2019-20 Game 48: Predators at Oilers

by Lowetide

We’re past the halfway pole and the Edmonton Oilers remain valiantly in the playoff race. I remain at the ready with my heartbreak country songs (“the money ran out and the engine blew”) and Armageddon movie references (“When the Wind Blows”). I’m beginning to think we’re not going to need them.

At the same time, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The four games before us, all at home before the end of January, offer another challenge. I think Pierre Lebrun’s usage of the word IF yesterday (“I believe Edmonton, if the Oilers stay in the race, have Pageau on their target list“) places the Oilers chances in perspective. That’s about right.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide:  Oilers prospect pipeline could deliver below-average group in 2020-21
  • Jonathan Willis: Several factors led to Oilers’ Zack Kassian’s inevitable hearing with NHL Player Safety
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian calls Matthew Tkachuk a ‘p****,’ says he’d go after him again despite Oilers’ loss
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Mike Smith stars in Oilers victory, but others’ struggles could prompt changes
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Minnia Feng: Zamboni Ursula: What if Oilers fans could change something in the team’s past?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: ‘That’s the nicest goal I’ve ever seen’: Connor McDavid’s teammates amazed by his latest effort
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers notebook: James Neal’s resurgence, Matt Benning’s injury and the Tyler Benson recall temptation
  • Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS AFTER 48

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 19-24-5, 43 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 25-15-8, 58 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 21-24-3, 45 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-22-3, 49 points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 24-18-5, 53 points; goal differential -3

Edmonton is now losing touch with the 2016-17 team, but we expected that to happen sooner. A win tonight would have the Oilers on a 94-point trajectory and that’s the playoffs.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Current 10 games: 4-2-1. 

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-2, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2017: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2018: 2-4-0, four points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in January 2019: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2020: 3-1-1, seven points; goal differential +3

This remains the best January of the McDavid era, no matter what happens tonight. A fabulous road trip, one we’ll remember for many reasons, has us here. Edmonton needs the homestand to shine just as bright.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 3-1-1)
  • At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
  • Current results: 3-1-1seven points in five games

Before the month began, I predicted just three points from the home stand. That’s kind of tragic, but the Oilers weren’t playing too well and there are good teams on the schedule before the end of the month.

OILERS FIVE PER 60 SCORING

The Oilers have a problem tonight, but it’s also an opportunity. I expect the team will keep the No. 2 line together, as that trio is gaining some real traction. McDavid-Neal also likely stays together, and one imagines Dave Tippett will ponder Archibald, Chiasson, Gagner and Nygard as possible options on McDavid’s other wing. I picked Nygard because of the speed, but also because of the success of the duo (in 52:37 five on five, it’s 6-2 goals, 51.9 Corsi).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a busy day ahead and we get things started, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us and talk about the recent road trip and the home stand to come. Andrew Peard will talk Oil Kings and trade deadline results and your comments are welcome. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Genjutsu

Nit64:
Personally happy for this big peek behind the paywall. But especially for same day material that’s way more than the line or two that LT says is OK.

It’s worth every penny for the Lowetide content alone.

russ99

Nit64,

Yikes.

Here in Chicago, it’s been balmy for the last month, but it’s sure coming, you guys just get it first and get it worse. I’m sure a good ole Alberta clipper is inbound in a week or two.

russ99

tcho,

It was a nice goal, but that was mostly McDavid.

Archibald is a decent player but he’s still a bottom 6 energy PK type. If Archibald, Nygard and an accurate shooter were all one player, then we’d be on to something.

Kassian adds things that are not as measurable (at least until we get trackers) physicality, defensive responsibility, tough play on the wall to keep own zone sorties going.

I wouldn’t break the bank, but I’d bring him back on a reasonable deal.

N64

JimmyV1965: A 3C would be nice

3C would be very nice. Currently at -38C, but env can says we’ll reach 3C before the trade deadline

Darth Tu

You have earned a chuckle from me.

jp

JimmyV1965: I actually think we just need two forwards. A 3C would be nice, but two wingers would work just as well and likely be easier to acquire. We do this and the team is as competitive as any in the Pacific.

Right, fair enough.

IMO even one winger would/should make a huge difference.

Bulging Twine

14 games to the trade deadline

When is your window?
Holland: when you have McDavid your window is now.
My aim this year was to make the playoffs.
Anyone who gets into the playoffs has a chance.

This mindset leads me to believe that if the Oil are in it at the trade deadline, Holland will add.

Bulging Twine

Bouchard #1 in Goals for rookie D

Darth Tu

At 20 years old, on “one of the worst teams in the AHL”. Really puts the achievements of that Humphrey Bogart guy that HH goes on about into perspective. 😉

Boil-in-the-Oil

OriginalPouzar,

It will be interesting to see how everything goes at the allstar game. But our 1st game after the break is at home vs the Flames… a test for Kass, shame for turtle.

LET’S GO OILERS, LET’S GO!

JimmyV1965

jp: Has he been saying that? I haven’t been keeping close tabs.

I actually think we just need two forwards. A 3C would be nice, but two wingers would work just as well and likely be easier to acquire. We do this and the team is as competitive as any in the Pacific.

Reja

Huge win. Smith needs to get some rest because he’s starting the early game Saturday if we’re to make the playoffs a win would inch us closer to the dance.

Thomas Tatar

hickey99,

I think you may have something here. In fact, I believe there is an opportunity for the Oilers to fuel the BoA while at the same time being classy. The Oil Kings do a Teddy Bear Toss for Santas Anonymous. The Oilers should arrange a stuffed Turtle Toss with proceeds going to support ALS research for Calgary’s Assistant GM, Chris Snow.

OriginalPouzar

steelymac17:
All for Kassian signing a team friendly deal but do you honestly think Archibald keeps the tkatchucks in line?me either.

I don’t think that Kassian keeps the Tkachuk’s in line – as we’ve seen.

jp

Wilde:
On Twitter this morning, I shared some of the Condors’ recent(ish) line/pairing combinations’ shot and goal shares, I’ll transcribe them here too, with some other details as well for those who’ve already read the tweets:

Thanks very much for this stuff.

tcho

steelymac17,

Does Kassian keep the Tfuks of the world in line?

steelymac17

All for Kassian signing a team friendly deal but do you honestly think Archibald keeps the tkatchucks in line?me either.

steelymac17

tcho:
To me, Archie’s performance tonight adds to the evidence of just how expendable Kassian is. If Kass is willing to sign a decent contract, you sign him. If not, he walks. If not, you sign a Maroon, or move in an Archibald, or…. The Oilers have, unfortunately, put themselves in a position that they can’t afford to overpay for complementary pieces such as Kass IMO.

jp

Younger Oil:
Draisaitl has gotten a lot of flak at times since the start of December or so for lack of effort/production.

Since December 1, he has 25 points in 20 games, a 103 point pace for a full season.

Just shows how much we can take for granted sometimes.

That is impressive. The issue is he’s -19 in those 20 games.

Luckily he appears back to being good Leon for a little now.

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Oilers keep pressing for offence in the dying minutes while protecting the lead – keep playing down in the Predator zone….

McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge getting big big minutes protecting leads for a little while now. At the expense of Sheahan.

tcho

To me, Archie’s performance tonight adds to the evidence of just how expendable Kassian is. If Kass is willing to sign a decent contract, you sign him. If not, he walks. If not, you sign a Maroon, or move in an Archibald, or…. The Oilers have, unfortunately, put themselves in a position that they can’t afford to overpay for complementary pieces such as Kass IMO.

Younger Oil

Draisaitl has gotten a lot of flak at times since the start of December or so for lack of effort/production.

Since December 1, he has 25 points in 20 games, a 103 point pace for a full season.

Just shows how much we can take for granted sometimes.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

My take is it’s less about the points he’s been racking up, and more about the amount of goals he’s been on ice for by the opposition.

Thankfully, he’s back to looking more like Selke-Leon than the saloon door.

jp

Derek: I’d keep them both, though I kind of have a thing for bottom 6ers that can skate.That way even if they’re not Bergeron defensively their wheels always give them a chance to get back on the right side of the puck.

I wouldn’t be at all opposed. But if you pencil Benson and Yamamoto in for next year there aren’t that many open lineup spots.

OriginalPouzar

Another 2 points in the bank which put some more distance between EDM and NSH and points gained on all except ARI and WIN.

Plus: regulation win – we are killing the first tiebreak!

jp

OriginalPouzar: Jimmy????

Has he been saying that? I haven’t been keeping close tabs.

drglen

too bad arizona with the big win tonight.

Oil needs to beat Arizona at home.

Darth Tu

We do. But we also want Arizona to beat down Vancouver.

Munny

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
That may have been the most difficult goal scored on an empty net.Ever.

I don’t know. Bobby Orr has an absolute killer.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Wouldn’t doubt it, but haven’t seen it either. Have a link handy, perchance?

(Also, I was being hyperbolic for fun.)

Munny
jp

Huge win tonight.

That was an impressive period and a half defending a one goal lead. The team looked mature almost.

Another nice game for Smith too.

drglen

take the two points quietly.

Hey ride smith until smith hammered, and he will.

Bulging Twine

Yuge

N64

HH yesterday:

“The Canadiens just did VCR a huge favour. They now have two chances to take over first place in the Pacific.”

That aged well. 3 pts back of Yotes.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

That may have been the most difficult goal scored on an empty net. Ever.

OriginalPouzar

That was a heck of an empty net snipe by Drai – ha!

Munny

That was painful lol

But I’ll take the win. This has been a very good 5 game stretch by the Slick.

Oh and the ice looks better when its -400 outside.

drglen

Leon pots the empty net on the hapless but game predators.

jp

Did Draisaitl bank that? Or manage to roof it himself?

Edit: man he has a lethal shot.

OriginalPouzar

Drai with his second of the night and third point.

After scoring 50 goals with ZERO empty netters, he’s got 3 this year, I think (maybe just two).

norm_klassen

Empty net curse is official busted !!

OriginalPouzar

jp:
This Oilers team isn’t far. (that is they don’t need 2 wingers AND a 3C)

Jimmy????

Munny

What are the refs doing? did the Preds try to put a ringer out there?

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Larsson has looked better as the game has gone on – very solid 3rd period.

Quietly 2nd in TOI (ahead of Nurse and Bear).

OriginalPouzar

Didn’t know that – thanks.

OriginalPouzar

As an aside, although he’s still not 100%, the real Ryan Nugent Hopkins, complete with offence, has been back for a good 3 weeks now..

No, he’s not a “1st overall pick offensive guy” but the real RNH is a substantial top 6 player along with plus special teams – huge to have him back.

Yeti

drglen: We are living dangerously here.

In case you like obscure prog rock! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzwUuwTQS3E

drglen

why yes, I do! Super cool. 54 time riffs with hammond organ? Lots of drum fills.

drglen

looks like we will win this one. Too many men call on preds… we should… be able to win this.

Munny

Okay that’s the trhid time this period we didn’t score when we should’ve.

At least we get a PP out of it.

OriginalPouzar

I thought there was an empty net and then, all of a sudden, RInne was back in – leads to too many men – huge.

norm_klassen

This is the blueprint for playoffs?!!!!

drglen

oh,, how could we miss. Leon.

jp

drglen:
have we seen Jones this period?

Tippett’s trying to work him in but he still doesn’t trust him at all.

Another amazing chance. And the PP.

drglen

Ekblom big time clear for Nash.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers keep pressing for offence in the dying minutes while protecting the lead – keep playing down in the Predator zone….

Munny

Woulda coulda shoulda