Ken Holland likes old people, and it’s already having an impact on the roster. Veterans 27 and older are on track to play over 500 man games this season, an increase over last year (412). At the same time, the department of youth (age 18-22) is on pace to play 222 games, the lowest total in five years. This is not a drill. The Edmonton Oilers are growing up.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
- Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline and the changes expected to come
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers extend Zack Kassian, betting the power forward can continue to produce with Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That’s good for hockey’: Former Oilers weigh in on Battle of Alberta hype ahead of Tkachuk-Kassian meeting
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
- Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
MCDAVID CLUSTER (18-22)
Jesse Puljujarvi and Evan Bouchard should and will (respectively) be part of this cluster, replacing all the home runs created with Leon Draisaitl graduating. A year ago, this cluster was six deep, and may increase in total by year’s end (Bouchard, Tyler Benson). However, with Draisaitl moving to the ‘peak’ cluster, the falloff from past seasons is drastic:
- 2015-16: 411 games, 63-125-136 .331 points-per-game; .153 goals-per-game
- 2016-17: 409 games, 80-170-250 .611 points, .196 goals
- 2017-18: 334 games, 85-146-231 .692 points, .254 goals
- 2018-19: 253 games, 98-141-239 .945 points, .387 goals
- 2019-20: 141 games, 40-71-111 .787 points, .284 goals
The most efficient McDavid cluster was a year ago, with 97-29 delivering 91 goals. That’s enormous offense from a sliver of the roster. Don’t think about it, it’ll drive you insane. The gap is Draisaitl. He graduated. Puljujarvi was poorly developed and we are here. The emergence of Bear, Jones and Yamamoto is wildly encouraging. Need more. Benson? Bouchard? What happened to Marody? Under Holland, this category might not get to 150 man games next season.
THE PRIME CLUSTER (23-26)
- 2015-16: 485 games, 68-96-164 .338 points and .140 goals
- 2016-17: 515 games, 72-123-195 .379 points and .140 goals
- 2017-18: 717 games, 101-133-234 .325 points and .141 goals
- 2018-19: 778 games, 71-165-236 .303 points and .091 goals
- 2019-20: 487 games, 73-153-226 .464 points and .150 goals
This year’s prime cluster will be the best in the five year run we’re looking at, that’s a positive. It’ll be even better a year from now when McDavid moves to this part of the depth chart. The key will be having enough pushing up from the young group, and, perhaps for the first time in one forever, a veteran group that has enough quality to help the Oilers make the playoffs and get deep into spring.
THE VETERAN CLUSTER (27+)
- 2015-16: 667 games, 68-122-190 .285 points and .102 goals
- 2016-17: 640 games, 91-117-208 .325 points and .142 goals
- 2017-18: 515 games, 43-105-148 .287 points and .083 goals
- 2018-19: 412 games, 54-59-113 .274 points and .131 goals
- 2019-20: 318 games, 55-62-117 .368 points and .173 goals
The veteran group is the hole where the money goes, but RNH, Klefbom, Larsson and others join this cluster next year. For years now the Oilers have cut off this arm of the roster. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle would be here but Edmonton has been shooting veterans out of a cannon since Ryan Smyth.
As a comparison, Calgary’s 27+ group includes Mark Giordano, Derek Ryan, Mikael Backlund, Travis Hamonic, TJ Brodie and David Rittich.
NEXT YEAR’S CLUSTERS
- 18-22: Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson
- 23-26: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones
- 27+: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Zack Kassian, Mikko Koskinen
That looks more balanced, and if the Oilers can resist dealing Nuge and Klefbom (I think Larsson is a candidate for trade), then this veteran group is going to be a big factor next year.
I think it goes even deeper than that. When we talk about the trade deadline, all options are 27+ (of course) and free agency is same. Taylor Hall, Chris Kreider, Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tyler Toffoli could all be targets this summer.
Trade targets might be veterans with a year left on their deals. Men like Brandon Saad, Travis Zajac and Tomas Tatar may be available now if the right offer is made.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Guests include Chris Meaney from The Athletic to talk Super Bowl, and the return of Jason Gregor to talk about his beloved Chiefs winning it all. He’ll also break down a classic win by the Oilers in Calgary on Saturday night. Best part of the show is your input, so send those clever words to text 10-1260 and twitter @Lowetide. See you on the radio!
Lupal called out Robidas Island on Instagram. But again this is about playing games with IR (an option referenced by multiple posters last night) not cash payments in secret.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/joffrey-lupul-calls-leafs-instagram-says-cheat/
This recap today looks like the dispute was about the Jets pushing him to progress beyond IR. Why would the Jets refuse to use Robidas Island and then go off the map with secret deals.
https://www.tsn.ca/trade-bait-winnipeg-jets-and-dustin-byfuglien-heading-toward-split-1.1437152
I have a made a spreadsheet of Oilers clusters which uses a very generalized theory about when different positions mature. The idea that goalies often take longest and forwards often mature faster as pros.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing
Edmonton is very well set up for this year and the following 6 or 7 years depending on who they can keep. But in 21-22 and 22-23 they will be on fire as leading cup contenders. The number of impact players who are entering their “pro”, “prime”, and “young vet” years will be at a high. The only place they may need help as Koskinen ages is in net where most of the goalies in their system may not be mature enough yet to handle a starting position or even backup a team to a cup.
I think this sheet give s a good visual of prime years in the yellow, orange and red highlights.
If I get some spare time, I may try to add in final contract years and grey out the numbers after that.
Joffrey Lupul? More to that story than meets the eye.
Robidas? A bunch of Leafs went down the same route, but that’s the route where the player gets paid by IR. Last night I mentioned other NHL employment. Post IR Pronger ended up with the league, Robidas with the Leafs staff. But secret cash is
nuts.
To me that’s a lot to pay for a career .5 PPG player that will be 29 next season and doesn’t have a bargain salary.
Fine player, not one to pursue that aggressively.
Just watch him play.
And then come back and tell me how good he is.
And the Oilers had to take James Neal and his contract to entice them to do it.
What’s your point?
– I think the difference is that all those players continued playing in the NHL, and were paid, and “made” whole by the buy-outs, retained salary, new salaries: they all got paid, no grievances
– Buff is different: he is legally entitled to $7.6 x 2. And I have the impression that he’s got other demons he’s fighting and certainly won’t get the chance to earn that money (all the other ones did). I figure he’s done int eh NHL.
– And Buff’s contact is an albatross to the Peg, who need to win now with their core.
– So yes, it’s “illegal” technically to circumvent the cap. Practically however, my proposed “terminate contract, and owner send $ as a thank-you in the background” makes sense in this scenario.
– Given its in the interest of all parties, that possibility certainly exists that indeed there was a quid pro quo for Buff’s “termination”
– Its just business, and winning. Buff is legally entitled to his $, and has a grievance. Doubt he wanted out so bad that he gives up $15.2MM. Anyway of course we won’t know, but i bet this is what happened: given the nature of sport and lack of financial disclosure, and aligned interests
* there were tweets a few years ago from i believe a Leaf player, who felt he was medically cleared to play, but they didn’t want him to show up for cap reasons: cheating happens all the time. But they shut him down pretty quick when he made those allegations
New for The Athletic: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction, with Kailer Yamamoto having an enormous impact.
https://theathletic.com/1576912/2020/02/04/lowetide-if-fast-is-the-new-big-the-oilers-are-trending-in-a-very-good-direction/
People try way to hard to win an argument with HH.
He posted that the trade was a win-win. Vancouver made a solid bet on JT Miller and Tampa couldn’t afford Miller, knew he was good and demanded a first rounder.
Miller has been terrific. He’s still young and Vancouver may win a division because of it.
Tampa hasn’t really suffered and turned this asset into a late first rounder in a really deep draft.
He also pointed out that it was unlikely a player drafted after 15 would score more than Miller in the next 3-5 years.
Posting the handful of players in the past 20 years who HAVE done it is a really bad response.
You’re essentially saying “I’d never move a first rounder ever” which is fair. Perhaps you are risk averse and that’s not a bad way to build a team.
So I can see saying “I personally wouldn’t make that trade” but saying the Canucks regret picking up a 60-80 point, 26 year old who will be a big part of their core for the next 5 years and has sped up their rebuild seems disingenuous.
Miller is probably pretty similar to RNH and I would suspect if the Oilers could add a second RNH, cost controlled, for the price of a late first they’d do it in a flash.
That would explain the lack of talk lol.
I think Holland would prefer to use Puljujarvi in lieu of a 1st round pick.
How then is he among the team leaders in things like CF%, FF%, xGF% and HDCF%? If he’s so “done” you’d think that would be reflected in his shot metrics.
Darnell Nurse turns 26 today
Actually 25. Nurse haters gonna hate.
oh snap, I guess the website I was looking at had already updated early!
I just wondering if lost in all this speculation that we haven’t overlooked an internal solution to creating 2 strong lines in the top 6…
RNH McDavid Kassian
Benson Drai Yamamoto
I know the proposed second line is young but it’s still getting the secondary defensive matchups. I know it would be tough to split up the red hot DRY line but if it cools down a little, maybe give McDavid a little vet help?
On the other hand, maybe take Hrudey’s advice to make RNH the best 3rd line C in the league?
Archibald McDavid Kassian
Haas Drai Yama
Benson RNH Neal
The 3rd line wouldn’t be fast but that wouldn’t hurt Benson…
Strome is still an RFA after this season.
A team traded for Milan Lucic last summer…….
Current 1st paring signings are well in excess of $6.5M.
Lets also not think in terms of stagnation and be future looking – over the course of a 7-8 year contract, where the cap is supposed to go up massively in a few years, this will be well under what top pairing guys sign for and, of course, the key, we are signing him, for term, for his entire prime – no decline years.
A buyout this spring has a cap hit for Neal for 6 years – ya, I want that savings but I think its too early for a buy out – buy outs are last resorts in my opinion and we aren’t there with this player yet. Although way overpaid, he’s a serviceable player for next season if he can’t be traded with some retained salary.
Was a touch of hyperbole, but trying to get into a woman’s locked vehicle can be seen as a threat to her safety and therefore assault. I think, I’m not a lawyer, but as assault is written it could be interpreted in such a way.
From googling Arizona’s legal definition of assault
“Simple assaults in Arizona are defined as knowingly or recklessly causing physical injury to another person; or knowingly touching another person with the intent to injure, insult or provoke; or intentionally causing another person to reasonably fear imminent bodily harm.”
I know people write it off as a drunk rich kid doing drunk rich kid shit, but as someone with a mother and sisters, I know they would be absolutely terrified by that situation.
No, that’s not what’s happening – they are agreeing to mutually terminate which would mean that Buff gives up the remaining compensation owned.
Sure, the team could pay him privately on the side, however, that would be against the league CBA and, if the league ever found out, there would be implications, large implications for the team.
I don’t’ think Buff is doing this to help the team – I think there are irreconcilable differences.
Why didn’t the Oil just do this with Pouliot, Gryba, Sekera, etc.? Because its not allowed.
The optimum move, if there is a good one out there, is a first line LWer for McDavid.
I think that’s a move that is best made in the off-season.
Fortunately we have Benson in the wings (so to speak), Neal, Nygard, Archie, and Gagner who can all play there if its not working with someone else.
Right now we need bang for our buck. No one offers more bang for so little buck than Ennis. 800k cap hit, 13-17-30, 30 yo, and from Edmonton, so a reasonable chance to sign him as an FA, if it works out. Ennis would be the 4th highest scoring forward on our team. Ahead of both Kassian and Neal.
Now he’s no long term solution to McDavid’s wing, but you can add him to the list of bandaid names above. What he does provide is secondary scoring, with enough brain and hand and feets to drive some of it. He can play some 2PP and produce. Fill disclosure.. He doesn’t PK.
But 800k is awfully cheap for a hometown boy. And the acquisition cost should be lower tier.
Bring. Me. Tyler. Ennis.
Yes, it’s the same trade. And there’s a small chance that it could work out like the JT Miller trade has (a ~50 point player becomes an ~80 point player).
Miller and Zucker’s paths and production have been remarkably similar. It’s difficult to argue though that Zucker would be the superior player at the time of the trade (assuming he were traded this deadline vs Miller last year).
I also don’t think that Miller’s production this year was the expected outcome. We can’t assume Zucker will likewise blossom into something he’s not currently. It could happen, but it’s not a given.
GMB3,
Didn’t he just underwear on moon her? Definitely a douchey move, I don’t know about assault.
The curious thing is why you think I’d be moving the goalposts. Do you think there’s zero logic behind the idea that he’s a borderline unmovable contract?
I don’t have a personal vendetta against James Neal. He’s just not value for his contract, and unfortunately the salary cap is a real issue for this team
No I’m not. The team has been looking for two outscoring lines for years and a passable bottom six. James Neal is scoring at below replacement levels at 5v5. He’s a drag on McDavids offence. Most his points have come on the PP. most of the game is played at 5v5.
The team would be far superior with a more effective 5v5 player in his role.
Those are the assets I’m willing to give up. Numerous teams can’t fit Zucker into their cap limit. The Oil would need to trade salary too.
What I’m not going to do is get into a bidding war for Jason Zucker. I like the player but he’s not without his warts. His passing is not at a first line level. I’m not paying a premium for that. A deferred 1st and a cheap young guaranteed 3rd pairing D is the best you’re going to get from me.
I know this is about Kreider.
But what’s Strome going to get as UFA (or deadline for that matter)?. Serious question, I don’t recall it being discussed.
19 goals in the NHL is good, the guy is on track for 25 goals that would be very good..
Summer of 21 is the time to either deal Neal with a sweetener to Seattle or cut bait and buy him out losing about $1.9 million cap space for the subsequent 4 years. We dodged a bullet and got some value out of him this season, maybe we can squeak one more year of solid PP production out of him. Would be best if Looch, Sekera and Neal were all off the books together in 3 years.
Are you comparing Neal to those 3 players?
If you were an NHL GM would you trade for James Neal? Without making the Oilers give up a sweetener? Or take back a bad contract?
Or do you just look at his boxscores, see 19 goals, and say “well, he must be good”?
Woogie63,
Have you ever checked to see how many points he has at even strength?
A point is point.
The team has been looking for secondary scoring for years, now you are moving the goalposts…
Interesting and NHL team not interested a 20 goal scorer.
But- super boring story line- kinda like the we need to trade Shultz, Petry, Eberle crew.
He is the 3 best goal scorer, the 5th highest point producer on a play-off team -enjoy the entertainment
Who is correct — nobody wants Neal because of that contract. His 5v5 play has been bad….with McDavid. If Holland can spin some magic and parlay Neal into a better buyout target, then that would be a solid outcome. Next best outcome: buying him out.
Genjutsu,
Sure. But then he wasn’t providing any veteran cover and hasn’t been the last couple years when they’ve been terrible. If he was attempting to stay competitive, he didn’t do a very good job. I don’t see how Oiler fans can rationalize the terrible contracts he signed with that logic. They would have been much more competitive if he was better at identifying talent.
I trade for a living and there is no way I take your credit risk amigo
and I thought we were talking about Zucker not JT Miller…jezuz you are something else
Yes it happens.
It’s more likely that a pick in the 20-30 range spends another year in junior and then a year or two in the AHL.
But, if you’re a betting man, we’ll see who the Oilers pick and compare how many NHL points he gets compared to JT Miller in the same time frame.
How much do you want to wager?
Do you own a moving company?
If you’re going to pick a year to be horrible this would be the year.
Top 4 pick guaranteed and the best chance at 1 2 and 3.
They also have 5 picks in the first three rounds . . . So far.
Point production peaks between 23-27 not the late 20’s early 30s
Zucker is a proven 40 something point player who had a career year in 2017-18, which just happened to be his contract year, and now back to the 40 something point player he is
The 19 goals he has scored have no value to the acquiring team. The goals he will score moving forward are the only ones they will care about. How many do you think he scores without McDavid? How many even strength goals will he score with his new team?
Barzal draft plus 2 years 85 points
Aho draft plus 1 49 points Zucker had 42 points in 81 games last season
Beauvillier draft plus 2 36 points as a very effective 3rd line centre Zucker had 42 points in 81 games last season
Boeser draft plus 2 56 points
Chabot draft plus 2 25 points on D
Nobody saw Bergeron coming is not an explanation as to why he put up 39 points in his Rookie year Zucker had 42 points in 81 games last season
Parise spent a year in the AHL and only scored 32 points in his first NHL season Zucker had 42 points in 81 games last season
Did I mention players can be really good in their draft plus 2 years
Smart GMs get a once 60 point player a few years ago who is 28 years old? And he would give up at least a 1st round pick for that plus a D prospect (is this D prospect also 28 years old? I know how much you love those prospects)
Yeesh.
Well, except it’s not like that at all.
Keep trying, you will get it one day.
“Pick between 20-30 means you are kicking the can down the road 3-5 years from now….
Except all of those times where that’s not the case…
But then that makes my trade proposal look not so good…”
Yikes.
Assault? What assault? He walked in front of her in his gitch. Kapanen broke team rules and had to deal with the consequences. He slept in for a noon practice for christsake.
O yes. Russian Roulette the game where you wait up to 5 years for somewhere between great and disappointing. Great analogy
We have a vague idea what his point around here is. Good to fill in in for the shy retiring fellow
I agree a lot of his points. Especially trading for a proven Top 6 with term.
IF Edm identifies Zucker or Kapanen as Top 6 targets, they may have to pony up the assets. The next 5 years are PRIME MCDAVID & DRAI years.
If Ken doesnt want to trade a 1st, he should at least aim higher in FA …
It’s all about exploiting market inefficiencies.
A proven 60 point player with upside is worth far more than a lottery ticket that MIGHT work out in 3-5 year.
Smart GMs find those guys.
Yikes…how many didn’t.
It’s like playing Russian Roulette when 13 of the 16 chambers have live rounds.
Blow your brains out if you like.
Its always great to revsiit drafts and pick the best guys. What about the other picks between 16 – 30
2003.
ERIC FEHR
MARK STUART
MARC ANTOINE-POULIOT
ANTHONY STEWART
JEFF TAMBELLINI
SHAWN BELLE
2015 (still time)
EVGENY SCHEVNILOV
JOEL ERICKSSON EK
NICK MERKLEY
JEREMY ROY
I think HH’s point is you can trade for Guranteed production today. The cost is possibly giving up a 1st rounder. Who could turn out beetter than the player acquired. But also may never play in the NHL.
Neal has 19 goals that might be valued by a few clubs, he has a bit of reputation as a play-off performer that might be valued as well.
You did say 3-5 years… and then literally admitted 3 players spent less than 3 – 5 years before they could contribute.
Yikes.
The thing is…you have to make it attractive to the other team.
Don’t think moving the pick back another year and offering only marginal D prospects would get it done.
Numerous teams would beat that deal.