I’ve watched Mike Smith for years, he’s an interesting goaltender. A gigantic human, he’s also very active (most nervous energy athlete I’ve ever seen: Steve Rogers) and tends to be involved, even overinvolved if that’s a word.
Oilers fans don’t care on this crisp Thursday morning. Mike Smith is suddenly wildly popular in good old our town. All he had to do is stop a mountain of rubber and grab a handsome dollop of good luck.
As for Leon Draisaitl, the big German train ran on time, ran over the Canucks, ran the show and leads the NHL in scoring. Hockey is back, and the Oilers best players appear to be better than ever.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: No need to temper expectations after Connor McDavid’s season debut for Oilers
- Lowetide: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: At home with Ken Holland: Packing away the championship memories and preparing for a new challenge
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s fast start leads the way for Oilers prospects as 2019-20 gets underway
- Lowetide: Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas bid for final Oilers spots during a strange game in Calgary
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: An educated guess at the Oilers’ opening-night roster
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
- Jonathan Willis: Ethan Bear, Tomas Jurco outshine the competition in second-to-last Oilers preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Joakim Nygard managing his anger as he eyes spot on Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Assessing the Oilers’ roster as the final positional battles are sorted out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers cut Evan Bouchard and Shane Starrett. Is Ethan Bear on the cusp of making the team?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
- Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
Oilers in October
- Oilers in October 2015: 0-1-0, goal differential -2
- Oilers in October 2016: 1-0-0, goal differential +3
- Oilers in October 2017: 1-0-0, goal differential +3
- Oilers in October 2018: 0-1-0, goal differential -3
- Oilers in October 2019: 1-0-0, goal differential +1
Too soon to know, but wins are better than losses (hey, you come here for the truth) and there were some positives from last night.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game
I mentioned yesterday that six of the first 10 games were winnable, but I thought Vancouver would win last night. That’s a team on the rise. Edmonton has a chance to cash two more points against the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday.
LAST NIGHT’S GAME
The healthy scratches were Tomas Jurco, Brendan Manning and Patrick Russell. NHL.com summary and Natural Stat Trick numbers are fascinating. Here we go, all numbers five-on-five unless otherwise specified.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian. Trio spent 6:45 together, 6-4 Corsi, 2-4 shots, 2-0 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Poor Dave Tippett. He tried to split up the caped crusaders but that lasted like a snowflake in a hot place. Six points for the three, all of them scored, nine shots in all disciplines.
Draisaitl won both four-on-five faceoffs he took shorthanded. He played 26 minutes all-in, was an absolute bull (if a bull had velvet hands). McDavid looked human for much of the night (the Nygard experiment wasn’t working) but his winning goal was the stuff of Gods. Holy crap what a burst. Kassian, and I mentioned this, is playing the best hockey of his life. In two crucial game moments it was Kassian (deft pass to Leon, rocket shelf to tie 2-2) who used his skill to win the day. Honestly, it looks like Kassian has opened up another chamber here.
LINE 2 Leon Draisaitl-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Zack Kassian played 6:45 together, 6-4 Corsi, 4-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-2 HDSC.
Nuge had a fine night, didn’t get any points and played a secondary role once placed on the Nygard-Neal line (1-1 in 1:40, 1-0 shots). Played 21:43, 2TK, 2GV, one high danger chance.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Colby Cave-Josh Archibald played 7:16, going 7-17 Corsi, 4-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.
Khaira had a shot, blocked shot and plenty of PK time. Puck got caught in his skates early and he couldn’t locate (Pettersson got a chance) and he was indecisive in his own zone a couple of times. Cave played well, he got 11:10 at evens that’s a lot of time. Archibald had two giveaways, the second of which resulted in the go-ahead goal for Vancouver. Mistakes happen but that can’t occur often for the checking line.
LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 2:01, 0-2 Corsi and didn’t get a lot done. Coach Tippett didn’t call on them often.
I swear I’m going to rewatch the game and specifically look for Granlund, he’s a ghost at five-on-five. Haas played just 2:11, he did drive to the net on a pass through to the slot, it looked dangerous but didn’t cash. Chiasson played 10:41 total, had two shots, whiffed on a dandy pass in the slot from Leon and was so close on a PP goalmouth chance.
Joakim Nygard had one great chance, a fine pass from James Neal sent him away. He had two shots, two hits (one rattled the boards) and needs to skate in straight lines. Neal was quality to my eye, physical, good passes, interrupted sorties. Had two shots (one nice chance via a Nuge pass) but his passing is what I noticed.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson played 15:19, going 7-25 Corsi, 4-12 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC. Had a helluva time with the Miller-Horvat-Pearson trio (1-12 Corsi against Horvat) and were not sharp on breakouts. Although they weren’t alone in trying to hit the clock with alley oop passes, it got old in a hurry.
Nurse had an assist, played 26 minutes and that included 3:20 PK and 1:19 PP. Larsson blocked a shot late and it looked painful as hell, played almost 22 minutes with plenty of PK time. He could help himself with better passing. This pairing needs to get the puck going north, it’s a miracle no one scored on them last night. Nurse went 2-9 against Pettersson, but the Oilers scored when the two men were on the ice together.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Ethan Bear played 11:37 and went 10-8 Corsi, 7-3 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC. Both men finished -1 but were not together for their GA (Kris Russell both times).
Oscar Klefbom had six shot attempts, played 23:46 and spent over seven minutes against the Pettersson-Ferland-Boeser line. Exceptional passing, calm feet, rocking chair. I liked Bear’s game, although it appeared the second goal was tipped by his mark (Bear didn’t tie up his stick). Bear’s outlet passing was on display and hopefully represents the future of Oilers defense.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 9:29, going 9-9 Corsi, 5-2 shots and 1-0 goals, 1-2 HDSC.
Kris Russell had two giveaways, two blocked shots and spent most of the night without the puck. Structure took the bus when he was out there, and he screened the goalie on the first goal. Matt Benning had a solid game to my eye, two assists, +3, moved the puck well and showed offensive flair.
Mike Smith was splendid in goal, outstanding saves in waves. Dave Tippett is a better man than I am, so he’ll probably run Koskinen out there on Saturday. I’d go with Smith. Stopped 31 of 33, .969 save percentage. Stopped seven of eight HDSC’s. Man. That was a helluva game by the big man. Fantastic saves off Pettersson, Ferland, Miller.
TIPPETT’S DEPLOYMENT
I wanted to look at how Tippett handled the minutes against Pettersson, and it is fascinating. Here are Pettersson’s minutes at five-on-five against Edmonton’s defensemen:
- Darnell Nurse 6:51, 9-2 Corsi, 0-1 goals
- Ethan Bear 5:24, 5-4 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Adam Larsson 5:07, 9-2 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Oscar Klefbom 4:46, 5-5 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Kris Russell 3:55, 4-3 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Matt Benning 2:52, 4-4 Corsi, 0-1 goals
And now the centers:
- Colby Cave 5:01, 11-3 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Connor McDavid 4:43, 3-2 Corsi, 0-1 goals
- Nuge 4:21, 2-5 Corsi, 0-0 goals
- Gaetan Haas 0:24, 2-0 Corsi, 0-0 goals
So, my take is that Tippett was content to run either of the top two pairs against Pettersson, and really Russell, too. Travis Green appears to have been trying to get his best player out against Colby Cave, and Cave got caved, but it didn’t result in any goals. I think Pettersson-Cave is the only thing resembling a hard match, and it’s stretching it to suggest it was a real effort (more like preference). Tippett obliged, it looks like he wasn’t so much worried about matching than playing the hell out of his best players. He won. Needs 45 more. I know he’s planning on using his star players less, but McLellan and Hitchcock had plans, too.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning, TSN1260, with two of my favourite guests. We get underway at 10, with Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance stopping in at 10:20. We’ll talk mlb playoffs and the inevitably of the Astros. Frank Seravalli from TSN chimes in at 11, we’ll talk about the opening night NHL action and what to expect this coming season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
He sucks
This is actually my preferred alignment but it necessitates a philosophical shift for Coach T as there is NO shutdown pairing and now three puck-moving pairs. That is closer to the brand of hockey I prefer and may work for a bit but (and I know this is foolish to contemplate at this point) it is not well suited, IMHO, for NHL playoff hockey. I consider that a tomorrow problem and hope this is how things shake out.
You do realize:
I have stated that GA is dmen to their side.
And
Save% from goalie relative to baseline established.
I list 2 evga/60
When he was #2 evga/60
Cause he was in a 2D-1G system and elite to his side.
Simple look at video shows 2 dmen defending.
Holy fuck Manning was #1
Same video evidence.
Then I show manning paired with a top HD dman to his side generates elite evga/60
Video evidence 2D defending.
Talk of video evidence and structure that dictates absence of hybrid players called rovers.
See Larssons numbers climb.
All simple video review.
Showing failure to side.
I even suggested a little self training by watching def break down over last 2 years.
In step by step sequence.
It is enlightening.
All multivariable break down of def structure.
That a simple evga/60 number can show.
I am sorry you do not have the ability to organize simple multivariable theory.
Or
To lazy to follow the instructions to enlightenment.
It is as simple as going to Nat stat trick.
1. Select individual
-Filter by
year
Even strength
Rates
Skater
492 ev min( top12 fwd( ( top 7 d) ( approx 589)
The look at
-evg/60
– eva/60
-Evp/60
Right away you will say
“Almost every dman sucks offensively.”
“The top 9 fwds need to have the puck.”
2. Make a list of top 60 dmen.
With thier skater ranks.
3. Select on ice
– filter by
Year
Even strength
Rates
Defencemen
657 min ( top 6 d) (approx 186)
-Look at evga/60
Remember a simple set of fwd, d, skater filter gf and ga/60 establishes evga/60 median
Approx 2.64 evga/60 last 2 season.
-Look at evga/60 rank of top Off dmen.
-Make note of the dmen with evga/60 below 2.64/60
– Look at attacking structure of the
-low evga/60 dmen
– High evga/60 dmen.
4th/5th attacking option vs Rover HD abandonment
I have done this for more than a decade.
Constantly post these numbers.
It is simple pattern recognition thru video and data.
Lead farmer it is common sense.
A single number shows us.
Cause you should have the mental smarts to take the structure Video to see we’re the failure is.
It has to be video.
Not (“false eye affect”) memory.
Plus it lets you track baseline ( Belichek and me) play.
I expect everyone to think at this grade 5 pattern recognition level.
Lead you seem to think everything in binary.
Sorry but I do not have a blog to show the video break down of the repeat structures.
One educational Dman is Giordano.
His game has become a 4/5th attacking dman with a lot less HD area abandonment.
But he has proven you can still be a bottom open HD sh dman to his side.
20 worst last 5 years.
But as a Dpair we see better evga/60 from him.
So Lucic in his first game as a Flame decides to take exception to someone taking “a run at” someone….
What a POS he was as an Oiler.
It was an unforced error when you pair the buyout to signing Chiasson imo.
Thanks for that. Gave me a good chuckle.
Ok. Your first post read a lot more like a criticism of the coach than the roster. Roster – yes, RHD was already vulnerable, and now we are here.
I suppose their is the chance that happens however the “it was an unforced error” narative is highly debatable and some are stating it like its an absolute fact.
haha. I must have typed that post with Woodguy’s phone.
I don’t have time right now, but a cursory look at last year suggests the shot metrics were better with Smith than Rittich.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=CGY&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
The problem with the Sekera buyout this year is that he still had two years on his contract, so his cap hit stays on for 4 seasons.
Yes, I would have done the buyout of Sekera next season and Gagner this season while forgoing signing Chiasson.
There are always opportunities to play d during the season with injuries etc.
There’s also the chance that Sekera’s value rebounds this year a bit and you could have traded him next year with salary retained.
But he did some real intimidating!
I wonder if he sits at the head of the table.
Was thinking the same thing, lots of dump it to the neutral zone and watch it come back…
You are confused. 6.5 is a larger number than 2.5.
Your plan had 4 million less to add a player next year.
Edit unless you planned to buyout Rej next year also.
This pkan either way blocks a space to give at bats to players like Bear. Their are 4 D that they need to make a decision on this summer.
Ryan,
Wondered about Smith.
He Russell’s the puck out a lot by eye. Would love to see team shot metrics with him playing vs on the bench with the other goalie playing.
Typo alert!
“That play, the one in the photo, is now 18 months old, and Bear has done a lot of developing since then, one and off the ice. ”
Wyshinski with an interesting (and sensible IMO) stratification of NHL teams over at ESPN.com.
Spoiler alert – we can look to it and claim the “Oilers are in a tier of their own”
Holland’s paper transaction is part of his job. How on Earth is it an “insane waste of time” and whose time is being wasted exactly? You make it seem as if there are many different opinions around this move and lots of discussion that can come from this so, in that case, care to elaborate why you think this is such an enormous waste of time and whose time is being wasted?
IMO, Holland is just doing his job here and it benefits the Oilers, objectively speaking. If that makes me a Kool-Aid drinker for pointing this out, I’m not sure what to tell you.
Yes, Maidstone. They wheeled the television into the gym at good old MHS! I remember that series like it was yesterday.
People are free to come and go, this place is here when people have an urge to drop in. Doors open, but people have their reasons for not popping in, and I respect it.
New for The Athletic: A shift-by-shift analysis of Ethan Bear in the Oilers’ season opener
https://theathletic.com/1265651/2019/10/04/lowetide-a-shift-by-shift-analysis-of-ethan-bear-in-the-oilers-season-opener/
Is trying to win the opening faceoff a waste? It probably won’t matter to the outcome, but there’s a small chance it might.
I see this $175k as exactly the same. Maybe more players get injured and the extra space gets used. Probably not. But shit, you’ve gotta cover all your bases the best you can. Why the hell would you not?
Unless you want me accusing you of being an Oilers Kool-aid drinker every post, please stop this.
There has to be many points of view presented and discussed for things to progress.
I don’t have to agree with people’s opinions to respect them. But when you post something like this, it takes away any differing opinions validation and panders to the authority of popular opinion.
Nice “no true Scotsman.”
So Chia’s shitty trades were just h learning the ins and outs of NHL trade regs?
It’s a waste of time if you’re not going to use that cap anyway. If it was a million? Or Larsson was done for the season? Sure.
Our true measure of Dave and Ken will be if nothing improves or starts to go wrong. That’s when people revert to who they are.
Do you remember part of the reason why the Oilers suck?
Playing players in off positions above their capability.
My main problem here is the verbal from all three coaches we’ve had in the last two years has been very similar. Two are vilified. The new guy gets a lot of leash because he’s new, right?
I posted the other day. It’s not the coaches. It’s the roster.
It’s been said here. Rookie or not, if we have a player better than Russell, then he should play. But I was told in no uncertain terms earlier in the thread that this was a purely paper transaction.
Draisaitl’s reign as top scorer in the NHL didn’t last long.
Neither did Benning’s reign as top defenseman.
One of these guys will challenge for the top spot all season long – I’ll let you decide which one that will be.
This is an excellent take, IMO.
To your last point, I was hoping each of Jones, Persson, Lagesson and Bear would get ~20 games each this season in order to find out what we have in each, but it looks like we’ll see some of them for more than that. We probably can’t keep all 4 players beyond this year as they all lose their waiver eligibility next summer, so it’s critical that the management team has as much information as possible before making a decision about which ones to keep and which to trade for young wingers.
Larsson’s injury might well be a blessing in disguise for this reason.
Lucic -1 with 17 pims and no shots in his first game. Hahahah
Don’t you know?
No one resigns with the oilers.
Except for when they do.
‘New York is big but this is Biggar” Best town slogan ever.
I wonder if the Oilers retained Ed Olczyk?
kgo,
Why wouldn’t he sign here?
Just re-watched last night’s game mainly focusing on the bubble players…warning, the following analysis is eye test only…no stats to support….
– Gaetan Haas look really good in his 4 minutes. He had two nasty takeaways, and covered well defensively when his dman pinched. Although he’s a bit “swoopy”, and I noticed him on the wrong side of the puck for an instant just outside the oilers blueline. I think we’ve got a solid player there.
– Granlund better wake tf up quick because he sure looks like the odd man out based on preseason and game 1. Him and Chaisson were getting the dregs when Haas got sat, then Tippet bumped him up to play with Neal and Nuge for one shift, and quickly replaced him with Nygard.
– Khaira and Archibald, if you remove the 2 or 3 glaring errors well documented here, they actually played pretty solid responsible games with flashes of offence. Cave is the ideal 13th forward…#5C
– Smith’s puck skills are incredibly valuable…but I noticed he overplayed the shot on the 2nd goal, he moved his paddle in an attempt to direct the shot into the corner and opened his 5hole for the deflection….if his stick remained stationary and the puck wasn’t deflected it would have hit his left pad and the rebound would have been ugly so I can’t really blame him…probably Bear’s only error on the night in not tying up pearson’s stick….as Bear matures I think we’ll see a well timed cross check to the numbers on that play.
-McDavid looked rusty, no wonder he wanted 2 pre-season games.
– Larsson’s injury might just be a blessing in disguise in that Bear will stay up when Persson returns, and it hopefully adds another excellent passer into the RHD slot (Bouchard or Persson) I doubt Russel gets more than 1 game on the right side unless Manning is swapped for Laggeson or Jones. Don’t get me wrong, I love Larsson’s heart and grit, but he’s not resigning here in 2 years so we may as well develop his internal replacement in the early part of this season…
Ryan,
Well I care about your opinions, no one cares about mine!!!!
Does anyone know why Brodziak hasn’t been placed on LTIR?
Woodguy does make appearances from time to time still.
Twitter is the best place to find him.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Woodguy55
The problem with the prolific / influential posters is that they don’t know how to pace themselves which results in burnout. 😉 then they reach a point where they pace themselves too well or move to twitter.
Seriously though, I think ultimately the problem is that for some posters many people actually value their opinions and want to know what they think about various hockey-related issues. This draws them into time-consuming debates / pulling data to support their opinions.
Fortunately for me no one really cares about my opinions or what I think, so I don’t have deal with that issue.
Lots of good posters over the years have slipped away though many still drop in from time to time.
Oiler fans can never be pleased. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
yes indeed.
Lowetide,
LT, you should ask him to rejoin the conversation, he is one of the reasons I have followed the blog for years
Hey LT, we were just having a little trip down memory lane. Canada Russia 1972, watching games on TV while at school.
Where were you in 72? (besides up the road in Maidstone. I was in Biggar) What are your recollections of the series?
Why is it an insane waste of time? It’s merely a paper transaction, doesn’t hurt anyone. And wouldn’t you want an administration that is aware of all details and loopholes and willing to use all options, rather than one that doesn’t bother or, worse, doesn’t know?
He called me on the phone this evening, we had a nice chat. He’s been working hard but remains a fan of the hockey. And math. LOVES the hockey math.
Jethro Tull,
Jethro wouldn’t it be a good time to bring in rookies when all the teams are sort of trying to find their way?
He’s not posting much there.
It’s pretty understandable to at least consider it since his alternative is two rookies…in the 2nd game. Maybe if this were game 40 he keeps Russell on the left. He may yet still in game 2. I wouldn’t bury him for reviewing options.
Watched the last half. Lucic punched a big Russian (Dadorov?) in the face a couple times after he had hit Czarnik. Was only half paying attention so I’m not sure what he got for it but wouldn’t be surprised if he got an instigator and a 5.
buffalobill,
By the way, love the name!!!!!!!
Jethro Tull,
That’s why I said bring in the rookies, sink or swim. We have to get these guys games and this is the best time
We’ve got a coach that preached the importance of D playing their correct hand sides considering playing Kris Russell of his off side.
It’s the second game of the season.
Also I would put in Perrson and Bear, might as well force the rookies in to the lineup and see what they got, we might be surprised!!!!!