Getting Ready for Summer Business

Ken Holland is signing contracts at a rapid clip lately, getting Caleb Jones, Zack Kassian and now Darnell Nurse sewn up for the future. The details of the Nurse contract are unique in my opinion, I wrote about it for The Athletic this morning.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers reportedly finalizing short-term deal for Darnell Nurse to free up cap space for summer
  • New Lowetide:  The Oilers urgently need first-shot scorers, so expect a flood of additions this summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Observations: A Connor McDavid scare, Leon Draisaitl’s back, boosting the top line and helping Zack Kassian
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a ‘long road’ to the NHL, Tyler Benson’s Oilers debut holds extra meaning
  • Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard

PROJECTED 2020-21 ROSTER

I’ve made a few moves, dealing Adam Larsson, Jesse Puljuarvi, buying out James Neal. Asterisks are estimated numbers for free agents and I’ve included the reported number for Nurse. Your mileage may vary on contracts (Bear’s number could be wildly wrong) and I have the cap at $83.5 million.

Holes remain, the right side of the defense is very young and the goalies are very old. Part of the reason I chose Mike Smith was to enrage you. I like the top two lines and the No. 3 center, and the left side of the defense should be fine. I kept Kris Russell as a swing man and because I think Larsson has more trade value.

THE 2020 DRAFT

I am preparing the next installment of draft coverage, it’ll be published next Tuesday (a week from tomorrow) as we enter into a busy period of games. It’s been a month since the last list.

Since I’m well into the piece, and can’t share it today (it is unready), thought I might share a few items. The top 10 has some changes but no new names have moved up, just a shuffle of the top group.

Tim Stuetzle and Jamie Drysdale were the big movers up the top 10, and there are three new members of the top 20 (Jack Quinn, Braden Schneider, Jake Sanderson).

The highest new addition (my list will grow from 32 to 62) is Seth Jarvis. Stay tuned!

THE EXTRA MONEY

In signing Nurse to this new deal, Ken Holland freed up (by my estimate) about $1 million in cap room this and next year. That’s a significant amount. How will Ken Holland use it? I’ve given my opinion above, acquiring a winger with a year left isn’t ideal but free agency is going to be spendy and a trade of assets (especially on defense) might be a better way. I’m looking forward to reading your ideas in the comments section.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the week, TSN1260. Guests include Ben Gretch from CBS Sports who will give the latest on the Expos-Rays ‘shared team’ idea that appears to be closer to a reality. Jason Gregor will pop by with opinion on Darnell Nurse, the big Saturday win over Nashville. We’re also casting about for an XFL guest, just in case you want some crazy. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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302 Responses to "Getting Ready for Summer Business"

« Older Comments
  1. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    The paperclip –> house is exactly what I’m on about.

    We already got ourselves a calculator from a paperclip, so why not try for a laptop and see what happens next?

    Worst case Ontario, we buy out the new JAG for less of an overall penalty.

  2. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Overpaid IMO. I’m glad Grinder didn’t.

    Yep.
    Another season of wishing and hoping is a much better strategy.
    Tick tock.

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Absolutely. It would be a hard move but pandering to the fan base if you know what you’re doing should not be entertained.

    Can’t be a legend if you don’t go against the grain.

  4. Munny says:

    Side:
    One less sniffer around Tatar now.

    I don’t think Tatar is going anywhere unless someone wants to hand MB a huge overpay.

    MTL is not in re-build mode.

    And Tatar reputedly loves it there. Good chance he re-ups early, some time this summer.

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep.
    Another season of wishing and hoping is a much better strategy.
    Tick tock.

    Hope is more Important than wishing.

    You’re cagey guy, don’t you use timing in your decision making?

    Grinder should.

  6. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep.
    Another season of wishing and hoping is a much better strategy.
    Tick tock.

    Are you fully prepared for the marathon you have in front of you?

    I’m going to bet that at least 90 percent of the deadline deals don’t involve the Oilers. Likely more.

    That’s a lot of work you have ahead of you. Hydrate well.

  7. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It’s going to put them back big time if they don’t win the Cup.

    Risky

    don’t you think their window is small with Croz and Malkin??

    I give the GM credit for pushing the chips in …

  8. pts2pndr says:

    I think that will be one of the options considered if Nurse isn’t moved this off season. They need one year of Bouchard to see if he can be the power play QB before they move Klefbom. Of it was my choice to make I would take a hard look at what you are saying. I believe Toronto and Winnipeg being the most likely suitors for Nurse.

  9. Munny says:

    Danault hurt and out for the remainder of the game per LeBrun

  10. Munny says:

    Agreed on both statements

  11. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: If not now…when?

    IMO, I think as soon as next year … need a deeper roster before you start lobbing 1st and 2nd rounders to teams .. BUT …. I have many thoughts on this topic but in a nutshell ..

    Washington model. – Keep your 1st round picks and just keep building around your core. 

    Pitt model. – always go all in and build through drafting, FA and astute trades …

    Not sure which way is best?  a Hybrid?

  12. Nit64 says:

    ~ 2nd dataset is easy. They need to check if the stick is positioned in Leon’s hands or Sam’s. ~

  13. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: If not now…when?

    Well, let’s see if we can think back and figure out at what point in the season the JT Miller trade was made… We haven’t discussed him much on this site, but surely there’s someone here who can clarify the timing of the deal?

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

    Huh? In Edmonton terms its like Gagner, Samorukov and a conditional 2020 1st (becomes a 2021 if we miss the playoffs).

  15. pts2pndr says:

    I think he would consider it very carefully. It would give him financial security. I think it would be a fair deal given there is risk on both sides.

  16. Munny says:

    Forgot bout Gags… I think Minny would much rather test drive Galchenyuk over Gagner (but that’s closer than my Neal suggestion above).

    As an aside: GM JR and the Wild have been working on the deal for Zucker since last summer (if not longer).

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: IMO, I think as soon as next year … need a deeper roster before you start lobbing 1st and 2nd rounders to teams ..BUT …. I have many thoughts on this topic but in a nutshell ..

    Washington model. – Keep your 1st round picks and just keep building around your core.

    Pitt model. – always go all in and build through drafting, FA and astute trades …

    Not sure which way is best? a Hybrid?

    Sitting on your ass(ests) and hoping for better doesn’t generally work.
    You’re either in or youre out.

  18. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: Huh? In Edmonton terms its like Gagner, Samorukov and a conditional 2020 1st (becomes a 2021 if we miss the playoffs).

    hahaha. I did overshoot that for sure ..my bad ….

  19. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: Sitting on your ass(ests) and hoping for better doesn’tgenerally work.
    You’re either in or youre out.

    Revisit the Caps model and then tell me if that’s true …

    You can still make trades and be a GM ..you just don’t throw 1st’s and high prospects at every trade deadline …

  20. godot10 says:

    Munny: Yeah, they did say it could take as long as five years to have a handle on the new data, what it was telling them and what could be done with it.

    Terribly exciting though.I think there was some hope it would be publicly available, can’t remember exactly.All of the speakers I managed to get through (its 8 hours long) were heavily in favour of data being public because doing so has to this point led to strong innovation.

    Public also identifies the talent for the NHL to hire. Rather than listening con men and snake oil salesmen with their pitches that their black box is better than the other guys.

  21. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

    Zucker is too old for the Oilers to give up a 1st. Miller was just entering his prime, but Holland didn’t know if McDavid would be playing, so he couldn’t and it would have been pointless to get in a bidding war with Vancouver.

    Miller >> Zucker

    Until the McDavid video reveal on his rehab, we didn’t understand why Holland played small ball rather than try for a three run Homer.

  22. Munny says:

    They made that point too. However not in the melodramatic terms you’ve used. Pretty sure they would hire a recent Math PhD with knowledge of the sport over a snake oil salesman.

    They also made the point that coaches are incredibly smart and can find a hole in a stats argument in an eyeblink, and thus when approaching the coaching staff with thoughts, you’d better have your ducks in a row first.

    A snake oil salesman would be sniffed out in his first month of work, if not already identified in the interview process.

  23. jtblack says:

    Yotes win …. keep the cluster tight …..

  24. Munny says:

    Kurt Leavins‏ @KurtLeavins · 3m3 minutes ago

    When you see the price paid for Jason Zucker (perfectly good, Top-6 player) you can see why the #Oilers would not have been in on that game.

  25. jp says:

    Bank Shot:
    The weird thing about Larsson vs Benning is that when you look at the rates, Larsson is better at everything at least according to natural stattrick.

    Adam has a better corsi/60, fenwick/60, shots/60, scf/60, and also HDcf/60.All of these are FOR stats. The offence half of the stats.

    The only place Benning has him beat are results and shooting percentage.

    So which is more important? The underlying numbers or the results?

    If you go with results, then what is the point in even looking at all the different metrics that people have developed over the years?

    The idea is that the underlying metrics are better predictors of future results than current results themselves. It doesn’t always work that way but it does in a lot of cases.

  26. godot10 says:

    Munny:
    They made that point too. However not in the melodramatic terms you’ve used.Pretty sure they would hire a recent Math PhD with knowledge of the sport over a snake oil salesman.

    They also made the point that coaches are icredibly smart and can find a hole in an argument in an instant, and thus when approaching the coaching staff with thoughts, you’d better have your ducks in a row first.

    A snake oil salesman would be sniffed out in his first month of work, if not already identified in the interview process.

    Allegedly a snake oil salesmen sold Chiarelli on signing Russell for four years…and it was one of the so-called name brand black boxes.

  27. Dr. Taboggan says:

    godot10: Zucker is too old for the Oilers to give up a 1st.Miller was just entering his prime

    Zucker and Miller are only 1 year and 2 months apart.

  28. Yeti says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Seriously, canter you just stop it?

  29. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Hay!

    I thought these jokes had been put out to pasture by now.

  30. SVR says:

    jtblack:
    Yotes win ….keep the cluster tight …..

    If Calgary wins an Vancouver loses, top five in Pacific will all be within 2 points of each other. Amazing.

  31. godot10 says:

    Dr. Taboggan: Zucker and Miller are only 1 year and 2 months apart.

    Miller is a far superior player and one would be getting 100% of his prime years vs. a lesser more one dimensional player and 70% of his prime years.

    Miller >> Zucker

  32. Munny says:

    Yeah, probably had nothing to do with the entire year of viewing his play in Oiler silks prior to the signing.

    “Allegedly”… lol.

  33. pts2pndr says:

    You missed the conditional first.

  34. Harpers Hair says:

    Zuckers goal share in the last four seasons is 53%
    A late first round pick might get there in 3-5 years…or never.

  35. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Zuckers goal share in the last four seasons is 53%
    A late first round pick might get there in 3-5 years…or never.

    galchenyuk is 48 pts/ 82 over his career with 1 – 30 Goal season. He’s 25. Obviously very inconsistent. Who would the Oilers have given up that is simliar? It’s not NEAL or SAMWISE …

    Late 1st – you are correct. complete wild card.

    Aiddison is better than prob most think. He became Canada’s #1 D man at World Juniors. Game is similiar to Bear’s; laser passing, Good O and decent D …

    Pitt gave up a lot. and Zucker is very Good. WIN – WIN

    Zucker has been taking passes from Mikko Koivu for 5 years. He prob will fair better with Malkin and Croz driving the play ..

  36. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: galchenyuk is 48 pts/ 82 over his career with 1 – 30 Goal season. He’s 25. Obviously very inconsistent.Who would the Oilers have given up that is simliar?It’s not NEAL or SAMWISE …

    Late 1st – you are correct. complete wild card.

    Aiddison is better than prob most think.He became Canada’s #1 D man at World Juniors.Game is similiar to Bear’s; laser passing, Good O and decent D …

    Pitt gave up a lot.and Zucker is very Good. WIN – WIN

    Zucker has been taking passes from Mikko Koivu for 5 years.He prob will fair better with Malking and Croz driving the play ..

    How do you think he would do taking passes from McDavid and Draisaitl?

  37. Material Elvis says:

    I think RB understands the alternative spelling better.

  38. flyfish1168 says:

    John Marino’s rights were acquired by the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for a sixth round pick from, us. I wish the could have asked for conditions like total points or average minutes play and moved 6th round pick to a 3rd round. Sure looks like a steal by the penguins.

  39. Material Elvis says:

    Or earlier. And potentially better.

  40. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: How do you think he would do taking passes from McDavid and Draisaitl?

    Considering he has a NTC, and a wife who refuses to live in Canada due to custody issues from a prior relationship, how would you have proposed the Oilers execute a deal for Zucker?

  41. jp says:

    Enjoy the Sawgrass, sounds like it will be a time!

  42. jtblack says:

    I think he could play 1 LW with McD for the next 2 – 4 years and flourish.

    Always been a Zucker fan. He played with my Bro in Law in Vegas.

    He’s the exact type of player I hope Ken can get at the draft or this summer (and yes, like Miller acquisition). Prices at the desdline are usually inflated

    My checklist for said player
    – proven Top 6 player
    – Not older than 29
    -Term remaining or can be signed

    See if Ken can deliver

  43. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

    What a stupid take.

  44. Munny says:

    According to Twitter today, apparently we tried to grind the Pens for more.

    Pens held the aces though, because with no deal, Marino would’ve walked and we would’ve ended up with nothing.

  45. Bank Shot says:

    Hopefully one of Calgary or Vancouver blows the lead tonight. Need some space at the top of the division.

  46. jtblack says:

    NEAL 19 GOALS
    LUCIC 6 GOALS

    In order for 3rd to go to CGY, Neal has to score min 21 Goals AND score at least 10 more than Lucic.

    So it’s not a given that Edm will lose their 3rd rounder; and it looked that way in Oct / Nov.

  47. leadfarmer says:

    Zucker is a player I really like
    But he already refused a trade to Calgary
    And DSF is peeing on the rug again

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ya

    jtblack: This is true. I like Zucker and wanted him badly …

    but I think the equivalent to that deal for the Oilers would have been JP, 1st & Lavoie … WAAAAY TOOOO RICH for Oilers …NOt our time just yet ..

    The equivalent would be more like the 1st, JP and Russell. Galchenyuk has negative trade value right now. He’s been playing less than fourth line minutes. In fact, Russell would have more trade value than Galchenyuk.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Good move by Pens
    But they will be were Detroit is in a few years

  50. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny: Nope that wouldn’t work either.

    DSF has it wrong… the “bag of pucks” in the deal was Galchenyuk.Who was essentially being moved for salary, contract number limit, and to temporarily fill the roster hole.

    Our comp there is Neal and he makes considerably more than G-Chuck, plus has considerably more term.

    Neal not a good comp. Has too many years on his deal.

  51. jp says:

    godot10:
    Miller >> Zucker

    Miller > Zucker and
    Miller is younger than Zucker and
    VCR gave up less than PITT for Zucker

    Zucker would be a great add but I’m not sure that was a price the Oilers should ever pay.

  52. Bank Shot says:

    leadfarmer:
    Good move by Pens
    But they will be were Detroit is in a few years

    I’d take that. Makes sense for them to trade their futures. They probably have about 5 years left of Croby/Malkin being elite players. Might as well make the most of it.

    They have already had a great run and a few years of pain at the end of a 20 year run would be easy to stomach.

  53. Munny says:

    Lol… almost like I said that myself…

  54. leadfarmer says:

    jp: Miller > Zucker and
    Miller is younger than Zucker and
    The VCR gave up less than PITT for Zucker

    Zucker would be a great add but I’m not sure that was a price the Oilers should ever pay.

    Yeah Zucker would be a great add and I’m a big fan of the player
    But they gave up their top prospect and their first rounder plus Galchenyuk who the wild get to test drive
    This is a very good haul for the Wild who needed to get cap space for a center man and Fiala took Zuckers spot as top LW pivot

  55. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: But he already refused a trade to Calgary

    He actually couldn’t have. He did not have an NTC till this past summer.

    The deal fell through due to other reasons, although circuitously that could’ve been something along the lines of “I won’t report there” to Fenton’s office. We don’t know though, other than the Flames Mgmt were angry at whatever had transpired.

  56. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Zuckers goal share in the last four seasons is 53%
    A late first round pick might get there in 3-5 years…or never.

    Completely true.

    At least you’re acknowledging the Oilers will be picking late first round.

  57. jp says:

    I’m annoyed with myself for enjoying this.

  58. flyfish1168 says:

    Not many 6th round pick will do so well. Just hope we can repeat

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Sitting on your ass(ests) and hoping for better doesn’tgenerally work.
    You’re either in or youre out.

    I agree with you here. I don’t know how people think we’re getting a player for McDavid. Lavoie is the most realistic internal option and he’s three years away, if ever. Holland has to make a trade. Maybe he can swing something for a second rounder, but doing nothing is worse than trading the first rounder.

    By the way, Jason Zucker is 18 months older than JT Miller. He’s scored 142 goals in 456 games. Miller has scored 116 goals in 491. Not sure how PP production impacts the numbers for either player.

  60. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: Revisit the Caps model and then tell me if that’s true …

    You can still make trades and be a GM ..you just don’t throw 1st’s and high prospects at every trade deadline …

    Zucker has three years left on his deal at 5.5. This is a hockey deal, not a rental.

  61. jp says:

    Bank Shot:
    Hopefully one of Calgary or Vancouver blows the lead tonight. Need some space at the top of the division.

    Ya. At least the Preds are being pushed further down…

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Zucker is too old for the Oilers to give up a 1st.Miller was just entering his prime, but Holland didn’t know if McDavid would be playing, so he couldn’t and it would have been pointless to get in a bidding war with Vancouver.

    Miller >> Zucker

    Until the McDavid video reveal on his rehab, we didn’t understand why Holland played small ball rather than try for a three run Homer.

    Zucker is 18 months older and has scored more goals in fewer games.

  63. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree with you here. I don’t know how people think we’re getting a player for McDavid. Lavoie is the most realistic internal option and he’s three years away, if ever.Holland has to make a trade. Maybe he can swing something for a second rounder, but doing nothing is worse than trading the first rounder.

    I agree Holland needs to get McDavid a winger but it doesn’t HAVE to be a trade. And in particular not necessarily one in the Miller/Zucker ilk.

    There’s free agents available at various price points as well as shorter term trade fixes like Tatar or Palmieri.

    There’s a lot of options between doing nothing and overpaying (IMO) for a very nice player (Zucker).

  64. slopitch says:

    Dont have to no. But we saw with Kassian its posssible ?

  65. Munny says:

    jp: I agree Holland needs to get McDavid a winger but it doesn’t HAVE to be a trade. And in particular not necessarily one in the Miller/Zucker ilk.

    There’s free agents available at various price points as well as shorter term trade fixes like Tatar or Palmieri.

    There’s a lot of options between doing nothing and overpaying (IMO) for a very nice player (Zucker).

    Agree with the above and would add that making such a big trade is usually more cost-effective in the summer than at the trade deadline.

    JT Miller—to pull out a name completely at random—wasn’t traded at the deadline.

    Tough to get a good deal on a big-time player with term during deadline frenzy.

  66. Munny says:

    Beautiful. Simply beautiful.

  67. Munny says:

    I’m hoping that tomorrow night the Oilers remember their first game against the Hawks this season.

  68. Bank Shot says:

    Zero OOT scoreboard help tonight.

  69. jp says:

    Munny: Agree with the above and would add that making such a big trade is usually more cost-effective in the summer than at the trade deadline.

    JT Miller—to pull out a name completely at random—wasn’t traded at the deadline.

    Tough to get a good deal on a big-time player with term during deadline frenzy.

    For sure, and I’ll add again that your completely random example, JT Miller, worked out literally as well as he could have for the Canucks (a ~50 point player instantly becomes a PPG player. Ie, not the expected outcome).

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: I agree Holland needs to get McDavid a winger but it doesn’t HAVE to be a trade. And in particular not necessarily one in the Miller/Zucker ilk.

    There’s free agents available at various price points as well as shorter term trade fixes like Tatar or Palmieri.

    There’s a lot of options between doing nothing and overpaying (IMO) for a very nice player (Zucker).

    Free agents rarely solve problems. They’re more likely to create problems. Would love to get someone like Burakovsky for two second rounders, but I think doing nothing is worse than trading a first rounder. Zucker’s three years are a big damn deal. Maybe there’s a better deal out there, but I have no issue with the cost for Zucker. I guess what I really object to is the notion that a first rounder is out of the question for a player with term.

  71. godot10 says:

    Vancouver beating Nashville in a two point game is OOT scoreboard help.

    The OIlers want Nashville, Minnesota, and Chicago to give up, which would make it nine teams fighting for eight spots.

    2nd or 3rd in the Pacific, arguably is preferable to 1st.

  72. Munny says:

    It’s getting close to the end of the day and I feel the same way as I did at the beginning of it…

    If we’re going big game hunting, and I don’t think we are, my target is Kapanen.

    TO is capstrung. Has needs. And he’s a flake. I think he could be obtained without the requisite overpay. He’s certainly a player I’d make a phone call on.

    I’m guessing that Kenny is still in small-ball mode, but will try to get better than a rental if he can.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    FWIW, I’d already commented to the same effect, about twenty minutes after he posted.So clearly you saw that, yes?

    FWIW, nope.

    I read a post and respond to it after I read it if I feel the desire. I don’t search through the rest of the comments before I respond.

    Sorry if that bothers you.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Zucker to the Penguins for Galcheyuk and a bag of pucks.

    Oilers make a grievous error.

    Callen Addison and a 1st – HUGE RETURN.

    Oilers made no such grievous error – that is a massive haul by MIN and huge price to pay by the Penguins.

    I am confidant most Oiler fans would NOT be happy with given away those two major assets.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Zucker would be a nice add to this team, for the now and the next few years.

    I don’t know his exact stats and metrics but I think the contract is very reasonable.

    It’s a hockey trade and not just a pure rental so the assets out, although very material, may be reasonable acquisition value.

    At the same time, the Oilers are not in the position to trade a massive value 1st round pick and a top prospect at this time. They are still building that asset base and they 1st is a key piece.

    Those are two massive expansion draft exempt assets out.

    PIT is a legit contender on the middle of their window – this is a trade to help out them over the top immediately.

    PIT will be in big big trouble on 3 years or so (unless they sell big time at the close of their window).

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: I’d take that. Makes sense for them to trade their futures. They probably have about 5 years left of Croby/Malkin being elite players. Might as well make the most of it.

    They have already had a great run and a few years of pain at the end of a 20 year run would be easy to stomach.

    A few years of pain… wherein they draft generational talents in consecutive drafts, and the cycle starts all over again.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    From the Columbus Conference YouTube presentation.

    Sounded like it was what they’ve been waiting for… although it won’t revolutionize anything immediately as there won’t be any old data… they’re going to be starting from square one.

    Thanks for that.

  78. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: Free agents rarely solve problems. They’re more likely to create problems. Would love to get someone like Burakovsky for two second rounders, but I think doing nothing is worse than trading a first rounder. Zucker’s three years are a big damn deal. Maybe there’s a better deal out there, but I have no issue with the cost for Zucker. I guess what I really object to is the notion that a first rounder is out of the question for a player with term.

    Fair enough that you’d keep the 1st rounder on the table for a player with term. I suspect Holland does too for the right, though he’s not overly likely to pull the trigger.

    You say free agents rarely solve problems which I can understand. Lots of times they don’t work out, but there are also guys like Connolly who look like great bets at reasonable prices. Compare say Kreider as a UFA this summer for the Oilers to Zucker and the trade the Penguins just pulled off. The players are fairly comparable in age/performance/value. As a UFA Kreider is going to cost (say) $1.5M more per year than Zucker. Is having Zucker for 3.5 yrs and $1.5M or $2M less than Kreider (on a 4-5 year deal) worth the extra assets given up (1st round pick, top prospect, struggling, skilled 25 year old forward)? I’d say not in this case but you needn’t agree.

    And I agree a trade like for Burakovsky would be great too, but they don’t always work out like that. You don’t get guarantees of a young controlled 2nd line forward for 2 2nds. Burakovsky looks like he’s going to score 25 goals and 60 points with his new team but he’d never managed 20 goals or 40 points before this. His performance this year wasn’t a given, and that was reflected in the price tag.

  79. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: A few years of pain… wherein they draft generational talents in consecutive drafts, and the cycle starts all over again.

    BUT WHAT IF IT TAKES 10 YEARS?!?!

    OR MORE!?!??

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Good move by Pens
    But they will be were Detroit is in a few years

    Flags fly forever and they’re playing very well this year.

    Not going all in while Crosby and Malkin can still dominate is a crime.

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: galchenyuk is 48 pts/ 82 over his career with 1 – 30 Goal season. He’s 25. Obviously very inconsistent. Who would the Oilers have given up that is simliar? It’s not NEAL or SAMWISE …

    Galchenyuk
    2017-18: 0.46 G/60 … 1.39 P/60
    2018-19: 0.63 G/60 … 1.26 P/60
    2019-20: 0.41 G/60 … 1.51 P/60
    3-year total: 0.52 G/60 … 1.37 P/60 (2326:51 TOI)

    Gagner
    2017-18: 0.39 G/60 … 1.04 P/60
    2018-19: 0.59 G/60 … 1.62 P/60
    2019-20: 0.50 G/60 … 1.49 P/60
    3-year total: 0.46 G/60 … 1.27 P/60 (1696:12 TOI)

    These players aren’t as far apart as you think. Both are overpaid, Galchenyuk moreso. Neither is good defensively, neither PK’s. Both are UFA’s in July. The only advantage Galchenyuk has is age.

  82. jp says:

    Munny:
    It’s getting close to the end of the day and I feel the same way as I did at the beginning of it…

    If we’re going big game hunting, and I don’t think we are, my target is Kapanen.

    TO is capstrung.Has needs.And he’s a flake.I think he could be obtained without the requisite overpay.He’s certainly a player I’d make a phone call on.

    I’m guessing that Kenny is still in small-ball mode, but will try to get better than a rental if he can.

    Yeah getting a long term solution at a reasonable price would be amazing. Agree that Kapanen and Toronto are a good target, and they’d seemingly be interested some of the Oilers parts like Larsson in addition to futures.

    And on Larsson btw, I think you’re likely right about this being one of the very unlikely universes. Weird weird numbers. I do think at least one of he or Russell should be moved out by the start of next season. And I think there’s a good chance Larsson’s performance rebounds…

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: BUT WHAT IF IT TAKES 10 YEARS?!?!

    OR MORE!?!??

    It could. Mario was drafted in ’84, Jagr didn’t come along until ’90.

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: If we’re going big game hunting, and I don’t think we are, my target is Kapanen.

    Is Kap really “big game” though?

  85. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Galchenyuk
    2017-18: 0.46 G/60 … 1.39 P/60
    2018-19: 0.63 G/60 … 1.26 P/60
    2019-20: 0.41 G/60 … 1.51 P/60
    3-year total: 0.52 G/60 … 1.37 P/60 (2326:51 TOI)

    Gagner
    2017-18: 0.39 G/60 … 1.04 P/60
    2018-19: 0.59 G/60 … 1.62 P/60
    2019-20: 0.50 G/60 … 1.49 P/60
    3-year total: 0.46 G/60 … 1.27 P/60 (1696:12 TOI)

    These players aren’t as far apart as you think. Both are overpaid, Galchenyuk moreso. Neither is good defensively, neither PK’s. Both are UFA’s in July. The only advantage Galchenyuk has is age.

    This is part of the record too:
    Galchenyuk 199-43-66-109
    Gagner —– 136-20-35-55

    But fair enough there’s not a chasm between the players. And Galchenyuk appears like he may be heading down the wandering path Gagner did at a similar age.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: : I agree Holland needs to get McDavid a winger but it doesn’t HAVE to be a trade. And in particular not necessarily one in the Miller/Zucker ilk.

    There’s free agents available at various price points as well as shorter term trade fixes like Tatar or Palmieri.

    There’s a lot of options between doing nothing and overpaying (IMO) for a very nice player (Zucker).

    JimmyV1965:
    Free agents rarely solve problems. They’re more likely to create problems. Would love to get someone like Burakovsky for two second rounders, but I think doing nothing is worse than trading a first rounder. Zucker’s three years are a big damn deal. Maybe there’s a better deal out there, but I have no issue with the cost for Zucker. I guess what I really object to is the notion that a first rounder is out of the question for a player with term.

    I don’t understand this idea that free agents don’t solve problems and a team is better off giving up prime assets for the same player. It makes no sense. I don’t care how a player is acquired as long as the correct player is acquired and due diligence is done prior to the acquisition. If said player can be acquired for just money, isn’t that a better outcome? Then the team isn’t emptying out it’s farm system for every new player they want to bring in.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree with you here. I don’t know how people think we’re getting a player for McDavid. Lavoie is the most realistic internal option and he’s three years away, if ever.Holland has to make a trade. Maybe he can swing something for a second rounder, but doing nothing is worse than trading the first rounder.

    By the way, Jason Zucker is 18 months older than JT Miller.He’s scored 142 goals in 456 games. Miller has scored 116 goals in 491. Not sure how PP production impacts the numbers for either player.

    Here are their 5v5 scoring rates recently…

    Zucker
    2016-17: 1.08 G/60 … 2.38 P/60
    2017-18: 1.08 G/60 … 2.10 P/60
    2018-19: 0.63 G/60 … 1.37 P/60
    3 year total: 0.93 G/60 … 1.95 P/60
    2019-20: 0.73 G/60 … 1.89 P/60

    Miller
    2016-17: 0.73 G/60 … 1.91 P/60
    2017-18: 0.54 G/60 … 1.83 P/60
    2018-19: 0.62 G/60 … 1.64 P/60
    3 year total: 0.63 G/60 … 1.80 P/60
    2019-20: 1.05 G/60 … 2.48 P/60

    Miller’s numbers are WAY off the charts this year, not sure they’ll be sustainable going forward.

  88. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jtblack:
    NEAL 19 GOALS
    LUCIC6 GOALS

    In order for 3rd to go to CGY, Neal has to score min 21 Goals AND score at least 10 more than Lucic.

    So it’s not a given that Edm will lose their 3rd rounder; and it looked that way in Oct / Nov.

    It would be a shame if Neal had to rest his foot until April

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: BUT WHAT IF IT TAKES 10 YEARS?!?!

    OR MORE!?!??

    Just to be clear, I was talking about the Pens, not the Oilers.

  90. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Just to be clear, I was talking about the Pens, not the Oilers.

    🙂

    I know, but my mind immediately went to the DoD.

  91. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: It would be a shame if Neal had to rest his foot until April

    I was thinking something similar. K. Russell too for that matter.

    But despite his surface 5on5 numbers (P/60 and GF%) I’m not sure he’s actually been playing so badly. His underlying numbers are quite good. And the man has 19 goals (I know, most on the PP).

    His corsi, shot, scoring chance, xGoal numbers are all solid. His DFF% is solid. His PDO sucks but that’s not his fault.

    If nothing else, I still feel like Neal is probably one of the 2 best options currently available (leaving the 2nd line intact) to play with Connor McDavid.

    He would ideally be replaced for sure, but right now I think he can still help this team some.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    “Anyone give any credibility to that “Mike Litorus” account on twitter? He broke the trade with LA perfectly, literally a few hours before it happened. He recently tweeted a big trade is coming because of a few players being very toxic in the room. He did not mention any names but based on recency, I’d have to guess its Kapanen?”

    From a Leafs fan on another forum. Comments?

  93. Jethro Tull says:

    Mike Hunt and Jenny Tools do a good job breaking trades. I usually can’t find Mike Litorus.

    I think the best sleeper joke was from Are You Being Served, with Mrs. Slocombe (pronounced Slow- Comm, or with a short U) and the string of jokes about her pussy…… cat.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: Fair enough that you’d keep the 1st rounder on the table for a player with term. I suspect Holland does too for the right, though he’s not overly likely to pull the trigger.

    You say free agents rarely solve problems which I can understand. Lots of times they don’t work out, but there are also guys like Connolly who look like great bets at reasonable prices. Compare say Kreider as a UFA this summer for the Oilers to Zucker and the trade the Penguins just pulled off. The players are fairly comparable in age/performance/value. As a UFA Kreider is going to cost (say) $1.5M more per year than Zucker. Is having Zucker for 3.5 yrs and $1.5M or $2M less than Kreider (on a 4-5 year deal) worth the extra assets given up (1st round pick, top prospect, struggling, skilled 25 year old forward)? I’d say not in this case but you needn’t agree.

    And I agree a trade like for Burakovsky would be great too, but they don’t always work out like that. You don’t get guarantees of a young controlled 2nd line forward for 2 2nds. Burakovsky looks like he’s going to score 25 goals and 60 points with his new team but he’d never managed 20 goals or 40 points before this. His performance this year wasn’t a given, and that was reflected in the price tag.

    The issue for Kreider won’t be the $7 mill, although he might get more. The issue will be the seven years for a player who will be 29 when the deal is signed.

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t understand this idea that free agents don’t solve problems and a team is better off giving up prime assets for the same player. It makes no sense. I don’t care how a player is acquired as long as the correct player is acquired and due diligence is done prior to the acquisition. If said player can be acquired for just money, isn’t that a better outcome? Then the team isn’t emptying out it’s farm system for every new player they want to bring in.

    Well, the example JP cited is actually a problem. Kreider will get seven years. That’s a huge issue. The Blues traded for the playoff MVP. When was the last time a team signed a free agent MVP? There is value in free agency. Just very little of it.

  96. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp: I was thinking something similar. K. Russell too for that matter.

    But despite his surface 5on5 numbers (P/60 and GF%) I’m not sure he’s actually been playing so badly. His underlying numbers are quite good. And the man has 19 goals (I know, most on the PP).

    His corsi, shot, scoring chance, xGoal numbers are all solid. His DFF% is solid. His PDO sucks but that’s not his fault.

    If nothing else, I still feel like Neal is probably one of the 2 best options currently available (leaving the 2nd line intact) to play with Connor McDavid.

    He would ideally be replaced for sure, but right now I think he can still help this team some.

    Agreed. But I was mostly referring to not losing the 3rd round draft pick!

  97. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Anyone give any credibility to that “Mike Litorus” account on twitter? He broke the trade with LA perfectly, literally a few hours before it happened. He recently tweeted a big trade is coming because of a few players being very toxic in the room. He did not mention any names but based on recency, I’d have to guess its Kapanen?”

    From a Leafs fan on another forum. Comments?

    Curious: Which LA trade? The last one or Muzzin?

  98. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Anyone give any credibility to that “Mike Litorus” account on twitter? He broke the trade with LA perfectly, literally a few hours before it happened. He recently tweeted a big trade is coming because of a few players being very toxic in the room. He did not mention any names but based on recency, I’d have to guess its Kapanen?”

    From a Leafs fan on another forum. Comments?

    My guess would be JT. I don’t think the Islanders missed him very much.

  99. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Agreed. But I was mostly referring to not losing the 3rd round draft pick!

    Ha, I’d already forgotten about the pick figuring it was gone.

  100. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: The issue for Kreider won’t be the $7 mill, although he might get more. The issue will be the seven years for a player who will be 29 when the deal is signed.

    Who says he’ll get 7 years? None of his comps got more than 4 IIRC.

  101. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: The issue for Kreider won’t be the $7 mill, although he might get more. The issue will be the seven years for a player who will be 29 when the deal is signed.

    Sure, he may want more term (and very well may get it).

    There’s tons of UFAs signing for less than 7 years these days though.

    Zuccarello for 5
    Nyquist for 4
    Eberle for 5
    Henrique for 5
    JVR for 5
    Hornqvist for 5
    Granlund for 3 (the other one)
    Tatar for 4
    Palat for 5
    Radulov for 5
    Hanzal for 3
    Bonino for 4
    Hoffman for 4

    Zucker himself just signed a 5 year extension in 2018.

    There could be a few mistakes in here (may be one RFA year included in some cases) but all these guys signed deals for more than $4M per for 3-5 yrs in the past 3 off-seasons.

    You do not HAVE to sign a UFA for 7 years. Just like you do not HAVE to trade your 1st to improve your team.

  102. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Here are their 5v5 scoring rates recently…

    Zucker
    2016-17: 1.08 G/60 … 2.38 P/60
    2017-18: 1.08 G/60 … 2.10 P/60
    2018-19: 0.63 G/60 … 1.37 P/60
    3 year total: 0.93 G/60 … 1.95 P/60
    2019-20: 0.73 G/60 … 1.89 P/60

    Miller
    2016-17: 0.73 G/60 … 1.91 P/60
    2017-18: 0.54 G/60 … 1.83 P/60
    2018-19: 0.62 G/60 … 1.64 P/60
    3 year total: 0.63 G/60 … 1.80 P/60
    2019-20: 1.05 G/60 … 2.48 P/60

    Miller’s numbers are WAY off the charts this year, not sure they’ll be sustainable going forward.

    Data without context, i.e. how they were used, in what role, and quality of opposition and teammates, is deceiving.

    Miller >> Zucker

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