Getting Ready for Summer Business

Ken Holland is signing contracts at a rapid clip lately, getting Caleb Jones, Zack Kassian and now Darnell Nurse sewn up for the future. The details of the Nurse contract are unique in my opinion, I wrote about it for The Athletic this morning.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers reportedly finalizing short-term deal for Darnell Nurse to free up cap space for summer
  • New Lowetide:  The Oilers urgently need first-shot scorers, so expect a flood of additions this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Observations: A Connor McDavid scare, Leon Draisaitl’s back, boosting the top line and helping Zack Kassian
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a ‘long road’ to the NHL, Tyler Benson’s Oilers debut holds extra meaning
  • Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard

PROJECTED 2020-21 ROSTER

I’ve made a few moves, dealing Adam Larsson, Jesse Puljuarvi, buying out James Neal. Asterisks are estimated numbers for free agents and I’ve included the reported number for Nurse. Your mileage may vary on contracts (Bear’s number could be wildly wrong) and I have the cap at $83.5 million.

Holes remain, the right side of the defense is very young and the goalies are very old. Part of the reason I chose Mike Smith was to enrage you. I like the top two lines and the No. 3 center, and the left side of the defense should be fine. I kept Kris Russell as a swing man and because I think Larsson has more trade value.

THE 2020 DRAFT

I am preparing the next installment of draft coverage, it’ll be published next Tuesday (a week from tomorrow) as we enter into a busy period of games. It’s been a month since the last list.

Since I’m well into the piece, and can’t share it today (it is unready), thought I might share a few items. The top 10 has some changes but no new names have moved up, just a shuffle of the top group.

Tim Stuetzle and Jamie Drysdale were the big movers up the top 10, and there are three new members of the top 20 (Jack Quinn, Braden Schneider, Jake Sanderson).

The highest new addition (my list will grow from 32 to 62) is Seth Jarvis. Stay tuned!

THE EXTRA MONEY

In signing Nurse to this new deal, Ken Holland freed up (by my estimate) about $1 million in cap room this and next year. That’s a significant amount. How will Ken Holland use it? I’ve given my opinion above, acquiring a winger with a year left isn’t ideal but free agency is going to be spendy and a trade of assets (especially on defense) might be a better way. I’m looking forward to reading your ideas in the comments section.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the week, TSN1260. Guests include Ben Gretch from CBS Sports who will give the latest on the Expos-Rays ‘shared team’ idea that appears to be closer to a reality. Jason Gregor will pop by with opinion on Darnell Nurse, the big Saturday win over Nashville. We’re also casting about for an XFL guest, just in case you want some crazy. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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302 Responses to "Getting Ready for Summer Business"

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  1. Brantford Boy says:

    I like Tatar and hate to bring up the Hall trade, but I think I see where this is going… I agree Larsson has more trade value but I’d rather see Kris dealt…

    I’m glad Nurse is hanging around… well, for at least 2 more years (or is he?)…

  2. speeds says:

    LT: What is your take on the idea that it is hard to champion the cap savings from a Nurse bridge when it could be argued the management group didn’t really hold the line on Kassian?

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 17
    COL 16
    DAL 12

    As if
    EDM 9
    VAN 9
    VGP 7

    Wildcard
    CGY 6
    WPG 6

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 5
    ARI 4
    MIN 3
    CHI 3
    ANA -3
    SJS -3
    LAK -14

    WPG wins 3 games in 4 nights moves back up the standings. COL does same (4 wins in a row now) and threatens first in the conference.

    Relevant games tonight:

    ARI (+120) at MTL (-140) – Kovy seems to have given MTL new life and ARI is spinning their wheels.

    NSH (-115) at VAN (-105) – surprised that VAN is a slight dog here. I think they have some value.

    CGY (-115) at SJS (-105) – I like SJS at this price if they forecheck CGY like they did EDM as CGY’s Dcorps without Gio should be beatable.

  4. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Based on the logic of the Nurse deal, would a bridge for Bear also make sense? Give the team more room to add in the next 2 years.

  5. npanciroli says:

    I was hoping for Morrissey numbers tbh. I get the reasoning behind getting as much cap as possible for the next two years to fix the wings though.

    One hopes this is a Brayden Point situation were he signs long term for a reasonable amount in the future. I’m not expecting it to play out that way.

    I think keeping Russell and trading Larsson is the right play, especially after WG’s analysis. I bet Larsson holds more value in the league too with some GMs.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Atlantic
    BOS 23
    TBY 20
    FLA 10

    Metropolitan
    WSH 22
    PIT 19
    NYI 15

    Wildcard
    CBJ 13
    CAR 12

    Out of playoffs
    PHI 12
    TOR 10
    NYR 4
    MTL 4
    BUF 0
    NJD -4
    OTT -8
    DET -25

    Relevant games tonight:

    FLA (+135) at PHI (-135) – Line looks right. PHI is good at home and FLA can’t rely on Bob. TOR might back into 3rd in the Atlantic at this rate.

    NYI (+150) at WSH (-170) – After getting spanked by PHI at home I’d expect WSH to be much better tonight.

    TBY (-140) at CBJ (+120) – Hottest team in hockey vs Jack Adams and George Vezina. Might put a unit on Jack and George.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think we’ll see a bridge with Bear, in the $2.25M – $2.5M range. Could be way off on that.

    I think the org and Darnell both see him in the long term plans and will look to perhaps extend as early as next summer – they will have more information on Jones, Lagesson, Sammy and Broberg on the left side and even Bouch, Berglund and Kemp on the right side. Shit, if they wait until close to the expiry of the new deal, although they comes with risk, they’ll have a ton of info on those youngsters.

    This short term deal adds a solid $1M or so of cap space for this coming off season (over what was the anticipated cap cost) and, gives time to evaluate youngster progression over its term – of a couple of those kids pop, this could turn out a genius bet by Holland.

    Time will tell.

    What I do know is that it’s done and we don’t need to worry about it over the summer, nor does Darnell who will be in camp for day 1.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Slepy is on fire right now in the KHL (and looks to have had a great vacation in the UAE).

    He seems very happy with his kid back home – don’t see him looking to come back but would love to sign him for $925K and bring him back.

  9. Litke 94 says:

    “Part of the reason I chose Mike Smith was to enrage you.”

    I don’t know if it’s the lack of sleep, but holy sh** this made me laugh.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m sure Smith starts tomorrow which makes sense.

    Sounds like Neal may be back and I’d be in favour of going back to Neal/McDavid/Kass even though Neal hasn’t really fit there and they line was just “OK” – the two big bodies with Connor might be what is needed for some ozone board tenacity.

    Cave is pure meh and I’d rather see Haas but he’s not used to the NHL grind and could use a break perhaps.

  11. Greg says:

    “The details of the Nurse trade…” Whoa there LT. That’s a story for 2 years from now.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Spector, McDavid expected to be a full participant in practice this morning and has zero effects from the collision. He’s fine.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Mike Smith: LOL!

    – Both Russell and Larsson’s contract expire next year, but Kris’ contract only cost $1.5MM

    – That RHD: Benning, Bear, Bouchard is a recipe for disaster IMO: rookie regression, injury, etc.

    – Amongst playoff teams, our GA is almost the worst already.

    – Anyway, lets see: suspect Larsson will be beast-mode like in last playoffs.

    – The structure of contracts on D always made sense to me: Benning, Kris, Larrsson all expiring while the kids emerge, and are tradable, or just fall off, or still have control (Nurse)

    – We have strong D pipeline: with lots of options, and not reliant on just one to emerge

  14. who says:

    Looks like you’ve traded JP and Larrson for Tatar. Not sure why Montreal would want Larrson when they already have Weber, Petry and 3 young righty dmen.
    Like the idea of bringing Slepeshev back. Never really thought he was given a chance by Tmac.

  15. buck yoakam says:

    How about JP straight up for kovalchuk…if they are looking for a second then pull the trigger…could see the Habs all over that

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Part of the reason I chose Mike Smith was to enrage you.

    Trollolololololol!

  17. npanciroli says:

    I’m ok with the RHD as long as we re-sign Persson. I actually think Persson is already better than Larsson. Especially after WG’s GF analysis on Larsson.

    Bear, Benning, Persson, Bouchard then Russell and Jones in a pinch should be good.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m looking forward to reading your ideas in the comments section.

    Trollolololololol!

  19. rickithebear says:

    I prefer an elite open shot scorer ( high shotting%)
    To a volume scorer (low shooting%)
    Especiallly if they are tasked with a extreme negative expected goal dif.
    (xGD) (07-08 [12yr old] Cummulative 3D situation graphing theory)
    from
    Low off FO ZS,
    high bench change without.
    Acumalation from 2 seperate (FO & Bench change) zone start graphs.

    When/ if they get limited EVTOI with elite/top forwards you want a top open shot scorer
    So they rack a high goal volume with those limited elite minutes.

    Like Kassian:
    2013 Sedins 119:45; 4evg, 33.33 SH%, 5 evg #54 RW
    13-14 Richardson 480:25; 10 evg, 21.74 SH%, 13 evg #36 RW
    14-15 Sedins 121:30,; 4 evg, 32.05 SH%, 9 evg #55 RW
    16-17 7 evg #64 RW
    17-18 7 evg #63 RW
    18-19 McD/Drai 398:25, 8 evg, 17.02 SH%, 14 evg #37 RW
    19-20 Mcdavid 646:04, 13 evg, 19.70 SH%, 14 evg #14 RW

    #37 RW 5.167M cap
    #14 RW 6.25M cap

  20. fries n gravy says:

    Part of the reason Mike Smith was signed was to give Coach T a known entity within a roster of unknowns (… unknown to him). By next fall, Coach T will know the roster, nullifying that factor.

    I have no idea what they’ll do with the NHL tandem, but do know:
    – “tandem” is the idea going forward
    – they’re happy with Koskinen’s work
    – they know Mike Smith’s pros & cons and they’re glad they signed him
    – none of the AHL guys are pushing for NHL employment now

    My complete guess is that Smith will be resigned to another one year deal assuming he wants it, the conditioning stays strong, and no surprise third options emerge.

  21. DocFan says:

    I think a Neal Buyout is a much bigger anchor on this team than worrying about what Darnel’s next contract is.

    On LT’s projection, that is 6.2 million of cap space on buyouts. I do not think you can have that much dead money on your team, overpay a select group of players as well as be competitive.

    It’s like paying your credit card with your line of credit over and over, eventually the interest will eat you alive.

  22. so polar says:

    Goooooood morning everyone. Had some time to kill early today, so I decided to get wrapped up in hockeyviz.
    The Oilers a decade ago compared with the Oilers of today. God bless.

  23. dustrock says:

    DocFan:
    I think a Neal Buyout is a much bigger anchor on this team than worrying about what Darnel’s next contract is.

    Would you prefer for Neal to take up an active roster spot and his full salary?

    It’s not great, but it’s astronomical units better than Lucic’s contract.

  24. judgedrude says:

    Question about the Nurse contract:

    Does it make him more likely to be left unprotected in the expansion draft?

    We haven’t talked about that much lately, but what 3D do we protect? Bear, Bouchard and who? Would Nurse with a 1-year contract to UFA be enough of a deterrent to be left unprotected?

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    LT – you misspelled “Braden Holtby”.

  26. DocFan says:

    dustrock,

    I would prefer they play him as long as he can contribute in some meaningful way. Otherwise retain salary and trade him.

    Retaining 3mil x 2 years (i.e. a trade after next season) is better than 2mill x 6 years on a buyout (this summer).

    You can’t throw away cap space on dead value.

  27. doritogrande says:

    Bouchard will be exempt having played exactly two professional seasons. I protect Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, and hope that Jones doesn’t spike too much this next season.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    judgedrude:
    Question about the Nurse contract:

    Does it make him more likely to be left unprotected in the expansion draft?

    We haven’t talked about that much lately, but what 3D do we protect? Bear, Bouchard and who?Would Nurse with a 1-year contract to UFA be enough of a deterrent to be left unprotected?

    They’ll protect Klefbom, Nurse and Bear. IMO. Bouchard is exempt. That’ll leave Larsson (UFA), Jones and Lagesson (if signed) available.

  29. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    TBY (-140) at CBJ (+120) – Hottest team in hockey vs Jack Adams and George Vezina.Might put a unit on Jack and George.

    Seth Jones and Wennberg are injured.

  30. Reja says:

    fries n gravy:
    Part of the reason Mike Smith was signed was to give Coach T a known entity within a roster of unknowns (… unknown to him).By next fall, Coach T will know the roster, nullifying that factor.

    I have no idea what they’ll do with the NHL tandem, but do know:
    – “tandem” is the idea going forward
    – they’re happy with Koskinen’s work
    – they know Mike Smith’s pros & cons and they’re glad they signed him
    – none of the AHL guys are pushing for NHL employment now

    My complete guess is that Smith will be resigned to another one year deal assuming he wants it, the conditioning stays strong, and no surprise third options emerge.

    If Smith gets us to the playoffs with solid play and has a strong performance in the playoffs yes I could see Kenny rewarding Smith with another 1 year performance based contract. Which in turn will have a lot folks in these parts knickers in a knot.

  31. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think we’ll see a bridge with Bear, in the $2.25M – $2.5M range. Could be way off on that.

    Morrissey’s (and Nurse’s) bridge was just over $3 million.

    Why would Bear bridge for less?

  32. Oilin4 says:

    Seems to me like Holland has made it a priority to lock up FAs (UFAs and RFAs) in advance of the trade deadline. Is he looking to add a W or 3C with term? Scared of the price it would take TBH.

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock: Would you prefer for Neal to take up an active roster spot and his full salary?

    It’s not great, but it’s astronomical units better than Lucic’s contract.

    He’s the 2nd best power play goal scorer in the league, behind only David Pastrnak. I’d rather keep him if he can be an effective 4th liner – or retain 33% and find a trade partner.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Mike Smith: LOL!

    – Both Russell and Larsson’s contract expire next year, but Kris’ contract only cost $1.5MM

    – That RHD: Benning, Bear, Bouchard is a recipe for disaster IMO: rookie regression, injury, etc.

    – Amongst playoff teams, our GA is almost the worst already.

    – Anyway, lets see: suspect Larsson will be beast-mode like in last playoffs.

    – The structure of contracts on D always made sense to me: Benning, Kris, Larrsson all expiring while the kids emerge, and are tradable, or just fall off, or still have control (Nurse)

    – We have strong D pipeline: with lots of options, and not reliant on just one to emerge

    Cash outlay is only $1.5M (after bonus paid) but the cap hit is still $4M, just like Larsson’s.

    I am still adamant that, with all NHL teams within $7M of the upper cap limit, cap space is still primary in trades for almost all teams. There aren’t many (any) teams that need big cap contracts to get to the cap floor. Sure, some ownerships would like to spend less actual cash outlay, of course, and that is helpful in a Russell trade but that cap hit is still the primary issue.

    Also, the $1.5M cash outlay is only after the bonus is paid which would mean the trade would be after July 1 – the disposition would, preferably, happen prior to then for draft and free agency planning.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    buck yoakam:
    How about JP straight up for kovalchuk…if they are looking for a second then pull the trigger…could see the Habs all over that

    Don’t think that Holland has interest in Jesse straight up for a rental.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    I’m ok with the RHD as long as we re-sign Persson. I actually think Persson is already better than Larsson. Especially after WG’s GF analysis on Larsson.

    Bear, Benning, Persson, Bouchard then Russell and Jones in a pinch should be good.

    There was an interesting tidbit in Larsson’s numbers.

    Last year it was a combination of EDM getting less goals for and more goals against when he was on the ice.

    His Relative Team mate Goals/60 were: (RelTM are total weighted WOWY)

    18/19
    RelTM GF/60 -0.41/60
    RelTM GA/60 +0.31/60

    This resulted in his RelTM Goals/60 being -0.74. Every ~3 games his team mates would lose one goal in 5v5 goal differential. That’s pretty huge when you consider this is a weighted WOWY so that his effect on each player.

    For reference here that was 6th worse in the NHL behind:

    Gudbranson -1.11
    Braun -1.10
    Jack Johnson -1.07
    Ian Cole -0.99
    Zaitsev -.79

    This year its worse, but the cause is all one sided. Its all in the Goals For.

    This year Larsson’s RelTM are:

    RelTM GF/60 -0.93 (!!)
    RelTM GA/60 +0.01

    So defending he’s fine, needle doesn’t move at all.

    Goals For plummet into the Pit of Despair *hackcoughhackcough*

    Let’s see why:

    Rel TM Shots For/60 -1.63

    This is a big number. His team mates will get 1.6 less shots per ~3 games when they play with him. Doesn’t sound like a big number but it is when you consider that’s his averaged effect on EACH team mate.

    Rel TM Corsi For/60 -2.06

    This is big too. The team gets less shot attempts as well as less shots on net (natch). I think a lot of this can be chalked up to “off the glass and out” and not helping well with the breakout.

    Here’s the multiplier bogey:

    Oiler’s SH% Larsson On 5.02
    Oiler’s SH% Larsson Off 9.27

    Wowowowowow!! That’s massive.

    This immediately leads to the question: “Can Dmen effect SH%”?

    The short answer is No and we can expect Larsson’s ONSH% to regress the good way.

    The longer answer is: “What’s going on when he’s on the ice and what happened previous years?”

    EDM’s SH% with Larsson On/Off
    19/20
    On 5.02
    Off 9.27

    18/19
    On 5.81
    Off 8.81

    Hmmmmm, it was that way last year too…..

    17/18
    On 7.4
    Off 7.5

    Nothing going on two years ago

    16/17
    On 9.74
    Off 7.45

    Was opposite three years ago.

    Let’s look at his SH% WOWY with Klef and see if anything is going on there:

    19/20
    6 & 77 5.50
    Just 77 9.85
    Just 6 3.39 (!)
    Neither On 9.07

    In the immortal words of Vince Lombardi “what the hell is going on out there!?!?!”

    Let’s see if we see the same thing last year:

    18/19
    6 & 77 – 4.91
    Just 77 – 8.75
    Just 6 – 8.80
    Neither On 8.82

    The combo of them seemed to create a weird shitty shooting vortex. We will also accept “randomness/variance” as it doesn’t follow either when not with the other.

    What does this all mean?

    I dunno.

    The guess is that there is “something’ going on. Are the Dmen shooting too much when Larsson is on?

    What about Time with McDavid?

    I’ve documented how much Nurse Larsson are playing with McDavid compared to the other pairs.

    In case you missed it, here’s it is in brief:

    Percentage of 5v5 TOI with McDavid of total TOI for RHD

    Bear 56% with McDavid (!)
    Larsson 20% with McDavid
    Benning 23% with McDavid

    Why does this matter?

    EDM SH% McDavid On/Off
    McDavid On 11.0%
    McDavid Off 6.9%

    You can’t get Rel TM SH%, only On/Off so this is probably playing a role in his shitty Rel TM GF/60, however Rel TM GF is weighted WOWY and its not like the other forwards play with McDavid when not with Larsson so the impact can’t be huge, but I bet it does have an impact.

    To sum up:

    Goals go die for Oilers when they play with Larsson this year, the goals against don’t move.

    Why?

    Probably impacted by zone exits, too many Dmen shot, dying offensive sorties and not playing with McDavid (to some extent)

    Thank you for coming to my stream of consciousness (seriously, I typed this as I thought about what to look at) TED Talk.

  37. godot10 says:

    Oilin4:
    Seems to me like Holland has made it a priority to lock up FAs (UFAs and RFAs) in advance of the trade deadline. Is he looking to add a W or 3C with term? Scared of the price it would take TBH.

    Holland wants to know how much salary he can take on for next year in a trade at the deadline, so he is getting summer business done before the deadline.

  38. pts2pndr says:

    The Nurse extension is an excellent one for Holland. Anyone expecting Nurse to be a long time oiler is in for a big surprise. Holland will be listening to offers on Nurse this trade deadline with the price being very high. In the off season Nurse will available for the right price. Nurse will be moved on or before next years trade deadline. At this point in time Nurse has the most value trade wise and the team has players to backfill until Samorukov or Broberg are ready. In the comming off season both Toronto and Winnipeg will be looking to rebuild their D. What better way to start than with a young first pairing D at 5.6 for two years.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: If Smith gets us to the playoffs with solid play and has a strong performance in the playoffs yes I could see Kenny rewarding Smith with another 1 year performance based contract. Which in turnwill have a lot folks in these parts knickers in a knot.

    There are plenty of UFA goalies available this summer, at least 10 of which are better bets. There’s absolutely no need to re-sign a 38-year-old Mike Smith for another year.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2021/Sv/all/goalies/ufa

  40. judgedrude says:

    ArmchairGM: They’ll protect Klefbom, Nurse and Bear. IMO. Bouchard is exempt. That’ll leave Larsson (UFA), Jones and Lagesson (if signed) available.

    Ah. I thought Bouchard would be need to be protected as he would have played 2 seasons by the draft. Is it because he would still be in “Year 2” that the exception holds?

  41. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Morrissey’s (and Nurse’s) bridge was just over $3 million.

    Why would Bear bridge for less?

    Each of these players had close to 200 GP when they signed.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    judgedrude:
    Question about the Nurse contract:

    Does it make him more likely to be left unprotected in the expansion draft?

    We haven’t talked about that much lately, but what 3D do we protect? Bear, Bouchard and who?Would Nurse with a 1-year contract to UFA be enough of a deterrent to be left unprotected?

    Bouchard is exampt.

    Klef, Nurse and Bear will 100% be protected.

    They may want/need to protect Jones depending on how things go. That would mean 4 and 4 and things could get interesting – Drai, McDavid are no-brainers. Yamamoto likely requires protection. Nuge the 4th if re-signed (may choose/hope for a hand-shake deal to re-sign post expansion draft – that’s a big risk).

    What if Benson pops next year?

    What about Jesse?

    This is another issue to think about when trading an expansion draft exempt high value assets for live players.

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    judgedrude: Ah. I thought Bouchard would be need to be protected as he would have played 2 seasons by the draft.Is it because he would still be in “Year 2” that the exception holds?

    “All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.”

    https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft-faq

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    The IOC has opened its arms back to NHL players. “It’s pretty exciting stuff,” says NHLPA executive Mathieu Schneider. The NHL is more restrained in its reaction. But one thing is clear: the path to Beijing ’22 is there if they want it. My column:

    Come on NHL players at the Olympics.

    A nation vs nation tournament with the world’s best is required – don’t care if its the Olympics or not but its needed every four years – Olympics seems like the best option.

  45. JOFA says:

    If Benson is on the 3rd line next year, Holland didn’t do his job. Trade Benson ASAP.

    #neverplay100games
    #careerAHLer
    #europebound

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alan Walsh tweeted something along these lines yesterday but now LeBrun has a full article.

    “Specifically, the IOC is willing to cover the very costs it said ahead of the 2018 Olympics that it would no longer include, such a players’ insurance and travel costs, etc.”

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Morrissey’s (and Nurse’s) bridge was just over $3 million.

    Why would Bear bridge for less?

    one season

  48. Numenius says:

    DocFan:
    I think a Neal Buyout is a much bigger anchor on this team than worrying about what Darnel’s next contract is.

    On LT’s projection, that is 6.2 million of cap space on buyouts. I do not think you can have that much dead money on your team, overpay a select group of players as well as be competitive.

    It’s like paying your credit card with your line of credit over and over, eventually the interest will eat you alive.

    Reasonable concern, but I think Neal is a special case.

    If you’re going to buy him out at all, then you might as well do it in 2020.

    Compared with buying him out in 2021, in 2020 you save an additional 3.9 M on the cap, which is a tight year cap-wise.

    And all you have to do is add 1.9 M in 2025-26.

    So you save 2 M total on the cap and you get to sign a 3.9 M top 6 winger for this year and next.

    That’s not a bad deal.

  49. Oilin4 says:

    godot10: Holland wants to know how much salary he can take on for next year in a trade at the deadline, so he is getting summer business done before the deadline.

    I agree. I’m terrified of the price of that trade.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA:
    If Benson is on the 3rd line next year, Holland didn’t do his job. Trade Benson ASAP.

    #neverplay100games
    #careerAHLer
    #europebound

    Ahhhhh, I see the book is closed on the 21 year old.

    Got it!

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    I advocated for Nurse on a shorter term contract to keep the cap hit down last week. So, I’m reasonably pleased that Holland went this route although I was hoping for a 3 year term.

    Darnell provides a lot of intangibles in terms of leadership, physicality, durability, etc. But there’s only so much you can pay for intangibles when they’re accompanied by the defensive inconsistency in Nurse’s game.

    He has the tools to be a true shutdown defender if he can take the mental and positioning errors out of his game. He’s also a tad wiry and I don’t think it would hurt him to add a little more muscle. Seeing him unable to move Arvidsson out of the slot last week was very revealing imo.

  52. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interesting.

    What’s Larsson’s stats McDavid on/off with Larsson?

    Is QoC an issue here?

    If he’s playing the other team’s top 2 lines and GA are fine but GF dies, then that really fits the eye test in terms of Larsson controlling board play and Rickibox but once he has to pass his own blueline, the other team is locking down options. So often it’s “fire it off the board and out”.

    So he can continue to disrupt the other team defensively, but they probably retrieve the puck again because we can’t establish possession with Larsson against the top 2 lines.

    Like sort between top line medium and gritensity. What’s his GF if he’s facing the other team’s bottom 2 lines?

  53. knighttown says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    The IOC has opened its arms back to NHL players. “It’s pretty exciting stuff,” says NHLPA executive Mathieu Schneider. The NHL is more restrained in its reaction. But one thing is clear: the path to Beijing ’22 is there if they want it. My column:

    Come on NHL players at the Olympics.

    A nation vs nation tournament with the world’s best is required – don’t care if its the Olympics or not but its needed every four years – Olympics seems like the best option.

    Can the owners put aside their greed to get this done? Does Gary demand concessions in the CBA to “allow” the players to go because if that happens and I’m a rank and file member of the PA, I’m not sending the 1%-ers and taking less because of it.

  54. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: one season

    Draft pedigree.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid is indeed on the ice for practice.

  56. godot10 says:

    Bear will have 80 games as a top 4D and playing on the shutdown pair, and playing a full PK role.

    This is not some guy exiting the ELC on the 3rd pair.

    Bear is a full-fledged top 4 D.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    PP out 15 minutes early – Bear, Yamamoto and Nurse the “extras” for PP2 as per Rishaug – i think that means, they are the ones that play the last 25 seconds with McDavid/Drai.

  58. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    The IOC has opened its arms back to NHL players. “It’s pretty exciting stuff,” says NHLPA executive Mathieu Schneider. The NHL is more restrained in its reaction. But one thing is clear: the path to Beijing ’22 is there if they want it. My column:

    Come on NHL players at the Olympics.

    A nation vs nation tournament with the world’s best is required – don’t care if its the Olympics or not but its needed every four years – Olympics seems like the best option.

    What China wants, China gets. This is not the IOC. This is China dictating to the IOC.

  59. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I appreciate his honesty, because when I saw the line-up it immediately enraged me.

  60. Reja says:

    knighttown: Can the owners put aside their greed to get this done?Does Gary demand concessions in the CBA to “allow” the players to go because if that happens and I’m a rank and file member of the PA, I’m not sending the 1%-ers and taking less because of it.

    It does disrupt the season and I believe leads to more injuries because of the compact scheduling. It also dilutes the game to some degree because teams are playing exhausted hockey. Myself after watching Babcock and other nations playing God awful trap hockey I could take it or leave it.

  61. godot10 says:

    Numenius: Reasonable concern, but I think Neal is a special case.

    If you’re going to buy him out at all, then you might as well do it in 2020.

    Compared with buying him out in 2021, in 2020 you save an additional 3.9 M on the cap, which is a tight year cap-wise.

    And all you have to do is add 1.9 M in 2025-26.

    So you save 2 M total on the cap and you get to sign a 3.9 M top 6 winger for this year and next.

    That’s not a bad deal.

    But one might be able to make a clean disposition to Seattle near year in the expansion draft, with proper inducements.

    It depends on how Neal finishes the season. Whether he is useful in the playoffs. etc.

  62. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Don’t forget Berglund! He could/should be in the mix …

  63. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid is indeed on the ice for practice.

    Right on. Stick it where the sun doesn’t shine Hrudey you Flames shrill.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Some will argue that you can’t afford to lose Darnell so the Oil should’ve went as high as $7M or more to buy UFA years.

    Imo that mindset leads you to untradeable contracts.

    Now Ken has flexibility if he trades Larsson, Broberg or Bouchard push for Top 4, Nurse has an off year, etc.

    Darnell has a lot to prove, so a prove it contract seems like the best fit for team & player. Good for Ken for resisting the pull of the boat anchor.

  65. godot10 says:

    Russell could solve a lot of problems for the Oilers if he would retire after the season.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid did leave the ice after PP practice.

    Neal not skating at all.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Reid Wilkins:

    Haas between Gagner and Chiasson.

    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    Archibald-Sheahan-Kassian

    Khaira-Cave-P.Russell

    Neal not on the ice. McDavid did the pre-practice stuff then went off.

  68. rickithebear says:

    EVGA/60 is the only current measure of Open shot affect in analytics.
    All other measures fail as you move further away from evga/60
    Except when you make it a ratio of Corsi.
    (Evga/60)/Corsi faced = range Corsi – GA
    Since watching SOE of Corsi to Corsi, It is aparant that it is largely Forward/ Rover driven.

    Corsi Release:
    1. Measure Path outcome.
    Blocks
    Forced Misses
    Tips ( becomes new Corsi with path)
    Closed shot (hits goalie)
    Open shot:
    A. Saved (the single goalie measure):
    B. goal (Forward outcome measure)

    2. Create map of Success density of only Open ( Scoreable) shots.

    3. Identify Elite def Dmen:
    Closed Corsi ( blocks + forced misses + hit goalie) count can be measured specific to a dmans side.

    4. identify elite Goalies: saves/open shot relative to avg open SH success density x,y, z location map
    X,Y ice surface location
    Z location in net Elevation.

    Any Heat map without this Differentiation is not Known Science.
    (closed shots = hit goalie from 45+yr Table hockey goalie theory.)

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thanks for that.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Morrissey’s (and Nurse’s) bridge was just over $3 million.

    Why would Bear bridge for less?

    GP and draft slot.

    Morrissey had played 180 gp and was drafted 13th overall.

    Nurse had played 208 gp and was drafted 7th overall.

    Assuming Bear plays the whole season and 6 playoff games he’d be:

    106gp and drafted 124th.

    It’s also important to note that his first 18gp was 2 seasons ago followed by a season with no NHL games.

    These things matter in regards to RFA value on the 2nd contract.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jack Michaels
    @EdmontonJack
    Plan apparently was McDavid & Klefbom to get in a few reps at the start of practice, then get treatment. Neal not practicing today.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Nurse extension is official – 2 X $5.6M

  73. pts2pndr says:

    The time to sign Nurse long term was prior to first bridge. Nurse will get payed. I will hate to see him go as he could have and should have been locked up long term when it would have been in the 5 to 5.5. His next contract will put him in the 7 to 7.5 I believe. This will make him cost prohibitive to the Oilers as other players still have to be payed ie Nuge. With cost effective D coming up and a lack of forward depth I see Nurse being moved for a top six winger with term. Trading the undervalued younger D will not get the team the top six forward that is required. I see Nurse being traded for the likes of Ehlers or Panarin plus. A true hockey trade with value out for value in.

  74. DocFan says:

    Numenius: Reasonable concern, but I think Neal is a special case.

    If you’re going to buy him out at all, then you might as well do it in 2020.

    Compared with buying him out in 2021, in 2020 you save an additional 3.9 M on the cap, which is a tight year cap-wise.

    And all you have to do is add 1.9 M in 2025-26.

    So you save 2 M total on the cap and you get to sign a 3.9 M top 6 winger for this year and next.

    That’s not a bad deal.

    Interesting take – I didn’t look at it that way – will take a look at Capfriendly options. Thanks for the info!

  75. Numenius says:

    godot10: But one might be able to make a clean disposition to Seattle near year in the expansion draft, with proper inducements.

    It depends on how Neal finishes the season. Whether he is useful in the playoffs. etc.

    A clean disposition to Seattle would certainly be preferable. I wonder how realistic that is.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like I’m going to a match at Maracanã Stadium on Wed night in Rio between Flamego and Fluminense, the top two teams. That should be something.

  77. YKOil says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I advocated for Nurse on a shorter term contract to keep the cap hit down last week. So, I’m reasonably pleased that Holland went this route although I was hoping for a 3 year term.

    Darnell provides a lot of intangibles in terms of leadership, physicality, durability, etc. But there’s only so much you can pay for intangibles when they’re accompanied by the defensive inconsistency in Nurse’s game.

    He has the tools to be a true shutdown defender if he can take the mental and positioning errors out of his game. He’s also a tad wiry and I don’t think it would hurt him to add a little more muscle. Seeing him unable to move Arvidsson out of the slot last week was very revealing imo.

    I think the dollars are fair but this is, basically, the prelude to a total sh*tshow. The difference between $5.60m and $6.25m is middling at best so this doesn’t speak to Nurse taking a discount because he wants to stay here so bad, it speaks to Nurse taking a discount to get to UFA to force the contract that he ultimately wants (which is probably $7m plus).

    And $7+m is too much for his skillset.

    All my opinion but that is what I see coming down the pike. We either get forced into a deadline trade or pay through the nose.

  78. fries n gravy says:

    I like the Nurse deal.

    Why:
    – cap clarity, enabling other moves before the deadline
    – I’ve liked his game since junior
    – evidently there are question marks for the long term plan, yet both sides were able to put those aside and do something practical
    – Darnell is financially set for life, assuming he’s not an idiot. Well done, young man! I like it when people succeed.

  79. fries n gravy says:

    YKOil,

    Yes. I’m still peeved at the last contract. That was a missed opportunity to lock into a longer deal before the cost was sky high.

    There’s a chance Nurse is still here in three years, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

  80. Reja says:

    Piss on Pete all you want but he left Holland with pipeline of D if Kenny chooses the right fit on D for this team and gets good value for the cast-offs we’re styling for years on the cheap.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Bear will have 80 games as a top 4D and playing on the shutdown pair, and playing a full PK role.

    This is not some guy exiting the ELC on the 3rd pair.

    Bear is a full-fledged top 4 D.

    The list of sophomore dmen who regress is substantial. I did a short list a few days or weeks ago.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    They’ll know in 2 years whether he’s a legit 7M player.

    I suspect he’s not in which case they’ll be glad they didn’t sign him to an overpay or untradeable contract today. If he is that good down the road, you have bad contracts coming off the books and possibly a higher ceiling to work with.

    This is an overpay imo just as the Kassian contract is. But they’re not massive overpays from a market perspective and that’s key. Ken is avoiding the full on boat anchors while still trying to get some roster certainty for the next couple seasons. You can trade either of these latest contracts if you need to. These are not Ference/Lucic type deals. Baby steps.

  83. rickithebear says:

    godot10:
    Russell could solve a lot of problems for the Oilers if he would retire after the season.

    So based on actual differentiation from Open shots and Closed shots.
    Rather than non Scientific inclusion of
    A. Forward/Rover Corsi to Corsi affect:
    NZ Defence dictating allowing Dmen zone entry prevention.
    B. Forward/Dmen evg/60 Cummulative (sum) affect of 5 skater units = evgf/60
    per Nat stat trick 18-19
    14 x 31 fwds = 434; 243 min is 435 forwards and 325 Dmen.

    Top 3 fwd .98 evg/60 (95 fwd) (0 Dmen) achieved
    0/(95 + 0) = 0.000%

    Top 6 fwd .74 (187 fwd) (3 Dmen)
    3/(187 + 3) = 1.579%

    Top 9 fwd .65 (282 fwd) (5 Dmen)
    5/(282 + 5) = 1.742%

    Top 10 fwd 0.60 (313 fwd) (6 Dmen)
    6/(313 + 6) = 1.881%

    Top 11 fwd 0.53 (344 fwd) (11 Dmen)
    11/(344 + 11) = 3.099%

    Top 12 fwd (375 fwd) (19 Dmen)
    19/(375 + 19) = 4.822%

    If we forced all 5 skaters to play like Rovers.
    Then Rover evg/60 would matter!
    LMFAO!

    Their is zero reason for Dmen trying to score evg other than 4/5th uncovered option that allows quick return to def of free path to their side of Homeplate.
    It is an utter OFF & DEF faiilure otherwise!

    You want to get rid of one of the best Closed shot Dmen that does not chase evg/60.
    But tries to get the puck to the 11 skaters that matter on almost every team when it comes to evg/60.

    That is Scientifically Brutal!

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    Two years from now, the Oil could have all of Bouchard, Broberg and Samourkov pushing for the Top 4 alongside Klefbom and Bear. THAT is a cost effective D that gives you cap $ to spend on Fs & G. I suspect that’s what Holland was thinking when he considered giving Nurse big money AND term.

    You can afford 2 maybe 3 max luxe deals on your roster. I agree with Holland that Nurse was the wrong horse to bet on for that 3rd bank breaker. Especially with what’s developing in the system.

  85. Oilin4 says:

    Oilers lines if McDavid doesn’t play tomorrow

    Nuge-Drai-Yamo
    Khaira-Gagner-Kassian
    Oh-My-God
    Make-It-Stop
    Please

  86. stephen sheps says:

    JimmyV1965: The list of sophomore dmen who regress is substantial. I did a short list a few days or weeks ago.

    some might say he’s not a true freshman anymore and that this is his sophomore season after playing as a redshirt freshman in the show 2 years ago.

    ymmv

  87. cowboy bill says:

    I really wonder about that new bridge contract . I just can’t buy that Nurse truly is a core player . If he is , they would have locked him up for at least 4 years . As it is he’s still on a show me contract and could be on the trade block . $5.6 M x2 , then he’s a UFA , he’d better prove himself . I’d say Holland isn’t betting on a long term extension . The pressure is on Darnell .

  88. Reja says:

    Oilin4:
    Oilers lines if McDavid doesn’t play tomorrow

    Nuge-Drai-Yamo
    Khaira-Gagner-Kassian
    Oh-My-God
    Make-It-Stop
    Please

    Where did you hear he’s not playing?

  89. Side says:

    Oilin4:
    Oilers lines if McDavid doesn’t play tomorrow

    Nuge-Drai-Yamo
    Khaira-Gagner-Kassian
    Oh-My-God
    Make-It-Stop
    Please

    I didn’t mind Oh’s board work last game.

    God did okay too.

    Make was brutal though and I’m glad to see him on the 4th line where he deserves.

  90. pts2pndr says:

    After his summer bonus is paid he should be easy to move. He becomes cheap insurance at that point so the team may be better served to keep him until the trade dead line.

  91. Litke 94 says:

    I once took a sort-of front foot kick from a horse right above my knee. The horse went to paw its front leg and caught me really good with his hoof when he was striking downward.

    That f***ing sucked. It hurt to move my knee for about a week. Swelled up right above the knee, right over top of the joint or whatever it is that juts up north from the knee cap.

    The thing I hated most about it was how stiff it would get if I didn’t move it. It was like you couldn’t win. It hurt like a bitch to walk, but if I left it, it almost felt like it locked up and then hurt even more when I would go and move it. I’d spend 20 minutes on the jog cart on the racetrack, and then go to get off and would hobble around until I could get back on the next horse. Brutal week.

  92. Litke 94 says:

    Point being, if McDavid misses tomorrow’s game, I don’t blame him and I also wouldn’t be concerned about his long term health. That is one awful place to take a stinger.

  93. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’d rather Connor take the game off. Need him at 100%.

  94. Durag says:

    Tell me if I’m crazy, but I would rather buyout Koskinen than Neal. 5.5 for a guy who had limitations but will probably score 25 is not ideal, but 4.5 for a backup goalie is ludicrous.

  95. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Should we start a poll on Bear contract? Term and value?
    I would like to see at least a 4 year deal, if not longer. He doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Klef and others. I think significant regression is unlikely. There is still some wobble but he is having to play significantly tough minutes.
    How is ~4x3M? (as an “extended bridge”)?
    Or 7x4M? (Which would be just under 5% of possible team cap next year (83M); Klef had 5.7% on his 7 year post ELC contract)

    ??

  96. Darth Tu says:

    If it’s 7x$4 million for Bear, sign me up.

  97. slopitch says:

    The problem with Tatar or Palmeri or whomever is you acquire them, put them on McDavids wing and now have to pay them more because they get 20 extra points. Im not sure whats a better alternative though. Teams dont generally move players under contract unless they are underperforming. Maybe get the Sabres to eat 3 mill of Skinner? Sure we’d all like Ehlers but cant see why the Jets would move him. Gaudreau? Ha.

    I’ve been saying for over a month now the Oilers should move Larsson for a 2020 1st 😀 Larsson isnt that good and Bouchard isnt gonna get a long playoff run with the Condors. Bringing him up wouldnt be the worst. Load up for expansion and make it the last time they “sell” for a decade.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    The bridge contract says to me that Holland doesn’t see Nurse as a core piece moving forward.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Durag:
    Tell me if I’m crazy, but I would rather buyout Koskinen than Neal. 5.5 for a guy who had limitations but will probably score 25 is not ideal, but 4.5 for a backup goalie is ludicrous.

    – Neal is in the same boat as Kassian and Chiasson: in that if they don’t play with skill players, they don’t score and are over-paid.

    – Koski: he’s like most goaltenders: his results are mostly a function of the team and D that are on the ice when he’s playing over a season

    – Koski is properly paid in the context of being on a team that is decent: why buy him out?

    – Neal, Kassian and Chiasson: they aren’t properly paid if they aren’t good enough to play with skill. Put many guys in the situations they were all given and they do +/- the same collectively IMO (and its backed up)

    – Most wingers rely on overall skill of sum of the 4 other players on the ice to score mostly.

    – Wingers are mostly basically the same IMO: so paying a meh winger because they are doing well playing with studs is a fool’s game. We have seen that many wingers score well with CmD or Drai

    – To some extent the same with goalies: they are only really as good as the team behind them

  100. TheGreatBigMac says:

    DocFan,

    Another option is Neal + pick/prospect to Seattle. Hate to do that to the guy, he’s been good for us this year but that would be a win. What would you pay, Toronto gave a 1st for Marleau. Would hate to loose Jones for nothing.

  101. PennersPancakes says:

    Crazy. Neal = “has limitations” is being gentle and Koskinen = backup is being very critical.

    Tippet has been playing Smith more recently (very streaky goalie) but Koskinen still has more GP, higher save %(.909 vs .901), and slightly better quality starts.

    .909 puts Koskinen within .01 of other goalies such as Andersen, Binnington, Demko, Rittich, Georgiev.

    Also puts him above Lundqvist, Fleury, Hart, and Gibson. Koskinen is a starter. Probably a tandem guy instead of a full on 60 GP but still a starter.

  102. pts2pndr says:

    I would even go eight. The only proviso for me is there can be no built in bonus structure and absolutely no, no move/no trade clauses.

  103. Darth Tu says:

    Do we have to pay them more? Tatar is UFA after next season. He’s also 30 next season. He’s on course for a career high in points this year as well – playing on the top line for Montreal, and had a 25 goal, 33 assist year last season.

    He’s a career 20 goal a season scorer (on average) so that goes in his favour. However, he’ll be 30 next season. Even if he posts 30 goals next season I don’t think I’d want to pay him more than $5.5 mill per over 3 years.

    The key thing someone like Tatar does is he brings fairly reliable scoring for the rest of this season, and for next year. That buys time for a younger winger to emerge (or Puljujarvi to decide he’s interested).

    Going back to the start of this reply, do we have to pay him big money to sign him? Probably not, we could always opt to walk away if his demands are too high. Let someone else step on that landmine contract for once.

    It should be noted I like Tatar, and would personally enjoy seeing him on McDavid’s wing for a season and a bit at least.

  104. who says:

    pts2pndr:
    The time to sign Nurse long term was prior to first bridge. Nurse will get payed. I will hate to see him go as he could have and should have been locked up long term when it would have been in the 5 to 5.5. His next contract will put him in the 7 to 7.5 I believe. This will make him cost prohibitive to the Oilers as other players still have to be payed ie Nuge. With cost effective D coming up and a lack of forward depth I see Nurse being moved for a top six winger with term. Trading the undervalued younger D will not get the team the top six forward that is required. I see Nurse being traded for the likes of Ehlers or Panarin plus. A true hockey trade with value out for value in.

    What about resigning him at 7 million long term and then trading Klefbom?

  105. godot10 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Should we start a poll on Bear contract? Term and value?
    I would like to see at least a 4 year deal, if not longer. He doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Klef and others. I think significant regression is unlikely. There is still some wobble but he is having to play significantly tough minutes.
    How is ~4x3M? (as an “extended bridge”)?
    Or 7x4M? (Which would be just under 5% of possible team cap next year (83M); Klef had 5.7% on his 7 year post ELC contract)

    ??

    A term of four years will take Bear to unrestricted free agency. Bear’s contract 99% for certain will NOT be for four years.

  106. godot10 says:

    who: What about resigning him at 7 million long term and then trading Klefbom?

    Neither Klefbom or Nurse can really be traded in the next two years. They may be imperfect, but they are legit top four D who can carry big minutes just beginning their prime. They are basically irreplaceable in the short term unless another GM were to make a blunder.

  107. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Neal is in the same boat as Kassian and Chiasson: in that if they don’t play with skill players, they don’t score and are over-paid.

    – Koski: he’s like most goaltenders: his results are mostly a function of the team and D that are on the ice when he’s playing over a season

    – Koski is properly paid in the context of being on a team that is decent: why buy him out?

    – Neal, Kassian and Chiasson: they aren’t properly paid if they aren’t good enough to play with skill.Put many guys in the situations they were all given and they do +/- the same collectively IMO (and its backed up)

    – Most wingers rely on overall skill of sum of the 4 other players on the ice to score mostly.

    – Wingers are mostly basically the same IMO: so paying a meh winger because they are doing well playing with studs is a fool’s game.We have seen that many wingers score well with CmD or Drai

    – To some extent the same with goalies: they are only really as good as the team behind them

    All this is true.
    But I’d rather play my meh wingers 2.1 and 3.2 instead of 5.75.

  108. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who: All this is true.
    But I’d rather play my meh wingers 2.1 and 3.2 instead of 5.75.

    – Yup: I’d assume Neal buy-out gives room to get another “meh winger” in the $2.1-$3.2MM range

    – So 6 one way, half-dozen another

    – He’s not going anywhere anyways: at least not for another year: some of these alternate universe rabbit holes some get sucked into are funny.

    – How ’bout that Hallsy guy: has there been any discussion on him coming here ever? Might be worth discussing for some.

  109. dustrock says:

    Darth Tu:
    If it’s 7x$4 million for Bear, sign me up.

    You think Bear would go 7 years at $4m? Maybe with some step-ups and an annual average of $4m but that seems low to me. There’s zero way he signs for less than what Klefbom is making.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock,

    Interesting.

    What’s Larsson’s stats McDavid on/off with Larsson?

    5v5 SH%
    97 with Larsson 5.1%
    97 without Larsson 11.8%
    6 without McDavid 5.0%
    Neither on ice 7.5%


    Is QoC an issue here?

    Not that I can see.

    f he’s playing the other team’s top 2 lines and GA are fine but GF dies, then that really fits the eye test in terms of Larsson controlling board play and Rickibox but once he has to pass his own blueline, the other team is locking down options. So often it’s “fire it off the board and out”.

    So he can continue to disrupt the other team defensively, but they probably retrieve the puck again because we can’t establish possession with Larsson against the top 2 lines.

    Agreed.


    Like sort between top line medium and gritensity. What’s his GF if he’s facing the other team’s bottom 2 lines?

    GF/60 Larsson On:
    Elite 1.57
    Middle 1.41
    Grits 1.26

    GF/60 Larsson and Klefbom
    Elite 2.00
    MIddle 1.00
    Grits 1.99

    GF/60 Klefbom without Larsson
    Elite 3.30
    Middle 2.88
    Grits 2.75

  111. who says:

    godot10: Neither Klefbom or Nurse can really be traded in the next two years.They may be imperfect, but they are legit top four D who can carry big minutes just beginning their prime.They are basically irreplaceable in the short term unless another GM were to make a blunder.

    I could see the Oilers extending Nurse in the summer of 2021 and then trading Klefbom sometime during the following year.
    At that point Klefbom would have 1 or 2 years left on his deal and the Oilers would have 1 to 2 years to figure out what they have in their young lefty dmen. If one of them look like they might be ready for top 4 they may choose to cash in Klefbom before his next contract.
    Essentially, next year Klefbom and Nurse may be competing to decide who stays with the Oilers long term. The other guy is probably going to land the Oilers a nice forward.

  112. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Was still an interesting way for you to trot out your charley-horse story.

  113. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Neither Klefbom or Nurse can really be traded in the next two years.They may be imperfect, but they are legit top four D who can carry big minutes just beginning their prime.They are basically irreplaceable in the short term unless another GM were to make a blunder.

    Big minutes of brutal evga/60

    What fantasy land are you in.

    Seriously educate yourself and look at the GAA for the 4 games won in every series win
    In the last decade from Cup champs.

    Here is a hint.
    Better be 2.00 GAA or better in most.

    Nurse – Bear 3.43 evga/60 That is not a fucking Chsmpionship Dpair.

    They are a Def nightmare.

    I was going to present EVGA/60 positive with +/- 1 STD deviation and median.

    But had to respond to this uneducated non scientific Point of view!

  114. Ice Sage says:

    Side: I didn’t mind Oh’s board work last game.

    God did okay too.

    Make was brutal though and I’m glad to see him on the 4th line where he deserves.

    LOL and I’d rather ‘Stop’ was in net

  115. Darth Tu says:

    It’s definitely low – hence the sign me up.

    I think $5 million is more realistic. If we get an AAV of $4.5 million is still a bargain.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side,

    God did okay too.

    When he wants to play he can dominate.

  117. OilClog says:

    Columbus loses Seth Jones indefinitely.

    Columbus has gone something like 15-2-2 since Josh Andersons bum shoulder gave out during his fight in Ottawa.

    A broken needs a year off Larsson is going to be dealt for a broken Josh Anderson if he comes back off the ir before the deadline.

    I like Josh Anderson I think he could do big things, but the damn local MSM is going to have a pack of fresh whips at every turn for this fella.

    As is the Oilers way this is how it goes and it’s going to be ugly but unable to pull the eyes off of. Should be great.

    He’s also a right wing instead of a left wing, so him and Kassian will be having all sorts of who can keep it together battles.

    Maybe they should just trade for another 2C instead of a winger and 3C. Slide the new 2C between Nuge and Kail, throw Leon back together with Connor and let the beat down commence. Leon is the best winger out the for 97, a new spicy 2C might create the element that allows for time travel ?‍♂️

  118. OilClog says:

    With all that, and it being said that their time on ice is mostly with McDavid.. And McDavid has been on the ice for the most goals against in the last 2 seasons.. Where does the bear of the blame lay?

    McDavid has been on the ice for the most goals for and against the last 2 years, it’s a wild time out there!

    Also, Fistric sucks.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock,

    More WoodWOWY

    GF/60

    McDavid and Larsson
    Elite 1.53
    Middle 0.00 (in 39.8 min)
    Grits 1.94

    McDavid without Larsson
    Elite 4.93
    Middle 2.38
    Grits 2.85

    That Elite disparity is incredible. Small sample size warnings abound but wow.

  120. fries n gravy says:

    … including the savvy bet on Ethan Bear.

  121. OilClog says:

    3.30 vs elite with no Larsson.

    The dreamy is real and the nitemares hurt.

  122. npanciroli says:

    Free Persson!

  123. PennersPancakes says:

    Does the GA have a big jump too?

  124. Yeti says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Was still an interesting way for you to trot out your charley-horse story.

    I think that was his mane point.

  125. dustrock says:

    Holy doodle Klefbom.

  126. dustrock says:

    Ha ha ha wowwwwwww. Agreed, forgot to ask about Larsson Elite/Mid/Grit GA.

  127. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Good of you to say so, I was afraid of sticking my hoof in my mouth.

  128. Oil2Oilers says:

    I will be happy with the Nurse deal is it leads to a Larsson for Kappenen deal later this week.

    Call up Pearson to cover and have Russell as 7D. Bouchard can be a rookie PK’esq black Ace in the playoffs. When the years of service rules no longer matter.

    Larsson is the hairy arsed type defender that you like in the playoffs, but I have long posited that the Oilers do not have the goal tending for a long playoff run, so best bloody the troops you plan to have long term.

    For those who answer, but ‘Mike Smith’ was good in the playoffs last year, do you – in your heart of hearts – believe Mr. Smith would of shut the door in the third period against Calgary? That was the closest the Oilers have come to a playoff game in a while, but despite the lead and Oilers excellent play I for one was nervous about Smith letting Calgary back in the game before he got kicked out.

  129. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    dustrock,

    Interesting.


    What’s Larsson’s stats McDavid on/off with Larsson?

    5v5 SH%
    97 with Larsson 5.1%
    97 without Larsson 11.8%
    6 without McDavid 5.0%
    Neither on ice 7.5%


    Is QoC an issue here?

    Not that I can see.

    f he’s playing the other team’s top 2 lines and GA are fine but GF dies, then that really fits the eye test in terms of Larsson controlling board play and Rickibox but once he has to pass his own blueline, the other team is locking down options. So often it’s “fire it off the board and out”.


    So he can continue to disrupt the other team defensively, but they probably retrieve the puck again because we can’t establish possession with Larsson against the top 2 lines.

    Agreed.


    Like sort between top line medium and gritensity. What’s his GF if he’s facing the other team’s bottom 2 lines?

    GF/60 Larsson On:
    Elite 1.57
    Middle 1.41
    Grits 1.26

    GF/60 Larsson and Klefbom
    Elite 2.00
    MIddle 1.00
    Grits 1.99

    GF/60 Klefbom without Larsson
    Elite 3.30
    Middle 2.88
    Grits 2.75

    You might want to look at shots that have greater than 0% chance of going In!

    Did you just read my post.
    Top 10 skaters
    6D of (313 F + 6D) 1.881%

    Rover/ Dmen have no affect on EVG/60 in a 5 skater accumulative ( sum of all evg/60) group.

    Then you look at a Larsson an elite def Dmen who has almost no affect on evg/60 production as almost every other Rover/ Dman in the game.

    It will save your confusion!

    Did you differentiate the 2, 3D Player situation Graphs in groups of averages (07-08 theory)
    Comp, team, (2 kind ZS: OFF FO & Bench change with/Without pocession)

    Spend some time looking at as many Oiler games
    Shots
    NZ transition
    as you can. 5-10 gm

    Count/identify how many are closed and how many are open shots
    How many are a Perimeter and how many are Homeplate.
    Print off a map for each period.
    White out the closed.

    Determine who many transitions fail cause of NZ defence.
    Diferentiate by both types of ZS ( FO & Bench)
    both types Structure ( 3-1-1-1 & 3-2-1)

    After that walk up to a mirror and look at yourself and Give yourself the Red “Dumbass” ?

    I saw this shit out between the age of 4-10.

    Was able to finally differentiate mentally between Multivariant observed Science and Mental modelled theoretical ( Fantasy) around age 30.

    Repeated mechanical human SOE action through observation, Is how I did things till 30.
    From Eating, wiping my ass to Construction, Parks Canada trail Maint.

    Was funny!
    When playing sports Could mentally slow down play and understand we’re everything was going to go.

    The Power of Autism!

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    What about Alex Killorn as a 1LW target?

  131. VanIsleOil says:

    That must have hurt…. You probably had to carefully canter before you could gallop with that bum knee.

  132. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Think about it… a touch higher and that stud would have taken one right in the tack-le.

  133. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bouchard will still burn a year off his ELC if he plays >9 games including playoffs this season.

  134. dessert1111 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Per Reid Wilkins:

    Haas between Gagner and Chiasson.

    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    Archibald-Sheahan-Kassian

    Khaira-Cave-P.Russell

    Neal not on the ice. McDavid did the pre-practice stuff then went off.

    Wow. Take out McD and we are back to one good line and 3 4th lines.

  135. Yeti says:

    You guys seriously have to rein these puns in.

  136. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM:
    What about Alex Killorn as a 1LW target?

    Stamkos is injured tonight, don’t know how concerning it is for their GM. Killorn has a full NTC till July 1.

    Edit: Modified 16 team trade-able list thereafter

  137. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    You are right!
    Brain fart.

  138. OilClog says:

    Larsson hasn’t been an elite Def Dman that couldn’t piss a drop offensively since about the end of the 2017/2018 season.

    Calling him an elite Def Dman since that point is wrong, unless you’re trying to suggest that Ryan Johansen is the David Bowie of forwards and can magically walk the puck down the sidewalls unscathed doing whatever he wants with it, while said elite Def Dman Nils Erik Adam Jeremy Larsson is patrolling that very same area.

  139. Yeti says:

    rickithebear: After that walk up to a mirror and look at yourself and Give yourself the Red “Dumbass”
    I saw this shit out between the age of 4-10.
    Was able to finally differentiate mentally between Multivariant observed Science and Mental modelled theoretical ( Fantasy) around age 30.
    Repeated mechanical human SOE action through observation, Is how I did things till 30.
    From Eating, wiping my ass to Construction, Parks Canada trail Maint.
    Was funny!
    When playing sports Could mentally slow down play and understand we’re everything was going to go.
    The Power of Autism!

    Baby, by posting this kind of vitriol and vanity, you’re only managing to give autism a bad name.

  140. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Probably impacted by zone exits, too many Dmen shot, dying offensive sorties and not playing with McDavid (to some extent)

    This Larsson SH% thing is truly bizarre. And only one of your speculative reasons really makes sense… ie too many Dmen shots (and even then you’d think it would be washed out by sample size). I can’t think of anything other than w.r.t. Larsson the universe we are experiencing in the Casino of universes is one where the probabilities of these things coming together in this way is extremely low… but of course, actually occurring.

  141. Genjutsu says:

    Money.

    It’s real and it’s spectacular.

  142. VanIsleOil says:

    You have to be careful with equine…..best to stay in front of the horse.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTpDL84z12A

  143. v4ance says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL17
    COL16
    DAL12

    As if
    EDM9
    VAN9
    VGP7

    Wildcard
    CGY6
    WPG6

    Out of playoffs
    NSH5
    ARI4
    MIN3
    CHI3
    ANA-3
    SJS-3
    LAK-14

    WPG wins 3 games in 4 nights moves back up the standings.COL does same (4 wins in a row now) and threatens first in the conference.

    Relevant games tonight:

    ARI (+120) at MTL (-140) – Kovy seems to have given MTL new life and ARI is spinning their wheels.

    NSH (-115) at VAN (-105) – surprised that VAN is a slight dog here.I think they have some value.

    CGY (-115) at SJS (-105) – I like SJS at this price if they forecheck CGY like they did EDM as CGY’s Dcorps without Gio should be beatable.

    Craig Morgan @CraigSMorgan

    Darcy Kuemper apparently suffered an injury at the skate today and will not play tonight in Montreal, per source. Tough luck continues for Coyotes goalies.

    How quickly can we all bet on Montreal before that line starts moving? Who’s Arizona’s 3rd string goalie? Ummm, I mean 4th string goalie? EBUG? (Emergency Backup goalie)

    ***
    EDIT

    Pat Steinberg @Fan960Steinberg

    With Hamonic on IR, it confirms he will not play for the remainder of this road trip. Calgary is in San Jose tonight, LA on Wednesday, and Anaheim on Thursday.

    Hamonic eligible to return Saturday against Chicago. #Flames

    Darren Haynes @DarrenWHaynes

    The Flames top D pairing is suddenly Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson — combined age of 46.

    Zdeno Chara turns 43 next month.

    San Jose looking a whole lot nicer now too all of a sudden…

  144. Munny says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, it is great to see you alive and kicking and your usual rambunctious self.

    But please refrain from calling other commentors stupid or dumbasses.

  145. duct tape and foil says:

    The game has changed and not in a way that favors Larsson. So if there is value at the deadline, even though he is a favorite, then a deal seems prudent if not wise. You can still be a defense-first dman in this league but you better skate like JBow and not Hatcher.,

    What the hell, explore everything. Maybe NJD will take Lars and Neal for Subban 🙂

  146. ChiliChunk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: God did okay too.

    When he wants to play he can dominate.

    And just imagine if he upgraded his staff from wood to composite…

  147. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I vote neigh.

  148. Munny says:

    Kovalchuk is a weird add to ponder. I agree with the poster above who thinks he can be had just for the rights to Pujo. I was thinking the same last night while contemplating trade targets.

    But does he really fill a need?

    Ideally you’d want to give that guy a mountain of PP time to allow his one-timer to do some damage, but… our 1PP is stellar and already has one-timers deployed. You could sub out Neal for Kovy, but Neal provides net front presence and the soft, quick hands needed to bury rebounds, tip pucks. That’s not really Kovy’s game.

    Would it be nice to add a world class shot to McDavid’s wing? Absolutely. And maybe in the short term that’s enough. But the term would only ever be short, and the Pujo asset would be gone forever.

  149. YKOil says:

    Just playing the role of dungbeetle here (i.e. rolling it around) but every now and then

    … Victor Rask in Minny, what would need to be added to Neal to make that trade happen? Both buyouts (for us) in the off-season but one costs less and is over much more quickly.

    Minny is looking at a bit of a rebuild whether they know it or not. I really like Joel Erickson Ek, too bad they do to.

    If I trade Larsson to get my winger… can I pry DeMelo out of Ottawa? That’s a win I think.

    Thinking of Ottawa, if the deal was Connor Brown, a signed JG Pageau and they take back Neal… is that worth the 1st rounder and Pulju? I lean to ‘yes’ if it the 2021 1st. Even if I have to retain $500-750k.

    Best deal out of Ottawa has to be Ennis. Ennis, at $800k will be popular.

    Still with Ottawa, how about Bobby Ryan? Buyout is more expensive in year 1 and 2 but its a little cheaper in years 3 and 4 AND there is no year 5 and 6.

    Sticking with the buy-out theme – doesn’t a Neal for Abdelkader deal make a ton of sense? Less money year-to-year regardless and if I do buy him out I save a little in year 1, pay a little more in years 2-3 and then save a whack in years 4-6. What does my good friend Stevie Y want for Abdelkader in a Neal for Abdelkader swap?

    Stevie is facing a long rebuild after all. Any extra asset is a good extra asset.

    And that is all for now.

  150. Munny says:

    YKOil,

    Bring… Me… ENNIS!

  151. Munny says:

    Kapanen is clearly in the TO Doghouse, a house he’s inhabited before with this coaching staff.

    I would call up Dubas and give him the choice of two offers:

    Rights to Pujo + Chiasson.

    Pujo Is an exchange of one Finnish Flake for a slightly older version of the same, Chiasson fills their F roster spot immediately and adds to their need for size and toughness. Also frees up some salary for Dubas.

    OR

    KRusty with $2M retained and Khaira.

    Fills two roster needs and keeps the cap hits basically equivalent.

  152. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    His hockey theories haven’t changed in 45 years by his own admission, why would his personality change either?

  153. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I’d be remiss to add Kovy as a rental for Pujo when Neal already fills the role and does add more to the equation, as you’ve mentioned.

  154. Side says:

    rickithebear:
    Was able to finally differentiate mentally between Multivariant observed Science and Mental modelled theoretical ( Fantasy) around age 30.

    Repeated mechanical human SOE action through observation, Is how I did things till 30.
    From Eating, wiping my ass to Construction, Parks Canada trail Maint.

    Was funny!
    When playing sports Could mentally slow down play and understand we’re everything was going to go.

    It’s a shame you could not see what would happen when you don’t back up your work on the computer..

  155. Nit64 says:

    ~ Can we use lying, dog-faced pony soldier, then? ~

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    After his summer bonus is paid he should be easy to move. He becomes cheap insurance at that point so the team may be better served to keep him until the trade dead line.

    He isn’t cheap insurance – his cap hit is still $4M no matter the cash outlay.

    Although the lower cash outlay than cap hit doesn’t hurt a disposition, the high cap hit is still the most material factor. Sure, owners would like to pay less but cap space is king. There are no teams needing big hits to get to the cap floor. The entire league is within $7M of the upper cap limit.

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: You might want to look at shots that have greater than 0% chance of going In!

    Did you just read my post.
    Top 10 skaters
    6D of (313 F + 6D) 1.881%

    Rover/ Dmenhave no affect on EVG/60 in a 5 skater accumulative ( sum of all evg/60) group.

    Then you look at a Larsson an elite def Dmen who hasalmost no affect on evg/60 production as almost every other Rover/ Dman in the game.

    It will save your confusion!

    Did you differentiate the 2,3D Player situation Graphs in groups of averages (07-08 theory)
    Comp, team, (2 kind ZS: OFF FO & Bench change with/Without pocession)

    Spend some time looking at as many Oiler games
    Shots
    NZ transition
    as you can. 5-10 gm

    Count/identify how many are closed and how many are open shots
    How many are a Perimeter and how many are Homeplate.
    Print off a map for each period.
    White out the closed.

    Determine who many transitions fail cause of NZ defence.
    Diferentiate by both types of ZS ( FO & Bench)
    both types Structure ( 3-1-1-1 & 3-2-1)

    After that walk up to a mirror and look at yourself and Give yourself the Red “Dumbass”

    I saw this shit out between the age of 4-10.

    Was able to finally differentiate mentally between Multivariant observed Science and Mental modelled theoretical ( Fantasy) around age 30.

    Repeated mechanical human SOE action through observation, Is how I did things till 30.
    From Eating, wiping my ass to Construction, Parks Canada trail Maint.

    Was funny!
    When playing sports Could mentally slow down play and understand we’re everything was going to go.

    The Power of Autism!

    FIRETRUCK!

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ChiliChunk: And just imagine if he upgraded his staff from wood to composite…

    Heathen!

  159. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Neal is in the same boat as Kassian and Chiasson: in that if they don’t play with skill players, they don’t score and are over-paid.

    – Koski: he’s like most goaltenders: his results are mostly a function of the team and D that are on the ice when he’s playing over a season

    – Koski is properly paid in the context of being on a team that is decent: why buy him out?

    – Neal, Kassian and Chiasson: they aren’t properly paid if they aren’t good enough to play with skill.Put many guys in the situations they were all given and they do +/- the same collectively IMO (and its backed up)

    – Most wingers rely on overall skill of sum of the 4 other players on the ice to score mostly.

    – Wingers are mostly basically the same IMO: so paying a meh winger because they are doing well playing with studs is a fool’s game.We have seen that many wingers score well with CmD or Drai

    – To some extent the same with goalies: they are only really as good as the team behind them

    Your last point might be the problem right there – stand behind the team not in front of them !

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: It’s a shame you could not see what would happen when you don’t back up your work on the computer..

    I thought it was backed up by being mailed to himself and burying it under his porch?

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Does the GA have a big jump too?

    GA/60 WoodWOWY

    Elite
    97 only 4.11
    6 only 2.57
    Both On 1.53
    Both Off 2.10

    Middle
    97 only 2.38
    6 only 2.29
    Both On 6.03
    Both Off 2.34

    Gritensity
    97 only 5.67
    6 only 2.64
    Both On 5.81
    Both off 3.84

    Goals rates in micro samples eh?

  162. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Neal is in the same boat as Kassian and Chiasson: in that if they don’t play with skill players, they don’t score and are over-paid.

    It’s funny, you’re doing a pretty good job describing Nuge here too. Draisaitl as well for that matter.

  163. jp says:

    godot10: A term of four years will take Bear to unrestricted free agency. Bear’s contract 99% for certain will NOT be for four years.

    As 99% certain as Nurse’s?

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record, I know that Mr. The Bear is right about goals against.

    Pre-puck movement, rush shots etc play a huge part in SH% and goals.

    SportlogIQ data and visual tracking (what The Bear does and Valliquette’s company) are bringing this along for those who have access to the data, actually do something with it, and see what is repeatable and what isn’t.

    I don’t have access to this data (but get peaks at it from time to time) and am fine with sussing out sussing out play from the NHL data as we can do quite a bit with it.

    I’m happy with that.

  165. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Why is the GA/60 so high against with 97 only and together? OTF shifts where the gritts are coming on and 97/6 are at the end of shifts?

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    The problem with Tatar or Palmeri or whomever is you acquire them, put them on McDavids wing and now have to pay them more because they get 20 extra points. Im not sure whats a better alternative though. Teams dont generally move players under contract unless they are underperforming. Maybe get the Sabres to eat 3 mill of Skinner? Sure we’d all like Ehlers but cant see why the Jets would move him. Gaudreau? Ha.

    I’ve been saying for over a month now the Oilers should move Larsson for a 2020 1st Larsson isnt that good and Bouchard isnt gonna get a long playoff run with the Condors. Bringing him up wouldnt be the worst. Load up for expansion and make it the last time they “sell” for a decade.

    My issue with trading for any player with one year of term left and then UFA is that I don’t want to re-sign any player for his UFA contract which will be for decline years at substantial money.

    A pure rental will be cheaper than a similar player with one year of term left (presumably).

    We’ve already signed the likes of Kass for presumed deline years and I’m not in to re-signing any acquired players for the same.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: Big minutes of brutal evga/60

    What fantasy land are you in.

    Seriously educate yourself and look at the GAA for the 4 games won in every series win
    In the last decade from Cup champs.

    Here is a hint.
    Better be 2.00 GAA or better in most.

    Nurse – Bear 3.43 evga/60 That is not a fucking Chsmpionship Dpair.

    They are a Def nightmare.

    I was going to present EVGA/60 positive with +/- 1 STD deviation and median.

    But had to respond to this uneducated non scientific Point of view!

    Man its pretnecious when you tell others to educate themselves.

    Maybe educate yourself on:

    – goal differential being more important that pure Goals Again
    – quality of competition and linemates being factors in GF/GA/GF%
    – individual contributions to scoring chances (for and against) – see CoH
    – etc.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I will be happy with the Nurse deal is it leads to a Larsson for Kappenen deal later this week.

    Call up Pearson to cover and have Russell as 7D. Bouchard can be a rookie PK’esq black Ace in the playoffs. When the years of service rules no longer matter.

    Larsson is the hairy arsed type defender that you like in the playoffs, but I have long posited that the Oilers do not have the goal tending for a long playoff run, so best bloody the troops you plan to have long term.

    For those who answer, but ‘Mike Smith’ was good in the playoffs last year, do you – in your heart of hearts – believe Mr. Smith would of shut the door in the third period against Calgary? That was the closest the Oilers have come to a playoff game in a while, but despite the lead and Oilers excellent play I for one was nervous about Smith letting Calgary back in the game before he got kicked out.

    The 10 game rule for slide applies to regular season and playoff games.

  169. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I thought it was backed up by being mailed to himself and burying it under his porch?

    Damn it.. you’re right.

    Excuse me.. i need to find my label maker and a mirror.

  170. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record, I know that Mr. The Bear is right about goals against.

    Pre-puck movement, rush shots etc play a huge part in SH% and goals.

    SportlogIQ data and visual tracking (what The Bear does and Valliquette’s company) are bringing this along for those who have access to the data, actually do something with it, and see what is repeatable and what isn’t.

    I don’t have access to this data (but get peaks at it from time to time) and am fine with sussing out sussing out play from the NHL data as we can do quite a bit with it.

    I’m happy with that.

    There are two big pieces of data missing from Sportlogiq’s datasets. Both are key.

    –Positioning and movement of players other than the puck carrier on the ice.

    –Stick position.

    I believe the first missing dataset is coming, possibly as early as this season’s playoffs. It will have huge impact on their analyses when it arrives.

    The second dataset is a long ways away, if ever.

  171. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Holland’s two priorities right now should be:
    1. Make playoffs
    2. Purge stale cap

    Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the chances of the Oilers actually winning the Cup are Buckley’s.

    If a vet player isn’t getting the job done and losing battles regularly, is it ‘worse’ to have a green player in that role? At least the future is served.

    I believe Holland likes experienced players not because they don’t make mistakes, but because they have a pro’s work ethic and discipline around the effort needed.

    I think that matters less as the season winds down and everyone can find motivation and discipline for a few weeks.

    There is also enough time left, and that Connor and Leo want to win more than anything else, to make a few shocking deals if they present.

    Risky perhaps but if anyone wants K Russell, Larsson, Chiasson or Neal I’d do it. Or even if Chiasson or Neal are forced on the other team in the deal.

    The reality is now that few players with suspect boots will stay in the league, the second purge after puck phobic pugilists.

    I don’t think the team would miss any of them at this point, and perhaps the returns may include someone who does help. Of course the ugly contracts aren’t likely deadline deals, but if anyone’s asking Grinder…..

  172. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    *pretentious

  173. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    FWIW, I’d already commented to the same effect, about twenty minutes after he posted. So clearly you saw that, yes?

  174. who says:

    YKOil:
    Just playing the role of dungbeetle here (i.e. rolling it around) but every now and then

    … Victor Rask in Minny, what would need to be added to Neal to make that trade happen?Both buyouts (for us) in the off-season but one costs less and is over much more quickly.

    Minny is looking at a bit of a rebuild whether they know it or not.I really like Joel Erickson Ek, too bad they do to.

    If I trade Larsson to get my winger… can I pry DeMelo out of Ottawa?That’s a win I think.

    Thinking of Ottawa, if the deal was Connor Brown, a signed JG Pageau and they take back Neal… is that worth the 1st rounder and Pulju?I lean to ‘yes’ if it the 2021 1st.Even if I have to retain $500-750k.

    Best deal out of Ottawa has to be Ennis.Ennis, at $800k will be popular.

    Still with Ottawa, how about Bobby Ryan?Buyout is more expensive in year 1 and 2 but its a little cheaper in years 3 and 4 AND there is no year 5 and 6.

    Sticking with the buy-out theme – doesn’t a Neal for Abdelkader deal make a ton of sense?Less money year-to-year regardless and if I do buy him out I save a little in year 1, pay a little more in years 2-3 and then save a whack in years 4-6.What does my good friend Stevie Y want for Abdelkader in a Neal for Abdelkader swap?

    Stevie is facing a long rebuild after all.Any extra asset is a good extra asset.

    And that is all for now.

    If Holland adds at the deadline I prefer it to be a cheap rental of an expiring contract. No more than a 3rd round pick.
    Something like Ennis for a 4th would be nice. Maybe Galchenyuk if Pittsburgh needs to clear some salary.
    I think guys with 1 year remaining are too expensive. Would rather wait till summer and make a hockey trade for someone with more years of team control.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: There are two big pieces of data missing from Sportlogiq’s dataset.Both are key.

    –Positioning and movement of players other than the puck carrier on the ice.

    –Stick position.

    I believe the first missing dataset is coming, possible as early as the playoffs.It will have huge impact on their analysis when it arrives.

    The second dataset is a long ways away, if ever.

    Interesting.

    Where did you hear/how do you know that.

    It’s my information that they have non-puck carrier position info.

  176. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Largely agree. While it’s likely Chiasson’s value will be more apparent in the playoffs, how much of a drop off will there really be to that of (say) Currie? The cap savings are the largest benefit, both now and going forward.

    KRusty can be replaced by Wild Bill (or Jones) right now… and that’s just more gravy for next year.

    Larsson is the one I’m a little more hesitant to part ways from just yet. I’d give him one more year, one where he’s hopefully not playing catch up after recovering from a broken leg. Unless the return was handsome.

    Neal would be nice to see replaced with someone younger, faster and better away from the puck (bonus for special teams skills). Even if his replacement only scored half as much while being on the positive side of the GF-GA ledger, and (crucially) cost less that would be a clear win. I’d prefer to avoid buyouts (don’t like the dead cap hit) but if his replacement was a less painful buyout that would be handy dandy as well in the case of not being a roster fit.

  177. Oil2Oilers says:

    I thank you both, I was not aware that playoff games counted for anything but glory.

    OP enjoy the football, everyone I have met that have seen a game there say it is epic.

  178. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: pretnecious

    “pretentious”

    No need to thank me.

  179. Bank Shot says:

    The weird thing about Larsson vs Benning is that when you look at the rates, Larsson is better at everything at least according to natural stattrick.

    Adam has a better corsi/60, fenwick/60, shots/60, scf/60, and also HDcf/60. All of these are FOR stats. The offence half of the stats.

    The only place Benning has him beat are results and shooting percentage.

    So which is more important? The underlying numbers or the results?

    If you go with results, then what is the point in even looking at all the different metrics that people have developed over the years?

  180. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    From the Columbus Conference YouTube presentation.

    Sounded like it was what they’ve been waiting for… although it won’t revolutionize anything immediately as there won’t be any old data… they’re going to be starting from square one.

  181. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    From the Columbus Conference YouTube presentation.

    Sounded like it was what they’ve been waiting for… although it won’t revolutionize anything immediately as there won’t be any old data… they’re going to be starting from square one.

    That’s okay, it just means we have two universes for the next five years and then we can get on to the new road and start making better arguments.

  182. jtblack says:

    Zucker to PITT.

    For Galenchuk, 1st Rounder & Calen Addison (Leth Hurricanes prospect)

  183. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    – I had to reread your comment and my post. I see what you did there! Haha

  184. Munny says:

    Lowetide: That’s okay, it just means we have two universes for the next five years and then we can get on to the new road and start making better arguments.

    Yeah, they did say it could take as long as five years to have a handle on the new data, what it was telling them and what could be done with it.

    Terribly exciting though. I think there was some hope it would be publicly available, can’t remember exactly. All of the speakers I managed to get through (its 8 hours long) were heavily in favour of data being public because doing so has to this point led to strong innovation.

  185. Harpers Hair says:

    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

  186. Munny says:

    jtblack:
    Zucker to PITT.

    For Galenchuk, 1st Rounder & Calen Addison (Leth Hurricanes prospect)

    *crosses Zucker’s name off foolscap*

  187. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

    According to the BobFather, the two assets you’re calling a “bag of pucks” were the real sticking point in the deal, but the Pens decided to do it based on the Geno/Croz window not being open for much longer.

  188. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: a bag of pucks.

    come on HH. you think a 1st and Addison are a bag of pucks?

    The reason Pitt could move Addison was because Marino was playing so well at RHD

  189. jtblack says:

    Here’s a draft for the Ages.  Let’s revisit the 2012 draft shall we.

    #1 – NAIL YAKUPOV
    #2 – RYAN MURRAY
    #3 – ALEX GALCHENYUK
    #4 – GRIFFIN REINHART

    ok then …….

  190. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Buyouts should be a last resort.

    Like the guy who traded a paper clip and turned it into a house or whatever, I’d pump Neal especially and hope he became attractive to a team that can use what he’s good at.

    Trading and seeing is better than buying out. It is not realistically a Cup year, and making playoffs is important, but there is still a window for being aggressive in purging cap and meeting org goals.

  191. jtblack says:

    Munny: *crosses Zucker’s name off foolscap*

    This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

  192. Scungilli Slushy says:

    All about a good time at the Tide!

    Except when in trouble from our host.@

  193. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Here’s a draft for the Ages. Let’s revisit the 2012 draft shall we.

    #1 – NAIL YAKUPOV
    #2 – RYAN MURRAY
    #3 – ALEX GALCHENYUK
    #4 – GRIFFIN REINHART

    ok then …….

    Yak is a bust, but there was no savant move at where they were in that draft. Other than seeing it and trading down. The org didn’t have it in them at that time.@

  194. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jp: It’s funny, you’re doing a pretty good job describing Nuge here too. Draisaitl as well for that matter.

    – Drai has gone from overpaid guy who had a playoff heater that needs McD to now doing better with RNH than he was with CMD (albeit against 2nd line vs 1st line when with CMD) and hopefully next year he can be a C that doesn’t need another top3 player on his line.

    – Drai is really benefiting from playing with skill and getting better YoY.

    – By the way I’m pumped. On a plane and going to play TPC Sawgrass tmrw. (The course with the iconic Island Green 17th). Pretty sweet as it’s the last few days it’s open before they close it fornthe Players.

    – Buddies have bet on whether I get a GIR. Haven’t played since New Years but will be hitting lots of 129 yard wedges on the range. I say I hit the green. One way or the other lots of beers will be consumed post round and also back home for the bets: whether I hit the green or splash it.

    – Nuges best scoring years have been playing alongside Drai and McD.

  195. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

    It’s going to put them back big time if they don’t win the Cup.

    Risky

  196. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Which is too bad. I really wanted Dumba over Murray.

  197. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

    If not now…when?

  198. Munny says:

    jtblack: This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

    Nope that wouldn’t work either.

    DSF has it wrong… the “bag of pucks” in the deal was Galchenyuk. Who was essentially being moved for salary, contract number limit, and to temporarily fill the roster hole.

    Our comp there is Neal and he makes considerably more than G-Chuck, plus has considerably more term.

  199. Side says:

    One less sniffer around Tatar now.

  200. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

    Overpaid IMO. I’m glad Grinder didn’t.

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