smith could have taken a strong step to the middle to cut the angle before sliding back to his stick side. Instead, he leaned waaay to far too his glove side again and his momentum was going the wrong way when Gauthier cut left. He was horribly off balance so felt his only way to make the save was to try the leg flail windmill in the air and to cut off the bottom of the net… which totally didn’t work.
Honestly if you look at Smiths last 10 starts, he only deserved to win 2 games with save percentages under 0.900 in 8 of 10. His record is 3-5-2 in those 10 but only because the team in front of him piled 6 goals on the opponents tonight. If we objectively look at how he’s playing right now he’s just flailing at shots or guessing or lunging off balance way too often to be successful. Also, he’s been beaten so many times cleanly on his glove side lately, I think he’s overreacting that direction to try put more of his body in the path of glove side shots and exposing his stick side or being off balance when the play goes to his stick side.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/smithmi01/gamelog/2020/
Chiasson’s goal was the only real weak goal on the Leaf goalies. The first by Klef was a screen shot past Nygard, the second was Nurse with a floating screen by Kassian to pick a corner, and the 3rd was Yamamoto getting lost in coverage. When Drai threw the cross ice backhand to Jones, Nuge was standing right in front of the net so Andersen had to respect both a shot from Jones and a possible tip/shot pass to Nuge leaving Yama totally open as the defence shifted right. Chiasson’s goal was a shot that goalies save 95-98 times out of a 100. Andersen was in position but the shot handcuffed him and snuck in. The fifth was Drai picking a post and in with Klef driving to the net and providing a screen. The sixth was McMagic.
Watched the game on PVR about 15 mins behind (hate commercials) and then raced to the curling club to play a late draw. The whole club was buzzing about the goal. Dozens of grown men in their 30s, 40s and 50s marveling at the artistry of this amazing athlete.
Like Gretzky before him, Connor simply changes the physics of the game and makes the improbable probable.
The one trait Wayne and Connor share? They never look down at the puck!!! They were/are an absolute blessing to this cold northern town.
Lamar Jackson
Thought Keefe’s 5 on 3 timeout was a misstep. The players must know what to do in that situation. How does a timeout change the plan? Weird one.
I also thought Larsson had one of the most active games I’ve ever seen him play. Walking the line, carrying the puck, setting up for off wing shots.
Yamamoto was credited with one takeaway but he created so many turnovers throughout the game.
And McDavid – wow.
Rewatched the game because it was so damn entertaining. Yamamoto is a great addition to 2L. For a short guy, he has an amazing stick. Thought Nurse had a great game too. All the dmen looked good really. The bottom six really contributed in a meaningful way too. Nygaard, Sheahan and Archibald really stood out to me; fast and tenacious.
I’m worried about JJ though. He’s maybe the only player tonight who really didn’t contribute in a meaningful way. He was just there. He didn’t even play on the PK. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yama takes his spot there soon. Not sure what the hell you do with JJ. I think his future here will soon be done.
Awesome KT!
Love it, so happy for you & your family!
Knighttown loved the play by play. Glad you made it. Thats gonna be a story to tell your grandkids
I saw this as well. Not familiar with game score…
Hey Wilde, would you be able to explain what Game Score number means?
Thanks in advance
Wilde,
Wowza
Apologies if anyone mentioned this already, but a Finn on Twitter appears to have the Game Score numbers for the SM-Liiga and posted the top 15 forwards and top 10 defensemen – Jesse Puljujärvi is at 4.20/GP, with the next highest 3.44; which is astonishing. The 15th highest number is 2.41!
e: If anyone is wondering, the reason the numbers are so much higher than my AHL data is because I only use 5-on-5 numbers (and some stuff like blocked shots is taken out of my version of the formula) which makes something like 1.00 very high
His edge work is amazing. Straight speed is only one part of playing fast.
Glovjuice,
But I agree that it was brilliant!
No need to cheapen it. When Jordan did things like that he didn’t have to beat a goalie after the initial blow-by.
That goal was pure Michael Jordan.
That may be the first time we’ve (I’ve) seen McDavid use a flat out change of speed/pace to beat the d-man – its almost always high speed dangles or straight out speed.
He may still have another offensive gear (he has more “gears” to his game as he matures as an overall player but, as far as offence, he’s near his prime).
Overall prime is still 3-4 years away.
Agree with the assesment – watched him a lot last year and this year in the Bake and he doesn’t have the next level pull-away speed but damn is he quick and he gets on players very fast – part of it I think is plus edge ability – to turn and change skating angles without loss of speed – I think – I might be making that up.
just watched Sheldon Keefe’s presser…. very articulate straight forward guy, that I think players would like to play for. He strikes me as a very likeable person and a good motivator. He said they lost their structure and opened up the ice for macdavid.
I think that when both teams are fast, their are more spaces. One moves through and clear, faster, creating lanes. That’s why this game was so good. Lots of lanes and lots of speed.
Great answer!
Of course, in my opinion, the theory/verbal/premise that Drai “pouts” when not with McDavid is complete gibberish – just my opinion though.
My goodness that makes me happy – oh, yes, the Union Station train from the airport would be a no-brainer – 2 blocks from the rink.
I was at the game too, can confirm that there were numerous Leaf fan’s applauding Connor’s goal.
Leaf TSN crew is too hard on their players.
When you live in an NHL town you take for granted how easy it is to see a game. For those of us 1000 miles away from the nearest NHL town, you run the risk of shooting your wad to see a 3-1 snooze fest loss to the Wild. But you take that shot in case you see a 6-4 magic show on a crisp January evening.
If you able, go see him. Do it often.
I’m in Evansville, IN which makes Nashville the closest NHL city and it is a GREAT place to see a game.
Went to Rogers Place for the first time home for the holidays and spent a lot of money on that disappointing loss to the Penguins (should’ve gone to see the Habs game the next night).
It’s hard and it’s weird being a sports fan.
Opinion<Facts
Play dies on his stick, go watch the last powerplay. Play=Dead when Chase gets involved. He makes Neal look like a v6 in a rsx instead of a v6 in a Ford econoline.
There's plenty of better options then the guy battling for 13th forward. If he's the powerplay specialist, whoever is making that decision needs assistance immediately imo. Which I conclude is not fact but Chase still sucks.
Kinger_Oil.redux,
Had 2 days originally so had planned HOF, CN Tower and aquarium. We’ll probably have to narrow it down. Leave tomorrow evening.
Victoria Oil,
Literal bowing in the aisles, we’re not worthy style.
Enjoy the drinks. I certainly enjoyed your report. Thanks. I could hear the crowd cheer and rumble after THE GOAL and the sound on my computer was off. It was truly amazing.
I (and others) acknowledged Chiasson’s nice shot. Third line played a solid game.
Benson will, likely, get his call-up in the next 1-6 weeks but there is no rush. This team has been scoring lots of goals lately and lots of goals at 5 on .
I’m sure Holland is looking for a 3C and a scoring winger but, as we’ve discussed, in my opinion, he is very unlikely to pay for a “material rental” – he will either find a depth option in that regard or consummate a hockey trade for acquire a player that will help past this year – that type of hockey trade is rarely made in-season though.
I’m now at the hotel bar enjoying a couple of whisky sours while Mrs KT tucks the kiddos in. The stresses of the day are long gone.
Knighttown, the man who crawled through 500 yards of shit and came out clean on the other side.
– Nice glad your family got here… What a story. How long in T-Dot you guys staying here? Do you have your plans set for rest of trip?
So glad you made it!
I’ll bet those sours are tasting mighty sweet!
Then the third.
We got a couple quick PPs. It seemed like the Leafs were jumping the McDavid zone entry so Leon and Chaser took the ice given to them and had a nice two man rush. Leon’s shot was a laser. Just inside the far side post about 2 feet off the ice if I’m not mistaken.
And then it happened. The seas parted. The heavens opened. The virgins did virgin-like dances.
Nuge picked off a pass in Nuge-fashion and sent 97 off on a classic 1-on-1. I actually said “look out Morgan”. He appeared to try and by time for Nuge to join but 93 was picked. In that split instance he executed a linear crossover touched by God. I’m amazed Rielly didn’t fall. After he finished I was up yelling “oh my God” like some blabbering fool but to my amazement Leafs jerseys were literally bowing.
They were bowing down and seemed to be sharing in the moment as much as I was. The muttering (not grumbling) continued on for minutes.
On the same shift 97 danced through the befuddled Leafs again and it appeared he was blatantly hooked. This was the beginning of “mail it in Monday” for the refs. After the missed hook Nygard took off in chase of maybe Holl and received a blatant elbow in the chops that went uncalled. The Jones was executing a basic breakout pass, was hooked badly and panicked by trying to get the puck off his stick and it went over the glass. He was called and none of the other three were. Of course Matthews scores.
The last 3 minutes were picture perfect except for our complete inability to hit an open net.
Knightown – Very happy you made it. Pearson airport has been a highly unreliable if not an outright nightmare in my own recent experience. I was recently stuck there with a couple from New Brunswick who were on their way to Edmonton for the Leafs game and then a romantic weekend at the Banff Springs. They arrived in time to have a Sat night and Sunday in Banff. A very expensive heartbreak for them.
Excellent, very subtle Seinfeld reference. Nicely done.
In the second Cam and I continued to focus on the game but Gabby’s focus turned to getting on camera. There were lots of dances but they weren’t letting a cutie in a McDavid jersey and Oilers toque get screen time.
Nurse, who was terrific by the way, scored another lucky one. I remember the pass from McDavid. The missus said to me…”he sees everything”… and I think that’s right. Then we got the Yammer goal which I’m hearing was on a feed by Jones. If so, that was a beauty pass.
I felt borderline cocky at 4-1 and may have mentioned to a few local seat mates that it was about time to head home to avoid traffic like typical Leafs fans.
Then Engvall set up…someone…for a gorgeous goal and you just knew it was about the get interesting. Then the GOAT had his breakaway. I’m still not sure where Oscar was and why Smith went full Johnny Bower.
A nervous second intermission.
“I felt borderline cocky at 4-1 and may have mentioned to a few local seat mates that it was about time to head home to avoid traffic like typical Leafs fans.”
Beautiful, albeit foolish knowing who you cheer for
I think many were standing and walking out of the building. McDavid doesn’t just score, he rips out your spirit and stomps on it.
Some summaries from row 11…
First period was real treat. The Leafs were dangerous but you could tell McDavid was feeling it. That Klefbom goal shift was 20 feet in front of my and there were so many good touches. Reminded me of the way the Sedins used to you with us. The goal was…inevitable.
Couldn’t really see what went wrong but later in the first Johnny Tavares got free for a laser from the kill zone and Smith fought it off. That was a big moment.
knighttown,
That’s great you made it! What a game to see, I’m curious as to Leafs fans reaction to the McDavid goal in house, looked on TV liked many were standing for it.
97 didn’t just fool Rielly, he also fooled me.
I’m thinking to myself, why are you slowing down and curling? Then BAM. And then I’m like, well that was nice, but now you don’t have enough time or space to get a good shot off. Then 97 gets the shot off AND scores.
Dead wrong thrice in about 3 seconds.
He did that 3 or 4 times tonight, that quick little juke to get a better angle on his shot. Complete witchcraft.
Oh, man.
Just found out about the Mooseheads trading Lavoie to Chicoutimi.
While I love the Mooseheads and their logo, the Saguenéens are also up there, particularly for uniqueness. He’ll wear it well and hopefully go far through the playoffs and Memorial Cup.
If Chase was on the top PP he would have 10-12 Goals in my opinion.
I think I’ve rewatched the McDavid goal like 8 times already and I can’t stop giggling. It’s just ridiculous. We don’t deserve McDavid but we have him on the team so i’ll just savour every amazing moment.
Great goal by Connor caught him flat footed with his eyes. Gretz used to do that once or twice himself. Where’s HH tonight it sure would be fun to tease him or is that no longer allowed in today’s hurt feelings society.
Leafs go home devastated!
Benson needs to save those 25 games so he can win the Calder next season.