Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had perhaps his best game of the season, delivering across all 200-feet of NHL canvas in a thrilling display of two-way hockey. He won’t get the attention he deserves, but here, at this blog, we want to take a moment to acknowledge greatness on a Saturday night in February. Nuge was outstanding.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Observations: A Connor McDavid scare, Leon Draisaitl’s back, boosting the top line and helping Zack Kassian
- New Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a ‘long road’ to the NHL, Tyler Benson’s Oilers debut holds extra meaning
- Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
- Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 55 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 21-29-5, 47 points; goal differential -29
- Oilers in 2016-17: 29-18-8, 66 points; goal differential +11
- Oilers in 2017-18: 23-28-4, 50 points; goal differential -30
- Oilers in 2018-19: 24-26-5, 53 points; goal differential -20
- Oilers in 2019-20: 29-20-6, 64 points; goal differential +3
Last night was a terrific effort by the Oilers, in all honesty I thought the club was done 38 minutes into the game. Hockey is such a strange game, absolute random luck cut the deficit in half and gave the home team life. It was a mausoleum before the Chiasson goal, a raucous joint after the goal. Big win.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Current 10 games: 3-2-0
Oilers have had one poor 10-game segment so far, and this 10-game set feels like a tight one.
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -15
- Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in February 2018: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in February 2019: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2020: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential +1
February is a damned tough month based on these four-game runs to begin the proceedings over five years. Man, there’s no joy in these numbers. This year’s team is the only one to have two wins after four games.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 2-2-0, four points in four games
The Oilers have a busy schedule this month, so it’s a combination of quality of opponent and how many games are btb or third in four nights. After the massive run coming out of the AS break (two against Calgary with a game against St. Louis in between) this week represented a struggle. The win Saturday stops a two-game losing streak and sets up the road trip in a more positive light.
OILERS 2019-20
Dave Tippett coached his ass off last night, catch the time on ice for some of these lines. Alex Chiasson had a brilliant early chance and then later scored the biggest goal of the game. All numbers five on five and via NST.
LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 13:13, going 20-8 Corsi, 12-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 5-2 HDSC.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a splendid evening, including a grand back check that squashed what could have been the winning goal, and two passes to Draisaitl that led to goals. Finished 0-1-1 five on five, with two shots and two HDSC, three giveaways and two takeaways. His stellar back check on Arvidsson was all-world and won’t get the attention it deserves. Outstanding work. Leon Draisaitl received much of the attention post-game and with good reason. He scored a goal, had four shots, three HDSC, drew a penalty and won 10 of 18 in the dot. His second goal was the winner. Kailer Yamamoto continued to be a catalyst for this trio, although it was a slow start for the line. He finished with an assist, three shots, one HDSC and a takeaway.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 9:25, going 8-8 Corsi, 5-6 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira played a physical game, helping to set the tone early with a hit against Nick Bonino. He had one shot, which stood as Edmonton’s best scoring chance for some time. Had a takeaway. Riley Sheahan had a shot, a takeaway and won seven of nine (nice). He was effective in four PK minutes. Josh Archibald had three shots, hit like a truck and transported well. I like what he brings.
LINE 3 Sam Gagner-Connor McDavid-Alex Chiasson played 8:55, going 7-15 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-7 HDSC. That might be the worst line from a line that contains 97 in his NHL career.
Sam Gagner had two shots, took a penalty and had two giveaways. I understand why Tippett moved him up, but suspect one of the reasons Samwise was succeeding on a depth line had to do with quality of opponent. Connor McDavid had a wild night: Power-play assist, two penalties, two giveaways, won four of eight in the dot. He hurt his knee on an innocent looking play and that became central to the game story (as it should). Postgame Tippett said it was not expected to be a serious issue. McDavid was creating chances for Chiasson and (later) Leon. Alex Chiasson missed a yawning cage early in the game, and was credited with the goal that got things going late in the second period. He didn’t have any crooked numbers of note at five on five. This line should end.
LINE 4 Tyler Benson-Gaetan Haas-Zack Kassian played 4:28, going 3-0 Corsi, 2-0 shots.
Tyler Benson had an early giveaway, which is like running a stop sign for a player in his second game. Limited minutes after. Gaetan Haas won four of seven in the dot. Zack Kassian was not a factor. It’s easy to bury these guys but the bottom line is Tippett coached to win, to end the losing streak, to find two points on a night when the team had a chance to get closer to the light up above. I don’t blame him. Tippett said post-game he got caught chasing the win and that Kassian will get more minutes next game.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:51, going 19-24 Corsi, 11-10 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-7 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse had three shots, a giveaway, takeaway, penalty and four blocked shots. The penalty came when he got beaten by Matt Duchene. Ethan Bear had one shot, four giveaways and two takeaways. The young man passed the puck well, one of the parts of his game Edmonton needs badly. He is so calm, and can move that puck so well, it gives the team a completely different look when he’s on the ice.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 13:51, going 14-11 Corsi, 8-6 shots, no goals and 5-1 HDSC. This was a solid showing by the pair, owing much to the nine minutes spent with the Draisaitl line.
Oscar Klefbom had five shots, one HDSC and showed good speed in recovery. He is such a valuable player. Adam Larsson played a physical game and was solid in 3:40 on the PK.
PAIRING THREE Caleb Jones and Matt Benning played 9:04, going 9-5 Corsi, 6-3 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.
Caleb Jones had two giveaways and got boxed out on the Smith goal, but that was more an effective pick than a rookie mistake. He’s learning the NHL game and I believe he’ll have a quality career. His passing is coming along, the game is starting to slow down for him. Leave him in the lineup! Matt Benning had three shots, created a rebound on one of them. He was there for Bonino’s goal but couldn’t interrupt the tip.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 27 of 29, .931. He delivered on all easy and mid-range shots, allowing two of nine HDSC to get by him. I thought he was excellent, highlighted by a sequence in the middle of the second period where Duchene and then Josi had 10-bell chances. Tippett said after the game that Smith is ‘dialed in’ and that’s a good description.
CONNOR MCDAVID
McDavid was injured last night on a play that landed him in the end boards. Ryan Rishaug from TSN asked him about it in the post-game avail and Tippett said it was “not his hurt knee” and that he had a “little bump on his knee” so we’ll wait for more information. He was brilliant as always during game action.
This is what I recall as well. There was a lot of market place cap-creep going on at the time – everyone expected $7m+ to become the new norm but keeping it below $7m was still very doable.
The Kuznetzov contract made $7m+ more probable but it was the Drai contract that made it ($7m+ the new normal).
I would add, however, that the Tavares contract made the $10m+ contracts the new normal and made Drai’s contract ‘normal’ from $7m+ to $8m+ (i.e. Drai was no longer the possible outlier there). Chia, via Drai, may have moved the chains but Dubas/Tavares moved the whole damn stadium.
But I/we did that yesterday no?
You can look at the time period where Kassian and McDavid have been linemates:
Jan. 1st 2019 to present:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian 717min 53.2%GF
Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx 269min 42.1%GF
xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian 318min 50.0%GF
xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx 304min 40.6%GF
Or you can look at the full numbers since the beginning of the 2017-18 season:
2017-18 to present:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian 727min 54.2%GF
Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx 1113min 53.9%GF
xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian 380min 50.0%GF
xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx 1392min 52.1%GF
The first set shows that in the past 13 months (this timeframe accounts for 1061 of 1137 minutes McDavid and Kassian have played together in the 3 seasons) McDavid-Kassian (no Draisaitl) have performed far better than Draisaitl-McDavid (no Kassian). Also far better than McDavid without either winger.
In this sample Kassian deserved credit, no? I mean, he looks like the driver by the numbers over a 90+ game sample. I’m not trying to claim he actually is but I don’t know how one could deny that he looks like a full and important contributor here.
In the larger (2017-present) sample Kassian looks like a slight drag on McDavid. I agree with that, but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.
Why? If you look at xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian in both sets they’re at 50%GF, identical (there were also only 62 xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian minutes pre-2019, so I’d argue basically meaningless). The Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian results are also comparable (1%GF higher in the large sample).
Where’s the difference? Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx and xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx, which both drop ~10% in the Jan2019-present sample compared to the 2017-present sample. McDavid has not been the same player (in terms of driving on ice results) as he was in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Including Oct 2017-Jan2019 skews the WOWY because you’re adding a period where McDavid was 57%GF without Kassian to one where he was 41%GF without Kassian (since Jan2019). (also 56%GF without Draisaitl or Kassian to 41%)
McDavid alone and Draisaitl-McDavid have fallen off a cliff in the past 13 months. It’s only while Kassian has been on the ice that McDavid’s been in the ball park of his previous performance. I think Kassian deserves considerable credit considering what’s happened when he’s not on the ice. And since he’s been a McDavid winger there’s zero evidence (that I can find) that Draisaitl’s been driving the results.
I have an issue with your Jan 1 cut off for the sample.
I understand why you did it, but it significantly alters the results for a not good enough reason imo.
We won’t agree on this, and that’s ok.
Not much I can do if you won’t agree.
I think adding a sample (pre-Jan 1, 2019) where McDavid’s GF% without Kassian is 57% to one where it was 41% (irrespective of Draisaitl) is problematic.
Will you acknowledge that Kassian appears to have been a (considerable) positive influence on McDavid’s results since Jan 2019?
Probably chauvinism rather.
They do kinda look like alien babies and used to do bad things to my hockey team so . . .
Chauvinism is fair.
This is an excellent post.
Thanks brother. Coming from you that’s a nice compliment 🙂
If you post that after every game I promise to read it.
All of those topics would be new and fresh.
Excitedly awaiting your posts.
Speaking to his future NHL prospects… ” so you’re saying there’s a chance?”
I think you need to pull Drai out of the Kassian sample if you’re going to give Kassian a lot of the credit there.
You’re not wrong to ask.
Ah yes but Kuznetzov had a 2 year ELC followed by a 2 year RFA bridge deal so that wasn’t exactly the same comparison. If anything, that lends more weight to the notion that Drai was given a drastic raise.
If you tack that $3M bridge for 2 years to the first 6 years of the 8 year RFA-UFA deal, that would have driven down the AAV to about $7.5M AAV.
Again, that’s why a lot of us were saying an $8.5M AAV was $1M too much when given the historical comparatives. Each one of the comparables I used signed their second deal after their ELC deals for 6+ years without going through a bridge.
It’s a total credit that Leon used the contract as the starting point and motivation to prove himself worthy of that contract instead of the endpoint and coasting through this contract knowing he’s set for life no matter what else he does from now on.
Also, one small point of contention. McDavid took his $1M discount to help the TEAM. It was so the Oilers could afford to sign better players to surround him. It was never meant explicitly to directly give Leon an extra $1M raise.
If that was the case, Leon owes McDavid free suppers anytime they go out for the rest of their lives. Even going to the priciest restaurants around the league, there’s no way McDavid eats $8 million in food.
Your comments about EK are valid, and were in my mind when I used the qualifier “at least in part”. I remember thinking that summer that the EK contract should set the upper limit on Leon’s contract; I was hopeful he would sign for about $7.25.
Exactly. Mostly 2020-21 and 2021-22, but it could even affect the trade deadline.
I wonder about a Neal buyout too. Does ~$4M buy you a better McDavid winger than Neal? Maybe not in terms of goals, but most likely yes in terms of even strength scoring/outscoring (though I’m curious to see if Neal-McDavid’s point scoring and on ice results can catch up to their underlying shot and scoring chance numbers, which are very good).
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 9th, 2020; after 40
28CF-37CA
14FF-18FA
0GF-4GA
Top F: Currie (0.48 GS)
5 shot att, 0 shot asst
12CF-8CA
5FF-3FA
0GF-0GA
Top D: Bouchard (0.16 GS)
2 shot att, 3 shot asst
11CF-13CA
6FF-4FA
0GF-0GA
…
Manning 0-3 GF-GA on the night so sar, last I checked his season numbers were 3-13, meaning together that’s 18.75 GF%.
ARI and MTL – Go Habs!
NSH and VAN – Go two point game, preferably with NSH winning – Oilers lead division vis-a-vis points percentage
CGY and SJS – A Sharks win would make me smile very large.
lmfao holy shit fellas Manning might be a third pairing guy down here
Goal share must be adjusted for FO ZS and Bench change with/ without pocession.
To reflect expected entry and Corsi For and against from forwards.
It is at this pt fwds penetration and open SH targeting is balanced with Dmen and goalies influenceof corsi faced by preventing penetration and making Corsi non scoreable: (blocks, forced misses, Closed shots, by Dmen) and (Open shot saves by goalies)
Thanks for the fact based contextual point!
Had not considered the playoff aspect!
Awesome!
Posters are allowed to converse with HH and, no, are not required to use what you consider the HH reply button.
Kassian 1.95M -> 3.2M is +1.25M, 4yr.
I stated he likely gets 1/3 to 1/2 of Mcdavids ev min this yr.
Like that they are enticing Archibald for resign with Mcdavid minutes.
Nurse 3.2M -> 5.6M is + 2.4M, 2 YR. UFA, decision made!
1.25 + 2.4 = 3.65M – 3.125M (Gagner) = +.5M next yr.
+.5M – (.225 Granlund burry + .300 gryba buyout) = -.025M
That is a wash.
1.175M available from the Manning Bury to direct to our current best Shot success density reduction Dman Benning
(each def side is diffrent)
Yup, strength of opponent is something, however, with the league being full parity, there isn’t that much to choose between good and not so good teams (DET excepted) – this can be seen by you making predictions all year long on the future standings based off of strength of schedule and being consistently wrong.
You do realize that all year long you’ve posted about points percentage and goal differential being primary determiners of future standings but now you choose to ignore the because they favor the Oilers?
Why are you comparing a soon to be 22 year old player, a 2016 top 10 overall draft pick in his 3rd year pro to a 20 year old rookie pro 2nd rounder?
Also, yes, Juolevi is finally starting to spike in his development.
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 9th, 2020; first run (11/7)
Benson-Malone-Currie
Gambardella-Esposito-Hebig
Stukel-McLeod-Maksimov
Koules-Peluso
Lowe-Bouchard
Manning-Persson
Samorukov/Kulevich-Day
…
after 20
11CF-21CA
6FF-10FA
0GF-1GA
Top F: Hebig (0.06 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 0 shot assists
4CF-7CA
3FF-5GA
0GF-1GA
Top D: Bouchard (0.11 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
5CF-6CA
3FF-1FA
0GF-0GA
BoP, your joke was rude and a clear shot at OP. I hope you have enough future fulfillment and satisfaction in your life so that you’re not so concerned with OP.
The Nurse contract is excellent in my opinion. Nurse has had prime ice time on the top pairing and plenty of PP time over the last couple years with injuries and the state of our D corp. Lots of people talking about how he was going to get paid for those plausibly career years in points.
Now he has 2 years to prove he really is that dominant physical defensemen. Just like he had the chance to on his last contract.
We now run the risk of losing him for nothing in 2 years but:
– He won’t have those number 1 D man usage to negotiate with
– We will know precisely what kind of D man he will be (the picture is getting clearer)
– With Bouchard, Broberg and Sammy 2 years more experienced (plus Bear) the D Corp will be more competitive
– We should be (better be) a contending team and should be a more attractive signing spot
LT the rug is soaked again
An argument could be made that the salary scale for players of Leon’s calibre was, at least in part, reset about 6 weeks before Leon’s signing when Evgeny Kuznetsov got 8 x $7.8 million. In his contract year EK had 19 goals and 40 assists in 82 games, along with 5g and 5a in 13 playoff games. That same year Leon had 29g and 48a in 82 games along with 6g and 10a in 13 playoff games.
jp,
Win-next year?
It does mean he can take on more AAV if he’s planning on trading for a player with term at the deadline.
I wonder if the Nurse deal (saving $1M-$1.5M for the next two years relative to a long term pact) means Holland has committed to win-now mode?
Charming.
You didn’t answer the question. What would you have done if Draisaitl refused to sign for long term for less?
The way I see it you could have bridged him for less, or enticed him to sign long term. Chia got him to sign for 8 years. Are you arguing that was a mistake?
The rest of your post is just a rant about Chia. Hell, everybody knows he was a bad GM. But I guess only some of us are objective enough to give him credit for his occassional good moves.
Did I offend you when I said you really didn’t understand the game?
This is my last post in response because you obviously don’t understand simple concepts or history.
Chiarelli was a horrible GM He did many things badly and one of those things was overpaying on contracts and giving out too many NMC or NTC clauses.
If Drai wanted $8.5M, I would have done what every GM in every sport has done in the decades of sports management. I would have let Leon sit.
Just like Dubas sat Marner later in the year. The GM has most of the leverage in this negotiation and they’ve used it over and over and over. It’s not a new tactic…
***
Think about this in reverse. The Oilers and Draisaitl SETTLED on $8.5M AAV when historical comparables were ~$6.5M with inflation. What was the Oilers initial offer? $7M? $7.5M? What was Leon’s? $9M? None of those numbers make any sense unless you’re an idiot bidding against yourself like Chia.
And yet here we are…
v4ance,
I remember too though that $7.5M was considered the upper limit for the contract… because of 8 yrs term and Ekblad. There were a lot of people adamant that it shouldn’t be more than 6.5M, but everyone also knew that $7.5M wasn’t outside the range of possibilities.
Then the story came out that Connor had taken a $1M discount to give to Drai explaining the gap. Some scouting there by McDeity, btw.
New for The Athletic Oilers reportedly finalizing short-term deal for Darnell Nurse to free up cap space for summer
https://theathletic.com/1596072/2020/02/10/oilers-reportedly-finalizing-short-term-deal-for-darnell-nurse-to-free-up-cap-space-for-summer/
Nurse wants to get paid based on his TOI.
I think that’s fair.
I think it is a credit to him that he took the discount. I wonder what future number the handshake took place on? Is he going to get paid for missed salary? Regardless, I think we will see other players and agents accede to these terms/salary for the promise of a bigger payday when the cap jumps. Could be a helluva UFA crop that summer.
There’s a lot of fear on HF Oil that Nurse will hold the hammer and wield it on the next contract. The Oil are going to have a 12 month head start on that contract and will know exactly where they stand, with the ability to trade Nurse if an agreement can’t be made.
And the Nurse camp knows that the GM is motivated to re-sign him. Everyone knows what he means to the room and the core. And one of the reasons he plays so much with 97 is because he is really the nuclear deterrent for McDavid out there. Just like I’m sure he’s the protection when they are out and about town.
Nurse and Holly getting together on this is team-building shit. In fact, this recent spate of signings seems well-timed… removing worries from players’ minds (and their families’ minds) while entering the final stretch drive.
I’m liking New Holland.
Interesting comparison, and obviously a concerning comparable. No question that if this really is the cliff for Larsson it’s better to cut bait ASAP. Really the only reason for hope with Larsson is that his underlying numbers remain strong.
As for Smid, I’m not sure there was much foreshadowing (at least statistically) that predicted his demise. Larsson, is also the better player to start (before the cliff, if that’s what this is).
Smid was actually traded at age 27 and played his last NHL game less than a month after his 30th birthday (he just turned 34 this month!).
The Oilers were atrocious when Smid was part of the team but he was basically even or positive relative to team in corsi, shots and goals for/against at ages 23, 24, 25 and 26. Age 27 he played 17 games for the Oilers before the trade where his results were bad. Then they remained not NHL quality after arriving in Calgary (both raw and relative to team).
The only warning was 17 poor games for the Oilers in Oct/Nov 2013, which is neither a big enough or bad enough sample to say a lot IMO. He sure did fall off a cliff around then though.
Larsson until the last 2 years has generally had positive corsi, shot and goal numbers relative to team (while also playing on better teams than Smid).
Looking just at his last 4 seasons with the Oilers, ages 23, 24, 25 and 26:
His corsi for % rel: 0.05, -0.19, 2.85, -2.41
His shots for % rel: 1.03, -0.09, 1.70, -1.22
His goals for % rel: 3.73, 4.84, -13.11, -13.46
His DFF%rel All:— 0.70, 2.20, 1.30, 0.20
His TOI vs elites:— 35.0, 35.3, 35.3, 34.6
His GF% has tanked in the last 2 seasons but there’s barely been any change in any of the underlying numbers. It’s weird. Maybe he has reached the cliff, but I’m holding out hope this is just some unlucky blip.
Smid’s demise was primarily due to injuries to his back.
You should stop posting because everything you say is flat out wrong.
After the ELC, the contract comparables were for Leon were:
John Tavares 6 years $5.5M AAV
Taylor Hall 6 years $6M AAV
Nathan MacKinnon: 6 years $6.3M AAV
Sasha Barkov : 6 years $5.9M AAV
Sean Monahan 7 years $6.375M AAV
Johnny Gaudreau 6 years $6.75 M AAV
—>>>Leon Draisaitl 8 years $8.5M AAV<<<– Spot the outlier?
Aaron Ekbad 8 years $7.5M AAV
William Nylander 5 years $6.9M AAV
Nikolai Ehlers 6 years $6M AAV
The talk leading up to the offseason was that Leon would get $6.5M AAV due to inflation or maybe a bump to $6.75M AAV because of his playoff heroics. The second contract post ELC traditionally was when the team still had a lot of leverage due to arbitration and they used that hammer effectively to keep the inflation down even for the star players.
Oilers management was tight lipped about McDavid's pending extension but when he came in at $12.5M AAV, many of us rejoiced because the majority believed we'd get McDavid and Draisaitl signed for around $19M for the pair. Everyone's jaw dropped here and around the league when Draisaitl's $8.5M AAV was announced because it was a drastic raise compared to previous second contracts.
With one stroke, Chiarelli reset the AAV for the second contract . Years and years of GMs had successfully held the line and kept the rise of the post ELC contract manageable and all it took was one idiot to blow it up. Chiarelli literally screwed up the salary cap structure for the entire league. That's not what I call a smart move.
It was the same for the Hall for Larsson trade. That one transaction chilled the trade market for defencemen for 10 months until the next offseason because every GM holding a Top 4 D-man was asking for the same return Jersey got: a top 3 young forward. That was another Chiarelli overpay that temporarily reset the market and hurt the rest of the league. GMs came to their senses next year but in 2016-17, very few high profile D moved via trade.
The one rare deal that Chiarelli did correctly was for Klefbom; signing him to a 7 year $4.167M AAV.
Other than that Chiarelli was an oasis of suffering in a dessert of pain. We don't even need to discuss #16 & 33
McDavid reset the market.
Draisaitl was NOT going to sign for less than $8.5 million He signed for 2/3rds of what McDavid got. That was reasonable.
And if one looks at the percentage of the cap for all comparable centres for the full 8 years after the ELC for the last decade, Draisaitl’s contract is basically right on the mark.
I posted these numbers at the time.
If a guy in his pajamas in his basement can do this, Leon’s agent certainly could.
It might not cost the moon but think Stevie Y would hold out for a bit more in the quality of the assets. He’s a grinder too. We’d also need to move a bit more salary.
That’s what I’d say too. I’ve been rootin for him but he has plateaued when he needs to climb the hill in front of him.
Yeah it’s too bad he hasn’t been able to do just a little more, so far at least. You can definitely see why Holland gave him a shot though.
Looks like this guy is draft eligible and fits the description.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/522535/jaroslav-pouzar
But he doesn’t look like someone who’s likely to get drafted.
Yeah, don’t think anyone has him ranked. But… name.
For sure. But I hope Holland don’t spend a pick for nostalgia!
You worried me a bit with this when you first posted but there’s zero chance Nuge and Draisaitl remain together if McDavid misses time. So even if he were injured the called up player could as easily be a winger as a centre.
A more likely guess is Haas coming out of the lineup. He’s 20-1-1-2 since mid-December and has played less than 10 minutes in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
So far this season Calgary is:
1-1-1 against LAK
0-2-0 against SJS
1-0-0 against ANA
1-1-0 against CHI
For a total of
3-4-1
I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here.
When is Gio coming back again?
For those of a superstitious frame of mind.
Games show here during the middle of the day. For both games against Nashville I’ve had a grandson staying over (different ones). Both of them came in and watched only part of the game. When each came in, Preds had two goals. Within a minute of their respective arrivals in the room, Oilers started rolling and an entertaining game ensued. Both Grandsons were pretty impressed by the Oil.
I’ve got one more grandson not too far away, the rest are about 1000 miles. Lucky there’s only one more Pred’s game in regular season. I’ll do what I can to get him here 🙂
Getting Athanasiou and Glendening from DET makes some sense as it addresses speed and both LW and C. Both guys are under control next year although the LW is RFA. Should not cost the moon to do this deal with JP plus other assets like Khaira and a young dman thrown in.
+3 goal differential is hardly solid,…it can vaporize in one poor performance.
The Oilers have a much tougher schedule for the rest of the month with a road trip that includes TB, FLA, CAR and then return home to face the Bruins.
Calgary’s next 5 games are against SJS, LAK, ANA, CHI, ANA.
6 points in his last 10 games.
Olli Juolevi has 8 points in his last 10 games and he’s a defensemen.
Is he “spiking” too?
No he is a real jewel of a fifth overall draft pick who is on his second Ahl season and a full year plus older than McLeod who was picked 40th overall.
no, he’s a non-rookie BUST
Scoring rates much higher over the last 4-5 games – “starting to spike”, another way of saying, producing more now than earlier – an important way of looking at development of a 20 year old rookie pro – of course, having nothing to do with season long totals but looking at splits as a sign of development.
Who shouldn’t ever change?
Aren’t the flames like -16 on goal differential?
Of note, the Oilers have the top points percentage in the Pacific and a solid positive goal differential – given how determinative we’ve been told those two numbers are……..
Never change OP.
McLeod is currently 231st in AHL scoring tied with Alex Petrovic.
He’s 28th in rookie scoring despite playing more games than many ahead of him
That is hardly a “spike”.
The Nurse deal provides a solid $1M of extra cap space this off-season over what was anticipated.
The premise is for the two sides to sign a long term extension, maybe as early as next offseason, which will kick in for the 2022/23 season when the cap is projected to start to increase materially with the new US TV deal, but this helps the team’s ability to improve this coming off-season.
From all accounts Nurse wants to sign long term – Holland takes on some risk with the UFA expiry deal but the deal provides shorter term cap flexibility which should make most fans happy I would think.
I wouldn’t either, thankfully Bergevin sounds like he’s holding out for higher assets than the value he’s trading.
#famous
I also wouldn’t be surprised if rat bastard Marleau ends up here either.
But I do think Holland is most likely trying to find someone like Coleman, Devin Shore, Luke Glendening who have a year to go on their contracts, and don’t have a hefty trade or salary price tag.
Or an easy guy to re-sign. You know, like… ENNIS!
The Flames have a very favourable schedule for the rest of February.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leading the Pacific on March 1.
WPG is also almost out from under the Byfuglien mess and will be able to add a couple of D at the deadline.
At least one team in the Pacific is going to fall back.
Nothing is a lock.
Aren’t you just our little ray of sunshine.
McLeod’s offence is starting to spike at the AHL level.
Doesn’t project to be a legit top 6 NHL guy but this is what one wants to see in the 2nd half of his rookie pro season
jp,
great post