Ken Holland’s first trade deadline was a double album that had everyone talking. Fabulous in the good parts, fascinating in the parts that weren’t immediately accessible and with very little filler. If the Oilers deadline were an album, I’d call it Physical Graffiti, assuming you weren’t completely sure about “The Rover” (represented by AA) on first listen.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
OILERS AFTER 63 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 22-34-7, 51 points; goal differential -35
- Oilers in 2016-17: 33-22-8, 74 points; goal differential +11
- Oilers in 2017-18: 27-32-4, 58 points; goal differential -35
- Oilers in 2018-19: 26-30-7, 59 points; goal differential -27
- Oilers in 2019-20: 33-22-7, 73 points; goal differential +4
Incredibly, the Oilers can pass the 2016-17 team with a win tonight. Holland spent silver but no gold yesterday, balancing the future and the now pretty well. Why? Have another look at that record.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 1-1-0
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-1, five points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, 12 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in February 2018: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2019: 3-6-4, 10 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in February 2020: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential +2
Remarkable just how much the team struggled in February through the McDavid years. Important to remember the team were sellers in three of the four previous years.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-4-1, 13 points in 11 games
I have tonight as a win, tomorrow night as a loss and Winnipeg as a win. I projected the Jets to be struggling more at the beginning of the month. It’s possible tonight is the final win of February, should it come to pass.
OILERS 2019-20
The trade deadline changes the structure of the McDavid and Sheahan lines (I think) and allows the team to send Tyler Benson to the minors for more seasoning. The Green trade moves Benning to the bench (initially) and eventually William Lagesson to the minors when Klefbom is healthy (I believe). Lots of new ideas for coach Dave Tippett, one guesses we’ll see at least two of the new hires this evening.
SAIL ON, LONDON KNIGHT
I remember well the day Sam Gagner became an Edmonton Oiler. We’d been talking about him for weeks, and discussing options and preferences. The morning Sam Gagner was drafted in 2007, I wrote:
Jim Matheson says the Oilers have targeted Sam Gagner and that’s alright with me. I’d be a little disappointed with Karl Alzner (I suspect Prendergast likes him most of all, he’s been positively silly in his comments) and very disappointed if they dealt the pick at #6.
They took Sam.
Red Line Report: Sam Gagner is Kane’s running mate in London. He has wonderful vision and creativity and a variety of touch passes that he can make through traffic. He is also the son of former NHL standout Dave Gagner and has acquired his father’s intuitive offensive instincts and general hockey sense. Gagner’s lateral quickness and variety of shifty moves create problems for defenders.
I wasn’t convinced early. I could see his skill, but wondered about him at center and really wondered about him staying that fall. I went to training camp with my friend Louise and she convinced me (Louise is a wise person)—well, 89 convinced me, but Louise pointed it out—that he was the Oilers best option and earned the roster spot. In that first season, Gagner scored 49 points and could have had more—the lasting memory I have of Robert Nilsson was how many golden chances he missed on perfect and sublime passes from Sam Gagner.
He was a project at 18 defensively, they all are really. The thing about Gagner is that he improved a little each year, or maybe I just told myself that and hoped Horcoff would live forever. Well.
We know about Sam’s down arrows and I’m not going to spend too much time on them. Suffice to say that the moment Leon Draisaitl’s name was called in 2014, the die was cast for Sam Gagner.
His return was welcome, felt right and came to an abrupt and difficult end. I had just interviewed him a couple of weeks before (The Oil Can) and he talked about looking forward to making the playoffs with the Oilers after all those early, difficult years.
Seen some hard times, drawn some bad lines, no time for shoeshines, hard nose the highway. Sail on, Sam Gagner. We won’t forget you, and please come back again.
KEN HOLLAND’S TRADES
Based on some of the comments from Oilers fans, I think it prudent to have a quick review of the Holland trades in his first year with the team. The first deal was Milan Lucic and a conditional pick for James Neal, and we all agree that it was a brilliant trade no matter what Neal accomplished. Why? Say it with me: Lucic had an untradeable contract, needed to be protected in the expansion draft and was a drag offensively on all lines. Remember? Plan to re-write history or are we all still on board there?
The second trade was another of those Rieder-Benning trades where a good draft pick won’t sign and you have to send him away for a depth pick. Ladies and gentlemen, John Marino to Pittsburgh for a 2021 sixth-round pick. It’s part of his record, but tough to blame the incoming general manager in this case. A sixth round pick has a 16 percent chance of playing 100 games.
The third trade was Kyle Brodziak and a conditional fourth-round selection to the Detroit Red Wings for defenseman Mike Green. The pick is a fourth in 2020, goes to a third in 2021 if the Oilers get to final four and Green plays 50 percent of the games. The odds of a fourth-round pick playing 100 NHL games is less than 20 percent. The odds of a third-round pick playing 100 NHL games is 27 percent. I think this is a reasonable value trade considering injury concerns surrounding Matt Benning and Kris Russell.
The fourth trade was Sam Gagner and two second-round picks (2020 and 2021) to Detroit in exchange for LW Andreas Athanasiou and LW Ryan Kuffner. According to Scott Cullen’s work middle of the decade, a second-round pick has a 34 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. Many are not onboard with this trade, I’m fine with it as long as Dave Tippett plays him with a skill center.
The fifth pick might have end up having the best value, Edmonton dealing a fifth-round pick in 2021 to the Ottawa Senators for LW Tyler Ennis. My initial thought is Athanasiou gets the shot on McDavid’s line, but if nothing rhymes Ennis is in a fantastic position to take advantage. Wonderful trade. A fifth-round pick has a 14.9 percent chance of playing 100 games.
The sixth trade saw RHD Joel Persson dealt to the Anaheim Ducks for goalie Angus Redmond and a conditional 2022 seventh-round pick. The condition requires Persson to play in 25 NHL games during the 20-21 season. The odds of a seventh-round pick playing 100 NHL games is nine percent.
A huge game for the Oilers tonight, with a schedule loss waiting for them tomorrow night. The new hires will be needed immediately.
THERE’S A HOLE IN THE 2020 DRAFT
Ken Holland didn’t trade Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg or the first-round pick in the 2020 draft, but he blew a big hole in the rest of the weekend. It kind of looks like 2015 now, meaning scouts are going to need to make every pick count. Here’s what things look like this morning.
FIRST ROUND, No. 18: Oilers have this pick.
SECOND ROUND, No. 49: Traded to Ottawa for Athanasiou.
THIRD ROUND, No. 80: Traded to Calgary for Neal, although JN is two goals from hitting 21 and having the pick transfer. The more of the regular season he misses, the greater the chance the pick does not transfer. If Tippett keeps him off the power play, that pick may not transfer.
FOURTH ROUND, No. 111: Traded to Detroit for Mike Green.
FIFTH ROUND, No. 142: Oilers have this pick.
SIXTH ROUND, No. 173: Oilers have this pick.
SEVENTH ROUND, No. 204: Oilers have this pick.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning begins at 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk trade deadline and tonight’s game. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will chat about the deals and the lines/pairings and Andrew Peard will set up today’s Oil Kings game at 10:40. At 11, Hailey Salvian from The Athletic will talk Tyler Ennis and the Senators draft. At 11:25, Michael Hebert from the Oilers Live Podcast will chat about the OilersLive Cup, the Adam Zukiwsky Memorial Trophy and a big event you’ll want to know about on Saturday. It’s at the Downtown Community Arena – Rogers Place Practice Ice. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
The Oilers PK is critical to their success. Khaira is a big part of that.
Ryan,
Kassian got his money. Stability for him. Now he needs to really start focusing on rounding his game in all zones, on 97s wing or not.
I actually do think 44 goes back to his regular spot beside Connor. He also has the speed to keep up and I think Ennis, despite his scoring ability, might be better suited to playing with Archie and Sheahan.
Besides, I think 44 with 97 balances things out a bit, spreads the scoring potential across the lineup and it also gives Archie someone who’s as quick as he is.
A 3rd line of 63-23-15 would be a load – defensively responsible, all sorts of shifty and a genuine threat to score off the cycle or the rush.
As I wrote the other day, my ideal post injury/suspension full lineup looks like this:
28-97-44
93-29-56
63-23-15
18-91-10/39
39/10-16-52 (black aces)
At this point, JJ, despite his PK prowess is a luxury item, a pure specialist at this point. I think 5v5 play will be critical down the stretch and into the playoffs, even more than special teams play. As much as I’m rooting for him to succeed, JJ at evens is becoming a liability despite what he brings at 4v5.
If you need to keep JJ in the lineup, spot-start him as 4C and double-shift any of 29, 97 or 93 as needed to provide extra 5v5 cover.
Ennis and AA look great on 97’s wing.
97 said it’s the fastest line he’s ever played on.
Does 44 play with 97 when his suspension is over now?
If he doesn’t, his contract could start looking bad quickly.
The next Bear contract is going to be a challenge.
Bear’s getting minutes in all situations… 26:51 last night!
The price keeps going up.
He did a great job on the PP keeping the puck in the zone.
He had a few uncharacteristic give always in the Oilers zone.
I think Bear is underrated around the league.
This is good content.
Every penalty we take is a good call. He’s by far the worst reverse engineer in the business.
After a very eventful couple days, let’s not forget to salute the Golden Nugge for reaching 50 points!
After all these years
Btw, Bear didn’t look out of place at all on PP1 with three opportunities. I actually hope that he rotates down the wall while Nuge rotates to the top of the umbrella to set up his right shot one timer mirroring Drai on the other side.
We really should sign him to that 8x $4.167M AAV now. If we do the one year bridge as Stauffer suggests, he’ll be at least $6M AAV by next year.
Former Oiler prospect Kale Kessy injured during fight:
https://twitter.com/Real_IanRapp/status/1232480519750684672?s=20
Total KO
Jokingly, if Ennis plays well with McDavid, will he get another $3million offer like Kassian? AA will for sure since that’s his QO.
Literally a month after signing Kass, Holland might get proof that his trade acquisitions might be as good or better than the guy he re-signed for too much and for too long.
Achieving a complete set of 6 high quality top 6 FW’s
Looking at high quality top 6ers the OIlers imo have:
McDavid C
Draisattl C
Yamamoto RW
RNH LW
————————————————————————
Future potential high quality top 6ers in the system:
Benson LW
Lavoie RW
(I don’t think JP is going to play with the OIlers)
That’s not a lot of options in the system and it’s not a great idea to put too much faith in any one prospect
Benson I think will really have to make some strides to be a high quality top 6er
So although the cost was significant I’m good with the investment of the 2 2nds at this moment in time for the LW
If he proves to fill one of the 2 top 6 LW positions that would leave 1 top 6 spot open, a RW
Waiting on Lavoie could take a while and may never pan out
With there being not a lot of cap space available this summer for what a high quality RWer garners in FREE AGENCY, to get one for next season it’ll have to be acquired via TRADE
Looking at the resources available, could a package of Puljujarvi, a defenceman and a prospect get the 2nd high quality top 6 RW
Keep Ennis there for one more game. Then Kass is back and Coach has options.
Agreed. I thought this was Smith’s weakest game in a while too.
And speaking of…
When Klef, Nygard and Kassian are all back in the line-up, this is hands down the fastest team in the NHL.
@me.
Lagesson got some bad press above, but I thought he made a couple of high-confidence nice plays tonight that showed that he could become a regular in The Show. He’s got some tools. He could probably just use 20 games to find his sea legs. With KBomb due back early next week though, that’s unlikely.
Just finished watching on the PVR.
I was pleasantly surprised by Ennis’ quickness. I heard he was fast but to my eyes, he appeared to be even faster than AA on a few plays. Stylistically, I think he’s actually closer to Yamamoto so maybe try him out on Drai’s wing tomorrow?
Archibald and Sheahan have good chemistry so I’d keep them together at 5v5 as well as 5v4. The coaches saw the same so they put Chaisson or PRussell on McDavid’s wing for a few shifts (bleah) but until Kassian and Yama get back, we’ll be blendering a little.
Mike Smith had two consecutive good games before this match. I felt he was “meh” overall tonight. He was definitely the second best goalie on the ice but it’s hard when Gibson’s on the other end. Hoping Koskinen can steal the game tomorrow.
Good one!
Crap game, but AAMEN started to put it together more and more as the game went on.
I can still see that first rush though with Ennis carrying the puck in through the neutral zone (likely used to be the fastest guy on his line, not the slowest), McDavid trying to read him, and then deciding to curl in behind 63… in the meantime Ennis loses McDavid and can’t fire a quick pass off and the rush gets eaten up by the D… which at the blue line were shitting their pants.
When the three of the finally do get it all figured out, the Oilers will have the first legitimate missile attack system deployed in the NHL.
Crappy first, mediocre for the rest. Some glimmer from the new first line. Or the AAMEN! line.
Hunter1909 Death March™ Update:
New leaderboard after last nights game up at the site here:
http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com
Mark SpectorVerified account @SportsnetSpec · 36m36 minutes ago
It was a penalty, and we’re not sure the Oilers deserved a point.
Don’t @ me.
Don’t even get me started on the use of the royal “we”.
There wasn’t a player on 97’s line that wasn’t playing with two new linemates.
In fact, fully half the top 6 was switched up.
Add in three rookies on D, two of whom are playing with partners they aren’t accustomed to. And the 3rd rook getting heavy minutes in a top pairing role, and now running the PP.
Tipp says there was too much waiting and watching in the first period, but the team got better as the game went on.
I think he is right. I think there was a lot of hesitation, tentative plays, waiting to see what linemates and partners are going to do, lack of trust, etc early on.
Be nice if there was time for a practice but maybe playing bang-bang again tomorrow night is the next best thing for increasing familiarity.
Now that the Ducks have a
Rickard Rakell
AND a
Sonny Milano
I will be very disappointed if they don’t acquire a Minsk this summer.
Munny,
Exactly.
Connor didn’t roast the refs. He could/should have, but didn’t. A roast by omission, as it were.
#takethehighroad
Tipp: if that was a penalty they should have been six like that called on plays on Connor
This.
They never should have been anywhere near OT. That’s a bad hockey team they’re playing. They started like they were out all night after LA.
That and the Minnesota game – yuck.
The Anaheim broadcast team were mediocre to poor but I’m glad I didn’t have to listen to that horseshit. There is seriously no excuse for that.
The Detroit broadcasts are great with Mickey Redmond…interesting and folksy…he brings it.
I calculated it like this:
1) If all the teams ran the table in their remaining games who’d finish 9th?
It’s actually Minnesota since they have less games than Ari/Wpg.
If they went 20-0-0 in their remaining games they’d get to 107 points.
2) What would it take for the Oilers to get to 107 points?
They’re NOW at 63GP/74PTS, so 33 points to be sure to tie Minnesota. I guess they need to finish 1 ahead because Minnesota has lots of ROW too.
So 34 points needed = 17 wins. So the magic number of wins is 17.
3) To check I’m not full of shit, you can (and I did) easily take an example.
Minnesota goes 10-10-0 to finish the season. 20 points. They end with 87.
Oilers need to get to 88. How do they do that, but winning 7 games, so 7-9-0 (or similar).
10 Wild loses plus 7 Oilers wins = 17. The magic number.
Edit: because of Minnesota (theoretically) winning the ROW tiebreak I was wrong earlier, the magic number would have been 17.5 before the OTL.
Well, he’s right. It’s not a scoring chance, the puck isn’t in a high danger spot, and the only contact 97 made to my eye was with the tip of his blade on Milano’s glove, yet down he goes like a sack of hammers.
If the ref can’t see that’s not a penalty from only 20 feet away, he shouldn’t be reffing.
Remenda calling that penalty a good call should end with him being suspended for the remainder of the season.
I don’t know off the top of my head how much they played together, but I have difficulty believing Dylan Larkin couldn’t keep up with AA.
I don’t think they played much together
Only 92 minutes last year 5×5
101 this year
Lot of players in this game were gord awful…..
You hate to be really judgemental on these guys but wow!
That had to be the worst game I’ve seen Sheehan have this season, he had to be responsible for at least three prime giveaways that resulted in High scoring chances, I believe one was a goal too.
Kahari is really a non-factor almost every game he plays, if he’s not hitting and playing nasty then he’s just playing him self out of a job I’m afraid.
Chiasson……I really can’t say what he was going this game besides his time on the PP…
I seen Nurse struggle bad tonight, maybe it’s these old eyeballs..
Usually looking for positive things in addition to the negative is better for one’s health and more realistic.
And more encouraging for the players, too.
Gene Principe
@GenePrincipe
·
8m
“He goes down pretty easy on a ticky-tacky play. I prefer they don’t make that call because it’s really a nothing play”
@EdmontonOilers
@cmcdavid97
on his penalty in OT..
That’s a good point
He wasn’t playing with the faster players in Detroit, he was probably on his own a lot on rush chances, with McDavid there will be someone with him
Manning, Russell and Benning were out. WTF do you expect??
A 10-8 game with plenty of open hole shots, fuck your corsi (or corset-my phone wants this) table top hockey goaltending with defenceman not roving but actually taking the man. Or a better result in Vegas wil do…
So much LMAO here I don’t even know where to start…
Been trying to recall for weeks who Ethan Bear reminds me of and it hit me tonight. Phil Housley.
Head up. Feet always moving. Great lateral moves. Tape to tape passes. Good slapper that he doesn’t use enough. Even has that wider stance like Housely when he’s marking his man.
Wirh KBom out, it’s not even close. Bear is the best D on the team.
+1
Connor with the classy take re: ticky-tack calls and the refs.
But it wasn’t. At all.
The Oilers were even and the Ducks scored on a bad OT penalty call. The Oilers outshot them 32-21 when all was said and done.
The game was not lost in the first.
So was the REF.
Snap.
ya, that’s a good point. McDavid should have come off… looked to me like the ‘play’ was.. to make it look like he’s going off.. to signal that he’s going off… but then not to go off.
Next time, just go off.
Fact is Connor had no legs there and when you get tired you take calls like that. Bad call.. but… he should have been off the ice probably.
Tough look for Lars, didn’t tie the stick up and even with a man down he lost his one on one. I’m no Rickibox believer but the front of the net had too much open real estate tonight. Acres and forgotten men, Smith can only do so much, hard to blame anything on him.
I dunno… he had to cheat a bit to the open backboor winger.. An oiler was pressuring the puck carrier (Henrique) .. that battle was lost early and Larrson had to basically cover two guys. He reacted well and got a stick on stick, but Milano had a strong stick. I don’t think that ones on Larsson. Smith a little deep? Maybe Koski gets vegas.
Man is Granlund a meh player. Gotta be someone in the Bake better.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Gamby or Currie up for a few.
Benson… was doing OK. Had a bit of chem with Arch and She. Or give one Gambardella a shot, if it’s just to plug a hole.
Nurse covering no one on the winner
brain dead, sleepy game by him today
In the first period he was putting Bear under a lot of pressure in his own zone by not getting into position for the safe option pass forcing bear to scramble with the puck
Don’t know what Conner was thinking there slashing his legs for the penalty but the Oilers were insistent on beating themselves tonight.
Appropriate they were in Disneyland. That penalty was Goofy, Dumbo and Mickey Mouse all in one.
a good goal… Larson had him covered very well actually, but too strong on his stick and , we were down a man. Should not have made that call on Connor though.
However, I’ll take the point. We’re damn lucky to get that point the way we started the game. Canucks without Markstrom will fall eventually. Calgary getting some wins they probably shouldn’t. I still see the oil pulling up. Just hang around.
It will be interesting to hear Tips presser. For me, there were two very bad calls/non calls on McDAvid tonight.
You’re excitement will be saved for another day I guess.
May have been different if Kailer was an option tonight.
True this game was lost in that terrible first period
Smith was not sharp on that one…
Happy with the point but Fuck me Larrson wtf are you doing?
Take away the stick? Nah push in the back is the play.
Asshole
FTFY