The Edmonton Oilers are working around the edges of next fall’s AHL roster, and perhaps soon will be making some decisions on the NHL 23 as well. It’s important to keep track of everyone and to find out about the newcomers.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Scott Howson on new AHL job, Oilers’ unsung prospect and development updates
- New Lowetide: A look back at reasonable expectations and the Oilers fantastic special teams in 2019-20.
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
- Lowetide: Will Oilers drafts be less reliant on the WHL under new management?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
- Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
- Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
- Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
Recent News
Philip Broberg is staying in Sweden for another year, the organization hoping he’ll get plenty of work in all three game disciplines. He’s young but has been cast in defensive roles over the last year, important that his offensive flair has a chance to breathe. One thing we’ll be paying close attention to this fall is those special team numbers in the SHL.
Liam Fowlkes signed an AHL deal last week, he’s a RW who played for Penn State. His NHLE is 20.7, and it was 29.4 in the previous season. I don’t know that he’ll follow in the footsteps of Mark Arcobello and Josh Currie (who signed AHL deals before getting NHL contracts in the seasons that followed) but he’s a skill player and will get a chance in Bakersfield.
Yesterday, the Condors signed two more men from American International College of the ACA (NCAA Div. 1). It’a weak division but AIC has been strong for a couple of seasons. Dave Forbes played there and moved on to the NHL, but that was 1973.
Blake Christenson is a forward, 24, and scored 16-31-47 in 41 games, Janis Jaks is a righty blue, also 24, and posted 33, 6-9-15 in 2019-20.
OILERS AND CONDORS DEPTH CHART
If we take these names and sign the RFA’s (*) assumed, the holes are there but not close to a year ago. Here’s what it might look like:
- Athanasiou—McDavid—Kassian
- Nuge—Draisaitl—Yamamoto
- Nygard—(No. 3 center)—Archibald
- Neal—Khaira—Anton Slepyshev
- Extra F: Colby Cave, Patrick Russell
- Nurse—Bear
- Klefbom—Larsson
- Jones—Bouchard
- Extra D: Kris Russell
- Koskinen (No. 2 goalie)
- Traded: Chiasson, Benning
Edmonton could offload Athanasiou and sign or trade for another option on McDavid’s line, perhaps Tyler Ennis. I used Athanasiou because the assets spent indicate to me Ken Holland will sign the big, fast winger in the summer. I have Chiasson and Benning traded, it could be Larsson and Khaira instead. Now let’s see what the Condors might look like at this early stage:
- Benson—Marody—Lavoie
- Gambardella—McLeod—Maksimov
- Kuffner—Malone(UFA)—Hebig
- Safin—(No. 4 center)—Fowlkes
- Christenson
- Samorukov—Day
- Lagesson—(Second Pairing RH)
- (Third Pairing)
- Jaks
- Skinner—Wells—Rodrigue
Plenty of work today, suspect we’ll see some college signings and guys like Malone added, too.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun show with a curveball this morning, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy joins us at 10:20 to talk Oilers season, Ken Holland and special teams. Jon Willis will join us tomorrow. Johnny Avello, director at Draftkings Sportsbook will pop in to give us a state of that industry and what might happen when sports returns. Marshall Ferguson from TSN1150 and CFL.ca will chat about the delayed start to the CFL season and what lies ahead. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Draisaitl’s 23 GWP is my favorite stat that points to Hart trophy. 37 wins. He had a GWP on over 62% of the teams wins. The next most was Pastrnak’s 20GWP of 44 wins or 45%.
That’s incredible, wow.
I had to look it up… but I could have sworn there was a German officer named Kesselring on Hogan’s Heroes.
It took a lot of scrolling but near the bottom of the cast list for the entire series, there he be, Field Marshal Kesselring, 1 episode. One.
Now how the fuck can I remember such a minor character from a long forgotten TV show I watched eons ago as a kid, but I can’t remember stuff I looked up last week?
In this case, I think it was the “Field Marshal” that did it. Pretty sure it was the first time I had ever heard the term. Probably sent me scrambling for an encyclopedia. *doesthatoutrankageneral?*
In addition to Drai at 1.55 PG, we have McDavid actually beating a 1.49 P/G projection and Nuge over 0.9 P/G after an absolutely horrendous offensive start to the season playing injured.
These guys…
Just getting to LT’s piece at The Athletic from earlier today – Drai at 1.55 P/G – my goodness.
– Memorable players/teams that I saw live that were special memories:
1) Lafleur (when he was with the Nordiques, and I was at uni in Quebec City
2) The Whole Canada Cup Team at Copps Coliseum (and the KLM line for USSR), when in high-school in Hamilton
3) Bure (man was he electric with the puck)
4) Jagr
5) Tiger WIllimas when he scored a goal and rode his hockey stick
6) The U23 team coached by McL: vs Sweden: best hockey game I’ve ever seen
7) Those Oiler Dynasty teams
– Players /Teams I wished I saw live:
1) Habs dynasty Teams (any/all of them)
2) Bobby Orr
3) Gordie Howe
I saw Lafleur live in the forum in the 70’s. I am not a habs fan but he was incredible. quite surprised at how physical he was. saw Jagr as a rookie, saw and met Mr. Hockey.
Thrills all.
I met Guy LaFleur in Afghanistan is 2005, he was with a contingent of Canadian celebs (Rick Mercer, Catriona Le May.Doan and Daniel Igali). He must’ve been in his early 50’s (54- just checked) and he looked younger than his age, very fit and the size of his biceps absolutely shocked me. I thought he was a skinny guy.
Then the next morning he played ball hockey with us and he playfully “took out” the biggest guy on the court, through the makeshift boards we had set up. The man was a physical specimen.
But I have to admit, Catriona was the visitor I enjoyed seeing there the most by far. I was at a very small camp, so I wasn’t a stalker or anything, lol. She & the camp Dr, a lovely lady as well, hung out together including running laps around the camp every night (I think they stayed 3 nights). Their visit was definitely the highlight of that Tour for me.
Yup, he turned 20 in January – for most of the season he was 19.
Hence why I initially referenced it his 19/20 year old season.
Of course, you speak of what Rafferty did “as a 20 year old in college” when he didn’t even play a college game until he was 21.
At least my information is accurate and not made up.
Lots of good Oiler content in the NHLPA Player Poll released this morning:
https://www.nhlpa.com/player-poll/2019-20
Best Forward: McDavid 68% (Crosby 2nd at 14%)
One Player to Win One Game: Still Crosby at 44% (McDavid 2nd at 30%)
Any Past or Present Player they’d Pay to see: McDavid, a current player, finishes 3rd at 8% – crazy recognition for a current player. Gretz first.
Rogers’ Place with the best visitor’s dressing room – 38%
Rogers’ Place with the 2nd Best ice (2nd to the Bell Center)
Thanks for posting the link, it was an interesting diversion for a few minutes.
My thanks as well. Always fun to read. I think you missed Bobby or Mario, though. Connor 4th.
20.
Get over it.
Nope, age isn’t everything when discussing prospects be it is indeed a massive factor.
Not understanding that is how one can come to the conclusion that Raffery is more valuable than Bouchard – not even Rafferty’s mom would agree with that.
What Rafferty did in college at 21 has zero beneficial comparison value to what Kesaerling did in college at 19.
Not far off from what I suggested yesterday might happen when our host speculated about a $60 mil cap. Spread the dip over time while keeping the cap at a steady number until everybody has been made whole.
Ethan Bear is an established NHL top 4 right shot d-man at 22 years of age.
Brogan Rafferty is a 25 year old AHL d-man.
What are we comparing here?
Ooop, I see HH posted the LeBrun piece link earlier – missed that, sorry.
Lots of talk recently about next year’s cap and how much it might potentially drop and compliance buyouts – of course all speculation but that’s all we can do right now.
LeBrun is the man on this stuff and I encourage all to read his piece today:
https://theathletic.com/1712134/2020/03/31/lebrun-how-the-nhl-and-nhlpa-could-approach-labour-talks-from-a-long-term-view/?source=twittered
I think there will be a highly negotiated nuanced “solution” – LeBrun paraphrased the thought of one anonymous agent which is includes setting next year’s cap in the context of a new CBA.
The potential to set the cap at $81.5M or maybe even higher but not just for next year but the next 6 years with escrow set at say 10%. That would give time for the owners to get back the $500M they are owned from this season (half the projected $1B loss in revenue) with the players not giving a whack of money back and without a huge cut to the cap that simply doesn’t work.
Interesting stuff.
You know what happens when you assume, don’t you?
Think I’ll just watch and see how it plays out.
Harperʻs hair in on 20/77 posts today. LT needs to buy him an extra beer for doing his job generating traffic so well today.
Not at all what I said.
You seem to think age is the only way to judge a prospect…well it isn’t.
How well a player will perform against similar competition trumps that every time.
In his first NCAA season…Rafferty scored 24 points in 40 games.
Kesselring scored 5 points in 35 games.
I would imagine if Rafferty had gone to college a year sooner he would have easily surpassed those numbers.
So let’s give Mikey a break and see how he performs in his second NCAA season.
If he surpasses 24 points, I would think you’re on to something.
OP said:
“It is indeed reasonable to wonder if Bear will repeat, regress or improve. He very well could go through a sophomore slump but there also reasons to think he could be better – natural progression at his age (22 not even close to the prime for a d-man),”
Since 22 is not even close to prime for a D man, you would think 24 going on 25 would be right in the Goldilocks zone.
How old is Brogan Rafferty again?
Is he on an ELC?…why yes he is for one more season.
Imagine that?
In fact…Ethan Bear, who by your standards is not in his prime, needs to get paid next season.
I’m sorry but that isn’t what you said at all and now you are refusing to acknowledge the incorrect information that you posted.
You posted what Rafferty did as a 21 year old as if he was 20 and asked if Kesserling will get there this year. It would actually be the 2021/22 season for Kesserling that would equate.
Kesserling was 19 this past season – at 19 Rafferty wasn’t even in college, shit, he wasn’t even in the USHL.
I think most are proceeding on the assumption that Kris Russell is not on the roster next year. I know I am.
This may be an assumption that is proven wrong in particular in light of what is happening but I am proceeding with the assumption.
In that regard, a trade of Benning would be in addition to Rusty being disposed of.
If Rusty does stay and then I agree he can be the veteran cover but hopefully he can be disposed of and cheaper cover brought in.
19/20 was used because Kesserling was 19 for most of this past season – he was 19 and playing college hockey.
When Rafferty was 19 he was playing for Coulee Region Chill of the NAHL.
When Rafferty was 20, he was not playing for Qunnipac, he was playing for the Bloomington Thunder of the USHL.
Rafferty didn’t start playing college until he was 21. Kesserling was playing college at 19, he turned 20 this year.
You mean the Rafferty who is a soon to be 25 year old player with 2 NHL games that is making Sketcher and Tanev expendable and who, in his 19/20 year old season was playing for
Coulee Region Chill of the NAHL and then in the USHL the next year while Kesserling is playing college hockey at that age?
I agree with this – the magnitude of the USHL/USDP and it being a feeder to the college has seen a massive uptick in higher end talent – at least anecdotally to me.
While the top end players generally don’t spend too many post-draft years in college, the ability to hold off on signing for 3-4 years post-draft, while they play college, leading to later-aged ELCs is likely a factor with the 2nd/3rd tier players.
Lets not forget, a CHL drafted player needs to be signed within 2 years or his rights lost (either back in the draft or a UFA depending on age).
That seems to be what’s occurring.
In a Pierre LeBrun piece at the Athletic today, an un-named but prominent players agent weighed in on how this might play out.
https://theathletic.com/1712134/2020/03/31/lebrun-how-the-nhl-and-nhlpa-could-approach-labour-talks-from-a-long-term-view/
Yes. They were sending up good smoke signals before the plague. The uncertainty next year will require a lot of short term give and take and it’s easier to bury cost and framework in a larger package that has upsides not just downsides.
Haha, solid.
Pretty much what I said.
Some players make a jump to the next level…many don’t.
Rafferty is 24 yr 10 mo old right now. He turned 21 4 months before he played a college hockey game. At age 20 Rafferty played in the USHL and scored 28 points.
Kesselring turned 20 on January 13th. He’s 20 yrs 2.5 mo old. He played in the USHL last season, aged 18/19 and scored 34 points. He’s now played a full year of college hockey, and has 4+ years to catch up to Rafferty. We’ll see, but he appears ahead of Rafferty at this point by boxcars/league.
My mind is elsewhere, so after it percolated up, I gave it all of
fivefifteen minutes.———
We don’t need no ventilation
We don’t need no breath control
No dark SARS chasm in the classroom
Teachers weave them kids a gown
Hey, teachers, weave them kids a gown
All in all it’s just another crick in the stall
All in all we’re just another crick in the stall
[Outro]
“Throng, do it again! Throng, do it again!”
“If you don’t come to meet, you can’t have any canoodling
How can you have any canoodling if you don’t come to meet?”
“Adieu, you two behind the bike shed—tanned & chill—Galahadis!”
*Children smooching*
*Phone beeping sound*
PSA walks on by.
———
Meanwhile, not in Neverland:
If you see me walking down the street
And I start to cry each time we meet
Walk on by, walk on by
Make believe
That you don’t see the tears
Just let me breath
In private ’cause each time I see you
I break down and cry
And walk on by (don’t stop)
And walk on by (don’t stop)
And walk on by
My guess is one of Benning/Russell gets traded and whoever is left is the veteran cover for Bouchard and Jones.
My money is on Benning being traded because he has no trade protection and a lower salary.
If both players are moved, then I could see Holland signing a veteran, like Green.
Haven’t heard a thing about that but I expect they might move Jake Virtanen and/or Troy Stetcher..
Both are arbitration eligible RFAs who might catch a draft pick although certainly not a first.
Benning seems focused on NCAA free agents and has already signed Marc Michaelis and says he’s close on another.
It appears Nikita Tryamkin will return from the KHL and of course they got JT Miller and Tyler Toffoli for those picks…two forwards who help right away.
You did mean to use past tense on Toffoli who is UFA. He was a rental and while an initial good investment he will go to the highest bidder July 1st. Also comparing a small right shot forward to a good skating 6.4 right shot D with offensive potential by using points is comparing apples to oranges. Keselring was a 6th round draft choice not a third round draft choice you were comparing him to. You are better than that.
Kesselring is now 6’6″ as per his comments at Development Camp.
Some real hockey news…
SJS sign a top NCAA D…a Bonnyville boy.
https://www.nhl.com/sharks/news/brinson-pasichnuk-agrees-to-join-sharks-organization/c-316447116?sf120088987=1
There are some that opine that Benning should be traded to open up a spot for Bouchard while there are others (more I think) that opine that, if Benning or Larsson are traded (to recoup a 2nd and/or a scoring forward) then a veteran depth D of some ilk needs to be brought in – that is to ensure that Bouchard is pencilled in as 4RD.
Not the Bouchard isn’t likely ready but that, if he truly is, he will earn/win that spot in short order and there is no need to open up a spot for him – depth, competition and injury cover are indeed important.
It is indeed reasonable to wonder if Bear will repeat, regress or improve. He very well could go through a sophomore slump but there also reasons to think he could be better – natural progression at his age (22 not even close to the prime for a d-man), won’t be his first time experiencing the full rigors of an NHL season, he may have some help in the top 4 (that is, he played top 4 minutes right off the bat and many as 1RD with a rookie/AHL player as 2RD, etc.).
At the point, I look forward to officially cancelling the rest of the 2019/20 season and playoff and getting on with an off-season with the plan (hope) to start the season on time.
Lets the players association and the board of governors figure out the cap situation for 2020/20 and the escrow, etc., set dates for QOs, the draft (electronic) the start of free agency and training camps.
Lets focus on 2020/21 and getting the off-season going with a view to great new season.
“You don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline.” – Dr. F
Best thing both parties could do in April is to work on a very flexible framework for the next CBA. Prior to May they’ll not be able to forecast well, but the elements they’ll need to work out for the next CBA might help them be more flexible about next year.
City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
Coach T says Nygard and Green are healthy and ready to go if/when the season resumes (as per Nugent Bowman).
That is pretty cool.
I’d agree there’s something to this as well. I also noticed more of the late round successes (home runs) were coming from Europe.
His PK was rock solid until the end but, yes, I would agree that his 5 on 5 play did indeed slip a bit.
I’m not sure it was a function of injury but more a function of playing above his pay-grade and established abilities catching up with him (and even causing him to be a bit “run down”).
Sheahan is a rock solid NHL 4C but, for almost the entire season, he was asked to play 3C – he did an admirable job punching above his established abilities.
As far as next season, taking aside the external acquisition of at 3C, I see two of Haas, Sheahan, Khaira filling the 4C and extra center slots.
Khaira is younger and signed and should be back. Out of the two unsigned UFAs, well, I’m not so sure that Haas is an NHL player and, while faster than Sheahan, he doesn’t PK (at least hasn’t at the NHL level).
Craig Button
@CraigJButton
·
2m
Some top end players in 2019 draft. Give it time. I think #2020NHLDraft is very deep with quality, well into the 2nd round & even into 3rd. Top line forwards,
Top pair defensemen, 2nd line forwards, scorers & 2nd pair defensemen as well as a #1 Goalie. I define that as quality.
With the Canucks not having picks in the first two rounds for this draft (do they qualify as making the playoffs and meeting the conditions?) whats the general idea for Benning?
What plays are expected, if any, for him to get picks back in the draft?
This is handy knowledge.
He could get his masters and start his doctorate and be younger than Bogdan Flaherty. Although he will always be an inch shorter and 8 lbs lighter
Wait a minute… I thought it was 25 lbs lighter?
Not sure why you would call a 20 year old a 19-20 year old…he’s 20.
If he plays 3 more seasons in the NCAA he will be about the same age as Rafferty.
Perhaps he will be as good, perhaps not.
In his 20 year old season at Quinnipac, Rafferty scored 24 points in 40 games.
Will be interesting to see if Kesslering can match or exceed that.
Yes, and the point is what in relation to a 19-20 year old rookie pro d-man that the organization plans on having play on college for like 3 more years?
The point is Kesselring sucks. Madden is a way better Canuck Dman.
NHL has extended mandatory team isolation period to April 15.
IHME COVID-19 Projections
Because of how this model is fit to a sigmoid with a flat-top ass-end by decree, don’t trust anything much beyond two or three weeks.
Without checking every last state, the best fit for Quebec’s present situation is Illinois. Select “Illinois” from the control and take a look. Based on today’s numbers, Quebec is tracking roughly two days behind on quick surmise.
Quebec has 66% as much population as Illinois (which implemented similar controls) so scale all the numbers to 2/3. Those extra two days will also blunt the peak a bit. Very roughly, we’re looking at 40–50 deaths/day peaking around April 16.
So hard to compare when “confirmed” and “tested” and “testing” and “as of” mean such different things in each area. Epidemiologists have to identify what each of those means in each place before they can even start comparing.
e.g. last week “confirmed” in Quebec *excluded* positives backlogged in central testing whereas this week cases are confirmed by the original lab. Meanwhile in Ontario central testing backlog exceed 10K so “as of” involves time travel. Per capita testing, testing backlogs, recent changes in test levels due to supply shortages, and current testing targets all matter as well. High positive test rates suggest mostly reporting symptomatic cases and little surveillance for community transmission.
Current Alberta context would include:
* high per capita testing before this week mostly on travelers and contacts, but including hospital testing and respiratory surveillance network
* currently conserving reagent awaiting resupply, decreasing testing of travelers and increasing surveillance efforts i.e. fewer tests, fewer cases but an increase in reporting community transmission
UPDATE: Alberta received the reagent order. And should be back to 3000+ tests per week vs. the ~ 2500 last week.
@NateSilver538
Charts showing the number of deaths are likely useful on balance, even though deaths may be underreported or misreported. But charts showing the number of detected *cases*? No, not without a *lot* of context, when epidemiologists say reporting varies by 20x across countries.
Yup, this is why Germany’s numbers look so good to date.
Kesselring played on the same team at Northeastern as Canucks prospect Tyler. Madden.
The third round pick in the 2018 draft picked up 19 goals and 37 points in 27 games played.
Err you mean LA Kings prospect?
Just a fantastic interview by Nugent-Bowman with Scott Howson posted at The Athletic.
I had posted a tidbit from a Holland interview yesterday that, while Broberg will spend another year at Skelfeeta, they want to see him at camp.
From the Nugent-Bowman/Howson piece, it seems the player himself, Broberg, really wants to come to camp and see where he is against NHL players.
Love it.
———–
Another thing from the Howson interview is the player to keep an eye on is Kesserling – I loved reading that as I think this guy is a sleeper to be a really solid broad skill guy in a few years once he’s matured and developed.
Dude, good players show themselves early. This Kesserling is no Brogan Rafferty.
OriginalPouzar,
There is too much talent there to be bailing on AA after only nine games, he is a potential 30 goal scorer. As you suggest, a summer of training under Oiler supervision, and a training camp are all he needs to become a top six player.
Of course, if a valuable asset return is out there, sure, Holland could and would move Anastathiou but, of course, it seems like a highly unlikely scenario.
Yes, AA was a bit under-whelming in his 9 games post-deadline but the key phrases there are “9 games” and “post-deadline”.
Holland gave up some assets for this player, not only for this year’s “run” but for the future, at least the next few years. This isn’t a player unknown to Holland – he knows him well and his 9 games post-deadline will not change his plan vis-a-vis this player.
I anticipate AA struggled with going from a team that was one of the worst of the generation, essentially playing out the season, and then, boom, plastered in to an intense race with a coach that demands structure and responsibility. Not to mention he was hurt in his first/second game.
I anticipate a full summer with his head as an Oiler followed by a full training camp with Tip and his staff, learning the systems/structure and what Tip/Gully require on a shift by shift basis will help this player have a better season.
Not to mention, Tip himself getting to know the player and how to get through to him and how to deploy him – that’s what Tip does best!
I’m not close enough to know what Skelfeeta’s defensive depth will look like next year but Broberg’s 14 min/game, on a very deep team that often dressed 7 d-men, was a good start.
We know that at least one d-man won’t be back (Berglund) – that opens up some PP time but, more than anything, I look for Broberg to start playing top 4 5 on 5 minutes by mid-season and PK1 – hopefully some PP2 but one thing at a time.
I sure hope the World Juniors happen as scheduled because I think he’ll play a starring role for Team Sweden.
I think that’s 3 college UFAs that Holland has added on AHL contracts – I think this is a great strategy – add some “older” skill/talent to the Condors without taking up any spots on the 50.