One of the things Ken Holland said after arriving in Edmonton surrounded improving the bottom-six forwards. Two of his moves, adding Markus Granlund and Josh Archibald, are designed to shore up that area of the roster. Both men bring some offense and utility. Holland needs a third-line center and a scoring winger. He isn’t done. Right?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- New Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- New Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
- New Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
- Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
- Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
COYOTES 2016-17 FORWARDS
Dave Tippett’s final Coyotes team didn’t have a lot of scoring power up front and there weren’t many useful veterans. He ran his best young offensive forward (Domi) with his best center and scoring winger (Hanzal and Vrbata). Then he cobbled together something resembling a checking line (Martinook trio) and ran what was left on the 2 and 4 lines. His most successful line was Perlini-Dvorak-Doan, outscoring opponents 12-6 in 292 minutes. What is the Oilers equivalent of Perlini-Dvorak-Doan?
OILERS 2018-19 FORWARDS
Tippett’s top line in Edmonton should be able to outscore opponents this season, but the 2-4 lines are going to be a challenge. I’ve put together a checking line (sans center) for the No. 3 group and a fourth line that should be able to outscore the soft parade. Nuge is an orphan again. I’m fascinated to see how Tippett runs his lines. Note: I’m not running Gagner on the Nuge line because I don’t like Samwise against elites 35-40 percent of the time. He should be a more productive player on the No. 4 line imo.
A quick note on Josh Archibald. I think Tippett will use him up and down the order, but am hopeful the team finds a No. 3 center who can run with him. If the duo can outscore at five-on-five and PK, that’s a helluva value for a $1 million winger.
It’s 70 percent yes after 4,000 votes, I think it’ll finish around that number. Twitter isn’t the best gauge but it does give us an indication of the direction of the fan base.
BENSON VERSUS LUCIC
This is a battle that is likely to be fought during the 2019-20 season. Odds favor Benson starting the year in Bakersfield, as new management and coaching staff talk up Lucic (“he’s in the best shape of his life!”). The long game favors the youngster. Let’s review the production of each man during the final 25 games of 2018-19:
Milan Lucic: 25, 1-5-6, 22 shots (NHL)
Tyler Benson: 25, 10-22-32, 63 shots (AHL)
Even if you cut the Benson numbers in half, there’s plenty of horsepower there. Holland and Tippett may plan to slow play the yutes, but they’re not going to be ridiculous about elevating men like Benson.
THE KIDS ON BLUE
I assume you read all of Jonathan Willis’ pieces, so recommending one seems a bit over the top. Still, his article on puck movers (here) is outstanding and a must read. If you look at the depth charts for left and right defense (here), and remember Tippett took Chychrun for his NHL roster while he was still a child, suddenly training camp becomes a lot more interesting.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Friday!! We kickstart the weekend at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports at 10:20 to talk media, live mic CFL and summer holidays. Matt Iwanyk will be live at 11:05 to talk about the Eskimos and The Open. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Bad contract for bad contract. I can live with this.
I hope Neal can be be a good setup man next year for Nuge. Last thing I want is for the Oilers to have to cough up that 3rd next year.
I really hope they don’t play him with McD – That would be beyond foolish, IMO.
Regardless of performance, it looks like another smart bet.
I agree. I was just throwing Maroon out as a suggestion. I like the idea of acquiring speedy players who are good 5 on 5. Maroon was good in the playoffs but didnt do much 5 on 5 for the blues all year. I also think Benson might already be a better option.
Id target a 3C now and then move Russell once 2 of Jones, Bouchard and Samorukov seem ready to open up cap space for next year. This team is still on the outside of playoffs imo unless goaltending surprises.
Good trade for Holland. More smart bets please 🙂
My understanding is it’s the same since Neal does not have bonuses in his contract. That is buy him out next year and it’s about $1.9 mil times 6 against the cap. Buy him out 2021 and it’s 4 times $1.9 mil. That is of course ignoring the Lucic retention costs.
This is the biggest win for the Oilers. We were all hoping we could somehow get out of Looch contract and most would have been happy at half the cost.
It’s a beautiful morning…….
Although I would still not trade 18-19 Lucic for Neal, the trajectory in Lucic’s last three years of TOI and P/60 makes Neal a much better bet for 19-20. Last year was his first really bad one.
So for a plausible scenario, let’s say Neal is good enough this year they don’t buy him out, but the following season he falls off a cliff again, seemingly for good. What does a 2021 buyout look like? 2020 appears to be just under 2MM for the next 6 seasons if I’ve read right.
I think there is one contributor in particular that was uneasy about the trade and hasn’t been seen since the details were made official.
Holland says Neal will get a real opportunity in the top 6 to play with the skilled centres.
Neal says he thinks he can score 30.
Seems aggressive but, shit, why not? The man can shoot the pill.
Let’s go this!
OriginalPouzar,
It counts as retained salary for the next 4 years, it’s not tied to Neal. So if we trade or buy out Neal it’s not part of those transactions.
I’d like to think of it as Chiarelli tax.
I think the comparison is:
Neal at $6.5M – with his current contract
vs
Lucic at $6M – with his current contract
That’s the swap.
I bet Peter Chiarelli saw the news, chuckled to himself knowingly and said to no-one in particular
‘That’s a terrible trade. See, missing me already’
Of course. Yes the buy out and skill potential/production upgrades are obvious.
Just trying to temper my enthusiasm with a small dose of reoilty
I was near Balls Creek Nova Scotia (seriously) for a wedding rehearsal (wife standing not me) when my phone started blowing up about the trade and I didn’t have enough service to get the details and see if I’d be happy about it.
I’m happy!
I think it’s fair to say we’ll all be pretty happy if the Oilers send that pick over
Seems like neither player was happy where he was and limited shits were given.
Neal is going to have a nice little rebound to prove himself, we get one good year out of him and then we buy him out.
Lovely jubbly
The ‘Ken Holland doesn’t know what he’s doIng’ bandwagon has gone very quiet…
Holland’s strategy this summer is clearly to build carefully on hope and prayers for this season while opening up cap space for next years UFA crop/cap space casualities. His legacy as Oiler GM will come down to the 2020 summer spending being fruitful and not a bunch of anchor contracts.
This season comes down to hope. I do believe there’s better hope in Neal actually doing something useful but the big win is likely the buyout structure. IF Neal can be a proper top 6 winger it’s a massive win but that if is even more massive than the possible win.
If Lucic gone means a locker room issue gone that’s a good thing as well but when media starts leaking tyat type of stuff when a player has left/is about to leave after lauding his leadership all through his struggles the last couple of season I start to wonder if it’s just spin. The older captain comment is kind of a smoking gun though as it’s not exactly an endorsment of Connor’s leadership qualities. But that could just as likely be clumsy phrasing from Milan.
Since 05-06 to 18-19
Top 10 LW evg season rank
1 – Maroon 16-17 81gm 24 evg
2 – Hall 15-16 82gm 22 evg
4 – Hall 13-14 75gm 20 evg
10 – Maroon 17-18 57gm 14 evg; played 17 gm in NJ for 3 evg.
Have allways beat the drum for Maroon.
He is a superior option for winger on Mcdavid line.
But would his play take away from Draisaitl,s production
or
a perfect compliment to Draisaitl s new right side tight angle release.
Mcdavid & Draisaitl were 24 evg each in 888 EVTOI this year.
Over 154 games
maroon w/
Mcdavid 1392 29 evg
Draisaitl 1138 24 Evg
XXX – Mcdavid – Draisaitl
Neal – RNH – Kassian
XXX – XXX – granlund
Would be 6 forwards with 1st line evg seasons by position in last 3 seasons.
We sit with
Chaisson LW/RW31 evg last 3 seasons @ wing 10.3333 evg per
He was 1 evg shy of 1st line RW production.
Archibald RW physical #12 PK forward in league
with 17 evg 1237 EVTOI last 2 years.
13.75 evg per 1000 EVTOI a 1st line pace.
Gagner RW/C 22 evg in 2.3 season of games last 3 yr @ wing 9.5 evg per.
Jurco
Khaira #31 PK forward last year.
Brodziak a DZ% eater.
We need to run a physical presence when lucic is on the ice with Mcdavid.
To me that screams Maroon.
Would love to dump 1 of our rovers but Klefbom & Nurse need the opportunity to prove they can attack without abandoning their defensive responsibility which Holland, Tippett, Playfair want.
Tippett was able to have OEL play a Def responsible game.
Who he learned from a good HD dman group in Phoenix.
Not top but all above average
Aucoin
Schlemko
Rozival
Klesla
Michalek
Yandle
Which lead to 3 playoff seasons with
202 ga
224 ga
206 ga
In 12-13 his team yeilded a 131 goals a 222ga season pace.
Next 4 years saw a move to a 3-1-1-1 sentric roster.
231ga
272ga
245ga
260ga
Not his style of game.
We shall see how Klefbom does.
With the current insane wages for Dmen.
An avg HD Klefbom @ 4.167M would be fine on the roster if he faces lower comp.
McDavid and Draisaitl can set the high tempo for 19-20min per game scoring 80 goals between them and RNH and Neal can put in 45-50 goals on the 2nd line between the 2 of them at 16-17 min per game. In a perfect world with current players:
Kassian McDavid Draisaitl
Puljujarvi RNH Neal
Chaisson Granlund Achibibald/Hass
Nygard Kharia Gagner/Jurco
Man that looks so much better than last year. I honestly think that if some of these new forwards have a strong start we could trade Gagner. And if a couple rookie defensemen step up we can trade Russell freeing up a total of 7 plus million this season while getting some draft picks.
Holland’s strategy is looking pretty good so far. We need a couple of his gambles to pay off though.
Ken has brought in a little bit more Talent and upgraded seem slightly overall but this is a 78 Point team but even then maybe there in 85 point team now at least have a chance.
“You’re telling me there’s a chance”
Happily eating crow tonight. The untradeable player has been traded.
Retaining 750k hurts a little but it’s a small price to pay. I’m betting the conditional 3rd doesn’t happen, but if it does, Oilers easily win the trade this year.
I’m guessing Neal will be just as bad, or worse, than Lucic next year. AND IT JUST DOESN’T MATTER. Holland can buy him out next summer and have 3.3 million in cap space.
Hard to believe some posters still won’t give Holland any credit but this was the move that had to be made. Lucic was 6 million of dead cap space for the next 4 yesrs. I think Holland looked at his year to year depth chart over that time and realized he was always going to struggle as long as that contract was on the books. Easily his biggest accomplishment so far, and honestly more than I was hoping for this summer.
Back of the napkin calculation shows the Oilers/Katz took on approx $7M in real dollars with the transaction today
Seems like a reasonable trade for both teams. Retention on Lucic makes him easier to trade next season. Neal is more likely to rebound, better buyout.
oilersfan,
Isn’t it fair to look at this trade as signing a reclamation player (see Chiasson but with far better pedigree) for $500k/yr x term IF you assumed Lucic was a sunk cost (untradeable). You did potentially give up a third round pick, but you save a roster spot, create the ability to trade the contract, shorten term or reduce cap hit if bought out. Am I looking at this wrong? Feels better than having Lucic and signing Marleau.
Either “Culture” is simply the aura of winning that is slowly worn from players who have been ground into losers by inept leaders… or culture is a buzzword that basically means “guys I like”.
Andy Dufresne,
How do I square this with the ‘culture change’ Milan was going to bring to the organization on the press day to announce him as Oiler. Thats a regrettable quote not the least of which is the shade thrown towards Connor.
In KEN WE TRUST
I hear you, but Maroon was a strong player for the Oilers. He was 59.6GF% with McDavid and 53.6GF% without. Speed is great, but Maroon got results. His year wasn’t that bad. I would definitely be open to bringing him back, especially given the price at this point in the summer.
That’s the beauty of the Neal-Lucic deal. There is no risk (unless I suppose if Lucic can rebound to a 20G/40P player).
1) Neal is far more likely (IMO) to rebound to a top 6 player than Lucic.
2) If that doesn’t happen the Neal buyout is far far more forgiving than a Lucic buyout.
As I see it there is no risk. It’s effectively 100% certain that James Neal (the player or the buyout) will be better for the Oilers than Milan Lucic would have been.
Interesting that they didn’t put in trade protection in case Lucic scores 21 or more and Neal gets 10 less? Hm? 🙂
+1
i disagree. we dont need more slow players. Neal was the price you pay to rid of Lucic. a good bet. Dont bring in more slow players. Pattty had a poor yr outside of a decent playoffs.
More speed pls
I’d rather Holland try to pry Pavel Buchnevich out of NYR. JP + something?
There is always risk but this is a step in the right direction.
The bottom six is better (addition by subtraction).
And the top six has the potential to be better.
I get JACK BLACK a lot and of couse JOE BLACK.
But I am a JAMES BLACK
401
400
Ha! Fair enough, and I was actually going to add in the part about the Lucic retention to my post as well but got lazy. So yeah, effectively $2.7 X 3 and then $1.9 X 3.
Those are still ugly numbers to be looking at, but I’m just tickled with this deal.
Maroon would be a good add for sure. I think I’d put him with Nuge (they were good together too) and leave McDavid’s line intact.
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Maroon-Nuge-Neal
We might be calling Holland the magic man.
It would open a lot if he could find a taker for Russell. I’d assume a cheaper vet D would be brought in then – 4 NHL D and a bunch of kids could go off the rails pretty quickly due to injury. Kronwall, Phaneuf, Hutton? There’s a few still out there that could handle the 4/5 slot I think.
But Russell out and a D under $2M in would open up enough for a JP for JP+ trade (since Pageau is only 1 yr from UFA).
I looked at the top Edmonton Oilers even goal scorers since the lockout 05-06.
14 seasons ago. Only included those with first line evg rates by position.
C 15-16 evg
LW 15 evg
RW 14 evg
Minimum 48gm includes 12-13
I ranked them by even goal mass.( totals)
Not per game cause missed games is a performance issue.
But with equal totals, I ranked the best per gm player first.
If that was the same than the most recent season.
1 – Mcdavid 17-18 82gm 35 evg
2 – Mcdavid 18-19 78gm 31 evg
3 – Draisaitl 18-19 82gm 31 evg
4 – Mcdavid 16-17 82gm 26 evg
5 – Eberle 11-12 78gm 24 evg
6 – Maroon 16-17 81gm 24 evg
7 – Penner 09-10 82gm 23 evg
8 – RNH 14-15 76gm 22evg
9 – Hall 15-16 82gm 22evg
10 – Torres 05-06 82gm 21 evg
11 – Hall 13-14 75gm 20 evg
12 – Eberle 13-14 80 gm 20 evg
13 – Hemsky 08-09 72gm 19 evg
14 – Perron 13-14 78gm 19 evg
15 – RNH 18-19 82gm 19 evg
16 – Draisaitl 16-17 82gm 19 evg
17- RNH 17-18 62gm 18 evg
18 – Eberle 15-16 69gm 18 evg
19 – Eberle 14-15 81gm 18 evg
20 – Smyth 06-07 53gm 16 evg
21 – Draisaitl 17-18 78gm 16 evg
22 – Horcoff 05-06 79gm 16 evg
23 – Eberle 16-17 82gm 16 evg
24 – Sykora 05-06 82gm 16 evg
25 – Horcoff 07-08 53gm 15 evg
26 – RNH 11-12 62gm 15 evg
27 – Brûle 09-10 65gm 15 evg
28 – Smyth 05-06 75gm 15 evg
29 – Jones 10-11 81gm 15 evg
30 – Smyth 11-12 82gm 15 evg
31 – Cogliano 07-08 82gm 15 evg
32 – Penner 10-11 62gm 14 evg
33 – Kassian 18-19 79 gm 14 evg
The number seasons for top past & current oilers.
Eberle 5 of 7 seasons
RNH 4 of 8 seasons
Mcdavid 3 of 4 seasons
Draisaitl 3 of 4 seasons
Smyth 3 of 5 seasons – remember since 05-06
Penner 2 of 4 seasons
Hall 2 of 6 seasons
Horcoff 2 of 8 seasons
Kassian 1 of 3 seasons
Hall & Kassians 1 of every 3 seasons was surprising.
RNH – Kassian pair over last 3 seasons has yeilded one of RNH best combined evg/60 forward pairs.
I will never forgive PC for trading one of the most consistent EVg scorers in the game. Eberle.
The above unquestionable fact based list was provided by NHL.com/stats
Per Nat stat.
Neal since 05-06
08-09 77gm 15 evg
09-10 78gm 24 evg
10-11 79gm 17 17evg
11-12 80gm 20 evg
13-14 59gm 16 evg
14-15 67gm 20evg
15-16 82gm 27 evg
16-17 70 gm 18 evg
17-18 71gm 20 evg
9 of 10 48+ gm seasons.
With tippet likely switching to a more dominate 3-2-1 system.
Their hopefully is a comfort level for what might be one the 5 most prolific evg fwds on the team.
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Neal, Eberle, RNH.
You want your center to be a top EVG scorer while being the critical pass distributed on a line.
Kassian was a 1st line evg scoring RW.
One of the 33 fwd occurrences since 05-06.
Chaisson just missed with 13 evg this year.
We also have granlund who had
16 evg RW season in 16-17
10 evg RW season this year. Clear 2 Nd line.
Archibald was 12 evg this season.
Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian/ Chaisson
Neal – RNH – Granlund/ Kassian
Archibald/jurco – xxx /Granlund – Gagner
Lol…I was just editing my original post for clarity…
I was including the Lucic retention in the calculation. It’s not part of the buyout of course, but it has to be figured into the decision making process. The 750k retention will fall off in the last 3 years of the buyout
Hey I was JP 20 odd years before Jesse was. I was posting here before he was drafted as well 🙂
Agreed.
But according to CapFriendly it’s $1,916,667 for all 6 yrs.
Is that you Jesse??
Perfect game alert in Seattle – through 8.
What that would not facilitate is a Neal buyout by the Oilers. It’s a very real possibility and would cost $1.9M X 6 yrs if it happens next summer.
Neal was every bit as bad as Lucic last season. I hope rebounds, but if he doesn’t get all the way back to 20+ goals and 40+ points a buyout is probably the best route forward.
I’d forgotten about Maroon..I could see that happening if the price is right
I’d love Pageau but money is tight…Kenny would have to pull another rabbit out of the hat
You gotta wonder if the oilers are thinking of adding Maroon and moving Drai to RW.
Bring in JP Pageau?
Move Russell?
Trade JP.
If the over under on the Oilers remaining moves this summer was 1.5, what would u take? Id bet over.
OmJo,
Sounds like a guy that will not waive to go to Seattle
I think the comparison is $5.25 v. $6.5 million (Neal’s $5.75 plus Lucic’s 750k).
I’d rather have Neal, even apart from the better buyout terms and the extra expansion draft slot netted by shipping out a NTC. Lucic has been going downhill too long to expect it was an aberration, Neal might pot 20 this year.