If you only knew. If you only knew. The Dallas Stars of 20 years ago were beauty and the beast, Mike Modano on a majestic rush combined with Derian Hatcher’s maniacal play and Mike Keane’s mouth and stickwork. If the NHL of the late 1990’s were a western, the Dallas Stars were surely Frank Miller. There was more than a touch of Frank Miller in the play of the Stars last night, so watching the Oilers win had special value. This road trip is madness. The piano has been drinking. The spotlight looks like a prison break.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
- New Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
- Jonathan Willis: Andreas Athanasiou injured, Mike Green elevated in Oilers’ loss to Vegas
- Lowetide: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition might give the Oilers a scoring winger for McDavid cluster.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers salvage a point as newcomers settle in (and produce) with Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
OILERS AFTER 67 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 25-35-7, 57 points; goal differential -31
- Oilers in 2016-17: 35-23-9, 79 points; goal differential +11
- Oilers in 2017-18: 29-34-4, 62 points; goal differential -37
- Oilers in 2018-19: 30-30-7, 67 points; goal differential -20
- Oilers in 2019-20: 36-23-8, 80 points; goal differential +7
Amazing. The current Oilers, who deploy a No. 3 center who went 0-for-15 in the faceoff circle last night, have 80 points and are on a mission from God to make the playoffs. This isn’t a hockey team anymore. It’s a movement.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 4-2-1
OILERS IN MARCH
- Oilers in March 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in March 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in March 2018: 0-2-0, zero points; goal differential -3
- Oilers in March 2019: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in March 2020: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +6
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, WPG, VEG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
- Current results: 2-0-0, 4 points in two games
The early days of March have the team out in front of my predictions but you’ll notice the schedule is not easy as we move toward the Ides of March. This is a fantastic start to the final month of the season.
OILERS 2019-20
I don’t think the McDavid line as it stands is going to last much longer (mentioned that yesterday) and with James Neal back in action maybe we see the band get back together (Kassian and Neal with 97). Khaira at center looked solid, Klefbom back soon is fabulous. Koskinen stole that game, people. All numbers five on five and via NST.
LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 9:57, going 5-15 Corsi, 4-9 shots, no goals and 0-4 HDSC. Played 9:48 against Heiskenan-Johns, getting outshot 10-4.
Nuge was the offensive star of the game, going 1-1-2 all on the man advantage. He didn’t move the needle at all at five on five. No shots, no HDSC. It’s a theme. Leon Draisaitl won nine of 15 in the faceoff circle, had a takeaway and a giveaway and three shots. Took a penalty, had an assist that came on the power play. Kailer Yamamoto had a giveaway, a big shot black and checked like a demon. Like every Oilers player, he got rocked by a physical Stars team several times.
LINE 2 Tyler Ennis-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 7:43 and were positively caved by Dallas: 3-14 Corsi, 2-8 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC. Outshot 7-1 by Gurianov-Dickenson-Hintz.
Tyler Ennis had one shot, one HDSC and got lucky as his stick got high on Jamie Benn but the referees missed it. Connor McDavid’s assist came on the power play, at five on five he had one shot, drew a penalty and won six of 14 on the dot. Josh Archibald worked hard but didn’t get a lot done. I think we see a shuffle for the McDavid line soon. Archibald was solid on the PK.
LINE 3 Andreas Athanasiou-Riley Sheahan-Zack Kassian played 8:04, going 6-5 Corsi, 6-2 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.
Andreas Athanasiou had three shots and a HDSC, one of only four forwards to get one at five on five. He also took a minor penalty twice and will need to iron that out of his game in a quick hurry. Still early days, want to see him have some scoring success. Riley Sheahan got the golden sombrero in the faceoff circle, had one shot, a giveaway and at least a couple of plays where he put his mates in more peril than he would have by just leaving well enough alone. He’s struggling lately. Zack Kassian had a takeaway and played a physical game on a night where the Oilers were getting thrown about with abandon.
LINE 4 James Neal-Jujhar Khaira-Alex Chiasson played 6:46, going 6-5 Corsi, 2-3 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.
James Neal had some jump in his first game back in ages. He had one shot, drew a penalty, turned over pucks (although he got no credit). Played well. Jujhar Khaira won three of seven in the dot, had a HDSC, two giveaways, hammered Dickenson at the Oilers bench. Sent a pass from his own corner to the slot that found Radulov. Incredibly poor decision. Alex Chiasson scored a huge goal, it was a beauty in overtime. Had one shot, HDSC, drew a penalty. Damn near scored in regulation, too. A good game for Chiasson.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 17:13, going 12-14 Corsi, 8-11 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse had one shot, one giveaway and three blocked shots. I thought he had a terrible first period. Ethan Bear had two shots and a takeaway, he was challenged by the fleet Stars forecheck but performed well to my eye. In photo on the Klingberg PP goal but what the hell are you supposed to do with that shot? Gurianov beat Bear clean early in the game, reminded us the quality rookie blue is still finding his way.
PAIRING TWO Caleb Jones-Adam Larsson played 13:01, getting fed 6-26 Corsi (!!), 6-14 shots, no goals and 1-5 HDSC. Spent much of the evening with the Draisaitl line and against the Heiskanen pairing, the Faksa line.
Caleb Jones had one shot on goal and used his mobility to get advantage, but it was a tough night. Adam Larsson had one shot and was a hammer on a night when the Oilers badly needed on. I thought his penalty was earned, Larsson’s stick clearly got part of the facial area of his opponent.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 8:43, going 6-4 Corsi, 3-1 shots no goals and 2-1 HDSC.
Kris Russell had two shots, and looked far better than he did in his first games back after the layoff. Strong PK. Matt Benning had a clean slate, not much shaking at either end. That’s a good thing for defensemen. A turnover or two exposed him but I thought he played well overall.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was the biggest factor in the game, full stop. Stopped 42 of 43, .977. He played only two games in January, six in February. He is 3-5-0 since January 1, with a save percentage of .917.
THE WHO BY NUMBERS
Edmonton’s five on five Corsi is 48.06 (No. 26), the shot differential is 48.59 (No. 21) and the goal differential is 46.79 (No. 25). Save percentage .9103 (No. 27). Shooting percentage? 8.34 (No. 16).
What is keeping the Oilers afloat? Special teams. Great PP, Great PK.
In “all situations” the Oilers goal differential is 51.08 (No. 15) and the save percentage is .9044 (No. 15). Shooting percentage 10.65 (No. 2).
I can’t see Arizona catching Edmonton now, they have 30 points in play (15 games) and trail by eight points. Let’s say the Coyotes go on a heater and finish 10-5-0 in the home stretch. That would leave them with 92 points, meaning Edmonton would need to go 6-8-1 to finish with 93 points and land ahead of Arizona. The Bettman era means catching teams is like climbing Everest.
LINES
The lines won’t work like this. Something has to be done. In 23:55 together Ennis-97-Archibald have been outshot 8-17 and have an expected goal percentage of 26.24. The fact the actual goal differential is 2-1 is interesting, and McDavid does this routinely but this line is not good.
Andreas Athanasiou-Riley Sheahan-Zack Kassian have played 19:01 together and have a shot share of 63.64 (14-8) despite being 0-1 goals. That’s the one line (aside from the Nuge trio) that might have some sustain.
McDavid’s trio needs a fix and right soon.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the ground running with fresh mountain quality. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will review the two exceptional road games that (imo) signal a real change in this team’s persona. Joe Osborne from OddsShark talks NHL, NBA and NCAA brackets for March madness. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Early early days yet. Was listening to a Blues podcast and they were raving about Thomas. Said he might soon be their best player.
What about Ethan Bear on a bridge?
I am kind of leaning to the Oilers bridging all young talent between now and the ends of McDrai’s contracts very aggressively.
Drai has 5 years left after this season. McDavid 6.
I think if the Oilers want these guys to stick around for another contract they had better win a Cup before those contracts are up.
In order to help the Oilers on the way towards that goal I feel like perhaps they should be beating down the salaries of their young talent with great vigour.
Every penny is going to be crucial over the next 3-4 seasons and guys like Bear and Yamamoto have no rights.
Again, you argue a point that isn’t being made. Yes, its too early to “call it” which is exactly what he said “Early days still”.
I’ve acknowledged, at least twice in responses that Koskinen has been the better goal, on the year, in aggregate. Not sure why you keep defending a point that’s given.
The argument currently being made is that in 2020, Smith has played better and, yes, 7-16 games is a sample size but that doesn’t matter in determining which tender has been playing better and should see the net on any given night. Tending decisions are based on recent info, not what a tender did back in October or November.
While Mikko only had 7 games prior to Tuesday in 2020, I think its clear that Smith was having a better 2020 – GAA, Save Percentage were both well superior to Mikko. Mikko closed the gap with a 42/43 performace which evened up the numbers on the year.
The canucks lost last night? I don’t understand, they were playing at home….
You didn’t post numbers that show the flames come back and win. You posted shootout numbers.
Oh no Vancouver blew it again
Oh where have you gone Brogan Rafferty, Nucks nation turns its lonely eyes to you,
Or perhaps it also matters because one team is taking leads and closing out games before overtime while another is surrendering leads and having to battle back semi-regularly. Perhaps there’s value in not consistently having to win games in OT and the SO as, once the playoffs come, those game states change or are eliminated and the extra play time tends to wear down your team unnecessarily.
It’s just a thought but maybe YOUR. FRAMING. ISN’T. THE. ONLY. WAY. TO. FRAME. THINGS.
Harpers Hair,
Only thing that .matters is what your team does Harpy Notch.
Be sure to let any Flames fans know how much you wish you weren’t chained to the Dys this year.
Fly away home. Your home games are burning and your goalie is gone.
Strength of Schedule indeed. More like SOS. ?
Vancouver has four wins in its past 14 games (4-8-2) while allowing at least three goals in eight straight games and 13 of its past 15.
nhl.com
Calgary came back vs the Blue Jackets to be sure.
Speaking of opinions, as you were just booted off the Hunter1909 DeathMarch™ with a pathetically low opinion of this seasons Oilers chances…
How do you square reality, that is, Oilers not only in playoff position in march but potentially threatening to win the division?
Carper’s Hairball
Google the definition, pretty much fits the profile of this troll.
Canucks circling the drain.
Hold onto your noses boys!
HH is desperate for attention and for the Flames to win. Sad.
Opens twitter, sees Taylor Hall is trending, sees Canucks Twitter melting down, thinks about strengths of schedules.. This is tingly
Way too early to call it.
Necas, Suzuki, Chiytl all trending just as well.
Chityl has 22 pts in 57games this season, 1 less point then Yamamoto. Who has played 23 games this season.
Chityl has played 141games for 48pts
Suzuki has 40pts in 68games
Necas has 35pts in 60games
Yamamoto will have a chance to pass all these players in total. Points this season in half the games.
Keep smoking that raw pipe, Bramble Ruxspin.
Looking back at the 2017 draft, I would have Yamamoto behind only: Pettersson, Makar, and Heiskanen.
Early days still, and we’re about to see a number of those players emerge in the next draft or two, but Yammer is looking like a homerun pick.
Close in range are Robert Thomas and Hischier, but Yam fit the Oilers needs to a T.
Yammer fits every teams needs to a T,
Point per game player on an entry level deal
producing in the top 6
The Blue noser closes the gap to 7 with a game in hand.
Not a sign of resilience, to come back against a mid-range team decimated with injuries – odds were in favor of flames to begin with. I recall that they didn’t score 6 to come back against the Oilers last time they played. Besides Flames are Canucks direct competition now that Oilers have broken the orbit, condolences.
Posting numerous stats that show the Flames come back from deficits and win shows they are resilient.
They did the same last season.
You clinging to your RW obsession is odd.
IT. ONLY. MATTERS. IF. THEY, END. UP. TIED. FOR. POINTS.
I think it’s just showing you’re lost, pretty sure the internet has a directory. Try Google.
Dearest Google, who gives thy shit about thy Flames? You’ll find a whole group of people happy to see your gas lighting ways.
Imagine thinking you need to explain how RW wins are important if 2 teams are tied in points at the end of the season, truly yeoman’s work you do.
How did all those comes backs and wins work for the Flames in the playoffs?
– Thanks for this: I just don’t get how when analyzing the two goalies over the season by all measures one can’t conclude that Koski is the better goalie.
– Smith’s stats over the season are inferior to Koski’s last year, clearly inferior to Koski’s this year. The only measure that points to Smith’s superiority this year vs last is wins: and that’s a team thing
– It’s not even debatable, and taking small sample sizes to suggest otherwise is poor, and further proof of reality
– Goalies are streaky to be sure, but how the team plays matter most. Factoring this over the season, there is only one conclusion available.
– Smith certainly gets more rope than Koski: he’s the vet that the coach trusts, he’s his guy. As you point out he gets the more favourable starts. Koski is that overpaid guy from the previous regime: this dynamic always plays out in any organization when new management and coaches come in.
– I have no doubt that Tipp feels that Smith is his #1 goalie, and the team plays hard behind him becasue he’s a winner, a leader, and awesome presence, and all of that can’t be discounted. By all accounts he’s been a benefit to the teams psyche, and that can’b be overlooked
– That said he’s clearly inferior to Koski over the course of this season.
– For a math based blog, this seems to have been ignored and/or not examined. I get it: Smith is in net when the team wins recently, and Koski had a few rough starts. But the ergo isn’t Smith > Koski
– They are an effective tandem. If we had a better goalie than Smith, we’d be even better this year
Posting shootout records shows this? Really?
I want Edm – Cal opening round. It’s been something like 30 years since they’ve met in the playoffs. Make it so hockey gods.
“have an innate ability to come back”. lol
Winning shootouts = winning in OT in the playoffs. lol
this is wonderful information for flames fans maybe you could share it with them.
I am sure this indicates the Flames have an innate ability to come back from being outscored early in many games.
I am also sure that many playoff games go to overtime and the Flames are very, very good at winning games in which they trailed earlier.
But clutch your pearls.
It’s amazing that all of us can visually see the interior pains that are overcoming you. Thank you for this, it’s juno worthy I’m sure.
Gee, I’d think that if they were so good at comeback victories, they might be higher in the standings and not scrapping for their playoff lives. Or, just maybe they are THAT good and they like to spot other teams a lead; you know, to build the drama…..
and in regulation wins which is the first tiebreaker.
I honestly am not sure what this factoid is supposed to show or prove?
That the flames are in a playoff battle because of their ability to win the “non-hockey” part of the game that isn’t applicable in the playoffs?
This is an argument towards the flames inferiority, no?
The flames must have the nhl record for being down 2 goals with less than 10 minutes left, tying it up with the goalie pulled and winning in overtime or the shootout
If the shoutout didn’t exist , would the flames be out of the wild card? I suspect so
Pat Steinberg
@Fan960Steinberg
·
3m
Calgary scores three unanswered vs. with less than nine minutes remaining vs. #CBJ to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 OT win. That’s a huge two points.
Sixth career OT winner for TJ Brodie. Eighth win this season when trailing after 40 minutes, third most in the NHL. #Flames
Good thing we are ahead in the standing and in ROW
you are a real trivia buff.
The Oilers are 2-2 in shootouts…The Flames are 6-1
Well, then you just might me a 2020 Oiler fan…
Imagine your team is resilient enough that no matter the score they believe they can come back and win…and then they do,
Imagine all you want Mr. Notch.
OriginalPouzar,
After looking through the boxscores of every game in Feb. I cannot agree with your conclusion that Smith has been better and more consistent.
First of all, basing your argument on a 7 game sample is classic small sample size. That Koskinen has now a save percentage equal to Smith during this time is called regression.
You did absolutely no accounting for strength of opponent. Playing against popgun offences like ANA and LA is not the same as playing VGP on the back end of a back to back. In fact, who is it that always started the back end of back to backs? Is it Koskinen’s fault that his teammates threw him under the bus in MIN? Remember Calgary, where Smith allowed 3 goals on 17 shots before being tossed or Anaheim where he allowed 4 goals on 21 shots?
Please note that I am not saying that Koskinen has been good in every game. However, Koskinen is a far better goalie than Smith this year. He has fixed (Thanks to Dustin Shwartz?) many of the things that sewered him last year. His balance, stance and angles are much better. His lateral movement is much more controlled.
On the other hand, Mike Smith has the classic Dwayne Roloson gift of making routine saves look spectacular because he has absolutely no lateral movement and is constantly trying to catch up to the play. He can be good because he is a great athlete, but it is not a recipe for long term success.
It is interesting how a number of teams in the East are playing like they don’t really want to make the playoffs.
Imagine being 3rd in your division only winning 35% of your games after 60 minutes.
Werenski spotted them the win. Tipped in the tie goal then hotdogged it the entire OT. Korps did everything in his power.
Good lord. Thanks Torts
CBJ playing OT like there’s a rule against effort.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the playoffs, if played at all, will be played to empty stands.
We finally have a competitive playoff team, but it seems the hockey gods won’t let us shed the Oiler bad luck so easily.
Went in off a Blue Jacket, so Giordano’s goal. Tkachuk just celebrated like it was his.
They are scoring more for Smith, but it’s actually even more interesting than that.
Using per 60 minutes results from Natural Stat Trick (all situations):
(https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL)
SF
Smith —- 29.2
Koskinen 29.3
Shots for are the same.
SA
Smith —- 30.3
Koskinen 32.9
Koskinen is bad for shots against…
GF
Smith —- 3.28
Koskinen 2.86
Despite shots being the same, the team scores more with Smith in net (on ice SH% is 11.2% vs 9.8%).
GA
Smith —- 2.88
Koskinen 2.86
Even though the team allows more shots against with Koskinen in net, he stops more of them, so it’s a wash (On ice SV% is .905 vs .913; PDO is 1017 vs 1011).
So is the GF difference all just percentages/fluke?
SCF
Smith —- 26.4
Koskinen 26.2
Nothing here.
HDCF
Smith —- 11.8
Koskinen 10.0
Huh. Well that’s something that fits with the team scoring more goals in front of Smith.
What about goals against?
SCA
Smith —- 26.2
Koskinen 30.0
That’s interesting too. It fits with Koskinen’s extra shots against. So Koskinen’s actual goaltending looks even more impressive since the team allows more shots and scoring chances. But maybe the extra shots/chances are his fault??
HDCA
Smith —- 10.5
Koskinen 11.0
A little worse for Koskinen here too.
So…
The Oilers have scored more goals (and had more scoring/HD chances) in front of Smith.
And with Smith in net they’ve give up less shots, scoring/HD chances against (but Koskinen’s better goaltending has fully offset the extra chances).
Back to the original question: Yes, the team has performed better with Smith in net. And yeah, that may be playing into Tippett’s decision to anoint Smith the starter.
(I should also note that we don’t know whether there is a bias in difficulty of schedule faced by either goalie, or something else that would skew the data. One thing that comes immediately to mind is that Smith has been starting since January and the Oilers have been on a strong, extended run. Smith is of course contributing to that strong happening, but him being the starter since Jan might also be benefiting his numbers aside from anything he’s doing)
Whether Smith actually is responsible for boosting offence AND helping team defence, or whether this is due to a bias in the games he’s played, or just damn luck, we can’t know for sure. But it does look like it could be something real.
FWIW he did something similar vs Rittich in Calgary last year, but not so much in the 2 years before that. I’ll give it a strong maybe that the team plays better in front of Smith.
Tkachuk… figures.
FFS Blue Jackets
Flames tie it up – damn.
2 – 1 CBJ with a couple of minutes left.
Edit. 2-2 and headed to OT
I guess I’m watching the last few minutes of this game as Lindholm has cut the lead to 1 – under 3 to go.
Some homer refereeing a few minutes earlier.
Edit now the Puke scores.
Darnell lit him up in Penticton young guns tourney 2015
https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/129615