I don’t recall an offseason that left this much business so late into summer. There are like 30 rfa’s to sign (Jesse Puljujarvi is one) and there are several attractive UFA’s. Edmonton doesn’t have much money left, but there’s room for a depth signing. Who are the candidates?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
- Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
THE CANDIDATES
This is goals-per-60 and points-per-60 at five-on-five
Tomas Vanek 1.02 2.21
Jason Pominville 1.08 2.01
Brock McGinn 0.45 1.35
Patrick Marleau 0.58 1.16
Patrick Maroon 0.54 1.08
Riley Sheahan 0.46 1.05
Brian Boyle 0.83 1.02
Magnus Paajarvi 0.53 1.00
Derick Brassard 0.61 0.94
Edmonton needs help at centre, so Brassard, Boyle and Sheahan would be likely targets. I don’t know how many PTO’s the Oilers will sign, and it could be a straight one-year deal. Among wingers, Vanek might be a solid power-play addition.
The Oilers do have some internal solutions on the wing. Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody could push for jobs and realistically it would be tough for management to send either back if they find chem with established players.
If we use 30 points NHLE as the line in the sand, then Marody, Benson, Gambardella, Nygard and Kirill Maksimov are the options. I don’t think Maksimov makes the grade (Holland will likely slow play him), so the four remaining are your pool of possibles. What about something like this?
Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal
Markus Granlund—Derick Brassard—Josh Archibald
Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Sam Gagner
I don’t think it will go that way (Neal and Chiasson are the safe second-line wingers) but if you are Dave Tippett and Benson (or Marody) show well, it’s an option that has to be contemplated.
HAYDEN HAWKEY
College goalie is now free to sign, and his resume is strong. Oilers gave up an asset to acquire an asset, and then set it free. Management changes leave orphans all over hell’s half acre.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning, TSN1260 beginning at 10. DTonSC joins us at 10:20 to preview the CFL weekend, DraftKings Sports Book Director Johnny Avillo pops in later and we’ll talk Jays as well. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Alright, thanks for the explanation. And yes, for sure the Oilers would likely be in a better spot without a salary cap considering Katz is willing to spend his money (though the Katz Oilers certainly wouldn’t be the only team spending more without cap constraints).
To the original point – would it be easier to build a cup winner following a McDavid trade now or pre cap? Effectively, can you win a McDavid trade? I still think that’s much harder to do in a cap league. In any case, hopefully the team can improve despite themselves so we never need to test the theory.
The talk about Katz and Lucic/Russell was secondary part of the conversation when we/I mentioned that we wouldn’t be in this situation in the pre-cap world (likely) – the struggles and limitations on building due to salary cap reasons. We’d be able to continue to acquire assets to make the team better notwithstanding previous mistakes (like Lucic) that prohibit/limit improvements. Due to that, the team likely wouldn’t be struggling and have to improve incremental and there wouldn’t be talk about McDavid may asking out.
I don’t understand how not being constrained by the cap devalues McDavid, the best player in the game. I seriously don’t comprehend the connection to Lucic and Russell here.
I’m arguing that in a cap world a team can’t afford to pay (at least beyond a very narrow window) a “fair” return for McDavid. Pre cap it was more possible that a team could pay, and keep intact for a number of years, the multiple good players they’d get for trading a player like McDavid.
He will not be the highest paid player in the NHL – no chance. But , we wait if course
I’ll have to disagree.
In my opinion he’s made numerous little improvements that should, in aggregate, move the team forward – nope, not massive improvements but incremental improvements for the current team while concurrently making moves (and avoiding non-moves) to set the team up for more material improvements over the next two years.
The plan is clear and, so far, is on course.
In a pre-cap world, there is no salary cap limitation so a rich owner willing to spend is a huge asset. We are hundcuffed by the salary cap, however, if it was pre-cap, oh well, we can just buy more assets – we don’t have to try and dispose of assets at a loss in order to purchase new ones.
Milan Lucic and Kris Russell taking up $10M wouldn’t matter – we could have been in the game for Panarin and Karlsson for example even with those other two under contract.
Seth Jones
Sure he has, added a decent goalie option in case Koskinen falls off the map, and changed our bottom six from prospects and Chia’s 94’s (when has a GM ever picked players by birthdates instead of talent before?) who can’t play repeatable NHL-quality shifts with inexpensive players on short contracts who can play repeatable NHL quality shifts in a Tippett-style system, some of which can add secondary scoring.
Not sexy goal scoring options, but things that help NHL teams win games.
Presumably we are headed for another ice age or mini ice age so is this what you are saying?
Bling:
What heats the earth.
How good is a model that say the heat is a single variable.
UV that is .3 percent of ray spectrums that hit the earth.
When sun is at peak energy cycle (Solar Flaring) UV is 0 so which creates a negative value in standard Nature vs non natural analysis.
The sun is zero so it must be man.
Current internationally accepted modelists:
Think the sun does not heat the earth.
Based on the affects assigned.
Current tera formative physical analysis is best described in Minkovich Cycle.
Change in eccentric angle cycle over 100,000 to 40,000 years
But current Climate Forcing modeling and data sees a half cycle between 10,900 too 12,900 years.
The greater forces of the natural climate forcing model is dependent on all solar data.
Earth gets hot.
Then the earth cools.
In more cycles than Tera deposition data.
The deposition is an avg of the smaller glacial cycles.
Not at minkoviches 100,000 to 40,000 year cycles
But climate forced oscillating cycles.
Climate forcing experts say we are at peak heat energy from sun.
It is highly complex looks at known micro variant cycles in weather and Tera formed data.
Not a moment in time looks of current climate modellers.
You see a lot of simple climate modellers post studies that tell us the Ice will melt in x years.
Usually less than a century!
The publication of these reports follow a known seasonal micro cycle.
They come out at peak hot point of micro cycle.
Nothing during the time through the cycle.
Then another doom and gloom group of reports at peak heat point of known micro cycle.
It is a brilliant dissertation by a climate forcing modelists that shows what morons current simple climate modelists are.
I really was worried about my children’s future.
Re: Climate
Until a guy at work showed we were at high point of 10,900 year glacial cycle.
That the peak micro cycling points we were seeing was causing mass degradation of internals critical transformers in the seperate unit yards.
Transformer oil analysis program paid off.
He suggested we have a shared spare transformer program with same transformer competitors.
We had spares at sheerness.
I saw spares cycle out quickly over a 5 year period.
No need in last 2 years.
Peak of the peak of the peak.
The report on simple climate modelists reports was fucking funny.
Peak Hot – Boo
Cycling through nothing, nothing, nothing
Peak Hot – Boo
Cycling thru: nothing, nothing, nothing
Peak hot – Boo
I agree it might take a “while” (like a couple more seasons). But you just said “7 years at least”. There’s no way it takes that long for someone else to sign for $12.5M.
Precisely. A GM is not paying more than McDavid for a while. We will see of course but it will be longer than most think. He’s the best player since Crosby, Mario, and Wayne.
It took some real balls to make Panarin (18th in scoring with a career high 87 points) the 2nd highest paid player on the planet. I don’t think it will take long to go up another $850k but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Interesting you mention rising sea levels and losing coastal cities. Do you know how much land has eroded in an island nation like Tuvalu over the last 50 years?
I’m not sure how we have blown the environment. We are much better stewards of the environment than anytime in history. At least nations in the wealthy west. Maybe not so much in poorer nations.
Can’t see it happening soon whose going to be the Ballsy GM to pay his player more then the best player on the planet.
If someone had asked you a year ago what Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be making (cap hit) in 2019-20 would you have said $11.5M+?
Who could possibly top these guys? Gaudreau? Barkov? Marner? Point? 7 years is a long time. I’d be shocked if it took more than 2 or 3 years for someone to sign a deal north of $12.5.
Holland hasn’t done anything to win now. I like the Lucic trade, but adding Neal maybe improves the team slightly. The only way this team improves from last year is if the rookies come in and make a big difference. This is unlikely. And none of the rookies were acquired by Holland.
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree here. I also have no idea what Katz has to do with the earlier discussion.
I’m not sure which specific models you are referring to, but a major report put out by the UN suggests that climate disaster is a distinct possibility, amongst a range of several, all of which depend on our collective ability to reduce the rate at which the temperature is currently rising.
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports.shtml
My background is not in climate science. I am deferring to experts.
It seems to me that losing coastal cities to rising sea levels, rendering large swaths of the planet uninhabitable, and losing entire ecosystems is a big deal. The link above discusses increased wildfires and food shortages as other grave consequences.
If you are 30 or younger, this will affect you in your lifetime.
If you are 30-50, this will affect your children. If you are 50 plus, your grandchildren will be affected.
The extent to which politicians, business people, and most ordinary citizens simply don’t care is astonishing.
If you can’t have a cottage in the Okanagan or a fancy car or you miss a couple vacations over your lifetime…who cares?
I find it comical that people laid down their lives in the world wars for future generations, and that today the spoiled, entitled people who benefited from that sacrifice can’t be bothered to budge an inch on the inconsequential, wasteful luxuries that are ruining the planet.
They are all singed for a long time so it won’t be them. Who will it be. I can’t think of anyone. McKinnon, Hall, the RFAs this year. Kucherov (not in Tampa). Crosby on a few year deal maybe. All the big fish are signed for a while. Seriously, take a stab at a few. Bet you can’t do it other than Crosby.
Pre-cap that type of deal wouldn’t have the same type of value due to not requiring value contracts.
Not to mention, the Oilers wouldn’t be in the position they have been the last few years as they are largely due to cap restraints. They have Katz, willing to spend, the terrible Lucic and other deals would have very little effect as they could have bought other players – they could/would have been in play for all sorts of top tier free agents and, if a few missed, oh well, just Katz’s money, get get another.
There’s no chance it takes 7 yrs for someone to top $12.5M. I don’t know who it will be either, but did you think Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be within $1M of McDavid right now?
I was going to ask you for an example that was plausible and that’s pretty good. It requires MacKinnon being on an extreme value 2nd deal, but it is possible.
That said, I still think it was much easier to pull something like this off pre cap. The value of high end ELC players has been amplified BECAUSE of the cap every bit as much as because these young players are better than they were 20 yrs ago.
I think a superstar return HAS to be largely ELC players and picks in the cap era. Before that it mattered far less if part of the return was a 25 or 26 year old so long as the team wasn’t cash poor.
Sure, always is a long time (well, duh, always; LOL, typical athletic writing). Anyways, I actually think it will be a while (7 years at least) till someone is above 12.5. Who will be above 12.5 anytime soon? Noone can think of.
I am of the boomer generation and you are correct, we have blown the environment in the chase of ROI, but so have have prior generations, and I suspect yours will also, if history repeats itself. Having said that I wish and support your efforts to turn the tide for the sake of my grand children.
I don’t disagree with alot of your post and will confess to not reading the article at the time of this reply but the GM would have to find the right team with the right set of assets.
I don’t know, this past off-season, pre-draft:
Mackinnon, Makar, OTT first (Girard, Jost options as well)
But what single team has this wealth of ELC talent?
Problem two, and I think the real issue, is that the cost controlled window of that talent closes so fast now.
Matthews makes 93% what McDavid does. Eichel makes 80%. Marner, Point, Rantanen, Laine, Tkachuk will be making in the same range very soon. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions whether those contracts are/will be value relative to McDavid’s.
I guess it’s theoretically possible to get a 1 or 2 year window of young players in return for McDavid but it can never last. And even then I’m not sure a single team can amass enough talent in a tight enough window to make it realistic.
I found this article pretty informative, and I’m sure it shaped my thinking on McDavid and his contract. His is basically the ultimate value deal where the best player in the game will soon be well down on the list of highest salaries. https://theathletic.com/1062436/2019/07/04/the-price-of-a-win-and-why-it-means-connor-mcdavid-wont-always-be-the-nhls-highest-paid-player/?redirected=1
These have made my day.
Except nobody has that crystal ball. When you have the world’s best player or any younger proven impact player trading them is like betting your house in Vegas and spinning the wheel.
Taking smaller gambles on emerging players in the system that are identified as not a fit or unliked, for a player identified on another team as worthy of the risk makes sense.
I don’t see anything but bottom roster cheap hole filler UFAs being in the oilers future.
Buying expensive decline rarely works out as we have seen. I think we’ll see trades for helpful players with some highway ahead of them and promotions.
I also don’t see value in bringing in really one dimensional slowish offensive types. Sure the Oilers didn’t score enough, but O and D aren’t separate in reality. When the team isn’t playing the system for whatever reason attack declines and defend increases. All stats suffer.
The biggest issues they face is weaknesses in having a RC that can be relied upon by the coach taking faceoffs and keeping head above water, and a capable partner for Nurse or Klef.
Maybe that happens, and either internally or externally I think the balance pic would reveal.
As Ricki is saying almost all teams are ‘unsuccessful’, it’s about getting in position for a Lloyd Christmas chance. Every season. Balance does that especially when elite players are already in place.
I disagree – I think its more “helpful” in the cap world given the importance of having material players on value contracts. In the current NHL, there is high end and elite scoring from ELC players – the wealth of young, cost controlled talent that should be acquirable would be massive.
I would predict less than playing LD.
Tippett will coach to win the game, each and every night.
Holland has done what he thinks he can to reasonably improve the team this year in conjunction with, not making moves that will risk future improvement and also taking steps to set the team up for the future improvement.
Tippett will do his job which is 100% to win now.
Holland has done his job which includes both winning now but also looking to the future.
Don’t really disagree, however, until those d-men “prove it” we don’t know for sure and there is risk.
The flames showed that running a few rookies on the 3rd pairing can work.
To me, if we are running a two rookie pairing, I want it anchored by Lagesson.
I don’t know why, he scored 20 points last season IIRC. All the prices should be plummeting as we approach camp in any case.
I too believe this team can split McDavid and Drai and go with a three center set but I can’t get on board with “pencilling” Nygard in to top 6, let alone the top line. We aren’t even sure he’s an NHL player at this poitn. If the premise is “speed” to keep up with McDavid, I don’t agree as I don’t think speed is necessary – offensive IQ – timing, ability to create space, knowing how to get McDavid the puck with speed – those are the requirements.
To me, the 3C set is more contingent on Benson being able to play left wing in the top 6.
With that said, interesting 2nd line with both Chia and Neal on their off-wings. I would love to find a way to have Neal on the right side in the top 6 as he’s simply a better scorer from that side and it would likely make him more comfortable from the start. With Chiasson on his off-wing, that would be too shooters set up to rip home Drai passes.
Mama Kass is on a contract year he’ll be going hard and my eyeballs say he’s opening up ice for Leon and Connor just as Maroon did. I’m all aboard the kass gets 20 train toot toot.
6 weeks ago Lingberg was very high on my list.
He’s out of our current price bracket though I believe.
Yes, I’m sure he’s coming down off whatever his original demand were but he’s in a higher tier than the others.
Sports is, to some (many) a form of entertainment that, from them, is part of their enjoyment of life, to many a main or primary factor in the enjoyment of life. If one is not trying to “enjoy life”, what are they doing.
Sports are one of the main factors that help me enjoy life and I don’t have them in my life to avert “real life” – they are part of my real life, a significant part.
I don’t know if I can agree that “redundant” is the right word.
Secondary and tertiary scoring remain a concern, even if Neal does bounce back to 15-20 (or even 20–25) and while that bounce back is a reasonable bet, its far from a certainty.
Additional scoring from the likes of Vanek would be helpful.
At the same time, to the point, its probably unlikely that the roster can sustain another player with his “limitations”.
Rich M,
Nicely done. A fascinating list! Canadian teams are looking pretty sad here.
If you’re going since the strike year (04-05) – longest to shortest and never’s (edited):
Toronto – 52 years (1967)
Philthadelphia – 44 years (1975)
NY Islanders – 36 years (83)
Phelghms – 30 years (89)
Oilers – 29 years (90)
Montreal – 26 years (93)
NY Rangers – 25 years (94)
Dallas (nee Minnesota) – 20 years (99)
Colorado – 18 years (01)
New Jersey – 16 years (03)
Tampa – 15 years (04)
Buffalo – never (entered in 1970)
Vancouver – never (entered in 1970)
From the WHA: Arizona (nee Winnipeg).
After that, you’re getting into the teams that came into the league in the 90’s.
There are very few situation when I won’t make smart decision. I am analytical by nature, and an analyst by trade. I like facts, and useing those facts to make smart decisions that set me up for success and long-term welbeing.
Taylor Hall is the exception. I know it’s not smart. I know there are better, younger, cheaper, more-longterm fits on the wings for the Oilers.
Doesn’t matter.
Taylor Hall was supposed to be drafted an Oiler, play his whole career here, and then retire an Oiler.
We got part 1 right. Chia f****d up part 2, and for that he’s held in the same esteem as Peter Puck, the guy who created telemarketing and people who stand and won’t walk up the left side of escalators.
Holland still has a chance to get part 3 right.
If he brings back Hall and keeps him here through retirement I will be thrilled.
Damn the money. Hall is an Oiler. Make it so.
In the cap world it’s much much more difficult to turn any McDavid return into a Stanley Cup than it was with Lindros trade for instance. What am I missing?
Is that verifiable through multi-variable analysis?
Yes, the 4-6 part of the Oilers top 6 was ugly, though the 1-3 part was spectacular, so scoring wise it was close to a wash I think.
I agree the GA part is the major area for growth, but in the top 6 too. McDavid GF/GA rates by year:
15-16 3.39 3.30 50.7%
16-17 3.51 2.14 62.1%
17-18 3.62 2.72 57.0%
18-19 3.39 3.30 50.7%
The GA is what cratered McDavid’s GF% last year (funny it’s identical to his rookie year). His line getting back to ~2.5 GA/60 would make a massive difference to this team.
In terms of speed precluding the addition of veterans, I agree to an extent. But I feel like adding an experienced C is the exception given the lack of internal options available, foot speed be damned. Who’s going to play 3C and 4C?
Haas – may not be an NHLer
Marody – unproven, speed the main question mark
Khaira – not a regular C (and very limited success in the middle at the NHL level)
Gagner – not a regular C, and not fast
Granlund – not a regular C
Cave – not slow but hasn’t been able to score and likely a tweener
Brodziak – slow and likely done
Holland talked repeatedly about a 3C being one of the things he wanted to add this summer. I think some kind of reliable option trumps foot speed in this case. But JMO obviously.
Another little known fact is that Mark Fistric is demonstrably an elite level climatologist.
How so?
I have zero concern about McDavid not finishing his current contract with the Oilers.
Not to mention that, in the cap world, a Connor McDavid trade done properly in the next few years (with term left on that contract), likely brings the team closer to the Stanley Cup.
I