Every summer we argue about needing good 12 forwards but the truth is we should spend more time in identifying 10 defensemen. Man it’s a tough position to play. If you’re ever in the woods with a buddy and get chased by a bear, pray to the heavens your friend is a former NHL defenseman. Improves the odds.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
- Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It was reactionary’: Oilers’ Zack Kassian addresses alleged kick; Lightning depth strikes; and Kailer Yamamoto’s big game
- Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Why Connor McDavid’s injury is unlikely to alter Ken Holland’s trade deadline plan for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We want to take it as a challenge’: Oilers survive first game without McDavid as room for improvement remains
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trying to make sense of Connor McDavid’s injury and Darnell Nurse’s new contract with Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Faced with uncertainty, Oilers hedge their bet on Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
OILERS AFTER 60 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 22-32-6, 50 points; goal differential -31
- Oilers in 2016-17: 32-20-8, 72 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2017-18: 25-31-4, 54 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2018-19: 25-29-6, 56 points; goal differential -24
- Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-6, 70 points; goal differential +5
Insanity that this year’s team can match the 2016-17 group but we are here. The Oilers have been good against the Bruins in recent seasons, but this game tonight features a banged up home side. Suspect the goalie is the first star if Edmonton gets a result.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Current 10 games: 6-3-0
No matter the result, this has been a fine 10-game stanza. The Oilers are 12-5-2 since that wobbly spot in the middle of the year.
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-7-0, four points; goal differential -18
- Oilers in February 2017: 5-4-0, 10 points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in February 2018: 2-6-1, five points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2019: 1-5-3, five points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +3
A strong February, coming on the heels of an impressive January, is the kind of new year the McDavid Oilers have rarely known.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 5-3-0, 10 points in eight games
The month has marched in lock step with my predictions so far, that’s breaking news. I have tonight as a loss.
OILERS 2019-20
Lagesson is a fine young defender and the organization needs to find out about him. NO ONE would wish this as a way for him to get into the lineup and it’s not certain he keeps the job for any length of time. We know Kris Russell isn’t ready to come back yet, we know Evan Bouchard is the best recall option, we know the lefties in Bakersfield are Brandon Manning, Keegan Lowe and Dmitri Samorukov.
TRADE WINDS
Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts was fascinating yesterday. Friedman heard from more than one source that Blake Coleman was the one player Edmonton was willing to deal their first-round pick for at the deadline.
Not Taylor Hall? Why Coleman? Several reasons, chief among them control. Coleman isn’t expensive and is signed for another year. Edmonton would have a chance to test him and then (one would hope) sign Coleman before free agency summer 2021.
What does he bring? A 1.85 five on five per 60 scoring number. 12.2 shots per 60 at five on five. Good possession numbers. Fantastic speed. Almost three minutes a night on the PK. And at a very reasonable price. All good. I wouldn’t trade the first-round pick in 2020 for him. Holland (based on reports) may have been contemplating the idea, although we don’t know the entirety of the deal. Maybe there were conditions on the trade that would impact things if Coleman didn’t sign an extension. He’s an exceptional deadline pickup.
Ondrej Kase, Andreas Athanasoui and Kasperi Kapanen (injured) are somewhat similar, but none of the speed/range of skills/current success offered by Coleman. I remain convinced the best targets are Tomas Tatar and Chris Tierney.
FIVE ON FIVE/60 AND CORSI FIVE ON FIVE (SINCE JAN 1)
Oilers since January 1: Interesting to see the scoring numbers across the board and improvement from Sheahan-Archibald over the last few weeks. Oilers need to get healthy in a quick hurry but these Jan-Feb totals are encouraging. The goalie numbers show Koskinen close to his season totals in GAA and off slightly in save percentage, while Smith has been quality for seven weeks compared to his previous levels. That top line has been insane since Yamamoto landed there.
PHILIP BROBERG
It takes about 11 seconds for an opinion to become fact among Oilers fans online these days. I’m absolutely sure that this blog has contributed to these kinds of things over the years and yours truly would be a suspect for sure.
It doesn’t take long to check on someone’s verbal. A few weeks ago, I started reading about Philip Broberg being a shutdown defenseman who shouldn’t be expected to deliver much should he make the NHL. Question: How in hell does anyone know this?
Let’s use Filip Berglund and Broberg, who are teammates, as comparisons:
Broberg has scored five points in 461:25 even-strength minutes. That’s 0.65 points per 60 at even strength, age 18.
Berglund has scored seven points in 568:24 even strength minutes. That’s 0.74 points per 60 at even strength, age 22.
Are we sure about Broberg’s offense? Berglund is averaging over two minutes a night on the power play, so we know he’s an offensive contributor, right? Let’s do Oscar Klefbom’s numbers at the same age Broberg is now.
Klefbom scored two points in 398:12 even strength minutes. That’s 0.30 points per 60 at even strength, age 18. Keep in mind Klefbom’s career highs in the NHL are 12 goals and 38 points.
How can this be? He didn’t score at 18 in the SHL, that is apparently enough evidence to bury him. Or, you know, not.
I think we as a group, in our eagerness to show how smart we are (that’s a human item, nothing any of us can do about the urge), have thrown caution and curiosity to the wind. Need to temper the strength of our words, maybe couch our verbal with “I’ve been wondering about x, and will now do a thorough job of looking at it, will then post my work and sincerely hope you kick the hell out of it” because that’s kind of how it should work. We all know each other, generally speaking we’ve made decisions on ourselves as individuals. You can’t change people, but maybe we can change our statements from “these are the 10 commandments of GOD ALMIGHTY” to “hey, I just had a thought and wanted to share it” and possibly find more eyes and ears on the subject. I think all of us would benefit. Remember, we’ve already decided if you’re smart or not, the die is cast.
OSCAR KLEFBOM
How long will he be out? By the five o’clock whistle in Edmonton yesterday I was hearing Klefbom was dealing with the issue for many days and the schedule allowed for time away at this time. Kind of a scheduled absence, times for ease of schedule.
Could be. We’ll know at the deadline, in my opinion. If Klefbom’s return is in real doubt, suspect Holland casts about to see if there’s someone he can add for the stretch run and the playoffs. He has other concerns (scoring winger, center) and the prices on blue are high. Evan Bouchard is very probably better than anyone the team could afford to bring in.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we say goodbye to the chilling cold and hello to spring (by God, I hope so). Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will stop by and chime in on the Klefbom injury, McDavd’s return, the road trip brilliance and the Bruins in town. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will join us at 11 to talk changing odds with McDavid on the shelf, XFL moving the needle, odds on which NFL team will take Tua Tagovailoa in the draft, and the Astros over under on everything. Marisa Ingemi from the Boston Herald will join us to talk Bruins. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I said that one had to be concerned that he didn’t have the fire in the belly to be a head coach because he, until the Oilers hired him, had been unwilling to leave the posh NHL assistant coach lifestyle to endure the less glamourous life in the CHL or AHL. It had nothing to do with connecting with players.
Another characteristic of a hater is someone who denigrates someone they do not know over perceived issues that they made up.
Why would anyone be concerned about that? Woodcroft had head coached before and he was also a AHL player if my memory serves, which means he has experience being in the same position as the players he is coaching, he has lived the same kind of life, who took the same busses.
How do you quantify “fire in the belly” and why did you think Woodcroft did not have it? Is there anything objectively speaking that caused you to feel that way?
There is not, because you are drunk on haterade.
If I used similar criticisms about Nurse
“Has never played 1st line minutes, doesn’t have fire in his belly, too soft from his millionaire contracts”
I guarantee you would call me a hater.
Hater.
Those are the numbers you floated. You also insisted he had to be resigned to a longer term and refused to name a number that would make it too rich for the Oil. You basically insinuated he was irreplaceable and worth whatever they might have to pay.
It certainly isn’t your style to use qualifiers like the word risky.
New for The Athletic: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer, with trades, buyouts and loud noises.
https://theathletic.com/1617575/2020/02/20/lowetide-making-sense-of-the-oilers-forward-depth-chart-for-the-summer/
Ya’ll are being way too harsh on Nurse for the OT goal.
He’s scored in OT on essentially that play in the past. He saw a break, took it to the net. It didn’t work out, but he got on his horse to get back, despite the futility of doing so.
And OP is also right – team wouldn’t have been in OT were it not for 25.
Briggin a’ raft’alreity
pure eye, bear did his job. Why is defence our problem?
It’s true the best Defense is offence. I know the feeling of dread, however they can out score teams as it is 29.6 powerplay wins, or catches up. 59 games as you said.
Had to watch the second half of the game at the Pub as I could actually make a Quiz Night for a change. Filled in the holes with PVR.
Some thoughts:
1. You can’t blame the player if he is forced to play in a situation beyond his abilities. Respect his courage to take the challenge and do his best with it. Nurse was unreal tonight, end of story. We’ll see if Tipp adjusts the PP (he should).
2, Fries N Gravy… don’t know if Samwise heard you earlier, but he had a game and maybe coulda had a hattie. Not that I disagree with you… we need to see such games more consistently than Sam has shown them to us
3. Watching Chara getting some Yammer time was worth the price of admission all by itself. If Sportsnet was smart they’d be showing a highlight package all week.
4. Did Brian Burke, The Silver Bullet Head, endorse Drai for the Hart? If so, sweet.
If people are wondering if Drai is a controversial choice, this Twitter thread is epic and a funny read:
https://twitter.com/EditorinLeaf/status/1229800459399049217
The tweet that started it all:
Leon Draisaitl is super overrated. Despite racking up PP points, he has a 47 % Corsi and the Oilers have been outscored with him on the ice at 5v5.
They are going to give him the least deserved Hart Trophy in NHL history.
Leon Draisaitl is the very definition of lazy useless no good for nothing kraut. We all know this. Sheesh, any lazy ass out there can play 30 hard minutes against the Bruins, let’s get real.
5. You can’t say Mike “Blind Ninja” Smith didn’t give the Oil a chance to win tonight. Love. His. Battle. Fuck he freaks me out though
6. The push back that was the entire 2nd period was one of the proudest I’ve ever felt of the 2020 Oil. As Lunchpail as a paving crew. We were all over them.
7. Look up “The Vaunt” on Wikipedia. The image there will be our Penalty Kill. What a job against the next best PP crew on the planet. It wasn’t always pretty, especially in the first when the Bruins were getting a ton of shots on it, but the Slick got the job done. Special Teams, Smith, and Saw-off earned us another point.
8. If Jamie Benn doesn’t get suspended, all hell is going to rain down on the Department of Player Safety. Remember Hunter on Lafontaine? Will this even get half as many? A quarter?
9. Great game by the three rookie D. You couldn’t ask for more. Maybe Caleb’s best game thus far. And that was a damn dirty play by Kuhlman on him. Scoring on that PP was sweet justice.
One of the best shifts by the Dry Line in the 3rd was with Laggy and Benning. Laggy had 4:41 of shutout PK TOI… and played some 4 on 4.
10. Never has kissing your sister been more satisfying.
I questioned Yamamoto’s offense after two underwhelming AHL seasons offensively.
Glad it looks like I’m wrong. I mean he’s not going to continue to score at 30% but it looks like he can hang in the top six.
You also said it would be better for Woodcrofts career for him to leave the org. to go somewhere else. You also said he wouldn’t connect with the players because he didn’t take enough bus rides and is too used to flying first class and staying in nice hotels.
Sounds like a hater to me.
I said hiring Woodcroft was risky, because he had never been a head coach. And that I hoped he was successful. I never said he would fail. I don’t think that is “hating”.
You did say both of those things (though we don’t know if Nurse would have singed those deals).
And IMO you’re right.
Just like the Woodcroft haters were wrong.
I said $5.5 with duration two years ago. I said $6.5 million with duration a month ago.
The Nurse haters are wrong. Just like the Petry haters were.
Regarding the discussion about the forwards changing in OT while Nurse went deep and turned the puck over…KY made it back to the bench and Nuge came on; Drai was standing at center ice when the winning goal was scored. I imagine he thought that the game was over if Pasta scored while if he missed Leon would be in position to accept a breakaway pass the other way. Nurse, Drai and Nuge all minus 2 on the night.
Actually this clears up what you were getting at much better for me, thanks.
Bear or Jones for PP1 ahead of Benning.
1) I’m pretty sure these data are normal distributions but I should check to be sure (I may do that soon but it won’t be tonight). Checking the standard deviations would also be helpful for sure.
2) I think we’re on the same page. I was trying to say that we can’t know what’s “real” and what’s luck here (or even what’s being measured). And in part I was guarding against folks seeing top 5% and bottom 5% and believing that the players falling there were definitely doing something to end up there. Every distribution has a top 5% and a bottom 5% – someone ALWAYS ends up there. In this data set i don’t think there’s clear evidence of anything except that sometimes/often forwards can increase on ice SH%. Everything else (IMO) is as likely luck as it is due to something the players are doing on ice.
3) Agreed that a next step with this data would be breaking it down to see if a subset was driving the whole. But on the flip side I think equally important would be to see if each of the 3 years going into the 3 year data set showed a similar pattern. And extending beyond the 3 years to see if the patterns here were even longer standing. In the latter 2 cases you could end up more sure that an effect we see is “real” (at least in that it would be consistent and reproducible).
4) That would be informative for sure, but I think it’s highly likely that “drivers” often affect on ice performance beyond their own shot volume/success. McDavid himself would be a great example of this – he consistently passes up decent shots to set up a teammate in a HD/tap in area. That would be reflected in on ice SH% but less so in his individual shot volume and SH%.
To be clear (not sure if I mis-typed or was unclear in my original post) my conclusion would be that forwards can and often do boost on ice SH%. I don’t think the data I looked at indicates that forwards affect on ice SV% or that defensemen affect on ice SH% or SV%. I can’t rule out that the latter things occur sometimes, but the only clear effect I see is that some forwards can improve on ice SH%.
The Bergeron line played essentially ALL their 5 on 5 minutes against Nurse.
Nurse played 6 minutes on a perfect PK.
Nurse was bad on the PP but the OT GA was not on him.
Nurse was a big part of getting a point tonight.
The Bergeron line playing essentially ALL their 5 on 5 minutes against Nurse.
Nurse played 6 minutes on a perfect PK.
Nurse was bad on the PP but the OT GA was not on him.
Nurse was a big part of getting a point tonight.
Remember when Guy “I’m always right” Godot insisted that Holland should give Nurse whatever cap hit and term he demanded?
Good times.
Florida looking to put more distance between them and the Leafs….will Leafs be sellers at the deadline……;)
There is almost zero chance that Bouch comes in directly for a d-man. Neither of Bear, Larsson nor Benning are coming out and none of them are going to play the left side, nor is Bouchard.
If Bouch gets a game, it will be via 11F and 7D I think.
No need to go there now. The simple “fix” is to give Bear some PP1 at bats – too bad there won’t be time to practice before next game – well, maybe they practice tomorrow, beats me.
Unreal game. 1 important point on the first game back from a tough roadie against the #1 team in the league and 7 rookies in the lineup. Hats off to Tippett and Woodcroft tonight. Connor is going to come back with rockets on his skates after watching his team chop wood and carry water without him.
I see no point in getting mad at Nurse. The Oilers of old put people over their head into roles they couldn’t fill for a long time. This time it was by necessity through injury not roster construction.
He’s miscast on the PP and probably OT, we already knew that from the last 7 years. 5 on 5 I’d say he was a beast tonight.
He more than held his own in ~29 minutes.
]
Of course, they don’t get to 3 on 3 OT without his 28 minutes including over 6 minutes on the PK.
exactly
Is there any point in even criticizing Nurse’s brain farts at this point?
This is why Holland didn’t commit term imo. Darnell is a placeholder until Bouchard, Broberg and Samourkov elevate.
jm363561,
Now if only the home broadcasters were.
He also played a ton of 5 on 5 minutes against the “perfection line” and over 6 minutes on the PK.
Gritty effort from the lads tonight.
So impressed with the youth brigade this season. Bear, Jones, Moto, Benson. Some credit has to go to Woodcroft. He’s sending polished prospects to the bigs.
Agreed. Jones is legit.
Jones was a legit top 4 NHLer tonight.
Agreed
Oh thanks, that ear worm will get me kicked out of bed tonite!
Dys, Phlegms, Pysankas
Spill theirs just anywhere,
But Gary loves those who treat their
Points with more care?
Every point is sacred
Every point is great
If a point gets wasted
God (and this blog) get quite irate
Monty Python never gets old…..
our B- team ties the Bruins.
Great effort boys.
LOL with all due respect
Leave Nurse Alone !!
The reason this is frustrating is that a win would have meant a whole lot for this group – and they had the chances.
At least it didn’t end with Russell pinwheeling across the ice again…
Everyone can now see we have at least 8 defencemen better than he is – yes?
I think if Cowboy wasnt hurt right now Uncle Ken would have found him a new home by now. Whether he can be convinced to waive his NMC is another story. If he comes off IR before the deadline he may just be gone. I know Tippett like Vets but I think at least 2 kids have stolen his job
I love watching a hardworking team. It appears the Oilers are just that. Huge point. Disappointed they didn’t steal an extra point.
Nurse needs to pull that out and regroup with fresh linemates. I like the confidence, but it was a selfish play IMO.
Shremp watch:
5 GP 1 Pt
We made a so called tippy top team sweat blood lol fuck those clowns come any finals
marty62,
agree. no fault on Nurse there.. 2 on 1 by us will lead to an odd man rush for boston regardless.
Having said that… gotta say Bear looked smooth and composed in OT and I would like to see him get the first look next time.
Nurse has won us many 3 on 3 games we recall, and was a tower of strength all game. Larsson too.
Oilers are just a shade off the consensus best teams in the league, without their best player (and best D tonite). The coaching staff, including the goaltending coaches, are working wonders… or maybe they’re just competent after years of fuckery.
I was going to check NHL.com for the Dys-Wild score but I just gotta hang here and will be alerted if Vcr scores.
got not faults with Nurse this game. Just goes to show that the single D powerplay quarterback is a precious thing. Hey you’ve got Bouchard up? Would I sit Lagesson for Bouchard? Normally no.. Lagesson defended well… but I might, if only to see him on the Powerplay. Look we’ve also got to think about playoffs, .. Bouchard, maybe, maybe, could be a secret weapon on the playoffs. But first give it to bear.
Anyway, you take your chances in OT. Pasternak probably should have won it in regulation but hit the post. Yamo had Drei on the 2 on 1 and couldn’t feed him. coin toss to win the game. Pretty much everybody looks completely awesome and completely stupid in 3 on 3, about half of the time.
I think if on that last 2 on 1 with Drai and Yama if it was Drai with the puck he would have found a way to calm that puck and get it to Yama for the winner. I see everyone is jumping on ol Nurse with both feet. He was not alone, somehow he wasthe only guy back in photo with Pasternak scoring. Where were the forwards coming on for Drai who was changing?
Yup
It didn’t look good on either of them IMO
Too many Brians
Left it as Woodguy’s phone corrupted my phone’s autocorrect kinda funny
‘Brain farts’
Derek,
Too many minutes for both.
Bracket Trafficky sized site today. Over 600 comments on a guaranteed loss night. Most since the Turtle Tank Trashing.
WOW………..Limbo
Nice game, Oilers. This is a good team.
Nurse looked brilliant and awful throughout the game. It’s probably worth mentioning that he played 28:43.
Leon played 30:16.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20192020&game=20929&view=limited
Younger Oil,
Hate to dump on Nurse, but that was just abysmal. I don’t want to second-guess Tipp, but really, wouldn’t Jones or even Benning be a better choice after Bear. arrrggggh! Really wanted this one.
It’s fucking 3 on 3 OT. Where were the forwards that changed behind him? 3 on 3 has to be fluid. It sucks he fell, but there’s no excuse for him also being first man back on that play.
Has nothing to do with that – all about possession and ZERO low percentage offensive attempts in OT.
Absolutely stupid decision-making.
Yeah OK, taking the low percentage cut to the net might not have been the best choice.
I thought he kinda got caught with the other 2 Oilers changing though. By the time his rush was over 2 new Oilers could/should have been defending rather than Nurse being the closest guy to Pastrnak after falling at the other end of the rink.
I really don’t see that goal as being on Nurse.