Mikko Koskinen has played 80 minutes in February 2020, facing 34 shots, stopping 32 (.941). His save percentage for the season is .913, that ranks No. 15 (tie) among goalies with 20 or more starts this season. His running mate, Mike Smith, is at .899 (No. 39 among 47 starters). Koskinen gave his team all the time the law would allow to get back into the game last night, but no sale.
Fans get frustrated over games like last night, but they happen to all teams. These Oilers have plenty of natural talent, but not so much of it that every night can be turned around after two periods. In a way, older Oilers fans are spoiled, because there’s always that easy memory jog back to the place where miracles were every day. That was yesterday, and yesterday’s gone.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
- Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 53 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 21-27-5, 47 points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in 2016-17: 28-17-8, 64 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2017-18: 23-26-4, 50 points; goal differential -28
- Oilers in 2018-19: 23-25-5, 51 points; goal differential -19
- Oilers in 2019-20: 28-19-6, 62 points; goal differential +5
One loss isn’t going to have much of an impact after so many good things over the first 50 games of the season. Edmonton has a nice schedule ahead this week and should be able to recover quickly. It might mean we see Tyler Benson on Thursday night.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Current 10 games: 2-1-0
It seems likely Edmonton will avoid another 3-6-1 this month. If the Oilers go 5-4-1 the rest of the way, and split games 81 and 82, the final record will be 42-31-9, 93 points. Will that be enough for the playoffs?
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2017: 0-2-0, 0 points; goal differential -3
- Oilers in February 2018: 1-0-1, three points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in February 2019: 0-0-2, two points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in February 2020: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +3
As was the case in January, the Oilers February past features no dynasties in sight. The playoff team began the month flat before heading in a better direction.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games
I had the Calgary game as a loss, with Edmonton winning in Arizona. I have wins against San Jose and Chicago on the home stand.
OILERS 2019-20
I’m not going to run the stats, the lines were a complete mess but everything you’ll want to see is here at NST. Connor McDavid was on three of them, featuring Archibald-Kassian, Drasaitl-Yamamoto and Gagner-Chiasson with 97 in the middle. Nothing rhymed.
Ethan Bear made an errant pass and the Coyotes jumped on the opportunity, Taylor Hall making a lovely pass to set up the winner. Oscar Klefbom’s shot ricko-shatted off various bones and a jailbreak later the Oilers were down 2-0.
What was missing from this game were the one or two power play goals, the aggressive forechecking that led to a turnover and a goal. Edmonton’s sorties were not effective. Dave Tippett (rightly) mentioned the three strong games played last week and confirmed the gas was on low in the desert last night. Perhaps the evening was summed up best when Leon was hit dead solid perfect by a Coyotes defender and dropped like a rock. Normally that scene plays out with Draisaitl breaking through with the puck, shrapnel everywhere. It wasn’t quite Santo and Johnny but it was close.
CURRENT STANDINGS
I think four teams make it, so the key is to stay in this gang of five. Arizona would have been in a world of hurt last night with a loss, the Coyotes played a strong game. Taylor Hall’s brilliant pass on the first goal is the kind of creativity we see from the Oilers most nights. The team in a little bit of trouble today is Calgary. A point behind the Coyotes and Vegas, with a game in hand, but the Giordano news will be massive. Puck IQ tells us he plays 38.9 percent of his five on five time against elites (Ethan Bear leads Edmonton with 36.5) so any time away will have an impact.
THE NEXT NURSE DEAL
Bob McKenzie says “talks have been progressing” between the Oilers and Darnell Nurse. The Oilers can’t sign Nurse long term so are looking for a two-year deal with the cap number starting with a $5M.
It makes sense on all kinds of levels but I think it also increases the chances that Nurse gets dealt before the next contract. The cap over the next two years is limited and there’s an expectation we’ll see a major lift by 2022-23. Edmonton will be talking extension summer 2021, and if things have changed then both sides will be dealing with the new reality. The best laid plans and all that. If a long term deal was available in the low 6’s (say six years times $6.25 million) it would set up the relationship long term. The two-year scenario comes with some risk.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will discuss last night’s game and possible deadline moves. We’ll chat MLB with Jared Diamond from the Wall Street Journal as things are heating up with trade talks. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s a gas!
Larssons value is probably not that high around the league. 4 points this year; he had a terrible year last year. He is better than Ceci but not Barrie. From the Leaves POV, I dont think the value between replacing Ceci with Larsson is worth one of the young wingers on a good contract ( Johnsson, Kapenan)
Torontos biggest issue is backup goaltending. People can say what they want about Smith ( I think Tippet likes him too much) but in the 28 games he has played in , the Oilers have 30 points. Thats decent for a backup goalie. The Leaves backup goalies have gotten 9 points in 15 games. Hence the trade last night.
I wouldnt trade Larsson for Johnsson. Id rather keep him until his contract runs out.
New for The Athletic: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
https://theathletic.com/1583678/2020/02/06/lowetide-drilling-down-on-right-handed-centres-for-the-oilers-to-target-before-the-trade-deadline/
BTW, among the league’s 199 defenders who have played more than 350 minutes at 5v5, Matt Benning ranks:
30th in P/60
16th in P1/60
6th in A1/60
1st in GF%
Yes, 1st in the entire league. I know he largely plays a 3rd pairing role, but if Holland could get him on a 3 x $2M deal right now I’d be very, very happy.
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=350&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=350&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
If its evaporating the vapor has to go somewhere.
If the climate is effecting the whiskey then that means the barrel isn’t “air tight”.
White Oak is used for barrels and while its less porous than Red Oak, its never “air tight” either.
I find this stuff interesting.
Apropos the regular chatter about trading an RHD for one of Toronto’s wingers:
Andreas Johnsson has played over 75% of his 5v5 ice time with Matthews this year.
He has two (2) 5v5 goals in 523:52 total ice time, both in the 399:00 he was with Matthews (and, for the most part, Nylander).
Thus, scoring rate
with Matthews: 0.30 G/60 (399:00)
w/o Matthews: 0.00 G/60 (124:52)
His scoring rates would put him 14th among Oilers forwards this year. And that’s while playing with Austin Matthews.
GTFO with the Adam Larsson talk.
FTFY
I think the climate has more to do with loss rates than barrel construction. The wood is carefully selected and the coopers good at what they do.
A couple thoughts:
Maybe run:
Yama- McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Drai-RNH
I think Drai’s group still gets the second best defensive focus so maybe Benson can settle in against the slightly easier competition instead of jumping into the deep end with McD.
***
With Gio possibly out for weeks or months, they may have LTIR room to grab a D until the playoffs.
Russell for Bennett or someone else in the bottom 6?
It ain’t happenin. Not without some kind of Valentine’s Day Sale.
I would be absolutely shocked if Holland added Tatar
I would not expect him to do anything other than continue to draft
I figure the conversation went something like
“Hey just wondering what you’d want for Tatar”
“Well we’d want at least a first and Broberg”
“I was worried about that well nice chat”
Friedman “Oilers are enquiring about Tatar!!!”
Re: Neal… etc.
The thing about the trade value of players is that there is still an emphasis, right or wrong, on paying for playoff performance.
If McDrai—and Holland’s chewing gum and popsickle sticks—can band-aid this team into the playoffs, then Holly’s in a much better trading position with his roster players.
Let’s say Neal hits 20 in the reg season and the Oil win a series and go deep in the quarters with Neal going on a heater for the two series…
I don’t think trading him with something retained for a mid-draft pick will present an insurmountable problem.
And I’m not saying it will take that either, I’m just laying out and example.
This plays into guys like Chiasson and Khaira and KRusty too… Get into the playoffs and shake some trees and they become more valuable in other GMs’ eyes.
We all know this has been a fragile dressing room over the years. Neal has helped that to a great degree, like Maroon before him. Smith helps too, in that regard. I don’t think there’s any chance Holland makes drastic changes, now, mid-season to that room. Bringing in a top 6 winger, or a quality 3C, or trading backup goalies would require something drastic, unless there’s a GM in love with one of our role players, and we all know that ain’t happenin’.
Stability is Holland’s mantra.
Holland will want to trade Pujo and a prospect defenseman of the Lagesson ilk at the deadline. Maybe a 1-year future pick. What will that get him?
Best part is teams ahead of them have games in hand
Skinner got the win last night as well – good to see him on the pipes. It was weird last weekend I thought when they called up Wells who backed up Starrett.
Nice to wake up and see Bouch just keep on rolling offensively. Didn’t see the game but he scooped two more assists. Not sure if he played the massive 27 minutes he did last weekend.
Bouch 6th among all AHL dmen in scoring – as a 20 year old rookie.
Interesting trade by Toronto. Kyle Clifford has some utility (played well in limited time versus elites this season via Puck IQ) and Campbell is at the very least a solid bet.
I assume this means Fredrik Andersen isn’t out long term. Otherwise it would have been a different bet.
For what it’s worth, i’m not sure about barrels but I believe in bottles they lose about 2% a year depending on cork quality.
Damn angel’s share.
Woodguy v2.0,
Time to plan the parade again! Pretty good trade though for the Leafs actually.
Does whiskey lose its alcohol % at a constant rate?
Intuitively it seems some barrels would be less sealed than others and that would effect that.
He’s about 8 years late with that news!
The @MapleLeafs have acquired goaltender Jack Campbell and forward Kyle Clifford from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for forward Trevor Moore, Columbus’ third round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and a conditional third round pick in 2021. #LeafsForever
As per Leafs PR
Ah.
I can’t wait to understand your insult!
Cask strength at 40% means the whiskey has been in the cask for about 40 years, which is doubtful. They certainly wouldn’t be selling it at $60/bottle if that was the case.
You’ve shit talked every Oilers prospect.
You don’t get a bingo if you just pour black paint on the card.
Jesse Puljujarvi
Nail Yakupov
Non-threatening grin.
Never seen it.
Its now on the list.
5 second perusal of the reviews looks good.
Campbell and Clifford.
Goalering and some toughness.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
1m
Hearing TOR/LA working on something involving Jack Campbell and Kyle Cliffoed
I left Elliotte’s typo in.
I think HH is more like Frank from the movie Frank.
People who interact with HH are Jon but Jon from different points of the movie.
Agreed, but this part of him comes from a place (loyalty) that the players really respect and appreciate. Its the easiest sin to forgive and might win him more games in the long run.
*lights cigar with $100 bills*
*gets weird hot liquid plastic dripping on skin*
Lol
Tatar is interesting. Habs did well with Petry and I wonder if the idea of playing JP with Kotkaniemi (sp?) has merit.
JP + Russell prob not enough. Depends on JPs value. Its growing!
James Neal is 2nd in the whole damn league in powerplay goals behind only David Pastrnak, I can’t believe that has no value for you.
Oh for sure, he’s been awesome.
Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some old witchcraft beliefs in there.
I wouldn’t say a peep other than Tipp himself stating that he knew they were gassed and essentially excusing their performance.
I don’t know why they were tired but my point is that Tippett himself said they were tired and were running on empty. So if you know they’re running on empty refill the tank!
Toronto loss *chef’s kiss*
Fairly well…heh.
Joe Colburne.
he was being generous
No.
But I’m going up there next week and will find out.
Cool.
Thanks.
C’mon man.
You had a grievance with the play and its fine to air the grievance.
Good stuff.
One question.
They say that cask strength is 40% to 64%.
They also say that you get 250 bottles out of a cask.
I assumed a “bottle” is 750ml. The cask is 75L so 100 bottles of “cask strength” per cask.
They say you can get 250 bottles out of a cask.
That doesn’t add up unless you’re *really* watering down the whiskey or their bottles are not 750ml.
Any ideas?
If there is one thing that I hope newer posters take away from that thread is that DSF is DSF.
He is a perpetual DSF machine. (thanks G!)
He used to annoy the shit out of me, but once I figured out he just likes to twist your titty because he likes to fight and doesn’t actually believe most of what he writes I got humour out of it and he does know hockey fairly well.
There is never a shortage of people taking the bait.
The mental gymnastics for this take is astonishing. Bear made a bad pass, despite having time and space. He literally passed the puck right to Hall, who made an incredible play. End of story. I don’t have an issue with it. Shit happens. I find it irritating that you can somehow find Kassian culpable on this goal. Also interesting that you didn’t mention Nurse for his role in the goal. His errant shot led directly to the loss of possession. And this doesn’t mean I think Nurse sucks. It’s like blaming a car manufacturer for a faulty tailight when you get caught speeding.
– Smith is demonstrably a worse goalie than Koski was last year: winning changes the narrative though. There is little analysis about how Smith’s poor play has resulted in lost points.
– Certainly last year, Koski was in hindsight a magnet for vitroil for many that really should have been on the team, and not him. Smith on a better team, performs worse than Koski did last year…
– Its an easy an inexpensive fix at the deadline IMO: won’t happen though, unless Smith’s early groin injury flares up again, and they need a back-up (or an AHL call-up)
– We are a Jordan Bennington type opportunity away from winning the cup this year: be bold Dutch
And you can’t extend Nurse until after the expansion draft. Unless you protect 8 skaters Jones is also in Seattle. Seriously if Nurse is in their plans sign him long tern. if not move him before the expansion draft.
That was SO good. The newspaper headline through the balance reference.
You read this and think I have an issue Bear? Love Bear. He’s been a revelation, but he made a bad pass even though he had time and space. It happens and I certainly have no problem with it. What irritates me is that Kassian gets called out on this forum for the goal, despite the fact Bear made a really bad play.
If one gives Nurse a two year deal, at the end of it, he will be a UFA, AND Klefbom will be a year away from UFA status.
Which means Nurse and Klefbom will both have the Oilers over a barrel.
Would be close but one more year in the ahl could have Samorukov very close if not ready for third pairing left D with Jones able to handle second pairing with Bear. Given that we have a right D ready to matriculate. It could allow the team to move Nurse after next year. Having one more year until ufa his value would still be quite high. While it is not the way I would proceed it all depends on how Holland and his management team see Nurse.
I would suggest reading the titles on some of the books….
Pretty darn close actually – couple inches if I’m stretching the truth (and my height).
What do you mean by tradeable? If they are looking to move on from him at the 2nd of a 2-year contract, we are talking about UFA rental prices and severely depressed value – not to mention, that would be “selling”, not something we are hoping to do in early 2022.
This one by our Giant Squid Overlord?
https://lowetide.ca/2015/04/13/nail-yakupov-the-richest-man-in-town/#comment-400871
https://sta.sh/01qjala6vwk2
That was brilliant.
Almost as much fun as perusing the old timey comments.
Somebody had a hate on for Cody Franson! -)
It is like some people never change.