This is a graph that appeared on this blog the summer Darnell Nurse was drafted. It shows Nurse as a solid even-strength contributor in points, but well shy as a power-play option. These things have remained true throughout his NHL career.
When you watch Nurse play, there’s a thought he must be a shutdown type with all of that size, but he isn’t that player, either. Nurse is a two-way type who doesn’t dominate offensively and doesn’t shut down with strong defensive reads.
Oilers fans take apart Nurse’s game from sunrise to sunset, but his GA-60 at five-on-five this season is superior to Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. You can read about it here.
The goal share is lower, partly because Nurse plays 300 fewer minutes with Connor McDavid than Evan Bouchard, and because 50 fewer minutes with Leon Draisaitl than Evan Bouchard.
Nurse has had a better year defending than the Ekholm-Bouchard tandem, in pure GA-60 terms (five-on-five). What the team must do is have Nurse defend less, to find a way to create offense when he’s on the ice. That means better players when he’s on the ice. I have more thoughts about Paul Coffey and what he can do with this team in the article linked above. I hope you find time to read it.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS UPDATED NUMBERS
Ike Howard is fading, Quinn Hutson too, but the AHL veterans like James Hamblin and Seth Griffith are picking up the slack. The Condors have a deep group, and an appearance by Matt Savoie and the return of Josh Samanski represents real quality. I imagine Samanski is back for good, and look forward to seeing Howard-Samanski-Hutson as a regular trio.
Alec Regula struggled badly in his last few appearances with the big club, so his strong performance last night has to be encouraging for player and organization. Atro Leppanen is starting to impact the offense again, I don’t see him in the NHL this season but maybe he’ll grab a job in 2027-28. I’m not sure Damien Carfagna is behind him on the depth chart even now.
Watching the replay of the GWG and over & over I’m like WTF MacKinnon. He had the race to the puck won. All he had to do was poke it into the corner or chop if off the boards. Instead he pulled up. Terrible play.
And how did McDavid not disrupt the pass across to Hughes???
Frustrating.
I agree with you on MacKinnon. Looked like he could have got to that puck in time. When he hesitated, it looked like he realized if he didn’t get there, it was a 3 on 0. Makar and McDavid could have been better on the back check. Just a terrible OT from the three of them really
Agreed
Not sure what 29 was thinking there
Hellebuyck finally has a signature victory. Goalies are part of the team.
There are a lot of nitpicky things.
Hate three on three deciding these things. The Americans have more complete players to manage the three on three.
Bummer that Brayden Point was not healthy. I think he was the player most missed by Canada (especially when Crosby got hurt). Canada needed one of them.
Binnington saved the game multiple times again. Canada dominated almost the entire game. Countless chances to score including gaping empty nets for Toews and MacKinnon. Defence was just fine and Canada was clearly the better team out there. It’s hockey, so the better team doesn’t necessarily win every game.
On Toews, Hellebuyck just made an incredible save.
On MacKinnon….I just can’t comprehend how he misses that.
(Or how McDavid and Celebrini come up so weak on breakaways.)
xG about 4.5 to 2 seem right?
The roster challenges that most around here envisioned came up to bite them on the ass.
I don’t actually think the roster was that bad. Our goaltending was the weakest – not much we could do about that.
Parayko was probably a weak pick, and Bouch should have at least gone as the seventh D-man. But I thought Harley and Sanheim (both questionable picks) looked fairly good. Doughty was OK and provided leadership when Crosby went out. I also thought Horvat (another marginal pick) acquitted himself well.
Jarvis over Hyman (or Bedard) was probably not a great pick. But I don’t think roster construction was really the issue. There is just too much randomness in a short tournament.
Schaefer, Bédard, Bouchard and Hyman … maybe Team Canada management will learn not to leave their most talented players at home next time.
Seth Jarvis was invisible out there. What was he doing on this roster?
Taking Point’s place due to injury.
Unless you meant this as a rhetorical question — then disregard above.
Should’ve been Hyman; they had Jarvis on the wing, not at C. Too small and not quick enough. Invisible, except as a bench warmer.
I would have had Hyman over Jarvis too. More versatile and does more when Hes not scoring.
Maybe. But the team they picked was the best team in the tournament. Don’t think any of those guys help Toews or MacKinnon shoot the puck into the empty net
Well. Now like McD at 4 Nations Mathews can finally say he won something. Hellybuck too.
Please – the 4 Nations Cup was an exhibition series. The only things that matter are Cups and Olympic gold medals. McDavid is 0-3 in those games.
Sure. But McD himself commented that it’d been 8 years since he’d won anything and how he’d straight up forgotten that feeling.
Are you kidding me? 4 Nations was best-on-best, the first time in 9 years. The competition was every bit as good at 4 Nations. You can say the stage wasn’t as big, but with the geopolitical tensions at the time, I thought it was just as big.
I would agree. That gold medal game last year felt every bit as real as this today, maybe more so (and no Im not just saying that because we lost today).
Three forwards on the ice on the GWer, and none of them the next Bob Gainey.
Cale Makar was on the ice.
Oops, I was wrong. Typed before my brain’s controller got plugged back in. lol
All good.
Maker ‘on the ice’ but doing some serious coasting on the back check.
Only players on team USA of note that game were Helly and Boldy’s one play.
Deserved the win but didn’t get it.
No finish today. So many chances, no finish.
Squeezed the sticks just a little too
tight.
Damn shame.
Idiotic that Bouchard wasn’t on that team. Truly idiotic.
If Bouch was out there in OT instead of Makar, Canada wins
Does the PP go 0-3 if Bouchard is on the team?
Also good point. Let me rephrase.
If Bouch was on the team, Canada wins in regulation.
US didn’t give up a single short-handed goal all tournament. That (and goaltending) is the one area where they really deserve credit this game.
There was a lot of uncharacteristic fumbling of the puck. I think the pace of the USA caused players’ brains to shot-circuit a little.
But we needed GRIT on the team! Never mind skill, GRIT will make Canadian hockey great again!
GRIIIIIIIIIT, baby!
Too bad Fredrick is American.
They needed Hyman. Forecheck machine.
Yep – instead they brought Jarvis. If they weren’t going to take Hyman, than Bédard would have been more useful than Jarvis … needed more one shot scorers.
Well, at least we will have a new management team for the next Olympics. Doug Armstrong is an idiot for his personnel choices. I feel for McDavid.
To be fair, his back was probably getting sore from carrying MacKinnon.
Think a pissed-off McDavid might go champagne supernova the rest of the season?
Yes! Stoking the fire.
We can keep dreaming but he’s never won at any level. I love him a feel for him but he’s the opposite of Crosby at this moment.
This is my concern too.
He is this generation’s Yzerman (pre-Cups, of course). Let’s hope it doesn’t take 14 seasons like Stevie Y…
He literally scored the OT winning golden goal against the best competition in a best-on-best tournament, at a time of massive geopolitical tension between the two nations.
My goodness do we ever have a lot of self-loathing around here.
I hope this causes McDavid and the Oilers to crank it up for the playoffs.
Canada played well in this tournament. Probably should have won the game, but just getting the better of most plays isn’t always enough.
McDavid can beat his guy wide like that at will, but his finish % on that play is ridiculously low. I’ve been saying the Oilers should have set plays from that position. He is pulling his man down low and the goalie has to respect the cut across.
Set plays. Find openings.
Out shot them 42-28. Offensive zone time edge was surely even more than that.
US won the game, and congrats to them.
But there is no doubt who was the better team. And who remains the better hockey nation.
I’ll stand by that 100%.
All true!!
All that gets you is a silver medal.
McDavid is always the bridesmaid, after all these years he still can’t find his check.
Yes. Mostly goalie and no finish from players who’s job is to finish
Canada had the better skaters, no doubt – goalie is part of the team thought and goaltending advantage for the US was a pre-tournament advantage that became reality.
The US reminded me of the Czechs in 1998 (or the Sabres around that time). Not an elite team, but an elite goaltender.
I mean, we dominated the US.
I’m sick of this feeling. 3 years in a row of absolute heartbreak.
29 defended that very poorly
All three of them let off the gas in a pivotal moment.
The rest were fine. All he needed to do was chop it up the boards over the blue to negate the rush
Poor stick position
Yeah, he should have been aggressive on that puck – he could have swept it to the corner while the other two guys recovered. But it’s a tough call, and needless to say, he doesn’t have a lot of experience as a D defending a 3-on-1.
I think he’ll be kicking himself a lot more for missing that wide open net earlier. My goodness.
100%, said that earlier, MacKinnon could have/should have prevented that opportunity.
Rough shift for Makar and MacKinnon on that goal
MacKinnon not great on that winning goal – he could have got to that puck first and backed off last second then lost the battle – combine that with the missed empty net.
McDavid not a great game.
MacKinnon and McDavid were terrible on the GWG.
29 was major culprit on that goal. Outcompeted
Assuming he wasnt 100%
Not his usual dynamic play most of the tourney
That’s just terrible. WTH was Connor doing out there trying to go 1 on 3? Awful to lose in this way after dominating the game.
McDavid was covering no one after losing possession in the US end. MacKinnon lost the battle for the puck.
Both Mcdavid and makar dog assed back. If either would have skated they would have been able to affect the play.
hate to say but it’s a persistent flaw in McD’s game. Don’t expect it or need it all the time, but this was definitely one of those times.
Yes it is. The regular season not backtracking is a gamble worth taking maybe. But certainly not in this game.
Canada didn’t have enough grit along. Bring more grit next time! Grit uber alles!
I don’t think lack of grit was an issue in losing this game.
In fact, I exchanging some “gritty d-men” for some more dynamic d-men likely makes a difference.
If that gets ruled offside, it would be hilarious.
What a horrible way to end this game. I hate 3 on 3.
Ouch.
Damn. Great game should’ve won it in the 3rd
Sloppy sloppy sloppy
Another poor decision, fudge
McDavid with the dry fire!
What a save
Here we go! My heart is pounding.
Someone tell me they buried a loonie at center ice…
I still don’t know how on earth MacKinnon missed that open net.
See those bags under his eyes? Maybe a concussion or he isn’t adapting to the time zone change.
As we’ve seen in the NHL, puck possession will be key 3on3.
Bouch could be useful in ot.
And Draisaitl. Is he available now?
If Bennett or Marchand scores in OT I’ll be happy but I’ll interpret it as some kind of cosmic joke on me.
As long as it is a Canadian who scores, I won’t care who it is.
Almost no chance either play.
They probably run 3 forward pairs.
This won’t go past 5-7 minutes, if that – in all likelihood.
If this goes to 6 OT and I miss my lunch appointment I’ll hold you accountable.
Marchand is sneaky. Good at getting lost behind the d. Sure be nice to have Bouch to pass it up there.
Bennett is unplayable in this ot. Too much risk. Like Kane in the finals.
He should be out for D zone faceoffs only. Win the draw and get off the ice.
True, but you’re not likely gonna play him 3-on-3 anyways. His line is great on the boards, but that’s not the name of the 3-on-3 game.
Binnington gives Canada an extra d out there. His puck moving ability may be the difference.
3 on 3 OT horrible way to decide this game.
Agreed.
I have a bad feeling Mackinnon is going to rip it wide and send the USA in on a 3 on 1
I hate 3 on 3 for all the marbles but McD Makar Macklin…?
Each team has several guys who would take advantage of the open ice. Strategy and a brilliant individual play is going to end this.
Hugh’s scares me in OT
Hellybuyck vs Binnington scares me
I think Hellebuyck is the better goalie but arguably the lack of structure in front on 3v3 hurts him more
samesamesame
need McD n Co to preempt him.
also win the damn faceoff.
Well, we do have Makar
What are the OT rules in the gold medal game?
3-3 sudden death
3-on-3. No shootouts (thank goodness). Regular breaks between periods.
So many missed chances.
Fantastic PP. Unfortunate they didn’t score.
No matter the outcome today Canada was the better team.
100%
100%.
There’s a lot of luck in hockey. But through 60 minutes there is zero question that we are better. By a lot.
The US have had the lions share of luck in this game.
100% with the caveat that the goaltender is part of the team and Helly has been massive.
You’re right but the Tkachuks aren’t going to care about that…
Celebrini mackinnon toews 😭
wth
All game. Passing off so many open looks.
Well, if you offered to take both Bennett and Hughes off the ice at the same time, I’d take that option, any day.
Very dangerous, outshooting but get goalied
Holy moly, high drama! Cmon boys need a PP goal!!